The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.

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Eva Ward

Presentation for Metis Data Science Bootcamp, Project Luther

Data & Analytics

Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821
The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.

Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821
The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.
Seth Godin

Wikipedia
Lists of #1 NYT bestsellers
1942-2016
Scraped using Beautiful Souphttps://www.wikipedia.org/

Goodreads
APIs
● General Search
● Author
● Book
Parsed xml using ElementTree
https://www.goodreads.com/

Totals
75 years
3900 weeks
746 unique books
241 unique authors

Numeric
Features
Books
● Number of ratings
● Number of reviews
Authors
● Number of ratings
● Average rating
● Number of reviews
● Number of fans
● Number of books as #1
● Number of weeks as #1

Categorical
Features
Books
● Repeat books
Authors
● Repeat author
● Hometown in NY
● Gender

The number of #1 NYT bestsellers has been
increasing over the past 5 decades
*projected based on data through 2016
1940s 1950s 2010s*2000s1990s1980s1970s1960s

Over 40% books spend 1 week at #1
Number of weeks at #1
Percentageofbooks

The DaVinci Code
Number of weeks at #1
Percentageofbooks

Mean rating for a book on Goodreads
3.0 5.04.0

Mean rating for a book on Goodreads
3.95
3.0 5.04.0

Mean rating for an author on Goodreads
3.0 5.04.0

Mean rating for an author on Goodreads
3.96
3.0 5.04.0

Regression
Results
Model
Adjusted R2
0.453 Low
AIC 1670 High
BIC 1700 High
Residuals
Omnibus
P(Omnibus)
137
0
0 probability
random residuals
Skew -0.925 Left
Kurtosis 5.97 2x normal

Cross Validation
Linear Regression: 0.746
Lasso: 0.746
Ridge: 0.746
Elastic Net: 0.746
Root Mean Squared Errors

3.0 5.04.0
Mean rating for a book on Goodreads
3.95
Model RMSE: 0.75

3.0 5.04.0
Mean rating for a book on Goodreads
3.95
Model RMSE: 0.75
Standard deviation: 0.25

Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821
Seth Godin

Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821
The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.
And they should stop publishing it.

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Context 1. Make Insight-informed Decisions: Clinic collected data on heart disease diagnosis and other patient information, and wants to use the data to make insight-informed decisions. Objective 2. Predict Patient’s Well-being: To identify the rules that will predict whether a patient will have heart disease in the future, based on the data collected on him/her. Strategy 3. Deploy Decision Tree Model: Create a Decision Tree Model, with rules, to predict whether a patient will have a heart disease in the future based on collected data. 3.1 To train and evaluate the model 3.2 Boost the model’s performance 3.3 Conduct predictions Author: Anthony Mok Date: 18 Nov 2023 Email: xxiaohao@yahoo.com

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原版定制【微信:153539019】《(Dalhousie毕业证书）达尔豪斯大学毕业证》【微信:153539019】成绩单、雅思、外壳、留信学历认证永久存档查询，采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。【业务选择办理准则】一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信153539019】文凭即可二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信153539019】即可三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。

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From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world. With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively. The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage. Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience. See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers See the original article on Forbes here: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b

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1. Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821 The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.

2. Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821 The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid. Seth Godin

3. Is Seth Godin right?

4. How might I find out?

5. Wikipedia Lists of #1 NYT bestsellers 1942-2016 Scraped using Beautiful Souphttps://www.wikipedia.org/

6. Goodreads APIs ● General Search ● Author ● Book Parsed xml using ElementTree https://www.goodreads.com/

7. Totals 75 years 3900 weeks 746 unique books 241 unique authors

8. Numeric Features Books ● Number of ratings ● Number of reviews Authors ● Number of ratings ● Average rating ● Number of reviews ● Number of fans ● Number of books as #1 ● Number of weeks as #1

9. Categorical Features Books ● Repeat books Authors ● Repeat author ● Hometown in NY ● Gender

10. The number of #1 NYT bestsellers has been increasing over the past 5 decades *projected based on data through 2016 1940s 1950s 2010s*2000s1990s1980s1970s1960s

11. Over 40% books spend 1 week at #1 Number of weeks at #1 Percentageofbooks

12. The DaVinci Code Number of weeks at #1 Percentageofbooks

13. Mean rating for a book on Goodreads 3.0 5.04.0

14. Mean rating for a book on Goodreads 3.95 3.0 5.04.0

15. Mean rating for an author on Goodreads 3.0 5.04.0

16. Mean rating for an author on Goodreads 3.96 3.0 5.04.0

17. What might I predict?

18. Correlation plot

19. Book’s average rating

20. Author’s average rating

21. Weeks as #1 best seller

22. Let’s try to predict a book’s rating

23. Regression Results Model Adjusted R2 0.453 Low AIC 1670 High BIC 1700 High Residuals Omnibus P(Omnibus) 137 0 0 probability random residuals Skew -0.925 Left Kurtosis 5.97 2x normal

24. Cross Validation Linear Regression: 0.746 Lasso: 0.746 Ridge: 0.746 Elastic Net: 0.746 Root Mean Squared Errors

25. Mean rating for a book on Goodreads 3.95 3.0 5.04.0

26. 3.0 5.04.0 Mean rating for a book on Goodreads 3.95 Model RMSE: 0.75

27. 3.0 5.04.0 Mean rating for a book on Goodreads 3.95 Model RMSE: 0.75 Standard deviation: 0.25

28. Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821 Seth Godin

29. Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821 The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.

30. Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821 The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid. And they should stop publishing it.

31. Source: http://bookfans.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Seth_Godin_18682.jpg?c3d821 The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid. And they should stop publishing it. Because it doesn’t mean anything.

The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.

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The New York Times Bestseller List is stupid.