The document summarizes research on travel behavior changes during the 2012 London Olympics and Paralympics. It found that 54% of people surveyed made at least one change to their commute during the Games, with working from home being the most sustained change long-term. While the Transtheoretical Model provided some insights, clustering analysis found people's ability to adapt their travel in the short-term was more complex than the model predicts. The research highlights how major events can catalyze behavior changes but more work is needed to understand factors affecting long-term change.

1. Institute for Transport Studies
Institute for Transport Studies
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
The Longevity of Behaviour Change: A Case
Study of the London 2012 Olympic and
Paralympic Games
UTSG 2015
5th January 2015
Stephen Parkes
Atos (2012)Rex (2012)

2. Overview
• Background to the research
– Case study: the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics
– Four-wave longitudinal panel survey
– Application of a theoretical model - The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
• Key findings discussed
– Substantial degree of behaviour change occurred
during the Games (54% made at least one change)
– Some changes were sustained post-Games but these
were limited in the longer-term
– Greater understanding of the underlying factors
affecting change in disruptive contexts, and the
distinctions between different types of change
Source: Transport for London

3. London 2012
• The Olympics – “The greatest show on Earth”
– ‘Major-event’ placing significant pressures on host city
– Up to 800,000 extra journeys on busiest day during London
2012 (Sumner, 2012)
• Great deal of planning to keep system moving
…but it can go wrong – Atlanta 1996
• Travel Demand Management was a key part of the London
preparations
− Behaviour change to complement
infrastructural improvements
Catchpole (2012)
Source: Transport for London

4. London 2012
Travel Hotspots
Urban Times (2012)

5. London 2012
• Overall performance reported as positive
• Increased pressure on system but it still coped well
– e.g. 28% increase in underground journeys on same time in 2011
(TfL, 2012, p.162)
• Examples of isolated disruptions but wider system not
compromised:

6. Panel Survey
• Collaboration between the Institute for Transport Studies and TfL
– TfL commissioned 3-wave panel survey (carried out by AECOM)
– Wave 4 survey conducted by ITS in partnership with TfL
• Examined commute, business travel and non-work journeys
before, during and after the Games

7. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
• Developed by Prochaska and DiClemente in the late 1970s
• Originated in the health behaviour field but has been used in the
study of travel behaviour – however it is used here in an
exploratory role
• Used to study behaviour at the individual level, focusing on the
psychological factors that can influence change
• Sees change as a process that an individual progresses through
as they make a change to behaviour

8. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
1. The stages of change
2. Processes of change
3. Self-efficacy
4. Decisional balance
Pre-
contemplation
Contemplation Preparation Action Maintenance
I am not
considering
changing the
way I normally
travel to work.
I am considering
changing the
way I normally
travel to work
but I am not in
aa position to
make this
change yet.
I am doing
things to
prepare myself
to change the
way I travel to
work.
I have tried
changing the
way I travel to
work once or
twice since the
beginning of this
year.
I have regularly
tried changing
the way I travel
to work since
the beginning of
this year.

9. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)
(Adapted from Burkholder and Nigg, 2002; Nigg et al.,2011)
Pre-
contemplation

Contemplation

Preparation

Action

Maintenance
Helping
relationships
Social liberation
Social liberation
Self-re-
evaluation
Social liberation
Self-re-
evaluation
Self-liberation
Self-liberation
Stimulus control
Contingency
management
Counter-
conditioning
Helping
relationships
Helping
relationships
Social liberation
Self-efficacy at
lowest
Self-efficacy
increasing
Self-efficacy
increasing
Rapid increase
in self-efficacy
Self-efficacy
peaks

10. What happened during the Games?
• Significant amount of change to commute journeys
– 54% of people made at least one change to their commute
– 25% made more than one change
• More changes for those with a greater preparedness to change

11. Reducing and Re-timing Journeys
• Reducing (31%) or re-timing (25%) journeys most common
• Reducing more likely in those with less preparedness to change

12. Sustaining Changes Post-Games
Short-term (Wave 3):
• 6% of the sample sustained their changes after the Games
• Working from home (WFH) continued at the Games-time level
• Analysis of socio-demographics showed there were no statistical
differences between those who sustained and those who did not
Long-term (Wave 4):
• Levels of WFH have continued to be maintained
• Other changes have not generally been sustained (e.g. only a
very small proportion continuing to sustain changes in mode)

13. Value of the TTM
• The processes of change helped to highlight the apparent
distinctions between types of change
• Self-efficacy particularly important for changing modes
Processes of change Reduced Re-timed Re-moded Re-routed
Environmental Re-evaluation  ***  
Social Liberation ** ***  *
Helping Relationships    
Self Liberation   *** *
Counter Conditioning *  * 
Stimulus Control *** *** * *
Contingency Management    
Self-re-evaluation  *** *** *
*Significant at < .05 **Significant at < .005 ***Significant at < .001

14. Two-step Cluster Analysis
• However, the TTM did not reflect people’s ability to adapt their
travel behaviour over a short-term period
• A two-step cluster analysis was conducted to explore
inconsistencies shown in the TTM
• 8 Processes of change and 7 self-efficacy items tested
• Produced four clusters that did not match to the theoretical
expectations of the TTM

15. Two-step Cluster Analysis
1
2
3
4
5
Reluctant Changers
Easy Re-moders
Difficult Adaptors
Able Inactive
Strongly Agree
Agree
Neither
Disagree
Strongly Disagree

16. Two-step Cluster Analysis
Clusters (%)
Type of
change
made
Easy Re-
moders
(n=173)
Able Inactive
(n=137)
Difficult
Adaptors
(n=149)
Reluctant
Changers
(n=231)
Any Change 72 65.2 63.4 61.3
Reduce 38.7 32.8 33.6 34.6
Re-mode 24.7 10.4 12 15.9
Re-route 21 17.2 21.8 21.5
Re-time 43.2 32.8 29.6 34.1
The degree of change amongst the clusters

17. Conclusions
• As a catalyst for change, the Games was highly effective but
these changes were not sustained in the long-term
– Many people in the sample showed a flexibility to adapt their behaviour in the
short-term
• The TTM provided some insights but the lack of fit of the data to
the model raises questions about its applicability to the transport
disruption context
• The clusters however showed the value of the processes of
change and self-efficacy constructs
• These may help to identify likelihood of people making a particular
change, and also emphasises the apparent distinctions between
the types of change

18. Acknowledgements
This research forms part of my PhD, which was supervised by Professor
Greg Marsden and Dr Ann Jopson.
I am grateful to Transport for London for their co-operation and support in
commissioning the panel survey, which was essential for this research. I
would also like to thank AECOM for their work on the panel survey.
The opinions expressed in this presentation are solely those of the
presenter and not necessarily those of Transport for London.

19. Thank you.
Any questions?
Email: ts10sdp@leeds.ac.uk

20. References
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[Accessed 28 August 2014].
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