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Flint: A Cautionary Tale
- 3. What happened? April 2014 City switches water source from Huron River (Detroit water system) to Flint River October 2015 City switches source back to Detroit water system
- 4. What else happened? Corrosion control not implemented Residentsโ concerns about water quality continually dismissed by MDEQ and EPA Independent studies showed alarming problem with lead โ Flint Water Study (Virginia Tech) โ Blood Lead Level (Hurley Medical Center)
- 7. Whatโs the problem with lead? Neurotoxin No safe level of exposure Can increase incidences of: โ Miscarriages โ Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder โ Learning disabilities โ Potentially violent behavior Can decrease: โ Birth weight โ IQ โ Cognitive function
- 8. Why? How? Physical infrastructure โ Aging water service lines โ Corrosivity of Flint River Mismanagement โ Undersampling โ Improper sampling protocol Socio-economic factors โ Accusations of environmental racism
- 9. We all have a lead problem.
- 10. Source: https://govex.jhu.edu/8-for-lead/ Over 70% of US housing stock was built while lead use was legal and widespread.
- 11. Source: https://govex.jhu.edu/8-for-lead/ Children with elevated blood lead levels can be found all across the county.
- 12. Assistance Program for Lead in School Drinking Water MassDEP Technical Assistance Program Funding to provide drinking water sampling and analysis for lead and copper Open to public schools, early education, and early child care facilities Since April 2016, 875 schools have participated
- 13. Over 55% of schools had at least one sample with lead concentrations above the action level. Above Below 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
- 14. Is water quality in Massachusetts related to the same issues as it was in Flint?
- 15. Can I use data about schools & public water supplies to learn what influences lead concentrations in drinking water at Massachusetts schools?
- 16. Can I use data about schools & public water supplies to learn what influences lead concentrations in drinking water at Massachusetts schools?
- 17. Schools What features might be important to predicting lead concentrations? Physical Infrastructure โ Age of building โ Value of parcel Socio-economic factors โ Environmental justice status โ Type of school
- 18. Public water supplies What features might be important to predicting lead concentrations? Physical infrastructure โ Type and size of system โ Type of source Management indicators โ MWRA โ Compliance status โ Response to lead survey
- 20. Public Water Systems 101 http://www.swaptexas.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/WaterSourcesProcess.jpg
- 21. Water systems classifications Community โ Year-round service to at least 25 year-round residents โ Ex: town water system Non-community, non-transient โ Intermittent service to at least 25 of the same people โ Ex: workplace or school Non-community, non-transient โ Intermittent service to 25 different people โ Ex: restaurant or campground Massachusetts Public Water Systems 101 Types of sources Groundwater only Surface water only Mix of groundwater and surface water
- 22. If Massachusetts has three different water system classes and three different water sources, how many different types of systems are there in the state?
- 23. Peabody Municipal community system Surface and groundwater sources Community Non-community Surface water Groundwater School - above PBAL School - below PBAL
- 24. Northfield Municipal community system Municipal non-transient non-community system Surface water and groundwater sources Community Non-community Surface water Groundwater School - above PBAL School - below PBAL Pioneer Valley Regional School Northfield Elementary School Grandin Reservoir
- 25. Chelmsford Multiple municipal community systems Groundwater sources only North Chelmsford Water District East Chelmsford Water District Chelmsford Water District Community Non-community Surface water Groundwater School - above PBAL School - below PBAL
- 27. MWRA Community system Surface water sources Community Non-community Surface water Groundwater
- 28. Lead and Copper Rule Focused on reducing corrosiveness of drinking water Requires semi-annual to annual monitoring, based on past performance Establishes Lead Action Level (PBAL) of 15 mg/L Voluntary survey conducted during Summer 2016 Federal regulation implemented by MassDEP and EPA
- 29. Schools & Public water supplies What features might be important to predicting lead concentrations? Physical infrastructure โ Age of building โ Value of parcel โ Type and size of PWS โ Type of water source Management indicators โ MWRA โ Compliance with LCR reporting โ Response to lead survey Socio-economic factors โ Environmental justice status โ Type of school
- 30. Prediction time Will a school will have at least one sample with a concentration above the lead action level?
- 31. Classification Dummy โ Most frequent KNN - grid search โ 63 neighbors โ Weighted distance Random Forest - random search โ 500 trees โ Limited to depth of 5
- 32. KNN outperformed on precision, recall, and f1 score. Random Forest KNN Dummy Precision Recall F1 Score 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.35 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.440.59
- 33. Most of the physical infrastructure features are important, while socio-economic factors are not. RFFeatureImportance
- 34. Does Massachusetts have the same issues as Flint?
- 35. MWRA influences feature importance. RFFeatureImportance
- 36. KNN accuracy peaks around 60 neighbors.