The Technological Singularity

THE TECHNOLOGICAL
SINGULARITY
November 30, 2015
Photocredit:OliRhttps://flic.kr/p/5u4gF
@2015, ICE, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, 30 NOVEMBER 2015

“We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise
of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this
change is the imminent creation by technology of
entities with greater-than-human intelligence.”
Vernor Vinge (1993)

TOPICS COVERED
What is the Singularity?
How is it predicted?
What are its implications?
What does it mean for human evolution?
What when it happens: Utopia or doom?
Beginnings of the Singularity
Questions that arise

WHAT IS THE SINGULARITY?
A future point in time when technology will rapidly
improve itself to surpass human intelligence, changing
human life as we know it.
Photocredit:KeoniCabralhttps://flic.kr/p/8NwP5i

CAN TECHNOLOGY REALLY
SURPASS HUMAN INTELLIGENCE?

EARLY THOUGHTS: ALAN TURING
Computer scientist, Alan Turing, predicted as early as
1950 that there would be “thinking machines.”
“I believe that at the end of the century the use of
words and general educated opinion will have altered
so much that one will be able to speak of machines
thinking without expecting to be contradicted.”
– Alan Turing
Photocredit:ElliottBrownhttps://flic.kr/p/8NhuDa

THE TURING TEST
In 1950, Alan Turing described
an Imitation Game where a
machine imitates human
behavior in a way that a human
has to decide whether they are
interacting with a machine or a
human being on the other end.
“The object of the machine is to
try to cause the interrogator to
mistakenly conclude that the
machine is the other person.”
Source: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/turing-test/
Photocredit:SteveJurvetsonhttps://flic.kr/p/5SgVL2

IMPORTANT THINKERS
Vinge
predicts the
Singularity
will occur
around 2030
Kurzweil
predicts that
we will
experience a
Singularity in
2045

HOW ARE THE DATES PREDICTED?
According to futurist, Ray Kurzwiel, we will arrive at a
Technological Singularity by the year 2045 “a point
where progress is so rapid it outstrips humans' ability
to comprehend it.”
How do futurists arrive at this date?

TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION:
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Photocredit:Ranekohttps://flic.kr/p/7puJHj

APPLYING MOORE’S LAW TO THE
SINGULARITY
Moore’s law of exponential growth in digital integrated circuits has
been extended to machines that use themselves to create newer, more
intelligent machines.
“Computing speed doubles every two subjective years of work. Two
years after Artificial Intelligences reach human equivalence, their
speed doubles. One year later, their speed doubles again. Six months
- three months - 1.5 months ... Singularity.”
Eliezer Yudkowsky (1996)

AN EXAMPLE OF
MOORE’S LAW
“Complexity of integrated circuits has
approximately doubled every year
since their introduction. Cost per
function has decreased several
thousand-fold, while system
performance and reliability have been
improved dramatically. …The
expected trends can be recombined
to see how long exponential growth
in complexity can be expected to
continue.”
Gordon E. Moore (Progress In Digital
Integrated Electronics, 1975)
Source: "Transistor Count and Moore's Law - 2011" by Wgsimon - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons -
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-_2011.svg#/media/File:Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-
_2011.svg

PARADIGM SHIFTS IN EVOLUTION
Evolution has resulted in major
paradigm shifts for humanity such as
the agricultural revolution, industrial
revolution, invention of the personal
computer, etc.
Kurzweil predicts exponential growth
will continue and in a few decades, the
computer will evolve to surpass
human intelligence and will appear as
superhuman artificial intelligence.
Chart from the book The Singularity is Near,
Ray Kurzweil

HOW WILL THIS INTELLIGENCE
EXPLOSION TAKE PLACE?
Photocredit:KevinDooleyhttps://flic.kr/p/cF3MxS

PATHS TO THE SINGULARITY -
VERNOR VINGE (1993)
1. Artificial intelligence: Computers that are “awake” and superhumanly will
be developed
2. Intelligence amplification: Human intelligence is amplified through
human-computer interfaces
3. Biomedical enhancers: The human brain is made more intelligent by
improving its neurological operation using smart drugs, etc.
4. Digital networks: A large network of computers as well as their users will
“wake up” together to be considered superhumanly
Source: https://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity.html

HARD VS. SOFT TAKE OFF
A hard takeoff is a scenario
where the artificial intelligence
rapidly improves in a short
duration, few days or even
minutes.
This scenario makes the artificial
intelligence pace of acceleration
possibly precarious and leads to
AI that is potentially “unfriendly”
to human beings.
A soft takeoff prediction is that
artificial intelligence will
gradually improve over a longer
term.
In this scenario, a gradual build
up of the artificial intelligence,
for example, reverse engineering
of the human brain, would be
completed. We can expect this to
be a more human friendly form
of AI.
Source: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/AI_takeoff

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THE SINGULARITY?
The intelligence explosion will cause a major paradigm shift
1. Human affairs as we know them cannot continue
2. A fusion of humans and computers will result in users that are
“superhumanly”
3. Humans will not be only biological but also have parts of them that
are technological, for example, some parts of the human might be
in the cloud

WHAT DOES THE SINGULARITY
MEAN FOR HUMAN EVOLUTION?

1. HUMANS WILL TRANSCEND
THEIR INTELLECT
For example, in the case of pattern recognition, the human brain can
process a couple of dozen variables, while a machine might be able
to recognize millions of variables
Further, human pattern recognition is limited to faces, speech,
sounds, etc., but machines are capable of identifying any type of
pattern
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/serge111/singularity-presentation-ray-kurzweil-at-google
Photocredit:webtreatshttps://flic.kr/p/7xptiR

2. HUMANS BECOME AN
AUGMENTED VERSION OF
THEMSELVES
For example, a human being
might be able to augment
themselves to break record
speeds in running
Photocredit:SteveJohnsonhttps://flic.kr/p/8287EH

3. HUMANS WILL CONQUER ALL
DISEASE
Since human beings will be a combination of nanobots and biological
material, it will be possible to intelligently program genes and the
human body at the cellular and sub-cellular level so as to reverse and
cure any disease
Photocredit:SurianSoosayhttps://flic.kr/p/7f5ixe

4. HUMANS WILL ACHIEVE
IMMORTALITY
Futurists believe that when we reach the
Singularity, we will be able to upload the
human mind to a computer. “Minduploading”
will ensure that human beings will have a
digital version that can live forever. Human
beings can then choose to not inhabit their
biological bodies at all, and exist in the form
of different avatars, such that there is no
distinction between reality and virtual reality.
Source: http://www.livescience.com/37499-immortality-by-2045-conference.html
Photocredit:JDHancockhttps://flic.kr/p/aJzibk

WHAT WHEN IT HAPPENS:
UTOPIA OR DOOM?

SCENARIO 1: WHERE HUMANS WILL
RULE OVER MACHINES
In this scenario, technology will
very much be “working for”
specialized needs of human
society and will be programmed
to be friendly with human
beings.
However, the machines
themselves will have few rights,
and will be only subject to work
as per human needs.
Photocredit:SteveJurvetsonhttps://flic.kr/p/kQNFcj

SCENARIO 2: WHERE MACHINES
WILL RULE OVER HUMANS
This scenario is very much like
“The Matrix” where the world is
ruled by machines and human
beings are being used of their
purposes.
It takes an extraordinary
programmer like “Neo” to
understand the machines and
find a way out.
Photocredit:Suvconhttps://flic.kr/p/7SDyce

SCENARIO 3: HUMANS
AND MACHINES LIVE IN
HARMONY
In this scenario, humans and
artificial intelligence forms will
have relationships, even romantic
relationships.
The film “Her” shows such a
scenario where a man falls in
love with his rapidly evolving
operating system, Samantha.
Photocredit:ToddHuffmanhttps://flic.kr/p/4eWXYx
Source: http://mashable.com/2014/01/15/her-singularity/

CRITICISM OF THE SINGULARITY
THEORY
1. Timescale – all technological evolution doesn’t follow the exponential
growth of Moore’s Law.
2. Artificial intelligence can never be the same as human intelligence or truly
understand human nature. 'The truth is that human intelligence can never
be replaced with machine intelligence simply because we are not
ourselves "thinking machines" in the sense in which that term is
commonly understood.‘ (Dreyfus & Dreyfus 2000)
3. History of artificial intelligence hasn’t shown as much progress as
predicted.
4. The utopic view of the new world, where hunger, pollution, disease, and
so on ends, makes the theory seem naïve in the sense that if AI were very
intelligent, it could also likely lead to a quick end of humanity.

BEGINNINGS OF THE
SINGULARITY: EXAMPLES

GENETICS, NANOTECHNOLOGY
AND ROBOTICS
The Human Genome Project
completed the mapping of
all human genes in 2001,
which has huge implications
in the field of biotechnology
and for humanity at large.
Nanotechnology has made
possible the introduction of
nano-robots or nanobots,
which can be used in
medicine to diagnose and
cure diseases, and even to
fix genetic diseases in
future.
While robots are still do not
possess artificial
intelligence in the sense of
making autonomous
decisions, they are now
being built with “symbiotic
autonomy”, which enables
them to ask for help from
humans or the Internet, and
improve themselves.
Photocredits:GiselaGiardino,MehmetPinarci,RicardoLiberato
Source: http://www.nature.com/news/robotics-ethics-of-artificial-intelligence-1.17611

SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY
Founded in 2008 by Ray Kurzweil and Peter Diamandis, backed by NASA and
Google, the Singularity University offers innovation programs that will create global
social impact. Students at the university are challenged to innovate for the world
population and to reshape the future of humanity as a whole.
Photocredit:DavidOrbanhttps://flic.kr/p/6HjP5g

GREATER TRUST IN TECHNOLOGY
Traditionally looked upon
with some suspicion, the
Bitcoin currency
collaboration technology
called blockchain is
helping people gain trust
in the service, putting the
authority of the bank as
an institution in question.
Technology platforms,
such as Uber, in the
sharing economy are now
commonly more trusted
because they cut out the
possible errors and
inconsistencies that come
with interaction with
human middle-men.
Retail ordering apps, such
as the Starbucks app, are
now becoming common
and once again are more
trusted than placing an
order with a human being.
The exact same coffee
specifications as entered
into the app is
guaranteed.
Photocredits:BTCKeychain,bfishadow,MarcoPaköeningrat
Source: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21677198-technology-
behind-bitcoin-could-transform-how-economy-works-trust-machine @2015, ICE, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, 30 NOVEMBER 2015

THE POST-HUMAN ERA IS HERE
The extension of human senses with a merger with
technology is begun with groups such as the Cyborg
Foundation (2010) starting out their research on
technology and the human body.
According to founder and cyborg Neil Harbisson, the
2020’s will see more appearance of cyborgs as well as
acceptance of them in society. Harbisson also believes
that the use of technology currently is still outside the
human body, and overtime humans will become more
open to exploration of technology inside the body.
Source: http://www.seriouswonder.com/a-conversation-on-cyborgism-interview-with-u-k-cyborg-neil-harbisson/

REVERSE ENGINEERING OF THE
HUMAN BRAIN HAS BEGUN
Researchers have already started to reverse engineer
the human brain, parts of which have been completed.
The potential to capture all of the workings of the
human mind digitally is a project that many futurists
are interested in. Apart from understanding the
workings of the human mind, there are benefits in
detecting and curing diseases like Alzheimers.
Photocredit:BrunoCordiolihttps://flic.kr/p/79Mjup

THE SIX EPOCHS: THE AFTERMATH
Kurzweil describes Six Epochs of the world. The fifth refers to the
merger of humans with technology, while the sixth epoch refers to
this fusion pervading all matter, the waking up of the entire universe.
Patterns of matter and energy in the universe become saturated with
intelligent processes and knowledge: “In the aftermath of the
Singularity, intelligence, derived from its biological origins in human
brains and its technological origins in human ingenuity, will begin to
saturate the matter and energy in its midst.” (pg 21) The universe
itself is now alive.
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/six-epochs-of-life-mural-by-nick-mayer-inspired-by-ray-kurzweil

Source:
http://www.kurzweilai.
net/six-epochs-of-life-
mural-by-nick-mayer-
inspired-by-ray-
kurzweil

QUESTIONS THAT ARISE

HUMANITY
Will humanity survive the Singularity or will it perish? Ray Kurzweil’s
view is often considered too optimistic and utopian. Vinge, on the
other hand warns us of impending doom.
"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."
- Vernor Vinge, The Coming Singularity (1993)

NATURE
In the theory of Singularity, what role does nature play? One might
argue that the technology creation comes from nature and might be
inspired by how nature created it, for example, the DNA sequence. In
the scenario where human beings cause their own self-destruction
through the rise of artificial intelligence, how do the laws of nature
factor in?
Photocredit:PavelP.https://flic.kr/p/eibt4y

SPIRITUALITY
While we approach the technological singularity, the merger of human
beings with technology will no doubt provide for new blissful and
transcendent experiences. Will the Singularity become humanity’s
ultimate spiritual union with the universe?
“Galaxies that were once dense and tightly spiraled are now quite
sparse and more relaxed in their rotation. We have ended were we
began, in the cosmos.”
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/six-epochs-of-life-mural-by-nick-mayer-inspired-by-ray-kurzweil

THANK YOU
Photocredit:OliRhttps://flic.kr/p/5u4gF
Authors:
 Apala Lahiri Chavan
 Kalika Sharma
facebook.com/uxtrendspotting
@UXTrendspotting
Interested in future trends and reports?
Write in to us at ice@humanfactors.com

The Technological Singularity

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