This document summarizes the economic consequences of reproductive performance in dairy cattle. It finds that the optimal voluntary waiting period before starting inseminations varies depending on cow factors and economic considerations, but is generally less than 10 weeks for 90% of cows. The optimal time to stop inseminating cows is between 10-16 months postpartum based on models of declining conception probabilities over time. Accounting for factors like parity, months in milk, milk production level, and previous insemination attempts provides a more accurate assessment of when insemination value turns negative.

1. Economic consequences of reproductive
performanc ein dairy cattle
Henk Hogeveen, Chaidate Inchaisri and Niels Rutten

2. Changes over the years
2
7500
7750
8000
8250
8500
365
375
385
395
405
415
425
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Melkproductie(kg/305dgn)
Tussenkalftijd(dgn)
Jaar
Calving interval (days) Milk production (kg/yr)

3. Problem ...... yeah but
 I do not want to dry off my cows with 25 kg milk
 I want less problems around transition
 I have high productive, persistent cattle, so the damage
is not too big
 Well, a bit less milk .....
 Is this right?

4. What can be influenced
 Insemination decisions
 Probability of conception ?
 Probability of early-embryonic death ?
 Oestrus detection
 Detection/diagnosis reproductive disorders

5. Two decisions
 When do I start inseminating
 When do I stop inseminating

6. This presentation
 Economic consequences long calving interval
 Starting with inseminations
 Stopping with inseminations
 Heat detection (step counters)

7. Calving interval

8. Difficult calculations
Effect longer calving interval
● Less calves
● Lower production (kg/cow/day)
● More inseminations (?)
But also:
● Less costs around calving
● Less transition problems
● And how about persistence?
● Our solution: model calculations
8

9. Beware: Models ……. do not capture the
complexity of the real situation

10. Beware: Models……. are sometimes nicer
than reality (too good to be true)

11. Stochastic dynamic modelling
• Breed
• Parity
• Month of calving
• Milk production
• Farm level
• Relative performance
• Persistence
Cow
START OF CYCLE

12. 12
Calf
Ovulation
Oestrus
detected
Insemination
Conception
yes
yes
yes
yes
no
no
no
no
cow
Probabilities
based on cow
factors

13. Quite complex

14. What are the values?
 Costs lower milk production € 0.12 per kg (quota)
 Returns calf: € 100
 Costs calving (and transition): € 152
 Costs inseminations: € 20
 Just an estimation, it differs from farm to farm (of
course)

15. Three different farms
Good Average Bad
Probability of ovulation (after 1st ) 1.00 0.95 0.90
Oestrus detection 0.70 0.50 0.30
Probability of conception 0.70 0.50 0.30
Incidence reproductive disorders (cyclicity) 0.03 0.07 0.11
Incidence repro disorders (conception) 0.20 0.27 0.33
Incidence embryonic death 0.05 0.07 0.09
Voluntary waiting period 9 12 15

16. Technical results
Good Average Bad
First insemination (wks) 10.5
(9-13)
14.5
(12-20)
21.7
(15-35)
Calving interval (days) 362
(342-408)
407
(365-490)
507
(394-670)
Ins. per cow 1.16
(1-2)
1.61
(1-4)
2.76
(1-6)
Milk production (kg/cow/y) 8068
(6329-9831)
7775
(6188-9438)
7031
(5441-8790)
Calves per cow pe ryear 1.02
(0.90-1.08)
0.91
(0.75-1.01)
0.74
(0.55-0.93)
Not pregnant 0.00 0.00 0.21

17. Economic results related to good farm
Average Bad
Milk production 35 120
Calf sales 11 27
Not pregnant cows (culling) 0 128
Inseminations 5 20
Costs around calving -16 -42
Net total 34 231
Per day longer calving interval 0.57 0.70

18. Tool: www.wageningenur.nl/bec -> research -> decision support tools

20. Yeah but, selection space

22. This presentation
 Economic consequences long calving interval
 Starting with inseminations
 Stopping with inseminations
 Heat detection (step counters)

23. Decision one: starting with inseminations

24. Decision support difficult
Cow factors
● First ovulation
● Probability of oestrus detection
● Probability of conception
● Milk production
● Reproductive disorders
Economic factors
● Milk price
● Costs of insemination
● Costs of culling
● Costs of calving management
24
A complex system
of interactions and
dynamics

25. What is the optimal voluntary waiting
period
 Dutch circumstances (not much seasonality)
 We used to say: 60 days (as fast as possible)
 Research:
● An optimal calving interval of 12 to 13 months is
probably not applicable in all herds (Allore and Erb,
2000; van Amburge et al., 1997)
● Probably, the voluntary waiting period should be
longer for herds with a high milk production and
persistence (Abel et al., 2001; Sorensen and
Østergaard, 2003)

26. Average performance
Voluntary waiting periods
6 wk 7 wk 9 wk 11 wk 13 wk 15 wk
First insemination
10.9 11.5 13.1 14.8 16.8 18.5
Calving interval
391 393 401 410 421 433
MP/cow/year (kg)
8200 8188 8157 8112 8056 7997
Inseminations per
pregnancy 1.89 1.86 1.78 1.74 1.70 1.69
Calves per cow per
year 0.93 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.84
Not pregnanc (%) 0.018 0.019 0.021 0.025 0.030 0.037
26

27. Economic consequences
(€/cow/year)
Voluntary waiting periods
7 wks 9 wks 11 wks 13 wks 15 wks
Milk
production
2.2 8.9 18.3 32.4 46.4
Calves 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7
Culling 0.4 1.6 3.4 6.3 10.1
Inseminations -0.5 -1.6 -2.0 -2.8 -3.1
Calf
management
-0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.8 -2.9
Net total 2.1 8.6 19.0 34.2 52.2
(-16-22) (-11-32) (-6-53) (4-78) (13-106)
27

28. Average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wachttijd (weken)
Nettoverlies(€/koe/jaar)

29. 6 weeks not always optimal
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Percentagekoeien
Optimale VWP (wk)

30. Longer VWP when:
Cow factors
● Parity 1
● Not HF
● High persistency
● Low production
● Late production peak
● Calved in winter
● Bad oestrus detection
● Delayed first ovulation
● Reproductive disorders
Economische factoren
● Lower costs decreased
milk production
● High costs
insemination
● High costs culling
30

31. Summarizing
 For 90% of the cows: optimal VWP <10 weeks
 Optimal VWP differs from cow to cow
 So no group management, but individual cow
management (precision dairy farming)
31

32. Tool:http://www.wageningenur.nl/bec/

33. This presentation
 Economic consequences long calving interval
 Starting with inseminations
 Stopping with inseminations
 Heat detection (step counters)

34. Question 2: When to stop

35. Difficult question (again)
 Stopping = cullnig
 So: optimization
 Difficult model; probability of conception is dependent on:
● Parity
● Lactation stage
● Milk production
● …….
● Number of previous inseminations (more -> lower
probability)
 Models so far:
● Conception as constant (Groenendaal et al., 2004;
Nielsen et al., 2010)
● Linear decreasing value per month (De Vries, 2006)
● Marginal probility for different months (Houben et al.,
1994; Jalvingh et al., 1993)

36. Existing model (De Vries et al, 2006)
 Three scenarios:
● I Constant probability of conception during lactation
● II Probability of conception dependent on months
pp and parity
● III Probability of conception dependent on months
pp, parity and previous inseminations

37. Input
 Epidemiological research for Dutch cows (Inchaisri et
al.,2011)
 Literature, reports
 Expertise

38. Probability of conception
Scen. Parity Months pp
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ≥ 12
I 1 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42
2 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41
3 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41
4 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
≥ 5 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
II 1 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.3 0.3 0.3
2 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.3 0.3 0.3
3 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.29
4 0.43 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.29 0.29
≥ 5 0.41 0.39 0.37 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.27
III 1 0.46 0.44 0.4 0.37 0.35 0.34 0.35 0.38 0.38 0.38
2 0.45 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.37 0.37 0.37
3 0.44 0.42 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.32 0.33 0.36 0.36 0.36
4 0.43 0.41 0.37 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.35 0.35
≥ 5 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.31 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34
38

39. Economic values
Value Source
Milk price, €/100 kg 34.46
Wageningen University
(2010)
Calf price, €/calf 84
Wageningen University
(2010)
Costs young stock raising, €/heifer 1540 Mohd-Nor et al. (2011)1
Returns culled cows €/kg life weight. 0.82
Wageningen University
(2010)
Insemination, €/insemination 15 KWIN (2009)
Feed costs lactating cows, €/kg dm 0.11
Wageningen University
(2010)
Feed costs dry cows, €/kg dm 0.07
Wageningen University
(2010)
Variable labour, €/hour 11 KWIN (2009)
Fixed labour, €/cow/day 1.37 KWIN (2009)
Veterinarian, €/cow 100 Expertise
Other costs, €/cow/day 1 Expertise
Costs culling, €/cow 100 Expertise
39

40. Calculations
 Retention pay-off (RPO)
● Discounted future returns when keeping a cow – discounted future
returns when culling the cow
● > 0: keep
 Insemination value
● Discounted future returns when inseminating now – discounted
future returns waing
● > 0: now inseminating
 Decision to stop with inseminating
● If RPO < 0 or
● Insemination value < 0

41. Results model
Scenario
I II III
Milk returns, €/cow/year 2951 2950 2947
Total returns, €/ cow/year 3141 3147 3141
Total costs, €/cow/year 2609 2627 2619
Profit, €/cow/year 532 520 522
Milk production, kg/cow/year 8564 8562 8553
Interval calving-conception 120 115 117
Pregancy % 24 24 24
Yearly culling, % 23 24 24
41

42. Insemination values parity 1
42
-50
0
50
100
150
200
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Inseminationvalue(€)
Months in milk
Scenario I, 100% LV Scenario II, 100% LV Scenario III, 100% LV

43. Insemination values parity 1
43
-50
0
50
100
150
200
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Inseminationvalue(€)
Months in milk
Scenario I, 90% LV Scenario I, 100% LV Scenario I, 110% LV
Scenario II, 90% LV Scenario II, 100% LV Scenario II, 110% LV
Scenario III, 90% LV Scenario III, 100% LV Scenario III, 110% LV

44. Insemination values parity 2
44
-50
0
50
100
150
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Inseminationvalue(€)
Months in milk
Scenario I, 100% LV Scenario II, 100% LV Scenario III, 100% LV

45. Insemination values parity 2
45

46. Insemination values parity 3
46
-50
0
50
100
150
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Inseminationvalue(€)
Months in milk
Scenario I, 100% LV Scenario II, 100% LV Scenario III, 100% LV

47. Insemination values parity 3
47

48. Conclusions
Stop inseminating:
10-16 months pp (!!) -> max. calving interval ±
600 days
Heifers longer (16 months) then older cows (10
months)
Effect milk production: ± 3 months
48

49. Conclusions
Different scenarios:
Effects at cow level
Not at farm level
Effect of milk production and parity is much higher
49

50. This presentation
 Economic consequences long calving interval
 Starting with inseminations
 Stopping with inseminations
 Heat detection (step counters)

51. Automated oestrus detection

52. Sensor system
Sensor Metingen (data)
Detectie
algoritme
Tocht alert

53. Sensor system
 Activity sensor on collar
 Performance
● Sens. ~62-90% Spec. ~>90%
Oestrus No oestrus
Alert Correct + False +
No Alert False - Correct -

54. Goal of the analysis
 Activity sensors
 Calving interval has economic consequences
 Is automation profitable?
 Herd of 130 dairy cows

55. Titelstijl van model
bewerken
• Klik om de tekststijl van het model
te bewerken
– Tweede niveau
• Derde niveau
– Vierde niveau
» Vijfde niveau
Simulation model
• Base on previous model
• Ovulation->detection->insemination
• Calving and culling
• Results (per farm per year):
• Milk production
• Feed intake
• Inseminations
• Calves
• Culled cows

56. Culling rules
● Not pregant after 35 weeks of after 6 inseminations
● Random, dependant on age
● Rules (20%), random (80%)

57. Titelstijl van model
bewerken
• Klik om de tekststijl van het model
te bewerken
– Tweede niveau
• Derde niveau
– Vierde niveau
» Vijfde niveau
Two simulations
Visual SN 50%, SP 100% Sensor SN 80%, SP 95%

58. Labour
● Labour costs 18 €/hr
Task Time
Oestrus detection 10 min/day
Confirmation oestrus 5 min/alert
Checking alers 2.5 min/day

59. Investments
● Discount rate (intrest): 5%
● Depreciation 10 years
● Activity meters: 108 €/cow
● System: 3600 €/herd

60. Titelstijl van model
bewerken
• Klik om de tekststijl van het model
te bewerken
– Tweede niveau
• Derde niveau
– Vierde niveau
» Vijfde niveau
Cashflow (*1.000 €/farm/year)
Milk 330 334
Feed -128 -129
Calves -7 -8
Inseminations -7 -7
Culling -7 -6
Labour -1 -0.7

61. Titelstijl van model
bewerken
• Klik om de tekststijl van het model
te bewerken
– Tweede niveau
• Derde niveau
– Vierde niveau
» Vijfde niveau
Investment analysis
Cash flow
(€/Year)
Internal rate of return
(%)
Payback time
(years)
Average 3,151 11% 7

62. Titelstijl van model
bewerken
• Klik om de tekststijl van het model
te bewerken
– Tweede niveau
• Derde niveau
– Vierde niveau
» Vijfde niveau
Effect of sensitivity (sn) and
specificity (sp)

63. Titelstijl van model
bewerken
• Klik om de tekststijl van het model
te bewerken
– Tweede niveau
• Derde niveau
– Vierde niveau
» Vijfde niveau
Conclusions
• Investment in activity meters is cost
effective
• IRR on average 11%
• Sensitivity important

64. Finally…..
 Calving interval is costly
 Costs prolonged calving interval are high -> room for
improvement
 Differences between farms
 Early start of inseminations
● With exceptions (cow-specific management)
 Long continuation with inseminations
● With exceptions
 Improved oestrus dtection is valuable

65. 65
Thank you
For your
attention