The document discusses several theories of foreign policy decision making, including Waltz's three-level theory examining the international system, state, and individual leaders. It also discusses individual theories rooted in psychology and how factors like domestic politics, public opinion, and available time can influence decisions. Examples are provided of studies finding personality and beliefs of leaders like Blair, Eisenhower, Dulles, and Mao/Deng shaped foreign policies. Margaret Hermann's research on personal characteristics of world leaders is also summarized.

1. Bright Mhango, SC

2. Theory:

3. Waltz
 Systemic level looks at the role of the international
system as a whole
 National level which examines the role of the state
 Individual level focuses on the idiosyncratic nature
of individual leaders in determining a nation’s foreign
policy.

4. Individual Theories
 Rooted in Psychology - Gerner in Neack et all (1995)
‘‘individuals tend to be much more closed-minded due
to their beliefs and the way they process information
thus, they tend to resist adapting to changes in the
environment.”

5. Warning
 domestic politics,
 external factors,
 public opinion,
 the complexity and gravity of decision to be made,
 the time available to make the decision
(Neack, 1995: Passim)

6. Examples…

7. Blair
 Stephen Dyson in his 2006 study found, for example
that how the erstwhile British Prime Minister Tony
Blair’s ‘personality and leadership style did indeed
shape both the process and outcome of British foreign
policy toward Iraq.’

10. Dwight and Dulles
 Douglas Foyle in his 1997 study examined personal
beliefs President Dwight Eisenhower and his Secretary
of State John Dulles regarding how public opinion
might have affected the way they framed they
conducted their foreign policy in reaction to the
September 1954 Chinese offshore islands crisis.

12. American elites
 Holsti and Rosenau investigated the changes in
foreign policy beliefs and perceptions of U.S. opinion
leaders. They found that the elite foreign policy
consensus (that saw communism as the single most
important threat to U.S. interests) that existed during
the cold war era was shattered during the Vietnam
War. (Rosati, 1995)

13. Hermanian studies
 Margaret Hermann. researched on the personal
characteristics of world leaders to determine the
circumstances under which these will represent a
significant influence on foreign policy decision making.
 In a series of articles (e.g., 1978,1980,1984) Hermann
examined leaders' operational codes or views of the world,
political styles, interest and training in foreign affairs,
conceptual complexity (sensitivity to the environment),
and political socialization, as well as their constituencies
and the functions they perform in relation to those
constituencies.
 All of these, Hermann concluded, need to be taken into
account in order to assess leaders' impact on foreign policy.

14. Shinzo Abe

15. Abe
 Family
 Childhood
 Sayings
 Policy

16. Mao/Deng
 War
 Communist
 Distrust of West
 Suspicious of capitalism

17.  As Jervis concluded, "It is often impossible to explain
crucial decisions and policies without reference to the
decision makers' beliefs about the world and their
images of others" (1976,28).