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THE GUARDIAN’S DILEMMA
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The role of the United States in Greek-Turkish relations
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A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of Ph.D.
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Department of Politics and International Relations
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By Spyridon Katsoulas
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June 2012
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2. Abstract
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Alliance is a traditional instrument of statecraft, used to consolidate relations between two or more
states with a perceived correlation of interests. Although it is usually taken for granted that states
united under a common cause have no reason to fear—let alone fight—one another, problems do
arise between allies, because security dilemmas do not vanish with the mere formation of an
alliance. In the event of a crisis, the stronger state in the alliance intervenes to prevent war between
its own allies—an effort defined as ‘dual restraint.’ The ‘guardian’s dilemma’ lies in the fact that
whatever form the dual restraint effort takes, one state is generally dissatisfied with the guardian’s
behaviour, and feels abandoned by its stronger ally, whereas the other state feels affirmed by the
guardian’s behaviour, and is emboldened to further pursue its own interests. This results in a vicious
circle with detrimental results for the alliance as a whole.
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The Greek-Turkish-American strategic triangle constitutes a critical case in the examination of the
guardian’s dilemma. In the aftermath of World War II, the United States established close relations
with Greece and Turkey because it wished to ensure its control of the Eastern Mediterranean—an
area of crucial geopolitical importance. However, from 1950 to 2000, Greeks and Turks came to
blows on as many as nine occasions, thereby endangering America’s strategic interests. Thus, the
guardian’s dilemma is fundamentally a geopolitical problem. The concept of the ‘rimland bridge’ is
introduced to highlight the special strategic significance of the geographical hinge between Europe
and Asia, where Greece and Turkey are located. The thesis examines from a neoclassical-realist
standpoint how the United States responded to each Greek-Turkish crisis, for what reasons, and
with what results.