This document discusses the future of automated mobility. It notes that road transport currently kills over 1 million people globally each year. The goal is zero fatalities and injuries. Several global megatrends like urbanization, digitalization and an aging population will impact mobility. Nearly all crashes are due to human error, so automated vehicles have potential to significantly improve safety by eliminating human mistakes. Autonomous vehicles will prioritize safety and follow traffic laws. Uncertainty can be addressed through low speeds and separation of vehicles and pedestrians. Mobility systems will automate existing transport and have vehicles that are parked less. Shared, multimodal mobility as a service will be key in urban and rural areas.

1. The Future Society -
Automated Mobility
Anders Lie
Gordon Moore in 1965 said;
"Change will never be this slow again"

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The road transport system is an open and
complex system that is killing many people
• 1.25 Million Globally
• EU – 25 500
• USA – 40 000
Source: Index Mundi
Zero fatalities and severe injuries is the target

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Global megatrends
Digitalisation
Shared economy
Urbanization
Ageing population
Electrification in transport
Liveable cities

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There is a million reasons why we crash,
and more than 90% are related to human errors
A safe system support the driver and
absorbs errors and mistakes

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Vehicle overall safety has improved
very much
Automated functions have potential
to eliminated some safety problems
(ESC, AEB, LDW etc)
Good support for speed, seat belt,
driver alertness etc
Cars start to have situational
awareness
Many work towards automated cars
Modern vehicle safety
Few in-car fatalities in the future

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What characterize Autonomous vehicles
•Safety is a given and the limiting factor
•Focus on perceived safety and crash avoidance, but
with injury avoidance as a paramount prerequisite
•Careful
•Polite
•Law abiding
•(Almost social)
Road-users shall avoid any behaviour likely to endanger
or obstruct traffic, to endanger persons, or to cause
damage to public or private property.
(Vienna convention)

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Uncertainty and safety risks can be
compensated by low speeds or separation
The challenge is efficiency, not safety

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Mobility
Automating what we have
Cars are parked 96% of the time

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A mega-city mobility system
Mexico City Mobility plan

10. Mobility and logistics
Google just won a patent
on a self-driving truck that
delivers packages
They travel at
the slow speed
of four miles per
hour – a brisk
walking pace,
and will travel on
pavements

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Urban and rural mobility
There are differences
Source: Wikipedia

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Global megatrends
Digitalisation
Shared economy
Urbanization
Ageing population
Electrification in transport
Liveable cities
Mobility as a service
Car sharing / public transport
Multimodality - public transport is backbone
Automated transport or automated functions
Cars, pods and logistics
Liveable cities
Source: Drive Sweden
Source: White Architects

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Thank you!
Anders Lie
Swedish Transport Administration
anders.lie@trafikverket.se