Transitions to Sustainability and the Role of Policy

Transitions to Sustainability
and the role of policy

Prof. Dr. Derk Loorbach
Brussels, 03-12-2013

DRIFT
• Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, Rotterdam with
18 action researchers
• Established 2004 as part of the national transition research
program KSI
• Action/activist research institute; (international)
fundamental and applied research, consultancy,
academic/postgraduate education

• STRN: 600+ members globally

Program of thissession
• Introductiontosustainabilitytransitionsandtrans
ition management
• Examples of urbantransition management
• Group exercises: building blocksfortransition

• Synthesis: the transitionnarrative
12-12-2013

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Persistent unsustainability
• Current socio-economic systems are inherently
unsustainable
– Economically, ecologically and socially

• But they are also heavily path-dependent
– Locked in technologically, economically and culturally

• Incremental improvement is not enough and CO2 is only
one of the problems
– Sub-optimization often only strengthens lock-in

Systemic destabilisation
• The foundations underlying historical modernization are at
the end of their life-cycle
– Growth, efficiency, specialisation, optimisation

• Unpredictable and shockwise change seems inevitable
– Just like in historical transitions

• Current crises are symptoms of non-linear systemic shifts
happening
– We need to consider these as windows of opportunity for major
change towards sustainability

Transitions
Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental change of
structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)system

– culture:collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared orientation),
paradigms

– structure:physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure,

institutions,

rules, regulations, collective routines

– practices:behaviour, operation, implementation
 Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and socio-economic
systems
 Paradigm to analyse and influence complex societal change

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transition levels
Macro-level: landscape
autonomous trends, paradigms,
slow changes

Meso-level: regime
Dominant structure, culture
and practices

Micro-level: niches
innovative
ideas, projects, technologi
es, niche actors
Based on Geels and Kemp, 2001

Transition phases
stabilisation

reconfiguration

predevelopment

tipping phase

Sustainable
Society?

enhancedlock-in

decline
Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

Time

Evolutionary revolutions
• Revolution at systems level on the long term
• Evolution on the short-term: multiple and
reinforcing small steps


Characteristics of transitions
• Inherent uncertainties and unpredictability
– Wicked or unstructured problems

• Emergence, co-evolution and self-organisation
– As typical dynamics underlying systems change

• Unmanageable, ambiguous and contested
– They are mainly about behavioral, institutional, cultural change

• Transitions most likely do not automatically lead to
sustainability
– It is about the process of sustainable development rather than the
end goal

Transition governance principles
• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policy
• thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different
actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)

• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and
‘doing-by-learning’)
• orient governance towards system innovation besides system
improvement
• keeping options open, exploring multiple pathways
• selectiveparticipationfocusing on frontrunners

Transition Governance Framework
Problem structuring,
shared sense of urgency,
guiding visions

Institutional
and
structural
changes,
new
networks/
coalitions

Monitoring,
evaluating
and learning

Breakthrough actions,
projects and initiatives,
new organisations

Transitions…
Are not…

Canbe…

• Manageable

• Anticipated

• Makeable

• Influenced

• Engineerable
• Predictable

• Guided
• Accelerated

Transition arenas
society

Regular arenas
- Short term
- Peloton
- Incremental change
- Problem- and goal oriented

Transition arenas
- Long term
- Frontrunners
- System-innovation
- Problem- and goal searching

Transition Management Framework
establishment of
transition arenas, shared
problem definitions and
visions
Developing
images
coalitions
and
transitionagendas

Monitoring,
evaluating
and learning

Mobilizing actors and
executing projects and
experiments

Transition
Team

Transition
Arena

Phase I

Phase III

Setting the scene

Framing the transition

Phase II

Phase IV

Exploringdynamic Envisioning a
s
sustainablecity

Phase V
Reconnecting long term
& short term

Transition
Networks

TransitionExp
eriments

Phase VI

Goinginto
action
Phase VII

Engaging&ancho
ring

Tools

expert-arena

problem analysis
SCENE

MLP

patterns

actor selection

reflexive
monitoring

system analysis

TRANSCE

arena

evaluation
monitoring
framework

actor analysis

trans. indicators

TM

experiments
transitioning
DBU
Deepening, broadening, upscaling

multiple participatory tools

agenda

Mitigation in Urban Areas,
Solutions for Innovative Cities

Aberdeen

5 local governments search for
pathways to a low carbon future
Ghent

Supported by two knowledge
institutions: CRP Henri Tudor
(LUX), DRIFT (NL)

Montreuil

Rotterdam
Ludwigsburg

Transition arena Ghent (Belgium)
•Ghent, great place to live
• Locally creating added value
• Energetic city, intelligent cycles
• Ghentenaar home in the city

CWG Valorisation waste water
andbiodegradables

CWG Art Sector

Research
biogas from
biodegr.

20 cultural
organizations
> 100.000
visitors

CEIP meets
GMS

938 mobbers
CWG consumer pusher market
KWG mobiliteit

Inspiration to
political parties

Climate arena
Ghent (Belgium)
Mobility arena

Support forSMEs

Transition
University
Ghent

Assessment
of
potentialfor
ESCO’s

CWG Energy Efficiency in business

KWG UGent

CWG Urban
Farming

Old industrialharbordevelopment
• Transition arena
developingsustainabilityvisionandambition
– Shared discourse and break awayfromoldparadigm

• Strategic agenda with 5
sustainabilitypathways
– Orientationforexperimentsand open
invitationtoparticipate

• Experimentaldevelopmentstrategy
– Learning-by-doingandevolvingpractice

One of the images: Floating City
(Design: www.deltasync.nl)


…the transition experiment


Resilient neighbourhoods
Strategic

Organisational

Practical

Blurringboundaries
Old structures of
modernization era
erodingfromwithinthr
ough cross-domain
networks of actors
across food, energy,
water, social services,
andeconomy.
12-12-2013

Economictransition

12-12-2013


Transition in roles
Sustainability science & action research

Social value
business & business
transition

Transition
Management

Facilitating and
participating
governance

social entrepreneurship & cooperative
initiatives

What is the (persistent) problem?
• Understanding currenttransitiondynamics
• Identifyingtransitionpotential

• Identifying change agents
• Creatingspaceandmindsetforreflexiveexperi
mentation

What is a sustainablecity?
• Sustainablypowered
• Clean mobility
• Vitalcirculareconomy
• Adaptiveand green

• …?

Transitionpathways

Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

Time

Backcasting exercise
1. Formulateaninspiringambitious target
2. Reasonbackwards: whatneedsto change
In 5 yearintervals

3. Includesuprisesandbreakthroughs

4. Make threesuggestionsfor action
12-12-2013


Thank you for your attention

For more information and publications:
loorbach@drift.eur.nl
www.drift.eur.nl
www.transitionsnetwork.org
www.twitter.com/drk75

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