Princeton Real Estate October 2017 Market Seminar

Princeton Area
Real Estate Market Update
October 2017
Josh Wilton
Managing Broker
Weichert Realtors
Princeton Office

“
Dave Ramsey
Financial Guru
When getting help with money,
whether it is insurance, real estate or
investments you should always look for
someone with the
heart of a teacher,
not the heart of a salesman.

Agenda
The Market: The Big Picture
Understanding the Local Market(s) You’re Buying
Into or Selling Out Of
Process and Strategies for Buyers and Sellers
Agenda

What are you hearing about the market?

Economic factors
6
Now ** 2013 2010
Gas per gallon (NY area) $2.45 $3.81 $2.73
Stock market (Dow Jones) 22,773 14,776 11,578
Avg. 30-year fixed rate 4.25%* 4.43% 4.71%
Consumer confidence rating 117.7 76.2 63.4
Household income $56,516 $53,046 $49,276
Unemployment rate 4.5% 7.4% 9.3%
Foreclosures 848,609 1,369 ,405 2,871,891
2010 to Current Comparisons

Listing Inventory
7
• BIG deal in 2016
• BIGGER deal in 2017
• Existing inventory levels down 11% over a year (nationally)

Median Seller Tenure In Home
8

First-Time Homebuyers make up
Majority of 2017 Home buyers*
9
• 52% First Time Homebuyers
• 61% Millennial Buyers (35 years and under)
• Millennials skip over starter homes for move-up properties
• NAR reported in 2016 17% of buyers under 25 year saved down
payment monies within one year

The boom….The New Jersey MarketThe Statewide Picture

The New Jersey MarketThe Statewide Picture
Source: NJAR 10K Research

The New Jersey MarketYTD Statewide Picture
New Listings Pendings

The New Jersey MarketYTD Statewide Picture

The New Jersey MarketThe Statewide Picture: Absorption Rate

The Local Market
Real Estate is Local
It’s Local to the County
It’s Local to the Town
It’s Local to the Price Point
It’s Local to the Neighborhood/Development
It’s Local to the Street

‘I can do my own local
research online…’
You’re probably thinking….

Princeton Real Estate October 2017 Market Seminar

Online Estimates
If the estimate is accurate within 5% you’re
talking about a
$50,000 spread on a $500,000 estimate
The home value could be anywhere from
$475,000 - $525,000
And they’re only that close
a third of the time

The boom….The Local MarketThe Local Picture

Mercer County
Supply & Demand
Price Trends
Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
The Local Picture

Long Term Demand …
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/dmograph/est/est_index.html
Long Term Demand for Housing
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Long Term Demand …
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf
Long Term Demand for Housing

Source: NJAR 10K Research Data
Mercer/ Middlesex County
Market Drivers
1. Trains/Schools/Affordability
2. Schools/Trains/Affordability
3. Convenience/Town Center/Lifestyle
4. Affordability
5. Schools
6. Trains

Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: https://education.state.nj.us/pr/

Plainsboro Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Average Sale Price
Source: Middlesex MLS

Single Family Homes
Average Days on Market

Single Family Homes
List to Sale Price Ratio

Condos & Townhouses
Average Sale Price

Condos & Townhouses

Walker Gordon Farm
Average Sale Price

Walker Gordon Farm

Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research
Plainsboro, Year over Year
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed 254 269 306 274
Pended 164 183 204 215
Sold 146 171 198 191
Avg Sold Price $434 $426 $438 $384

West Windsor
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

West Windsor Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Average Sale Price

Single Family Homes
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Single Family Homes

Condos & Townhouses
Average Sale Price
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Condos & Townhouses

Condos & Townhouses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

All Styles– Canal Pointe
Average Sale Price
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Canal Pointe – All Styles
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Canal Pointe – All Styles
Average List to Sale Price Ratio
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Single Family – Estates @ Princeton Jct
Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS

Source: Trend MLS

WW, Year over Year
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed 409 431 466 379
Pended 284 293 294 282
Sold 254 278 302 283
Avg Sold Price $591 $582 $561 $577

East Windsor
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

East Windsor Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Average Sale Price
2012 2013 2014 2016
Source: Trend MLS
2015 2017

Single Family Homes
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Condos & Townhouses
Average Sale Price
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

Condos & Townhouses
Source: Trend MLS
2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017

EW, Year over Year, Jan – May
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed 403 384 422 384
Pended 236 241 304 330
Sold 228 229 264 313
Avg Sold Price $249 $269 $255 $271

Lawrenceville
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

LawrencevilleMarket Activity
SingleFamily Homes
AverageSalePrice
2012 2013 2015
Source: TrendMLS
2014 2016 2017

SingleFamily Homes
AverageDayson Market
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Lawrenceville Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Lawrenceville Market Activity
Condos & Townhouses
Average Sale Price
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Condos& Townhouses
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Condos& Townhouses
List to Sale PriceRatio
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Law, Year over Year, Jan – May
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed 508 470 474 491
Pended 285 254 309 321
Sold 261 246 290 319
Avg Sold Price $304 $317 $301 $314

Princeton
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K ResearchSource: TrendMLS

Princeton Market Activity
Single Family Average Sale Price
Source: TrendMLS

Single Family Average Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

Single Family List to Sale Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton Condo/ Townhouse
Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

Princeton Condo/ Townhouses

Princeton Condo Townhouse

Princeton Single Family
Under $1 million Average Sales Price

Princeton Single Family Homes
Under $1 million Average Days on Market

Under $1 million List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

$1-1.9 million Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

$1-1.9 million Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

$1-1.9 million List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

Source: TrendMLS

Open House Traffic
Source: TrendMLS

$1-1.5 million Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

$1-1.5 million List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

$1.5-1.99 million Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

$1.5-1.99 million Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

$1.5-1.99 million List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

$2 million + Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

$2 million Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

$2 million List to Sales Price Ratio
Source: TrendMLS

$3 million+ Average Sales Price
Source: TrendMLS

$3 million+ Days on Market
Source: TrendMLS

Pton, Year over Year
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed 401 431 418 392
Pended 264 248 264 248
Sold 261 238 251 254
Avg Sold Price $965k $1.037m $1.031m $1.069m

Ewing
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Ewing
SF Average Sale Price

Ewing
SF DOM

Ewing
SF List to Sale Price Ratio

Ewing, Year over Year, Jan – May
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed
Pended
Sold
Avg Sold Price

Hamilton
Train
Schools
Lifestyle
Affordability

Hamilton Market Activity
Single Family Homes
Average Sale Price
Source: TrendMLS

Single Family Homes
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017

Condos & Townhouses
Average Sale Price
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 20152014 20172016

Condos & Townhouses
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hamilton, Year over Year, Jan – May
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed 1322 1354 1417 1405
Pended 682 784 892 972
Sold 633 701 815 923
Avg Sold Price $210 $218 $209 $209

Hopewell

Hopewell Twp Market Activity
SingleFamily Homes
AverageSalePrice
2012 2013 2014
Source: TrendMLS
2015 2016 2017

SingleFamily Homes
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Condos& Townhouses
AverageSalePrice
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Condos& Townhouses
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Brandon Farms*
AverageSalePrice
(includes Single Family and Townhomes)
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Brandon Farms*
Source: TrendMLS
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hopewell, Year over Year, Jan – May
2014 2015 2016 2017
Listed 414 418 393 426
Pended 200 217 236 251
Sold 162 221 238 243
Avg Sold Price $516 $513 $517 $477

The Local Market
It’s Local to the Town
It’s Local to the Price Point
It’s Local to the Neighborhood/Development
It’s Local to the Street

Strategies for
Buying and Selling
in Today’s Market

When’s the best time to Buy/Sell?
Source: Trend MLS

Local Market Absorption: Lawrence
Style Active Listings
Under
Contract in 30
Days
Absorption
Rate
New Listings
in 30 Days
Net Inventory
Gain/Loss
Price
Reductions in
30 Days
% of Invent.
Reduced
Closed Sales
in 30 days
All Styles 167 15 11.1 34 19 61 36% 31
Single Family 115 10 11.5 25 15 41 35% 17
Condo/
Townhouse 19 5 3.8 11 6 19 100% 14
Adult
Community 4 2 2 2 0 1 25%

Lawrence
7/27/17
Under Contract in
30 Days
Absorption Rate
0-500 28 14 2
Single Family
500-700 23 0 99
Single Family
700-999 7 0 99
Single Family
$1.0+ 13 1 13

Local Market Absorption: West Windsor
Under
Contract in 30
Days
Absorption
Rate
New Listings
in 30 Days
Net Inventory
Gain/Loss
Price
Reductions in
30 Days
% of Invent.
Reduced
Closed Sales
in 30 days
All Styles 86 16 5.375 37 21 5 31%
Single Family 71 10 7.1 28 18 28 39%
Condo/
Townhouse 15 6 2.5 9 3 4 26%
Adult
Community 8 0 99* 2 2 5 62%

7/27/17
Pending in last
30 Days
Absorption
Rate
SF
0-650
38 6 6.3
SF
650-799
31 4 7.75
SF
800-999 17 0 99
$1.0+ 2 0 99

2017
Top Buyer Negotiating Strategies…
1.Pay Now or Pay More Later (based on core market, schools,
trains and towns)
2.Don’t Wait to Offer on an ‘Over-Priced’ Home, its fun to
negotiate 1:1
3.Use an Escalation Clause in High-Demand Markets & in
multiple bid situations
4. ‘Thin Slice’ the Market. Get hyper local (ab rate,
inventory, pricing etc)

Buyer Negotiation Tips in a Fast Market
1. Understand the process before you start shopping.
2. Have mortgage pre-approval from a local, respected,
reliable lender
3. Put a significant amount in escrow if possible
4. Be as flexible as possible with your closing date
5. Remove as many contingencies as possible (inspection,
appraisel, etc)
6. Use an Escalation Clause

Financial Services
Carlos A. Machado
Gold Services Manager
Princeton Office
NMLS #4384
Weichert Financial Services
908-307-8317
cmachado@weichertfinancial.com

•For Sellers: To make sure they have all the
information they need to choose an offer
•For Buyers: Buying Power & Documentation
My Job…

As the seller, do I get to see the
pre-approval letter?
• The Pre-approval letter must be with all the offers.
• Cash deals should be accompanied with a "proof of funds"
which is a bank statement or letter from the bank or escrow
agent
• Make sure the letter is not a pre-qualification (this is only an
opinion letter)
• Let me help you review and confirm the pre-approvals you
have when you go to select an offer

We will help you to find out your
Purchase Power !

Your Mortgage Loan Checklist
• Two Forms of identification (including 1 government
photo ID.
• Pay stubs for the past 30 days.
• Your most recent last two years' W-2.
• All pages of your signed personal tax returns, for the
two most recent years.
• All pages of your most recent bank statement.
• (sellers, make sure that this was done)

Experience a smooth closing!
• Don’t apply for credit.
• Don’t be late with payments.
• Don’t make a large purchase.
• Don’t be late with documents.
• Try not to change jobs.
Following these tips can ease you down the road toward a smooth
closing.

Weichert Financial
Carlos Alberto Machado
Gold Service Manager
908-307-8317
Princeton Office
NMLS#4384

I look forward to meeting with you

Carlos A. Machado
Gold Services Manager
Princeton Office
NMLS #4384
Weichert Financial Services
908-307-8317

2017
Top Seller Negotiating Strategies…
1.Stage it (Pretty it Up)
2.Fix it First (Pre Inspect)
3.Price it Right (Set the Market)
4.Stay in Control

All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.
Home Pricing
Who is in control?

The process of preparing homes for sale
regardless of price, location, or condition
to achieve the maximum sales price in the
minimum marketing time.
The goal is to appeal to the broadest range of
BUYERS.
What is Home Staging?

“Wow…. I could live here!”

Buyers Only Know What They See …

Home Staging
*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.
The average increase in sales price of an ASP
Staged vs. non-Staged home is
6.9%
That is an additional $31,050 on a
$450,000 sale
“The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”

Home Staging
Who is in control?

The Impact of Inspection & Repairs
on the Salability of Your Home..…
A Certified Home Inspector’s report will review:
Condition of the home's HVAC, Plumbing and Electrical Systems
The roof, attic, and visible insulation
Walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors
The foundation, basement, and visible structure
It will also advise if any potential environmental hazards were observed

• Why do a Pre-Inspection?
– Fix/ Disclose/ Permit EVERYTHING before going on
market
– Removes buyer objections/ fears
– Reduce the risk of going ‘off market’ for a buyer
who ends up killing the deal
– You stay in control
Pre-Inspection

Pre - Inspection
Who is in control?

The Impact of Your Initial List Price

• Promotes a sense of urgency among buyers & agents
(fear of loss)
• Generates interest and showings
• Sets the stage for multiple offers in the first 30 days
• Offers tend to be higher in relation to list price
• Results in highest price in shortest time
Effects of “Right” Pricing

• Buyer excitement diminishes quickly
• Extends time house is on the market
• Results in price reductions
• May attract “bargain hunters” and discounted offers
• Results in a lower selling price
Effects of Over Pricing:

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing
price as yours…
PTA suggested Market Value of
$840,000
Ab Rate of 12.5 months
Listed at $799,500
1 day on the market
4 Offers
Bidding wrapping up today
The seller had control
West Windsor

price as yours…
5 Lost Trail: listed by another Broker on
7/31/16 for $695,000. Decrease price
on 9/24/16 to $650,000. Listing with
Broker expired on 2/28/2017 after being
on the market for 216 days.
Wct listed their property on 4/7/2017 at
$680,000. Used Professional
photography & 3D Matterport,
recommended contractor work to be
done, used professional staging,
Property went to pending on 4-22-
17------closed on 5-19-17 at $10,000
over listed price $690,000 after
receiving multiple offers.
Lawrence

Princeton
36 Mercer St.
The Price Trend Analysis suggested Market Value of $1.250
We recommended listing at $1.1 million

Princeton
36 Mercer St.
• Pre-inspection
• Staged
• Right Pricing
Sold for $1.350 million, cash in 7 days. No contingencies.

Hamilton
1715 Silver Ct.
Hamilton N J 08690
2 Bedroom 1.5 Baths
Presented at $115,000
Listed 6/5/17---
1 open house 6/10/17 received multiple offers starting
6/11/17 at full asking and then at over asking contract
signed on 6/14/17---Closing date of 7/17/17

Hamilton
Two other units on the
market for sale in the
same community-1 at
$122,000 was on
originally at $129,000
so far for 166 days.
(listing broker placed this one photo
on the Internet)

Hamilton
---the other at
$112,900 so far on for
66 days
(listing broker placed
one photo on the MLS)

price as yours…
Listed at $544,900
Reduced to $535,000
Reduced to $509,000
Reduced to $499,000
96 Days on Market
1 Offer
Sold for $490,000
The buyer had control

Fall Thru Analysis
Reason for Fall Thru Total # Fall Thrus % of Total Fall Thrus
Home Inspection 659 39.2%
Buyer Financing 416 24.8%
Buyer Changed Mind 185 11.0%
Attorney Review 72 4.3%
Appraisal 71 4.2%
Contingency of buyer/seller house purchase 44 2.6%
Short Sale Declined 39 2.3%
Another offer (buyer) came in 30 1.8%
Seller Changed Mind 23 1.4%
HOA Docs or Board not approved 21 1.3%
Buyer/Seller Passed Away or illness 14 0.8%
Foreclosure or Bankruptcy 14 0.8%
Title Issues 13 0.8%
Deal Came Back together & Closed or Set to Close 11 0.7%
Other 36 2.1%
Unknown 31 1.8%
Total 1679* 100%

Weichert Family of Companies
What will a real estate
company do for me?

Source: 2012 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
This is
where
you win
or lose
the sale

Making Your Purchase as
Smooth as Possible
Buying a home involves the careful
coordination of many people.
Choosing a real estate team you can
count on will make the process smoother
and easier.

Resource and Website ListResource and Website List
www.trendmls.com
www.realtor.org
www.njar.com
www.Otteau.com
www.Pre-listing-inspection.com
www.Housemaster.com
www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com
www.realtytrac.com
www.njar.com/10k
www.keepingcurrentmatters.com
https://education.state.nj.us/pr/

Princeton Real Estate October 2017 Market Seminar

Princeton Real Estate October 2017 Market Seminar

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