The Q fever outbreak a number of years was quite devastating. Human health was affected and this lead to quite some stringent measures to guarantee the prevention of transmission from goats to humans. Maaike Gonggrijp, for her MSc work, made an interesting quantitative value chain analysis. For the Livestock Production and Health group of the South African Veterinary Assocation, I used that work to present in the small ruminant session.

1. The economics of an infectious
disease outbreak: Using the
European Q Fever epidemic as an
example
Henk Hogeveen, Mirjam Nielen and Maaike A. Gonggrijp
Business Economics group, Wageningen University
Departement Farm Animal Health, Utrecht University

4. Disease outbreaks
• Can have large consequences
– Eradication
– Vaccination
– Production consequences
– ……
• Zoonosis
– Even more consequences
– Public scrutiny

5. An example
• Q fever outbreak the Netherlands

6. • Relative new industry, still growing:
– 98,000 dairy goats in 2000
– 231,000 dairy goats in 2009
(Source: the Dutch Dairy Board)
• 80% of the produced goat milk is exported, only small
part consumed in the Netherlands
• Dairy goat products: soft and hard cheeses, yoghurt,
consumption milk and milk powder
Dutch dairy goat industry

8. • 320 goat farmers > 100 goats on farm
• Typical seize > 500 goats up to 2500 goats
• Milk collectors: cooperations and small businesses
• Dairy processors: receive milk either direct or indirect
from farmers
• Dairy distributors: dairy goat products are minor part of
their business
• Retail: collaborate with each other when purchasing
products
Dutch dairy goat industry

9. Goat husbandry
• Intensive system
• Confined, group housing on straw
• Hay and concentrate feeding
• Production level 850/goat/year
• Partly continued lactations (persistency)
• Twice per day milking
• External labour is common

12. Q fever outbreak
• In 2005 Coxiella burnetii diagnosed in
the Netherlands as cause of abortion
problems on a dairy goat farm
• In 2007 the first Q fever outbreak in
humans was diagnosed
• Since then thousands of people got
infected, which reached a climax in
2009
Year and week of

13. Source:
www.eurosurveillance.or
g

14. DALY’s
• DALY = Life years lost + life years lived
with disability
• Fatal cases * (expected life – age)
+
• Cases * duration * disability weight
– EQ 5D system: 243 different health states
based on: mobility, self care,
anxiety/depression, pain/discomfort, usual
activities

15. Total nr of DALY’s
• Years 2007 to 2010: 2,507 (1,286 – 5,152)
• Mostly (57%) caused by mortality
• Compare with other lung diseases:
– COPD: 146,200
– Pneumonia and bronchiolitis: 72,000
– Influenza: 8,600
• Enough for societal unrest

16. Farms with abortions due to Q fever

17. Roest et al 2011

18. Why dairy goats as source?
• Overlapping area
• Succession in time
• No other explanation
• Confirmed by genotyping
• Other possible sources excluded by
genotyping

19. Control measures
Majority of control measures in December 2009:
• Vaccination programme
• Culling of (pregnant) goats from infected farms
• Animal movement restrictions
• Breeding ban
• Bulk milk monitoring -> no good confirmation
• Extra hygiene programmes
Around 62,500 dairy goats were culled
 significant drop in milk production

20. Economic impact
• How large was the negative economic
impact for affected farmers?
• Were other actors of the industry also
negatively affected by the control
measures?
• Were the relations of the actors and
their behaviour in the industry still the
same?

21. Supply chain
Input
(feed,
vets)
Farmer Processor Retail Consumer
Input of money (bank), regulation
(government)
Transport

22. Value Chain
Input
(feed,
vets)
Farmer Processor Retail Consumer
Input money (bank), regulation
(government)
Transport

23. Value chain analysis
• Mapping the value chain
• Governance in the value chain
• Upgrading in the value chain
• Distribution of value in the value chain

24. Value chain analysis
• Information on the structure, the trade flows and all the
relations between the involved actors of a livestock
sector
• Often qualitative and descriptive
• In this value chain analysis focus on quantification

25. Data collection
• Identification of actors in value chain,
preliminary map of value chain
• Semi-structured individual interviews (n=34)
• Questions asked about total revenues, gross
margins, governance and upgrading
possibilities in the value chain and the Q
fever outbreak
• Complementary secondary data
• Construction of final map of value chain

26. Preliminary map of the value chain

27. Final map of the value chain

28. Data analysis
• Value chain analysis
– Chain of 2009 compared to chain of 2010
– Relations and behaviour
– Governance, upgrading possibilities

29. Data analysis
• Gross margin analysis
• Output - variable costs
• No fixed costs taken into account  no net
profit
• Amounts of milk, products or animals
• Gross margins per kg milk or per animal
• Compare same group not between the groups
• 2009 compared to 2010

30. Gross margin analysis with different
scenarios for 2010:
• Growth in milk production of 10,3%
• Growth in number of goats of 6,6%
• Milk price of 2010:
– -30% (0.31€/kg)
– -20% (0.36€/kg)
– 2010 (0.41€/kg)
– +5% (0.47€/kg)
Data analysis

31. Results of interviews
• Governance in chain: processors and retail
most often mentioned
• Goat farmers most opportunity for upgrading
• All but one of the relations in the chain
remained the same

32. The distribution of goat milk and milk equivalents 2009

33. Gross margin results
• Decrease of gross margins in 2010 of the
total industry of -12% and -23% for farmers
compared to 2009
• Enormous difference in decrease between
affected farmers (-53%) and non-affected
farmers (-12%)
• Prim. dairy processors, meat processing and
retail not negatively affected

34. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Goat farmers Milk collectors Prim. dairy
processors
Second. dairy
processors
(Feed) suppliers Meat
processing
Retail Total
2009
2010
Euro(€)x10⁶
Gross margins of the Dutch dairy goat industry
in 2009 - 2010

35. Differences in gross margins between 2009-2010
in the Dutch dairy goat sector (%)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Goat farmers Milk collectors Prim. dairy
processors
Second. dairy
processors
(Feed) suppliers Meat processing Retail Total
Percentage(%)

36. Different scenarios
Comparison of 2009 with different 2010
scenarios:
• Q fever outbreak
• No Q fever outbreak:
– Growth in milk production of 10,3%
– Growth in number of goats of 6,6%
– Milk price of 2010:
-30% (0.31€/kg),
-20% (0.36€/kg),
+5% (0.47€/kg)

37. Results different scenarios
Drop in milk price to 0.31€/kg -> -57% gross margin
Drop in milk price to 0.36€/kg  -29% gross margin

38. Different scenarios for the whole sector (effect
on gross margin)
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Goat farmers Milk collectors Prim. dairy
processors
Second. dairy
processors
(Feed) suppliers Meat processing Retail Total
Q fever outbreak
0.31 €/kg
0.36 €/kg
0.41 €/kg
0.47 €/kg
Percentage(%)
Scenario of 2010:

39. Discussion
• Not all of the actors participated. Especially
actors close to the consumer were hard to
motivate.
• Information provided in interviews correct? 
simulation model to deal with incorrect data.
• Uncertain if changes in 2010 solely due to the
effect of the outbreak and control measures 
change of export to France in 2010.
• Compensation used to pay off credit loans or
to buy new dairy goats.

40. Discussion – Value chain analysis
• All the (complex) relations in the
dairy goat industry were made
visible with the mapping of the
chain
• Individually held interviews:
– sensitive information was shared
– no room for group discussions

41. Conclusion
• Quantification of the value chain succeeded
• Farmers most visibly affected but other actors
as well or even more
• Compensation for farmers alone not
adequately address the economic impact
• The value chain analysis can be
complemented with:
– Transmission data
– Data on government costs and human benefits

42. Acknowledgements
Goat farmers
Milk collectors
Dairy processors
Feed companies
Milking system suppliers
Milk powder suppliers
Veterinarians
A.I. station
Semen inseminators
Claw carers
Accountants
Animal health service
Dairy traders
Goat traders
Meat processors
Slaughterhouses
Consumers
Dutch Dairy Board
Dutch Federation of Agriculture
and Horticulture
Many thanks to all of the participating actors of the
following groups:

43. Thank you for your attention.