This document provides an overview of wicked problems in airline engineering and maintenance from Ahmad Arafat's perspective. It introduces Ahmad and his background in airline engineering. It then defines wicked problems and their key properties, such as having no clear solution or definition. The document examines three case studies of wicked problems Lion Air faced: carbon brake oxidation issues, APU ignition exciter issues, and CFM 56-7B fan blade inspections. It analyzes the complexity of these problems and potential solutions. Finally, it emphasizes the need for collaboration and a new way of thinking to address wicked engineering challenges in airlines.

1. THE CHALLENGE OF
WICKED PROBLEMS IN
AIRLINES ENGINEERING – A
RETROSPECTIVE LOOK &
FURTHER PROJECTION
PREPARED BY : AHMAD ARAFAT

2. INTRO: WHO AM I?
Ahmad Arafat Aminullah
Born: 23rd July, 1984
Graduated from Aeronautical & Astronautical
Engineering, ITB (October, 2008).
Joined Lion Air since Jan. 2008 – now.
From Specialist to Generalist.
Field of Expertise:
Aircraft System Engineering,
Maintenance & Fleet Management,
Airworthiness & Configuration Management,
Aircraft Entry Into Service,
Engineering Project (Modification, Repair, etc.)
2

3. 3
ASIAN AVIATION 2014-2016

4. 4

5. OUR ROADMAP…
Intro & Overview: A context of airline industry
Why, What, and How: “Wicked Problem”!
Engineering Study Case(s) & Lesson Learned
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6. • Is it simple?
• Is it
manageable?
• Is it integrated?
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7. 7

8. 8

9. AIRLINE MAINTENANCE & ENGINEERING MGMT.
Fleet
mgmt.MCC
Mainten
ance
Program
Supply
Chain
Avail. &
AOG
Reliability
(TDR)
Defects
&
Irregulari
ties
Tech.
Record
Airwor
thiness
Project
&
Case
Maintena
nce
Schedule
& U/S
Reliability
Analysis
Engineeri
ng
Analysis
Configurat
ion Mgmt.
Life-
cycle
Data
base
RCP
Engineering
Policy &
Procedure
MIS/
ERPMaintenance
QC/QA
9

10. MAINTENANCE & ENGINEERING ROLE
• Maintenance is the process (include inspection, servicing, overhaul, repair, preservation
and replacement) of ensuring that a system continually performs its intend function at its
design in level of reliability and safety.
• Engineering is to establish and maintain standard to achieve effective and efficient
maintenance by reducing unscheduled maintenance cost and irregularities events.
• Maintenance & Engineering Domain are one of key-driver for Variable (Production)
Costs.
• It is also a significant and critical factor for any airline profitability!
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11. 11

12. 12

13. 13

14. 14

15. PART II. WICKED PROBLEMS
15
Why?
What?
How?

16. WHY?
16
• Simple
• Complicated
• Complex
• Wicked / Chaotic

17. WICKED PROBLEM – KEY PROPERTIES
No definitive formulation of a wicked problem. The process of solving a wicked problem is
inherently non-linear.
Because problem definition and solution co-evolve,
and because there are no criteria for determining
when the problem is adequately defined, wicked
problem have no internal stopping rules.
There are numbers of stakeholders…. Each
could make different qualitative judgements about
the nature of the problem and the value of the
solution.
It is not possible to exhaustively enumerate the set
of possible solutions.
Every instance of wicked problem is essentially
unique.
Solution are never true or false but instead
qualitatively judged as better or worse.
Every wicked problem can be considered to be a
symptom of another problem.
The problem should be settled on as high a
level as possible.
There can be no immediate, ultimate, or definitive
test of a solution. 17
Source: G. Fitzpatrick, The Locales Framework: Understanding and Designing for Wicked Problems

18. WICKED PROBLEM – KEY FEATURES
1. Difficult to clearly define
2. Many interdependencies and multi-causal aspects
3. Proposed measures may have unforeseen effects
4. Problems may be unstable and continue evolving
5. No clear and correct solution
6. Problems are socially complex with many stakeholders
7. Responsibility stretches across many organisations
8. Solutions may require behavioural changes by citizens and stakeholder groups.
18
Source: The Australian Public Service Commission (APSC 2007), ‘Tackling Wicked Problems’.

19. SO, WHAT IS WICKED PROBLEMS?
• Classic examples of wicked problems include
economic, environmental, and political issues.
• A problem whose solution requires a great
number of people to change their mindsets
and behavior is likely to be a wicked
problem.
• Wicked problem are now known in software
development area, design thinking &
engineering, and also: airlines/aviation
industry! 19

20. EXAMPLE
• Aircraft tires need to be replaced whenever worn out –simple.
• How many tires need to be prepared and available for demand per one period (e.g. :
monthly)? –complicated.
• When and where to deliver these tires to cover and anticipate the tires demand at
certain time to make sure the operation run uninterruptly? –complex.
• What set of condition could cause the tire(s) need to be removed and replaced, which
factor is the (pre)dominant one, and what are the impact of this requirement (tire
change) to the maintenance operation performance on daily basis at once? Lastly, how
to mitigate all of the risks induced and minimize the possible adverse effect? –wicked!
20

21. Complexity vs. Structured
Complexity Spectrum/Level
Complexity of Problem &
Complexity of Solution
COMPLEXITY
Diversity poses broadly similar
kinds of difficulties.
Diverse (stakeholders) in point of
view, value, information,
orientation, priority and resources.
DIVERSITY
Complexity and Diversity create
higher levels of uncertainty or
ambiguity!
Tied up to a range of factors.
Effectiveness for finding
provisional solutions.
UNCERTAINTY
MAIN
COMPONENTS
WICKED!

22. CHALLENGES OF WICKED PROBLEM
• Define wicked problem boundaries while it is boundless
• Deep-rooted disagreements about the nature and significance of particular problems
and possible solutions
• Problem definition tends to imply a preferred solution. Some caution is therefore
required with any proposed methods or approaches for addressing wicked
problems, as they are likely to be provisional and incomplete in various degrees.
• Every “solution” for dealing with a wicked problem is necessarily open to further
interrogation and adaptation
22

23. HOW TO UNDERTAKE AN APPROACH FOR WICKED
PROBLEM?
• Use collaborative-integrative strategy rather than Authoritative or
Competitive strategy.
• Involve stakeholders, document opinions, and communicate.
• Define the goal’s identity or its direction.
• Focus on action!
• Adopt a “feed-forward” orientation.
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24. PART III. STUDY CASES
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25. STUDY CASES
01
02
03
CARBON BRAKE OXIDATION
PROBLEM
#complex
#diverse
APU issues
#diverse
CFM 56-7B FAN BLADE
INSPECTION
#uncertainty

26. EXHIBIT 1. LION AIR CARBON BRAKE OXIDATION
PROBLEM
• Simple?
• Complicated?
• Complex?
• Wicked / Chaotic?
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27. 27

28. 28

29. 2011-2012
2017-2018
TBD.TBD.
11 Brake Oxidation Problems (2017)
6 Brake related problems (2018)
23 Total Cases23 Total Cases
17 Brake related problems (74%)
108 Total Cases108 Total Cases
21 Direct Oxidation Problems (19%)
83 Total Cases83 Total Cases
36 Brake related problems (43%)
No. of Cases
2013-2014
2015-2016

30. RELIABILITY ISSUE???
30

31. FDR Data
Readout Analysis
Look for indicative defect
FDR Data
Readout Analysis
Look for indicative defect
Carbon Brake
Inspection
To look for oxidation sign
Carbon Brake
Inspection
To look for oxidation sign
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Autobrake Setting
Selection Recom.
To minimize the high energy
Autobrake Setting
Selection Recom.
To minimize the high energy
Shop Procedure
Changes
Ensure assemblying quality
Shop Procedure
Changes
Ensure assemblying quality
Joint Investigation
Understand deeper
Joint Investigation
Understand deeper
Sample Testing
Component functional testing
and deep analysis
Sample Testing
Component functional testing
and deep analysis
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“Solutions”?

32. EXHIBIT 2. LION AIR APU ISSUES
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33. APU IGNITION EXCITER ISSUE
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34. APU IGNITION EXCITER ISSUE
34

35. CONCLUSION
• Working Together Team & Platform for Joint Collaboration
• Engineering as Solution Developer, Frame-worker, and ….
• Knowledge Sharing
• Addressing wicked problems requires an integrative approach.
• It also demand new way of thinking and new process
• Learning-in-execution.
35

36. COLLABORATION & COORDINATION
• The presence of collaborative relationships is likely to enhance the understanding and
addressing of those wicked problems in which there are multiple parties with differential
knowledge, interests or values. Where it is operating effectively, collaboration helps in the
addressing of wicked problems in three ways. Firstly, the presence of functioning co-operative
networks increases the likelihood that the nature of the problem and its underlying causes can
be better understood. Secondly, collaboration increases the likelihood that provisional
solutions to the problem can be found and agreed upon, not only because a wider network
offers more insights, but also because greater co-operation improves the chances of diverse
parties (who may have differing interests concerning the issue) coming to an understanding
about what to do. Thirdly, it facilitates the implementation of solutions, not only because the
parties are more likely to have agreed on the next steps, but also because it enables mutual
adjustment among them as problems arise in putting the agreed solution into practice. 36

37. THANK YOU!
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