IOSR Journal of Mathematics(IOSR-JM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of mathemetics and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications in mathematics. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Mathematics Model Development Deployment of Dengue Fever Diseases by Involve ...Dr. Amarjeet Singh
Dengue virus is one of virus that cause deadly disease
was dengue fever. This virus was transmitted through bite of
Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes that gain virus infected by
taking food from infected human blood, then mosquitoes
transmited pathogen to susceptible humans. Suppressed the
spread and growth of dengue fever was important to avoid
and prevent the increase of dengue virus sufferer and
casualties. This problem can be solved with studied
important factors that affected the spread and equity of
disease by sensitivity index. The purpose of this research
were to modify mathematical model the spread of dengue
fever be SEIRS-ASEI type, to determine of equilibrium
point, to determined of basic reproduction number, stability
analysis of equilibrium point, calculated sensitivity index, to
analyze sensitivity, and to simulate numerical on
modification model. Analysis of model obtained disease free
equilibrium (DFE) point and endemic equilibrium point. The
numerical simulation result had showed that DFE, stable if
the basic reproduction number is less than one and endemic
equilibrium point was stable if the basic reproduction
number is more than one.
Engineering Research Publication
Best International Journals, High Impact Journals,
International Journal of Engineering & Technical Research
ISSN : 2321-0869 (O) 2454-4698 (P)
www.erpublication.org
Human-to-Human transmission of H7H7 in Holland 2003Harm Kiezebrink
The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H7N7 started at the end of February, 2003, in commercial poultry farms in the Netherlands. In this study, published in The Lancet in 2004, it is noted that an unexpectedly high number of transmissions of avian influenza A virus subtype H7N7 to people directly involved in handling infected poultry, providing evidence for person-to-person transmission.
Although the risk of transmission of these viruses to humans was initially thought to be low, an outbreak investigation was launched to assess the extent of transmission of influenza A virus subtype H7N7 from chickens to humans.
453 people had health complaints—349 reported conjunctivitis, 90 had influenza-like illness, and 67 had other complaints. We detected A/H7 in conjunctival samples from 78 (26·4%) people with conjunctivitis only, in five (9·4%) with influenza-like illness and conjunctivitis, in two (5·4%) with influenza-like illness only, and in four (6%) who reported other symptoms. Most positive samples had been collected within 5 days of symptom onset. A/H7 infection was confirmed in three contacts (of 83 tested), one of whom developed influenza-like illness. Six people had influenza A/H3N2 infection. After 19 people had been diagnosed with the infection, all workers received mandatory influenza virus vaccination and prophylactic treatment with oseltamivir. More than half (56%) of A/H7 infections reported here arose before the vaccination and treatment programme.
AI transmission risks: Analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structureHarm Kiezebrink
Contacts between people, equipment and vehicles prior and during outbreak situations are critical to determine the possible source of infection of a farm. Hired laborers are known to play a big role in interconnecting farms. Once a farm is infected, culling entire flock is the only option to prevent further spreading with devastating consequences for the industry.
In this paper, based on the HPAI outbreak in Holland 2003, the researchers found that 32 farms hired external labor of which seven accessed other poultry on the same day.
However, they were not the only ‘connectors’ as some (twelve) farmers also reported themselves helping on other poultry farms.
Furthermore, 27 farms had family members visiting poultry or poultry-related businesses of which nine entered poultry houses during those visits. The other enhancing factor of farm interconnections was the reported ownership of multiple locations for ten of the interviewed farms and the reported on-premises sale of farm products on one pullet and eight layer farms.
Also worth mentioning is the practice of a multiple age system reported on eight of the interviewed farms as this may increase the risk of infecting remaining birds when off-premises poultry movements occur.
AI viruses may be introduced into poultry from reservoirs such as aquatic wild birds but the mechanisms of their subsequent spread are partially unclear. Transmission of the virus through movements of humans (visitors, servicemen and farm personnel), vectors (wild birds, rodents, insects), air- (and dust-) related routes and other fomites (e.g., delivery trucks, visitors’ clothes and farm equipment) have all been hypothesized.
It is therefore hypothesized that the risk of introducing the virus to a farm is determined by the farm’s neighborhood characteristics, contact structure and its biosecurity practices.
On the one hand, neighborhood characteristics include factors such as the presence of water bodies (accessed by wild birds), the density of poultry farms (together with the number and type of birds on these farms) and poultry-related businesses and the road network. The use of manure in the farm’s vicinity is also deemed to be risky.
On the other hand, contact structure risk factors include the nature and frequency of farm visits. Therefore, a detailed analysis of the contact structure, including neighborhood risks, and biosecurity practices across different types of poultry farms and poultry-related businesses helps the improvement of intervention strategies, biosecurity protocols and adherence to these, as well as contact tracing protocols.
Farmers’ perception of visitor- and neighborhood-associated risks of virus spread is also important due to its relevance to adherence with biosecurity protocols, to contact tracing and to communicating advice to them.
Spatial, temporal and genetic dynamics of H5N1 in chinaHarm Kiezebrink
The spatial spread of H5N1 avian influenza, significant ongoing mutations, and long-term persistence of the virus in some geographic regions has had an enormous impact on the poultry industry and presents a serious threat to human health.
This study revealed two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses in China, and indicated a significant role of poultry in virus dissemination. Furthermore, selective pressure posed by vaccination was found in virus evolution in the country.
Phylogenetic analysis, geospatial techniques, and time series models were applied to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of H5N1 outbreaks in China and the effect of vaccination on virus evolution.
Results showed obvious spatial and temporal clusters of H5N1 outbreaks on different scales, which may have been associated with poultry and wild-bird transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Lead–lag relationships were found among poultry and wild-bird outbreaks and human cases. Human cases were preceded by poultry outbreaks, and wild-bird outbreaks were led by human cases.
Each clade has gained its own unique spatiotemporal and genetic dominance. Genetic diversity of the H5N1 virus decreased significantly between 1996 and 2011; presumably under strong selective pressure of vaccination. Mean evolutionary rates of H5N1 virus increased after vaccination was adopted in China.
Avian influenza virus-infected poultry can release a large amount of virus-contaminated droppings that serve as sources of infection for susceptible birds. Much research so far has focused on virus spread within flocks. However, as fecal material or manure is a major constituent of airborne poultry dust, virus-contaminated particulate matter from infected flocks may be dispersed into the environment.
This study, demonstrates the presence of airborne influenza virus RNA downwind from buildings holding LPAI-infected birds, and the observed correlation between field data on airborne poultry and livestock associated microbial exposure and the OPS-ST model. These findings suggest that geographical estimates of areas at high risk for human and animal exposure to airborne influenza virus can be modeled during an outbreak, although additional field measurements are needed to validate this proposition. In addition, the outdoor detection of influenza virus contaminated airborne dust during outbreaks in poultry suggests that practical measures can assist in the control of future influenza outbreaks.
In general, exposure to airborne influenza virus on commercial poultry farms could be reduced both by minimizing the initial generation of airborne particles and implementing methods for abatement of particles once generated. As an example, emergency mass culling of poultry using a foam blanket over the birds instead of labor-intensive whole-house gassing followed by ventilation reduces both exposure of cullers and dispersion of contaminated dust into the environment, contributing to the control of influenza outbreaks.
Per contact probability of infection by Highly Pathogenic Avian InfluenzaHarm Kiezebrink
Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies.
We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm.
With these data, the ‘maximum likelihood estimation’ approach was used to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced.
The outcomes were validated against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. The findings highlight the need to
1) Understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and
2) To review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm’s day-to-day activities and practices.
Mathematics Model Development Deployment of Dengue Fever Diseases by Involve ...Dr. Amarjeet Singh
Dengue virus is one of virus that cause deadly disease
was dengue fever. This virus was transmitted through bite of
Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes that gain virus infected by
taking food from infected human blood, then mosquitoes
transmited pathogen to susceptible humans. Suppressed the
spread and growth of dengue fever was important to avoid
and prevent the increase of dengue virus sufferer and
casualties. This problem can be solved with studied
important factors that affected the spread and equity of
disease by sensitivity index. The purpose of this research
were to modify mathematical model the spread of dengue
fever be SEIRS-ASEI type, to determine of equilibrium
point, to determined of basic reproduction number, stability
analysis of equilibrium point, calculated sensitivity index, to
analyze sensitivity, and to simulate numerical on
modification model. Analysis of model obtained disease free
equilibrium (DFE) point and endemic equilibrium point. The
numerical simulation result had showed that DFE, stable if
the basic reproduction number is less than one and endemic
equilibrium point was stable if the basic reproduction
number is more than one.
Engineering Research Publication
Best International Journals, High Impact Journals,
International Journal of Engineering & Technical Research
ISSN : 2321-0869 (O) 2454-4698 (P)
www.erpublication.org
Human-to-Human transmission of H7H7 in Holland 2003Harm Kiezebrink
The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H7N7 started at the end of February, 2003, in commercial poultry farms in the Netherlands. In this study, published in The Lancet in 2004, it is noted that an unexpectedly high number of transmissions of avian influenza A virus subtype H7N7 to people directly involved in handling infected poultry, providing evidence for person-to-person transmission.
Although the risk of transmission of these viruses to humans was initially thought to be low, an outbreak investigation was launched to assess the extent of transmission of influenza A virus subtype H7N7 from chickens to humans.
453 people had health complaints—349 reported conjunctivitis, 90 had influenza-like illness, and 67 had other complaints. We detected A/H7 in conjunctival samples from 78 (26·4%) people with conjunctivitis only, in five (9·4%) with influenza-like illness and conjunctivitis, in two (5·4%) with influenza-like illness only, and in four (6%) who reported other symptoms. Most positive samples had been collected within 5 days of symptom onset. A/H7 infection was confirmed in three contacts (of 83 tested), one of whom developed influenza-like illness. Six people had influenza A/H3N2 infection. After 19 people had been diagnosed with the infection, all workers received mandatory influenza virus vaccination and prophylactic treatment with oseltamivir. More than half (56%) of A/H7 infections reported here arose before the vaccination and treatment programme.
AI transmission risks: Analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structureHarm Kiezebrink
Contacts between people, equipment and vehicles prior and during outbreak situations are critical to determine the possible source of infection of a farm. Hired laborers are known to play a big role in interconnecting farms. Once a farm is infected, culling entire flock is the only option to prevent further spreading with devastating consequences for the industry.
In this paper, based on the HPAI outbreak in Holland 2003, the researchers found that 32 farms hired external labor of which seven accessed other poultry on the same day.
However, they were not the only ‘connectors’ as some (twelve) farmers also reported themselves helping on other poultry farms.
Furthermore, 27 farms had family members visiting poultry or poultry-related businesses of which nine entered poultry houses during those visits. The other enhancing factor of farm interconnections was the reported ownership of multiple locations for ten of the interviewed farms and the reported on-premises sale of farm products on one pullet and eight layer farms.
Also worth mentioning is the practice of a multiple age system reported on eight of the interviewed farms as this may increase the risk of infecting remaining birds when off-premises poultry movements occur.
AI viruses may be introduced into poultry from reservoirs such as aquatic wild birds but the mechanisms of their subsequent spread are partially unclear. Transmission of the virus through movements of humans (visitors, servicemen and farm personnel), vectors (wild birds, rodents, insects), air- (and dust-) related routes and other fomites (e.g., delivery trucks, visitors’ clothes and farm equipment) have all been hypothesized.
It is therefore hypothesized that the risk of introducing the virus to a farm is determined by the farm’s neighborhood characteristics, contact structure and its biosecurity practices.
On the one hand, neighborhood characteristics include factors such as the presence of water bodies (accessed by wild birds), the density of poultry farms (together with the number and type of birds on these farms) and poultry-related businesses and the road network. The use of manure in the farm’s vicinity is also deemed to be risky.
On the other hand, contact structure risk factors include the nature and frequency of farm visits. Therefore, a detailed analysis of the contact structure, including neighborhood risks, and biosecurity practices across different types of poultry farms and poultry-related businesses helps the improvement of intervention strategies, biosecurity protocols and adherence to these, as well as contact tracing protocols.
Farmers’ perception of visitor- and neighborhood-associated risks of virus spread is also important due to its relevance to adherence with biosecurity protocols, to contact tracing and to communicating advice to them.
Spatial, temporal and genetic dynamics of H5N1 in chinaHarm Kiezebrink
The spatial spread of H5N1 avian influenza, significant ongoing mutations, and long-term persistence of the virus in some geographic regions has had an enormous impact on the poultry industry and presents a serious threat to human health.
This study revealed two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses in China, and indicated a significant role of poultry in virus dissemination. Furthermore, selective pressure posed by vaccination was found in virus evolution in the country.
Phylogenetic analysis, geospatial techniques, and time series models were applied to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of H5N1 outbreaks in China and the effect of vaccination on virus evolution.
Results showed obvious spatial and temporal clusters of H5N1 outbreaks on different scales, which may have been associated with poultry and wild-bird transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Lead–lag relationships were found among poultry and wild-bird outbreaks and human cases. Human cases were preceded by poultry outbreaks, and wild-bird outbreaks were led by human cases.
Each clade has gained its own unique spatiotemporal and genetic dominance. Genetic diversity of the H5N1 virus decreased significantly between 1996 and 2011; presumably under strong selective pressure of vaccination. Mean evolutionary rates of H5N1 virus increased after vaccination was adopted in China.
Avian influenza virus-infected poultry can release a large amount of virus-contaminated droppings that serve as sources of infection for susceptible birds. Much research so far has focused on virus spread within flocks. However, as fecal material or manure is a major constituent of airborne poultry dust, virus-contaminated particulate matter from infected flocks may be dispersed into the environment.
This study, demonstrates the presence of airborne influenza virus RNA downwind from buildings holding LPAI-infected birds, and the observed correlation between field data on airborne poultry and livestock associated microbial exposure and the OPS-ST model. These findings suggest that geographical estimates of areas at high risk for human and animal exposure to airborne influenza virus can be modeled during an outbreak, although additional field measurements are needed to validate this proposition. In addition, the outdoor detection of influenza virus contaminated airborne dust during outbreaks in poultry suggests that practical measures can assist in the control of future influenza outbreaks.
In general, exposure to airborne influenza virus on commercial poultry farms could be reduced both by minimizing the initial generation of airborne particles and implementing methods for abatement of particles once generated. As an example, emergency mass culling of poultry using a foam blanket over the birds instead of labor-intensive whole-house gassing followed by ventilation reduces both exposure of cullers and dispersion of contaminated dust into the environment, contributing to the control of influenza outbreaks.
Per contact probability of infection by Highly Pathogenic Avian InfluenzaHarm Kiezebrink
Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies.
We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm.
With these data, the ‘maximum likelihood estimation’ approach was used to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced.
The outcomes were validated against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. The findings highlight the need to
1) Understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and
2) To review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm’s day-to-day activities and practices.
Modeling the Effect of Variation of Recruitment Rate on the Transmission Dyna...IOSR Journals
In this Paper, the effect of the variation of recruitment rate on the transmission dynamics of
tuberculosis was studied by modifying an existing model. While the recruitment rate into the susceptible class of
the existing model is constant, in our modified model we used a varying recruitment rate. The models were
analyzed analytically and numerically and these results were compared. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE)
state of the existing model was found to be
,0,0,0
, the DFE of the modified model was found to be
( ,0,0,0) * S where * S is arbitrary. While all the eigenvalue of the existing model are negative, one of the
eigenvalues of the modified model is zero. The basic reproduction number o R of both models are established to
be the same. The numerical experiments show a gradual decline in the infected and exposed populations as the
recruitment rates increase in both models but the decline is more in the modified model than in the existing
model. This implies that eradication will be achieved faster using the model with a varying recruitment rate.
Dossier transmission: Transmission of Avian Influenza Virus to DogsHarm Kiezebrink
Avian influenza was found in a dog on a farm in South Gyeongsang Province amid growing concerns that the disease could spread to other animals, officials the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said. The dog ― one of three at a duck farm in Goseong-gun, South Gyeongsang Province ― had antigens for the highly pathogenic H5N8 strain of bird flu, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said. The disease affected the farm on Jan. 23.
Since the first case of a dog being infected with the poultry virus in March 2014, there have been 55 dogs found with antibodies to the bird flu virus. The antibody means the immune system of the dogs eliminated the virus. This is the first time bird flu has been found in a dog in Korea through the detection of antigens.
“None of these dogs had shown symptoms. No antigens or antibodies for the virus were found in the two other dogs, which means that dog-to-dog transmission is unlikely to have happened,” quarantine officials said.
The ministry suspected that the dog may have eaten infected animals at the farm. All poultry and dogs at the concerned farm were slaughtered as part of the preventive measures right after the farm was reported to have been infected with the disease, officials said.
Meanwhile, quarantine officials rejected the possibility of viral transmission to humans. According to the ministry’s report, about 450 workers at infected farms across the country had been given an antigen test, with none showing signs of infection. None of Korea’s 20,000 farm workers have reported any symptoms so far, officials added.
“It is thought that infected dogs do not show symptoms of the disease as they are naturally resistant to bird flu,” the ministry said. Meanwhile, the Agriculture Ministry has toughened the quarantine measures in Goseong-gun. The region is a frequented by migratory birds, which are suspected to have spread the viral disease.
Dr. Robert Tauxe - Antimicrobial Resistance and The Human-Animal Interface: T...John Blue
Antimicrobial Resistance and The Human-Animal Interface: The Public Health Concerns - Dr. Robert Tauxe, Deputy Director, Division of Foodborne, Waterborne and Environmental Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, from the 2014 NIAA Symposium on Antibiotics Use and Resistance: Moving Forward Through Shared Stewardship, November 12-14, 2014, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-niaa-antibiotics-moving-forward-through-shared-stewardship
H5N8 virus dutch outbreak (2014) linked to sequences of strains from asiaHarm Kiezebrink
Genetic analysis of influenza A(H5N8) virus from the Netherlands indicates that the virus probably was spread by migratory wild birds from Asia, possibly through overlapping flyways and common breeding sites in Siberia. In addition to the outbreak in the Netherlands, several other outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) virus infections were reported in Europe at the end of 2014 after exponentially increasing deaths occurred in chicken and turkey flocks.
Genetic sequences submitted to the EpiFlu database indicated that the viruses from Europe showed a strong similarity to viruses isolated earlier in 2014 in South Korea, China, and Japan. An H5N8 virus isolated from a wigeon in Russia in September 2014 is located in the phylogenetic tree near the node of all sequences for H5N8 viruses from Europe.
In regard to time, this location fits the hypothesized route of H5N8 virus introduction into Europe. Furthermore, for several reasons, it is highly likely that the introduction of HPAI (H5N8) virus into the indoor-layer farm in the Netherlands occurred via indirect contact.
First, despite intensive monitoring, H5N8 viruses have never been detected in commercial poultry or wild birds in the Netherlands.
Second, when the virus was detected, the Netherlands had no direct trade contact with other European countries or Asia that might explain a route of introduction.
Third, because of the severity of disease in galliforms, outbreaks of H5N8 in the Netherlands before November 2014 would have been noticed.
Outbreak of High Patogen Avian Influenza H5N8 in GermanyHarm Kiezebrink
Germany has reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N8 in fattening turkeys in North East Germany
(Mecklenburg - Western Pomerania). Increased mortality was observed in one of the six sheds of 15 week old birds for fattening (total number of turkeys on the premises ~ 31,000 of which each shed contained 5,000).
International Journal of Engineering Research and Applications (IJERA) is an open access online peer reviewed international journal that publishes research and review articles in the fields of Computer Science, Neural Networks, Electrical Engineering, Software Engineering, Information Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Chemical Engineering, Plastic Engineering, Food Technology, Textile Engineering, Nano Technology & science, Power Electronics, Electronics & Communication Engineering, Computational mathematics, Image processing, Civil Engineering, Structural Engineering, Environmental Engineering, VLSI Testing & Low Power VLSI Design etc.
Antiviral Effects of Beta Lactoglobulin against Avian Influenza Virusijtsrd
Introduction The avian virus is an Influenza A virus that spread widely among human through direct or indirect contact with infected birds or poultry. But a totally new pandemic of avian virus those are becoming resistant to drugs by changing their genomes may be prevented by antiviral medicines and vaccines. Objective For this purpose ß lactoglobulin is esterified with various alcohols over different circumstances like acidity, protein intentness, water substance, time, temperature, etc. Methodology Methylated ß lactoglobulin provides antiviral activities against human flu infection subtype H3N2, subtype H1N1, and subtype H5N1. The impact of this study is viral HA Hemagglutinin action is repressed by the imposition of different convergences of MET BLG depending upon their distinctive concentration. Result A large number of positive charges on the MET BLG can disrupt the electrostatic intuitive inside hem agglutinin subunits that influences its soundness and movement, lessens its capacity to intertwine and restraints its contamination power. But HA is not the unique factor that decides the viral virulence and infectivity of the virus. Conclusion A different result shows that a higher incubation time increases the antiviral activity of MET BLG. Sadia Afrin | Rezwan Ahmed Mahedi | Mimona Akter "Antiviral Effects of Beta-Lactoglobulin against Avian Influenza Virus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38098.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/biological-science/microbiology/38098/antiviral-effects-of-betalactoglobulin-against-avian-influenza-virus/sadia-afrin
Christian Walzer
POLICY SEMINAR
Virtual Event - COVID-19: The role of the agriculture-ecosystem health interface
AUG 18, 2020 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT
Supplementary information wind mediated transmission HPAIHarm Kiezebrink
A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.
In this generic overview, you will find the date used in the publication “Modelling the Wind-Borne Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus between Farms”, published February 2012 (http://n2gf.com/?p=2377). For the outbreak of avian influenza A(H7N7) in the Netherlands in 2003, much data are available. The overview gives a description of the data used in the analyses of the mentioned publication:
Epidemiological data
There were 5360 poultry farms in the Netherlands in 2003, for all of which geographical information x is available. For 1531 farms the flocks were culled, for all of these the date of culling Tcull is known. For 227 of the 241 infected farms the date of infection tinf has been estimated, based on mortality data. The remaining 14 farms are hobby farms, defined as farms with less than 300 animals, for which no mortality data are available.
The geographic and temporal data together have previously been used to estimate the critical farm density, i.e. above what density of farms outbreaks are can occur.
Genetic data
The HA, NA and PB2 genes of viral samples from 231 farms have previously been sequenced. Sequence data RNA can be found in the GISAID database under accession numbers EPI ISL 68268-68352, EPI ISL 82373-82472 and EPI ISL 83984-84031. These data have previously been used to give general characteristics of the outbreak, to reconstruct the transmission tree and to assess the public health threat due to mutations of the virus in the animal host.
Meteorological data
Available meteorological data include wind speed wv and direction wdir (with a ten degree precision) and the fraction of time r without precipitation for every hour of every day of the outbreak, measured at five weather stations close to the infected farms. These data are available from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute at www.knmi.nl.
The role of treatment and counseling in an HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis...iosrjce
HIV/AIDS remains one of the leading causes of death in the world with its effects most devastating in
Sub Saharan Africa due to its dual infection with opportunistic infections especially malaria and tuberculosis.
This study presents a co infection deterministic model defined by a system of ordinary differential equations for
HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The HIV/AIDS malaria co infection sub model is analyzed to determine
the conditions for the stability of the equilibria points and assess the role of treatment and counseling in
controlling the spread of the infections. This study shows that treatment of malaria a lone even in the absence of
HIV/AIDS, may not eliminate malaria from the community therefore strategies for the reduction of malaria
infections in humans should not only target malaria treatment but also the reduction of mosquito biting rate.
The study showed that counseling is the most sensitive parameter in the spread of HIV/AIDS - malaria co
infections, therefore effective counseling strategy is very useful in controlling the spread of the HIV/AIDS and
malaria co infections. The study further showed that ARV treatment and counseling for HIV/AIDS infectives
have no effect on the spread of malaria. Finally the HIV/AIDS malaria model undergoes backward bifurcation
which is favoured by the occurrence of high mosquito biting rate.
Modeling the Effect of Variation of Recruitment Rate on the Transmission Dyna...IOSR Journals
In this Paper, the effect of the variation of recruitment rate on the transmission dynamics of
tuberculosis was studied by modifying an existing model. While the recruitment rate into the susceptible class of
the existing model is constant, in our modified model we used a varying recruitment rate. The models were
analyzed analytically and numerically and these results were compared. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE)
state of the existing model was found to be
,0,0,0
, the DFE of the modified model was found to be
( ,0,0,0) * S where * S is arbitrary. While all the eigenvalue of the existing model are negative, one of the
eigenvalues of the modified model is zero. The basic reproduction number o R of both models are established to
be the same. The numerical experiments show a gradual decline in the infected and exposed populations as the
recruitment rates increase in both models but the decline is more in the modified model than in the existing
model. This implies that eradication will be achieved faster using the model with a varying recruitment rate.
Dossier transmission: Transmission of Avian Influenza Virus to DogsHarm Kiezebrink
Avian influenza was found in a dog on a farm in South Gyeongsang Province amid growing concerns that the disease could spread to other animals, officials the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said. The dog ― one of three at a duck farm in Goseong-gun, South Gyeongsang Province ― had antigens for the highly pathogenic H5N8 strain of bird flu, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said. The disease affected the farm on Jan. 23.
Since the first case of a dog being infected with the poultry virus in March 2014, there have been 55 dogs found with antibodies to the bird flu virus. The antibody means the immune system of the dogs eliminated the virus. This is the first time bird flu has been found in a dog in Korea through the detection of antigens.
“None of these dogs had shown symptoms. No antigens or antibodies for the virus were found in the two other dogs, which means that dog-to-dog transmission is unlikely to have happened,” quarantine officials said.
The ministry suspected that the dog may have eaten infected animals at the farm. All poultry and dogs at the concerned farm were slaughtered as part of the preventive measures right after the farm was reported to have been infected with the disease, officials said.
Meanwhile, quarantine officials rejected the possibility of viral transmission to humans. According to the ministry’s report, about 450 workers at infected farms across the country had been given an antigen test, with none showing signs of infection. None of Korea’s 20,000 farm workers have reported any symptoms so far, officials added.
“It is thought that infected dogs do not show symptoms of the disease as they are naturally resistant to bird flu,” the ministry said. Meanwhile, the Agriculture Ministry has toughened the quarantine measures in Goseong-gun. The region is a frequented by migratory birds, which are suspected to have spread the viral disease.
Dr. Robert Tauxe - Antimicrobial Resistance and The Human-Animal Interface: T...John Blue
Antimicrobial Resistance and The Human-Animal Interface: The Public Health Concerns - Dr. Robert Tauxe, Deputy Director, Division of Foodborne, Waterborne and Environmental Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, from the 2014 NIAA Symposium on Antibiotics Use and Resistance: Moving Forward Through Shared Stewardship, November 12-14, 2014, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-niaa-antibiotics-moving-forward-through-shared-stewardship
H5N8 virus dutch outbreak (2014) linked to sequences of strains from asiaHarm Kiezebrink
Genetic analysis of influenza A(H5N8) virus from the Netherlands indicates that the virus probably was spread by migratory wild birds from Asia, possibly through overlapping flyways and common breeding sites in Siberia. In addition to the outbreak in the Netherlands, several other outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) virus infections were reported in Europe at the end of 2014 after exponentially increasing deaths occurred in chicken and turkey flocks.
Genetic sequences submitted to the EpiFlu database indicated that the viruses from Europe showed a strong similarity to viruses isolated earlier in 2014 in South Korea, China, and Japan. An H5N8 virus isolated from a wigeon in Russia in September 2014 is located in the phylogenetic tree near the node of all sequences for H5N8 viruses from Europe.
In regard to time, this location fits the hypothesized route of H5N8 virus introduction into Europe. Furthermore, for several reasons, it is highly likely that the introduction of HPAI (H5N8) virus into the indoor-layer farm in the Netherlands occurred via indirect contact.
First, despite intensive monitoring, H5N8 viruses have never been detected in commercial poultry or wild birds in the Netherlands.
Second, when the virus was detected, the Netherlands had no direct trade contact with other European countries or Asia that might explain a route of introduction.
Third, because of the severity of disease in galliforms, outbreaks of H5N8 in the Netherlands before November 2014 would have been noticed.
Outbreak of High Patogen Avian Influenza H5N8 in GermanyHarm Kiezebrink
Germany has reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N8 in fattening turkeys in North East Germany
(Mecklenburg - Western Pomerania). Increased mortality was observed in one of the six sheds of 15 week old birds for fattening (total number of turkeys on the premises ~ 31,000 of which each shed contained 5,000).
International Journal of Engineering Research and Applications (IJERA) is an open access online peer reviewed international journal that publishes research and review articles in the fields of Computer Science, Neural Networks, Electrical Engineering, Software Engineering, Information Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Chemical Engineering, Plastic Engineering, Food Technology, Textile Engineering, Nano Technology & science, Power Electronics, Electronics & Communication Engineering, Computational mathematics, Image processing, Civil Engineering, Structural Engineering, Environmental Engineering, VLSI Testing & Low Power VLSI Design etc.
Antiviral Effects of Beta Lactoglobulin against Avian Influenza Virusijtsrd
Introduction The avian virus is an Influenza A virus that spread widely among human through direct or indirect contact with infected birds or poultry. But a totally new pandemic of avian virus those are becoming resistant to drugs by changing their genomes may be prevented by antiviral medicines and vaccines. Objective For this purpose ß lactoglobulin is esterified with various alcohols over different circumstances like acidity, protein intentness, water substance, time, temperature, etc. Methodology Methylated ß lactoglobulin provides antiviral activities against human flu infection subtype H3N2, subtype H1N1, and subtype H5N1. The impact of this study is viral HA Hemagglutinin action is repressed by the imposition of different convergences of MET BLG depending upon their distinctive concentration. Result A large number of positive charges on the MET BLG can disrupt the electrostatic intuitive inside hem agglutinin subunits that influences its soundness and movement, lessens its capacity to intertwine and restraints its contamination power. But HA is not the unique factor that decides the viral virulence and infectivity of the virus. Conclusion A different result shows that a higher incubation time increases the antiviral activity of MET BLG. Sadia Afrin | Rezwan Ahmed Mahedi | Mimona Akter "Antiviral Effects of Beta-Lactoglobulin against Avian Influenza Virus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38098.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/biological-science/microbiology/38098/antiviral-effects-of-betalactoglobulin-against-avian-influenza-virus/sadia-afrin
Christian Walzer
POLICY SEMINAR
Virtual Event - COVID-19: The role of the agriculture-ecosystem health interface
AUG 18, 2020 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT
Supplementary information wind mediated transmission HPAIHarm Kiezebrink
A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.
In this generic overview, you will find the date used in the publication “Modelling the Wind-Borne Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus between Farms”, published February 2012 (http://n2gf.com/?p=2377). For the outbreak of avian influenza A(H7N7) in the Netherlands in 2003, much data are available. The overview gives a description of the data used in the analyses of the mentioned publication:
Epidemiological data
There were 5360 poultry farms in the Netherlands in 2003, for all of which geographical information x is available. For 1531 farms the flocks were culled, for all of these the date of culling Tcull is known. For 227 of the 241 infected farms the date of infection tinf has been estimated, based on mortality data. The remaining 14 farms are hobby farms, defined as farms with less than 300 animals, for which no mortality data are available.
The geographic and temporal data together have previously been used to estimate the critical farm density, i.e. above what density of farms outbreaks are can occur.
Genetic data
The HA, NA and PB2 genes of viral samples from 231 farms have previously been sequenced. Sequence data RNA can be found in the GISAID database under accession numbers EPI ISL 68268-68352, EPI ISL 82373-82472 and EPI ISL 83984-84031. These data have previously been used to give general characteristics of the outbreak, to reconstruct the transmission tree and to assess the public health threat due to mutations of the virus in the animal host.
Meteorological data
Available meteorological data include wind speed wv and direction wdir (with a ten degree precision) and the fraction of time r without precipitation for every hour of every day of the outbreak, measured at five weather stations close to the infected farms. These data are available from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute at www.knmi.nl.
The role of treatment and counseling in an HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis...iosrjce
HIV/AIDS remains one of the leading causes of death in the world with its effects most devastating in
Sub Saharan Africa due to its dual infection with opportunistic infections especially malaria and tuberculosis.
This study presents a co infection deterministic model defined by a system of ordinary differential equations for
HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The HIV/AIDS malaria co infection sub model is analyzed to determine
the conditions for the stability of the equilibria points and assess the role of treatment and counseling in
controlling the spread of the infections. This study shows that treatment of malaria a lone even in the absence of
HIV/AIDS, may not eliminate malaria from the community therefore strategies for the reduction of malaria
infections in humans should not only target malaria treatment but also the reduction of mosquito biting rate.
The study showed that counseling is the most sensitive parameter in the spread of HIV/AIDS - malaria co
infections, therefore effective counseling strategy is very useful in controlling the spread of the HIV/AIDS and
malaria co infections. The study further showed that ARV treatment and counseling for HIV/AIDS infectives
have no effect on the spread of malaria. Finally the HIV/AIDS malaria model undergoes backward bifurcation
which is favoured by the occurrence of high mosquito biting rate.
Abstract
Prevalence and incidence are measures that are used for monitoring the occurrence of a disease. Prevalence can be computed from readily available cross-sectional data but incidence is traditionally computed from longitudinal data from longitudinal studies. Longitudinal studies are characterised by financial and logistical problems where as cross-sectional studies are easy to conduct. This paper introduces a new method for estimating HIV incidence from grouped cross-sectional sero-prevalence data from settings where antiretroviral therapy is provided to those who are eligible according to recommended criteria for the administration of such drugs.
The SIR Model and the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Guinea, Liberia an...CSCJournals
This research presents a mathematical model aimed at understanding the spread of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) using the standard SIR model. In modelling infectious disease dynamics, it is necessary to investigate whether the disease spread could attain an epidemic level or it could be wiped out. Data from the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak is used and Guinea where the outbreak started is considered in this study. A three dimensional non-linear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically using the Runge-Kutta 4th order method in the Vensim Personal Learning Edition Software. It is shown from the study that, with public health interventions, the effective reproductive number can be reduced making it possible for the outbreak to die out. It is also shown mathematically that the epidemic can only die out when there are no new infected individuals in the population.
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Modeling and Simulation of Spread and Effect of Malaria EpidemicWaqas Tariq
The purpose of this paper is to consider malaria infection (A) and the control of malaria (B) as the two sets of soldiers engage in a war. The principal objectives are to see if it is possible with time to reduce and eradicate malaria in our environment taking reasonable precaution. The methodology approach is to model a mathematical equation using battling method approach to find the time(t) that control malaria in our environment will conquer the malaria infection i.e. when A(t)=0. The number of provided facilities (n) for the protection of malaria is also considered and varied. The result shows that as the number of malaria control increases the control time is decreasing.
Tarannum Yasmin1*, Krishan Nandan2
1Associate Professor, Department of Microbiology, Katihar Medical College Katihar, Bihar, India
2Assistant Professor, Department of Microbiology, Katihar Medical College Katihar, Bihar, India
*Address for Correspondence: Dr Tarannum Yasmin, Associate Professor, Department of Microbiology, Katihar
Medical College, Katihar, Bihar, India
Received: 15 September 2016/Revised: 03 October 2016/Accepted: 22 October 2016
ABSTRACT- INTRODUCTION- HIV/AIDS pandemic is responsible for the resurgence of Tuberculosis worldwide,
resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. Co-infection with HIV infection leads to difficulty in both the diagnosis
and treatment of Tuberculosis, increased risk of death, treatment failure and relapse.
OBJECTIVE- The present study highlights the correlation of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV positive cases and its
association with CD4 count.
MATERIAL & METHODS- A total of 72 known case of HIV were screened for tuberculosis infection by clinical
examination, radiology & ZN staining.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS- From our study 60 (83.33%) were diagnosed as tuberculosis and 12 (16.67%) were
negative. More common HIV infection in case of male 48 (66.67%). Out of 60 tuberculosis infection 53 (88.33%) were
diagnosed as Pulmonary Tuberculosis and 7 (11.67%) were diagnosed as Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis. The result of
study emphasizes that co-infection of tuberculosis in HIV/AIDS patient is a concern. There is direct correlation between
CD4 counts depletion and Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV/AIDS patients.
Key-words- Pulmonary Tuberculosis, HIV, AIDS, CD4 count
Incidence of Tuberculosis in HIV Sero-positive Patients at HIV Clinic at Kamp...PUBLISHERJOURNAL
Incidence of Tuberculosis in HIV Sero-positive Patients at HIV Clinic at Kampala International University Teaching Hospital, Bushenyi District
Okello, Andrew
School of Allied Health Sciences Kampala International University-Western Campus
________________________________________
ABSTRACT
This study on the prevalence of TB among HIV sero-positive was carried at the HIV CLINIC of Kampala International University Teaching Hospital (KIUTH), Ishaka Bushenyi district. A retrospective cross-sectional study design was used to conduct this research. The study targeted all patients attending KIUTH HIV/TB clinic. A standard structured and semi-structured questionnaires were designed and pre-tested for validity and reliability at Kampala International University Teaching Hospital HIV/Tuberculosis clinic before being used for data collection. Data collection started by recruitment of qualified research assistants, appropriate training and orientation of the interviewers before the survey for example when reading the questions. Quantitative methods of data analysis was used in which data was presented in form of bar charts, graphs and tables. The prevalence of TB among HIV sero-positive patients attending HIV clinic at KIUTH stands at 8.06 per 100 participants. The study found that generally, people are aware about the modes of transmission of TB but there is still need for more awareness. Many patients are still not certain whether TB is curable in HIV patients. As seen from the above study, most of the people are not yet aware whether HIV goes hand in hand with tuberculosis. The prevalence of TB in HIV sero-positive attending HIV clinic at KIUTH is high. Generally, TB is affecting patients of all ages and most patients are still not aware if TB in HIV is curable. Most patients have a perception that all TB patients have HIV. Health workers in HIV clinic of KIU-TH should teach patients the modes of transmission and prevention of TB. KIUTH also need to provide easy access to TB screening services to patients. There is need for financial support by the government to the unemployed patients and low-income earners in order to curb TB infections.
Keywords: Tuberculosis, HIV, Sero-positive, Bushenyi District
________________________________________
An Examination of Effectuation Dimension as Financing Practice of Small and M...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Does Goods and Services Tax (GST) Leads to Indian Economic Development?iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Childhood Factors that influence success in later lifeiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Emotional Intelligence and Work Performance Relationship: A Study on Sales Pe...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Customer’s Acceptance of Internet Banking in Dubaiiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
A Study of Employee Satisfaction relating to Job Security & Working Hours amo...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Consumer Perspectives on Brand Preference: A Choice Based Model Approachiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Student`S Approach towards Social Network Sitesiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Broadcast Management in Nigeria: The systems approach as an imperativeiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
A Study on Retailer’s Perception on Soya Products with Special Reference to T...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
A Study Factors Influence on Organisation Citizenship Behaviour in Corporate ...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Consumers’ Behaviour on Sony Xperia: A Case Study on Bangladeshiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Design of a Balanced Scorecard on Nonprofit Organizations (Study on Yayasan P...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Public Sector Reforms and Outsourcing Services in Nigeria: An Empirical Evalu...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Media Innovations and its Impact on Brand awareness & Considerationiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Customer experience in supermarkets and hypermarkets – A comparative studyiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Social Media and Small Businesses: A Combinational Strategic Approach under t...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Secretarial Performance and the Gender Question (A Study of Selected Tertiary...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Implementation of Quality Management principles at Zimbabwe Open University (...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Organizational Conflicts Management In Selected Organizaions In Lagos State, ...iosrjce
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
Travis Hills' Endeavors in Minnesota: Fostering Environmental and Economic Pr...Travis Hills MN
Travis Hills of Minnesota developed a method to convert waste into high-value dry fertilizer, significantly enriching soil quality. By providing farmers with a valuable resource derived from waste, Travis Hills helps enhance farm profitability while promoting environmental stewardship. Travis Hills' sustainable practices lead to cost savings and increased revenue for farmers by improving resource efficiency and reducing waste.
Toxic effects of heavy metals : Lead and Arsenicsanjana502982
Heavy metals are naturally occuring metallic chemical elements that have relatively high density, and are toxic at even low concentrations. All toxic metals are termed as heavy metals irrespective of their atomic mass and density, eg. arsenic, lead, mercury, cadmium, thallium, chromium, etc.
hematic appreciation test is a psychological assessment tool used to measure an individual's appreciation and understanding of specific themes or topics. This test helps to evaluate an individual's ability to connect different ideas and concepts within a given theme, as well as their overall comprehension and interpretation skills. The results of the test can provide valuable insights into an individual's cognitive abilities, creativity, and critical thinking skills
Professional air quality monitoring systems provide immediate, on-site data for analysis, compliance, and decision-making.
Monitor common gases, weather parameters, particulates.
DERIVATION OF MODIFIED BERNOULLI EQUATION WITH VISCOUS EFFECTS AND TERMINAL V...Wasswaderrick3
In this book, we use conservation of energy techniques on a fluid element to derive the Modified Bernoulli equation of flow with viscous or friction effects. We derive the general equation of flow/ velocity and then from this we derive the Pouiselle flow equation, the transition flow equation and the turbulent flow equation. In the situations where there are no viscous effects , the equation reduces to the Bernoulli equation. From experimental results, we are able to include other terms in the Bernoulli equation. We also look at cases where pressure gradients exist. We use the Modified Bernoulli equation to derive equations of flow rate for pipes of different cross sectional areas connected together. We also extend our techniques of energy conservation to a sphere falling in a viscous medium under the effect of gravity. We demonstrate Stokes equation of terminal velocity and turbulent flow equation. We look at a way of calculating the time taken for a body to fall in a viscous medium. We also look at the general equation of terminal velocity.
Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intellige...University of Maribor
Slides from talk:
Aleš Zamuda: Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intelligent Systems.
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Inter-Society Networking Panel GRSS/MTT-S/CIS Panel Session: Promoting Connection and Cooperation
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
Phenomics assisted breeding in crop improvementIshaGoswami9
As the population is increasing and will reach about 9 billion upto 2050. Also due to climate change, it is difficult to meet the food requirement of such a large population. Facing the challenges presented by resource shortages, climate
change, and increasing global population, crop yield and quality need to be improved in a sustainable way over the coming decades. Genetic improvement by breeding is the best way to increase crop productivity. With the rapid progression of functional
genomics, an increasing number of crop genomes have been sequenced and dozens of genes influencing key agronomic traits have been identified. However, current genome sequence information has not been adequately exploited for understanding
the complex characteristics of multiple gene, owing to a lack of crop phenotypic data. Efficient, automatic, and accurate technologies and platforms that can capture phenotypic data that can
be linked to genomics information for crop improvement at all growth stages have become as important as genotyping. Thus,
high-throughput phenotyping has become the major bottleneck restricting crop breeding. Plant phenomics has been defined as the high-throughput, accurate acquisition and analysis of multi-dimensional phenotypes
during crop growing stages at the organism level, including the cell, tissue, organ, individual plant, plot, and field levels. With the rapid development of novel sensors, imaging technology,
and analysis methods, numerous infrastructure platforms have been developed for phenotyping.
Observation of Io’s Resurfacing via Plume Deposition Using Ground-based Adapt...Sérgio Sacani
Since volcanic activity was first discovered on Io from Voyager images in 1979, changes
on Io’s surface have been monitored from both spacecraft and ground-based telescopes.
Here, we present the highest spatial resolution images of Io ever obtained from a groundbased telescope. These images, acquired by the SHARK-VIS instrument on the Large
Binocular Telescope, show evidence of a major resurfacing event on Io’s trailing hemisphere. When compared to the most recent spacecraft images, the SHARK-VIS images
show that a plume deposit from a powerful eruption at Pillan Patera has covered part
of the long-lived Pele plume deposit. Although this type of resurfacing event may be common on Io, few have been detected due to the rarity of spacecraft visits and the previously low spatial resolution available from Earth-based telescopes. The SHARK-VIS instrument ushers in a new era of high resolution imaging of Io’s surface using adaptive
optics at visible wavelengths.
The use of Nauplii and metanauplii artemia in aquaculture (brine shrimp).pptxMAGOTI ERNEST
Although Artemia has been known to man for centuries, its use as a food for the culture of larval organisms apparently began only in the 1930s, when several investigators found that it made an excellent food for newly hatched fish larvae (Litvinenko et al., 2023). As aquaculture developed in the 1960s and ‘70s, the use of Artemia also became more widespread, due both to its convenience and to its nutritional value for larval organisms (Arenas-Pardo et al., 2024). The fact that Artemia dormant cysts can be stored for long periods in cans, and then used as an off-the-shelf food requiring only 24 h of incubation makes them the most convenient, least labor-intensive, live food available for aquaculture (Sorgeloos & Roubach, 2021). The nutritional value of Artemia, especially for marine organisms, is not constant, but varies both geographically and temporally. During the last decade, however, both the causes of Artemia nutritional variability and methods to improve poorquality Artemia have been identified (Loufi et al., 2024).
Brine shrimp (Artemia spp.) are used in marine aquaculture worldwide. Annually, more than 2,000 metric tons of dry cysts are used for cultivation of fish, crustacean, and shellfish larva. Brine shrimp are important to aquaculture because newly hatched brine shrimp nauplii (larvae) provide a food source for many fish fry (Mozanzadeh et al., 2021). Culture and harvesting of brine shrimp eggs represents another aspect of the aquaculture industry. Nauplii and metanauplii of Artemia, commonly known as brine shrimp, play a crucial role in aquaculture due to their nutritional value and suitability as live feed for many aquatic species, particularly in larval stages (Sorgeloos & Roubach, 2021).
Comparing Evolved Extractive Text Summary Scores of Bidirectional Encoder Rep...University of Maribor
Slides from:
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Track: Artificial Intelligence
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
Nucleophilic Addition of carbonyl compounds.pptxSSR02
Nucleophilic addition is the most important reaction of carbonyls. Not just aldehydes and ketones, but also carboxylic acid derivatives in general.
Carbonyls undergo addition reactions with a large range of nucleophiles.
Comparing the relative basicity of the nucleophile and the product is extremely helpful in determining how reversible the addition reaction is. Reactions with Grignards and hydrides are irreversible. Reactions with weak bases like halides and carboxylates generally don’t happen.
Electronic effects (inductive effects, electron donation) have a large impact on reactivity.
Large groups adjacent to the carbonyl will slow the rate of reaction.
Neutral nucleophiles can also add to carbonyls, although their additions are generally slower and more reversible. Acid catalysis is sometimes employed to increase the rate of addition.
ESR spectroscopy in liquid food and beverages.pptxPRIYANKA PATEL
With increasing population, people need to rely on packaged food stuffs. Packaging of food materials requires the preservation of food. There are various methods for the treatment of food to preserve them and irradiation treatment of food is one of them. It is the most common and the most harmless method for the food preservation as it does not alter the necessary micronutrients of food materials. Although irradiated food doesn’t cause any harm to the human health but still the quality assessment of food is required to provide consumers with necessary information about the food. ESR spectroscopy is the most sophisticated way to investigate the quality of the food and the free radicals induced during the processing of the food. ESR spin trapping technique is useful for the detection of highly unstable radicals in the food. The antioxidant capability of liquid food and beverages in mainly performed by spin trapping technique.
Deep Behavioral Phenotyping in Systems Neuroscience for Functional Atlasing a...Ana Luísa Pinho
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides means to characterize brain activations in response to behavior. However, cognitive neuroscience has been limited to group-level effects referring to the performance of specific tasks. To obtain the functional profile of elementary cognitive mechanisms, the combination of brain responses to many tasks is required. Yet, to date, both structural atlases and parcellation-based activations do not fully account for cognitive function and still present several limitations. Further, they do not adapt overall to individual characteristics. In this talk, I will give an account of deep-behavioral phenotyping strategies, namely data-driven methods in large task-fMRI datasets, to optimize functional brain-data collection and improve inference of effects-of-interest related to mental processes. Key to this approach is the employment of fast multi-functional paradigms rich on features that can be well parametrized and, consequently, facilitate the creation of psycho-physiological constructs to be modelled with imaging data. Particular emphasis will be given to music stimuli when studying high-order cognitive mechanisms, due to their ecological nature and quality to enable complex behavior compounded by discrete entities. I will also discuss how deep-behavioral phenotyping and individualized models applied to neuroimaging data can better account for the subject-specific organization of domain-general cognitive systems in the human brain. Finally, the accumulation of functional brain signatures brings the possibility to clarify relationships among tasks and create a univocal link between brain systems and mental functions through: (1) the development of ontologies proposing an organization of cognitive processes; and (2) brain-network taxonomies describing functional specialization. To this end, tools to improve commensurability in cognitive science are necessary, such as public repositories, ontology-based platforms and automated meta-analysis tools. I will thus discuss some brain-atlasing resources currently under development, and their applicability in cognitive as well as clinical neuroscience.
The ability to recreate computational results with minimal effort and actionable metrics provides a solid foundation for scientific research and software development. When people can replicate an analysis at the touch of a button using open-source software, open data, and methods to assess and compare proposals, it significantly eases verification of results, engagement with a diverse range of contributors, and progress. However, we have yet to fully achieve this; there are still many sociotechnical frictions.
Inspired by David Donoho's vision, this talk aims to revisit the three crucial pillars of frictionless reproducibility (data sharing, code sharing, and competitive challenges) with the perspective of deep software variability.
Our observation is that multiple layers — hardware, operating systems, third-party libraries, software versions, input data, compile-time options, and parameters — are subject to variability that exacerbates frictions but is also essential for achieving robust, generalizable results and fostering innovation. I will first review the literature, providing evidence of how the complex variability interactions across these layers affect qualitative and quantitative software properties, thereby complicating the reproduction and replication of scientific studies in various fields.
I will then present some software engineering and AI techniques that can support the strategic exploration of variability spaces. These include the use of abstractions and models (e.g., feature models), sampling strategies (e.g., uniform, random), cost-effective measurements (e.g., incremental build of software configurations), and dimensionality reduction methods (e.g., transfer learning, feature selection, software debloating).
I will finally argue that deep variability is both the problem and solution of frictionless reproducibility, calling the software science community to develop new methods and tools to manage variability and foster reproducibility in software systems.
Exposé invité Journées Nationales du GDR GPL 2024
Deep Software Variability and Frictionless Reproducibility
The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and malaria
1. IOSR Journal of Mathematics (IOSR-JM)
e-ISSN: 2278-5728, p-ISSN: 2319-765X. Volume 11, Issue 6 Ver. IV (Nov. - Dec. 2015), PP 33-43
www.iosrjournals.org
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 33 | Page
The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a
co infection model of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and malaria.
Mark O. Okongo.
Physical Sciences, Chuka University, Kenya
Abstract: This study presents a co infection deterministic model defined by a system of ordinary
differential equations for HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. The model is analyzed to determine
the conditions for the stability of the equilibria points and investigate the possibility of backward
bifurcation. The study shows that the local disease free equilibrium is stable when the reproduction
number is less than unity but the global stability of the disease free equilibrium is not guaranteed. The
model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation which posses a challenge to the design of
effective control measures.
Keywords: Bifurcation, Counseling, HIV/AIDS - TB and Malaria, Stability,Treatment.
I. Introduction
The basic reproduction number 0R is defined as the average number of secondary infections an
infectious individual would cause over his infectious period in an entirely susceptible population. When 0R <
1, then an infectious individual is causing, on average, less than one new infection and thus the disease
does not invade the population. On the other hand, when 0R > 1 then an infectious individual is causing, on
average, more than one new infection and thus the disease invades and persist in the population. HIV/AIDS
remains one of the leading causes of death in the world with its effects most devastating in sub Saharan Africa.
One of the key factors that fuels the high incidence of HIV/AIDS in Sub Saharan Africa is its dual infection
with malaria and tuberculosis [16]. Audu et al. [4] investigated the possible impact of co infections of
tuberculosis and malaria on the CD4+ cell counts of HIV/AIDS patients and established the following: The
healthy control group recorded a median CD4+ cell counts of 789 cells/ul (789 cells per mm3
of blood); subjects
infected with HIV/AIDS only recorded a median CD4+ cell counts of 386 cell/ul; subjects co infected
with HIV/AIDS and TB recorded a median CD4+ cell counts of 268 cell/ul; subjects co infected with IV/AIDS
and malaria recorded a median CD4+ cell counts of 211 cell/ul and those co infected with HIV/AIDS, malaria
and TB recorded the lowest median CD4+ cell counts of 182 cell/ul. Motivated by these findings, a
deterministic model exploring the joint dynamics of the simultaneous co infections of HIV/AIDS, TB and
malaria incorporating treatment and counseling is presented and analysed for stability.
II. Model Formulation And Description
To study the dynamics of HIV/AIDS, malaria and TB co infection, a deterministic model is formulated
described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The model sub-divide the human population into the
following epidemiological classes: SH(t) - Susceptible population at time t, IM(t) - Malaria infectives at time t,
IH(t) - HIV cases at time t, IA(t) - AIDS cases at time t, IT(t) - TB cases at time t. IHM(t) - Those co infected with
malaria and HIV at time t, IAM(t) - Those co infected with malaria and AIDS at time t, IMT(t) - Those co infected
with malaria and TB at time t, IHT(t) - Those co infected with HIV and TB at time t, IAT(t) - Those co infected
with AIDS and TB at time t, IHMT(t) - Those co infected with HIV, Malaria and TB at time t, IAMT(t) - Those co
infected with AIDS, Malaria and TB at time t. The total human population (NH(t)) is therefore denoted by:
NH(t) = SH(t) + IM(t) + IH(t) + IA(t) + IT(t) + IHM(t) + IAM(t) + IMT(t) + IHT(t) + IAT(t) + IHMT(t) + IAMT(t).
The vector (mosquito) population at time t denoted by NV(t) is sub-divided into the following classes:
SV(t) - Vector susceptibles at time t, IV(t) – Vector infectives at time t. The total vector population NV(t) is
given by NV(t) = SV(t) + IV(t).
2.1 Definition Of Parameters
It is assumed that susceptible humans are recruited into the population at a constant rate either by birth
or recovery from malaria and TB. They acquire infection with either HIV/AIDS, malaria or TB and move to the
infectious classes. Susceptible mosquitoes are recruited into the mosquito population at a constant rate. They
acquire malaria infection following a blood meal feeding on infected malaria humans, becomes infectious and
move to the infectious class .
2. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 34 | Page
The recruitment rate of humans into the susceptible population is denoted by ΛH while that of vectors
(mosquitoes) is denoted by ΛV and are both assumed to be constant. The natural death rate of humans is given
by dn while that of vectors is given by dv. The death rates due to AIDS, malaria and TB in humans are da, dm and
dt respectively. The parameters dam, dmt, dat and damt account for the combined death rates in the IAM, IMT, IAT and
IAMT classes respectively. The parameters rm and rt are the recovery rates from malaria and TB respectively due
to effective treatment. It is assumed that the recovered individuals do not acquire temporary immunity to either
or both diseases thus become susceptible again. The model assumes that susceptible humans cannot
simultaneously get infected with malaria, HIV/AIDS and TB since the transmission mechanics are completely
different for the three diseases. The model further assumes that humans acquire HIV/AIDS through sexual
contacts between an infective and a susceptible. The average force of infection for HIV/AIDS denoted λah is
given by
where βa is the average transmission probability of HIV/AIDS between an infective and a susceptible per sexual
contact and c1 is the per capita number of sexual contacts of susceptible humans with HIV/AIDS infected
individuals per unit time. The parameter δ measures the effectiveness of counseling through condom use and a
reduction in the number of sexual partners, where 0 ≤ δ ≤ 1. Effective counseling reduces the value of the
parameter c 1. The model assumes that the classes IHMT, IA, IAM, IAT and IAMT do not transmit the virus due to
acute ill health and noticeable AIDS symptoms.
Define α1 as the number of bites per human per mosquito (biting rate of mosquitoes), βm as the transmission
probability of malaria in humans per bite thus the force of infection with malaria for humans, denoted λmh is
given by
whereas the average force of infection with malaria for vectors, denoted λmv is given by
where βv is the transmission probability of malaria in vectors from any infected human. Finally the average force
of infection for TB denoted λth is given by
where βt is the transmission probability of TB in humans and c2 is the average per capita contact rate of
susceptible humans with TB infected individuals. The rate of progression from HIV to AIDS for the untreated
HIV cases is p. The parameters θ1p, θ2p and θ3p account for increased rates of progression to AIDS for
individuals co infected with HIV - TB, HIV - malaria and HIV malaria - TB respectively where θ1 < θ 2 < θ 3.
Define α as the proportion of the HIV/AIDS infectives receiving effective treatment. This involves the
administration of ARV‘S that keeps the HIV patients from progressing to AIDS while transferring the AIDS
patients back to the HIV classes. The modification parameters eh
m, eh
t and eh
mt account for the reduced
susceptibility to infection with HIV for individuals in the IM, IT and the IMT classes respectively due to reduced
sexual activity as a result of ill health where 1h
me , 1h
te , eh
m < 1, 1h
mte . The parameters
m
ae ,
m
he ,
m
hte ,
m
ate , account for the increased susceptibility to infection with malaria for individuals already infected with
AIDS, HIV, HIV - TB and AIDS - TB respectively due to suppressed immune system where em
a > 1, em
h > 1,
em
ht > 1, em
at > 1. It is also clear that em
a < em
at and em
h < em
ht. The parameters et
h, et
a, et
mh and et
am
account for the increased susceptibility to infection with TB for individuals already infected with HIV, AIDS,
HIV - malaria and AIDS - malaria respectively due to suppressed immune system where et
h > 1, et
a > 1,
et
hm > 1, et
am > 1. Again et
h < et
hm and et
a < et
am. Malaria and TB does not lead to the depletion of the CD4+
cell counts, however their association with HIV/AIDS leads to a significant reduction in the CD4+
cell counts
within an individual leading to faster progression to AIDS. Combining all the aforementioned assumptions and
3. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 35 | Page
definitions, the model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria is given by the following
system of differential equations.
2.2 The Model Equations
2.3 POSITIVITY AND BOUNDEDNESS OF SOLUTIONS
The model system 2.2.1 describes living populations therefore the associated state variables are non-
negative for all time t > 0. The solutions of this model with positive initial data therefore remain positive for all
4. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 36 | Page
time t > 0.
Proof. Consider the first equation of 2.2.1 at time t
then
From the second equation of 2.2.1 at time t
then
We can proceed in a similar manner and show that all the state variables are positive for all time t.
be any solution with non-negative initial conditions. The rate of change of the total human population
with time is given by:
5. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 37 | Page
III. Local Stability Of The Disease Free Equilibrium
In the absence of infection by all the diseases, the model 2.2.1, has a steady state solution called
the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) given by
Define Fi as the rate of appearance of new infections in the class or compartment i and Vi = Vi
−
− Vi
+
, where
Vi
−
is the rate of transfer of individuals out of compartment i, and Vi
+
is the rate of transfer of individuals into
compartment i by all other means. The Jacobian of Fi and Vi at the disease-free equilibrium is given by:
6. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 38 | Page
7. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 39 | Page
3.1 Parameter Values For The Hiv/Aids Malaria Model
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DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 40 | Page
Table 1
Lemma 2.3. The DFE of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria model is locally asymptotically stable (LAS)
if RHMT < 1, and unstable otherwise.
Lemma 2.3 is illustrated numerically in figure 1 using RH = 0.51, RT = 0.69 and RM = 0.50.
Figure 1
Biologically, lemma 2.3 implies that the infections can be eliminated from the community when RHMT
< 1. This is only true if the initial sizes of the subpopulations of the model are in the basin of attraction of
E0
htm.
To ensure that elimination of the virus is independent of the initial sizes of the subpopulations, it is
necessary to show that the DFE is globally asymptotically stable.
3.2 Global Stability Of Disease-Free Equilibrium (Dfe)
The global asymptotic stability (GAS) of the disease-free state of the model is investigated using the
theorem by Castillo-Chavez et al. (2002). The model is re written as follows:
where the components of the column-vector X ∈ Rm
denote the uninfected population and the components
of Z ∈ Rn
denote the infected population. E0
= (X∗, 0), denotes the disease-free equilibrium of this system.
The fixed point E0
= (X∗, 0) is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium for this system provided that R0
< 1 (locally asymptotically stable) and the following two conditions satisfied:
where P = DZG(X∗, 0) is an M-matrix (the off diagonal elements of P are non negative) and ΩH is the
9. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 41 | Page
region where the model makes biological sense. The disease free equilibrium is now denoted as E0
= (X∗,
0),
Theorem 2.4. The fixed point E0
= (X∗, 0) is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium of system
2.2.1 provided that RHMT < 1 and the assumptions H1 and H2 are satisfied.
This implies that there is the possibility of future disease outbreaks when the conditions favouring the
outbreaks are prevailing due to the phenomenon of backward bifurcation.
3.3 Backward Bifurcation And Stability Of The Endemic Equilibrium
A bifurcation point is a point in parameter space where the number of equilibrium points, or their
stability properties, or both, change. As noted earlier, an infectious disease does not invade a population of the
susceptible population when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The epidemiological implication
of backward bifurcation is that reducing the basic reproduction number to less than unity is not sufficient to
10. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium in a co infection model of HIV/AIDS,…
DOI: 10.9790/5728-11643343 www.iosrjournals.org 42 | Page
control an epidemic. When the basic reproduction number is unity each infectious individual causes one new
infection therefore, whether a disease invades with the basic reproduction number equal to unity will be
determined by whether the basic reproduction number increases or decreases as the disease increases along the
centre manifold. When backward bifurcation occurs, the diseases-free equilibrium may not be globally
asymptotically stable even if the basic reproduction number is less than unity and thus a stable endemic state co-
exists with the diseases-free equilibrium. This is numerically illustrated in figure 2 which shows the total
infected population against time in days using the following parameter values: βa = 0.0129, c1 = 25.6, d = 0.9, dt
= 0.2, rt = 0.03, βm = 0.05, α1 = 0.158, dm = 0.007, dmt = 0.07667, dv = 0.021, rm = 0.99. The other parameter
values are as in table 1.
Figure 2
IV. Conclusion
In summery The local stability of the disease free equilibrium was investigated by Theorem two by
Van, P. and Watmough, J. [26]. The theorem showed that the HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria co infection model
have a disease free equilibrium point which is locally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number
is less than unity. To ensure that elimination of the virus is independent of the initial sizes of the
sub-populations, the global asymptotic stability (GAS) of the disease free state of the model was investigated
using the theorem by Castillo-Chavez et al. [8] and showed that the model posses an unstable global disease free
equilibrium which implies that there is the possibility of future disease outbreaks when the conditions favouring
the outbreaks are prevailing, even though their reproduction numbers is less than unity which results into the
backward bifurcation phenomenon. The theorem by Castillo-Chavez and Song (2004) was employed to
investigate the possible occurrence of backward bifurcation. The epidemiological implication of backward
bifurcation is that reducing the basic reproduction number to less than unity is not sufficient to control an
epidemic. When backward bifurcation occurs, then a stable endemic state co-exists with the diseases-free
equilibrium which posses a challenge to the design of effective control measures to be adopted.
Acknowledgements
The author is very grateful to Prof. Adiel M. Magana of Chuka University - Kenya, for many excellent
comments that have enhanced the model as well as the clarity of the paper
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