A new Government will take office for a five year term from 2015, but what will this mean for the UK housing market? We believe that the next five years will be one of the most crucial for the UK housing market in a generation. The big question is whether we will be any further forward in solving the country’s housing supply crisis. The next Government will hold a powerful and vital key to unlocking this crucially needed supply. In terms of housing market forecasts, we expect home buying demand to rise over the next few years. There are clear headwinds, led by affordability, but there are also many reasons to believe that turnover will increase and that prices will rise. An improving and stable UK economy will be the key driver. Employment will pick up, job security will improve and real incomes will begin to rise. These will all lead to a greater willingness and ability to buy or move. On balance we believe that UK house prices will rise steadily over the next five years, in the order of 3-5% pa. We forecast that transactions across the UK will increase from current levels and then stabilise at around 1.31m pa. And finally, we expect housing completions in England to grow from around 120,000 to 150,000 pa in the next five years.

1. November 2014 jll.co.uk/residential
UK FORECASTS

2. Andrew Frost
Head of UK Residential
November 2014 jll.co.uk/residential
UK FORECASTS

3. The Housing Conundrum Public opinion & what it means
@benatipsosmori
4th November, 2014 Ben Page Chief Executive Ipsos MORI

4. Our Latest Results for JLL
Fieldwork conducted 10-13 October 2014
1,009 GB adults 16-75
conducted online weighted to national profile

5. -80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec-97
Mar-98
Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
Mar-99
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
+4
-46
-56
-48
+23
-64
+12
+34
Irrational Exuberance over the Economy?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Index (get better minus get worse)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Q. Do you think that the long-term economic condition of the economy will improve, stay the same or get worse?

6. House Price Sentiment Mirrors Economy
+9
-2
+7
+19
+15
+15
+20
+33
+40
+64
+66
+65
+66
+62
-28
-32
-48
-14
-32
-9
-6
-19
0
+23
+15
+23
+29
+24
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
HPO
EOI
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower
EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse
Q.Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI (measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork)
Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

7. Base: c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month
And as Market ‘Cools’, Housing’s Salience Dips?
Year
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% mentioning housing as
among/the most important issue(s)
facing GB
UK average house price
Sources: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Halifax House Price Index (All(Mon)NSA)
£67,775
(Mar‘97)
£187,018
(Sep’14)
6% (Mar’97)
10%
(Oct’14)
£200,578
(Jul‘07)
16%
(Jul’07)
% mentioning
£ UK average house price

8. Public Say Prices are too High
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree…. “House prices are currently too high”
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
45
% Strongly Agree
% Tend To Agree
% Tend To Agree (4%)
% Strongly Disagree (1%)
33
14
% Neither Agree/Disagree

9. Seen as Most Important Housing Issue
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014
Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems facing the housing market in Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
House prices are too high
47%
Size of deposits
31%
Lack of social housing
30%
Not enough new homes being built
20%
Rents too high
28%
Too many people from abroad buying homes
21%
Housing benefit changes
14%
Banks not giving out mortgages
15%
Stamp duty is too high
14%
Big homes occupied by 1 or 2 people
5%
Too many second homes
13%
Not enough schemes for renters to get on ladder
12%

10. Only…
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014
8%
Identify Prices And Supply As Top Issues
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL

11. Better Link Prices & Supply In London?
47
39
37
14
7
5
5
3
2
1
1
Over-population/ immigration
Planning/ ability to build/ land availability
Economic backdrop/ lack of financing
Local government policy (e.g. housing allocation)
Renting - poor landlords
Poor housing choice
Poor housing quality
%
Source: Ipsos MORI/London Councils
Base: Londoners agree there is a housing crisis in London (829). 18 - 29 Oct 2013
Government policy incl. welfare reform & legacy of Right to Buy
Affordability of housing/house prices
Buy to let/people buying properties and not living in them
17
Q. And what, if anything, do you think are the main causes of the current housing crisis in London? (spontaneous)
Lack of building/housing supply/ investment

12. “The nearest the British have to a religion” (#2)
Q. If you had a free choice, would you choose to rent accommodation, or would you choose to buy? % Buy
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Pre war
Baby boomers
Gen X
Gen Y
Overall
Aspiration is Strong
Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSAS (NatCen)
19

13. Kids Recognise Problem
Q. Do you think it will be easier or harder for you to buy your own house than it was for your parents?
40%
16%
29%
16%
Harder for me
Easier for me
About the same
Don’t know / not stated
Base: 2,734 11-16 year olds Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (2014)

14. 34%
23%
22%
16%
4%
Q To what extent do you agree or disagree… ‘Rising house prices are a good thing for Britain’?
Base: 1,970 British adults 13-23 September 2013
% Agree
% Neither/Nor
% Disagree
Source: Ipsos MORI/Inside Housing
56% Own/Occ’
58% Renters
Consensus on Challenge of Rising Prices

15. Q To what extent do you agree or disagree… ‘Rising house prices are a good thing for me personally’?
Base: 1,970 British adults 13-23 September 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI/Inside Housing
% Agree
% Neither/Nor
% Disagree
24%
18%
28%
19%
10%
41% Own/Occ’
9% Renters
…But More Divisive in Personal Terms

16. And JLL Survey Found Disquiet Abut Lending
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree…. “it has been made too difficult for people to get mortgages these days”
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
28%
38%
17%
9%
3
5
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know
Agree 66%
Disagree 11%
Mortgage holders
Agree 70%
Disagree 13%
Overall

17. 9%
22%
48%
60%
Up to £50
Up to £100
Up to £200
Up to £300
Some Low Tipping Points – Interest Rates
Base: 651 mortgage-holders,16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Q. What is the smallest amount your monthly mortgage repayments would have to increase for them to become unaffordable? (Mortgage holders)
Increase per month
% Who Would Find This Increase Unaffordable

18. The Supply Conundrum

19. The Problem/Solution Conundrum
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014
Top 4 of 7
Building more homes which are affordable
35%
Reducing the no. of empty homes
32%
30%
61%
Agree We Are Not Building Enough Homes Nationally
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree…
“We are not building enough homes to keep up with what is needed”
Q. Which, 1 or 2, if any, do you think should be the highest priority for the Government to deal with?
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Making it easier for FTBs…
28%
Improving run down estates
27%

20. Solution More Contentious Than Problem
71%
84%
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree…
Con
Lab
There Is A Housing Crisis In Britain?
More New Homes Need To Be Built In The Local Area?
44%
60%
80%
Own/occ’
Renters
47%
62%
% Agree
79%
Base: 1,015 British adults 12-14 January 2013
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard

21. The Central/Local Conundrum
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014
61%
agree “we are not building enough homes nationally”
24%
of these do not agree “we are not building enough homes locally”
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Includes ‘Neither/nor’ and ‘Don’t know’

22. The Quantity/Quality Conundrum
[Respondents were given the estimated number of new homes London needs (32,000 new homes a year*)]
Base: 500 online interviews with adult (16+) residents in Greater London, 24-27 May 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI for Berkeley Group
Build fewer homes with higher design standard
38%
Build more homes with lower design standards
28%
Q. “Thinking now about getting the balance right between the quality and the amount of new housing, which, if either, of the two options do you think would be best for London?”

23. New Builds have an Image Problem?
Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax
More expensive
(47% think 6%+)
Smaller
Source: Shelter

24. The Government/Market Conundrum
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
Base: All non-owning/mortgaged 18-29 year olds who think getting on the property ladder is difficult (1,748), GB, 20-27 March 2013
Source: ComRes/BBC
60%
Disagree
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Q. Who or what do you think is most responsible for young people finding it difficult to get onto the property ladder?
35%
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree…
“There isn’t much that British governments can do to encourage the building of new homes”
Size Of Deposits
33%
Property Prices
11%
The Government
11%
The Banks

25. The Lead/Follow Conundrum
Base: 2,011 GB adults 16-75 (online), 30 May-4 June 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI for CIH
Strongly agree
27%
16%
13%
Tend to agree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
28%
40%
12%
30%
Neither agree nor disagree
30%
58%
Q. To what extent would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area?

26. Q. To what extent would do you support or oppose the building of new homes…
Opinion Very Conditional and Local
22%
35%
..In The District
…In The Local Area
…If Meant Young People/Families Could Stay
10%
…If Meant Building On ‘Greenfield’ I.E. Undeveloped Land
70%
Base: 902 residents, Dec 2011-Feb 2012
Source: Ipsos MORI for Canterbury City Council
% Opposition

27. The Challenge For Managers & Leaders – TRY SOMETHING NEW

28. Thank You
@benatipsosmori
4th November, 2014 Ben Page Chief Executive Ipsos MORI

29. November 2014 jll.co.uk/residential
UK FORECASTS
Adam Challis
UK Residential Research
View the report that supports this presentation >

30. A PRESENTATION IN TWO PARTS
The Supply Conundrum
Forecasts & Rationale

31. % change pa
Source: JLL

32. % change pa
Source: JLL. Greater London definition includes all 33 London local authorities

33. % change pa
Source: JLL. Prime London definition includes, Mayfair/ St James, Belgravia, Knightsbridge, Chelsea, Kensington (part), Holland Park

36. November 2014 jll.co.uk/residential
UK FORECASTS
View the report that supports this presentation >

37. Nigel

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49. 7

51. November 2014 jll.co.uk/residential
UK FORECASTS
View the report that supports this presentation >

52. November 2014 jll.co.uk/residential
UK FORECASTS
View the report that supports this presentation >