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The challenge of wicked problems in airlines engineering ahmad arafat
This document provides an overview of wicked problems in airline engineering and maintenance from Ahmad Arafat's perspective. It introduces Ahmad and his background in airline engineering. It then defines wicked problems and their key properties, such as having no clear solution or definition. The document examines three case studies of wicked problems Lion Air faced: carbon brake oxidation issues, APU ignition exciter issues, and CFM 56-7B fan blade inspections. It analyzes the complexity of these problems and potential solutions. Finally, it emphasizes the need for collaboration and a new way of thinking to address wicked engineering challenges in airlines.
The challenge of wicked problems in airlines engineering ahmad arafat
- 1. THE CHALLENGE OF WICKEDPROBLEMS IN AIRLINES ENGINEERING – A RETROSPECTIVE LOOK & FURTHER PROJECTION PREPARED BY : AHMAD ARAFAT
- 2. INTRO: WHO AMI? Ahmad Arafat Aminullah Born: 23rd July, 1984 Graduated from Aeronautical & Astronautical Engineering, ITB (October, 2008). Joined Lion Air since Jan. 2008 – now. From Specialist to Generalist. Field of Expertise: Aircraft System Engineering, Maintenance & Fleet Management, Airworthiness & Configuration Management, Aircraft Entry Into Service, Engineering Project (Modification, Repair, etc.) 2
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- 5. OUR ROADMAP… Intro &Overview: A context of airline industry Why, What, and How: “Wicked Problem”! Engineering Study Case(s) & Lesson Learned 5
- 6. • Is itsimple? • Is it manageable? • Is it integrated? 6
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- 9. AIRLINE MAINTENANCE &ENGINEERING MGMT. Fleet mgmt.MCC Mainten ance Program Supply Chain Avail. & AOG Reliability (TDR) Defects & Irregulari ties Tech. Record Airwor thiness Project & Case Maintena nce Schedule & U/S Reliability Analysis Engineeri ng Analysis Configurat ion Mgmt. Life- cycle Data base RCP Engineering Policy & Procedure MIS/ ERPMaintenance QC/QA 9
- 10. MAINTENANCE & ENGINEERINGROLE • Maintenance is the process (include inspection, servicing, overhaul, repair, preservation and replacement) of ensuring that a system continually performs its intend function at its design in level of reliability and safety. • Engineering is to establish and maintain standard to achieve effective and efficient maintenance by reducing unscheduled maintenance cost and irregularities events. • Maintenance & Engineering Domain are one of key-driver for Variable (Production) Costs. • It is also a significant and critical factor for any airline profitability! 10
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- 15. PART II. WICKEDPROBLEMS 15 Why? What? How?
- 16. WHY? 16 • Simple • Complicated •Complex • Wicked / Chaotic
- 17. WICKED PROBLEM –KEY PROPERTIES No definitive formulation of a wicked problem. The process of solving a wicked problem is inherently non-linear. Because problem definition and solution co-evolve, and because there are no criteria for determining when the problem is adequately defined, wicked problem have no internal stopping rules. There are numbers of stakeholders…. Each could make different qualitative judgements about the nature of the problem and the value of the solution. It is not possible to exhaustively enumerate the set of possible solutions. Every instance of wicked problem is essentially unique. Solution are never true or false but instead qualitatively judged as better or worse. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem. The problem should be settled on as high a level as possible. There can be no immediate, ultimate, or definitive test of a solution. 17 Source: G. Fitzpatrick, The Locales Framework: Understanding and Designing for Wicked Problems
- 18. WICKED PROBLEM –KEY FEATURES 1. Difficult to clearly define 2. Many interdependencies and multi-causal aspects 3. Proposed measures may have unforeseen effects 4. Problems may be unstable and continue evolving 5. No clear and correct solution 6. Problems are socially complex with many stakeholders 7. Responsibility stretches across many organisations 8. Solutions may require behavioural changes by citizens and stakeholder groups. 18 Source: The Australian Public Service Commission (APSC 2007), ‘Tackling Wicked Problems’.
- 19. SO, WHAT ISWICKED PROBLEMS? • Classic examples of wicked problems include economic, environmental, and political issues. • A problem whose solution requires a great number of people to change their mindsets and behavior is likely to be a wicked problem. • Wicked problem are now known in software development area, design thinking & engineering, and also: airlines/aviation industry! 19
- 20. EXAMPLE • Aircraft tiresneed to be replaced whenever worn out –simple. • How many tires need to be prepared and available for demand per one period (e.g. : monthly)? –complicated. • When and where to deliver these tires to cover and anticipate the tires demand at certain time to make sure the operation run uninterruptly? –complex. • What set of condition could cause the tire(s) need to be removed and replaced, which factor is the (pre)dominant one, and what are the impact of this requirement (tire change) to the maintenance operation performance on daily basis at once? Lastly, how to mitigate all of the risks induced and minimize the possible adverse effect? –wicked! 20
- 21. Complexity vs. Structured ComplexitySpectrum/Level Complexity of Problem & Complexity of Solution COMPLEXITY Diversity poses broadly similar kinds of difficulties. Diverse (stakeholders) in point of view, value, information, orientation, priority and resources. DIVERSITY Complexity and Diversity create higher levels of uncertainty or ambiguity! Tied up to a range of factors. Effectiveness for finding provisional solutions. UNCERTAINTY MAIN COMPONENTS WICKED!
- 22. CHALLENGES OF WICKEDPROBLEM • Define wicked problem boundaries while it is boundless • Deep-rooted disagreements about the nature and significance of particular problems and possible solutions • Problem definition tends to imply a preferred solution. Some caution is therefore required with any proposed methods or approaches for addressing wicked problems, as they are likely to be provisional and incomplete in various degrees. • Every “solution” for dealing with a wicked problem is necessarily open to further interrogation and adaptation 22
- 23. HOW TO UNDERTAKEAN APPROACH FOR WICKED PROBLEM? • Use collaborative-integrative strategy rather than Authoritative or Competitive strategy. • Involve stakeholders, document opinions, and communicate. • Define the goal’s identity or its direction. • Focus on action! • Adopt a “feed-forward” orientation. 23
- 24. PART III. STUDYCASES 24
- 25. STUDY CASES 01 02 03 CARBON BRAKEOXIDATION PROBLEM #complex #diverse APU issues #diverse CFM 56-7B FAN BLADE INSPECTION #uncertainty
- 26. EXHIBIT 1. LIONAIR CARBON BRAKE OXIDATION PROBLEM • Simple? • Complicated? • Complex? • Wicked / Chaotic? 26
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- 29. 2011-2012 2017-2018 TBD.TBD. 11 Brake OxidationProblems (2017) 6 Brake related problems (2018) 23 Total Cases23 Total Cases 17 Brake related problems (74%) 108 Total Cases108 Total Cases 21 Direct Oxidation Problems (19%) 83 Total Cases83 Total Cases 36 Brake related problems (43%) No. of Cases 2013-2014 2015-2016
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- 31. FDR Data Readout Analysis Lookfor indicative defect FDR Data Readout Analysis Look for indicative defect Carbon Brake Inspection To look for oxidation sign Carbon Brake Inspection To look for oxidation sign Lorem Ipsum Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Autobrake Setting Selection Recom. To minimize the high energy Autobrake Setting Selection Recom. To minimize the high energy Shop Procedure Changes Ensure assemblying quality Shop Procedure Changes Ensure assemblying quality Joint Investigation Understand deeper Joint Investigation Understand deeper Sample Testing Component functional testing and deep analysis Sample Testing Component functional testing and deep analysis Lorem Ipsum Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Lorem Ipsum Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Lorem Ipsum Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Lorem Ipsum Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Lorem Ipsum Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit “Solutions”?
- 32. EXHIBIT 2. LIONAIR APU ISSUES 32
- 33. APU IGNITION EXCITERISSUE 33
- 34. APU IGNITION EXCITERISSUE 34
- 35. CONCLUSION • Working TogetherTeam & Platform for Joint Collaboration • Engineering as Solution Developer, Frame-worker, and …. • Knowledge Sharing • Addressing wicked problems requires an integrative approach. • It also demand new way of thinking and new process • Learning-in-execution. 35
- 36. COLLABORATION & COORDINATION •The presence of collaborative relationships is likely to enhance the understanding and addressing of those wicked problems in which there are multiple parties with differential knowledge, interests or values. Where it is operating effectively, collaboration helps in the addressing of wicked problems in three ways. Firstly, the presence of functioning co-operative networks increases the likelihood that the nature of the problem and its underlying causes can be better understood. Secondly, collaboration increases the likelihood that provisional solutions to the problem can be found and agreed upon, not only because a wider network offers more insights, but also because greater co-operation improves the chances of diverse parties (who may have differing interests concerning the issue) coming to an understanding about what to do. Thirdly, it facilitates the implementation of solutions, not only because the parties are more likely to have agreed on the next steps, but also because it enables mutual adjustment among them as problems arise in putting the agreed solution into practice. 36
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