1. The Canary in the Coal Mine
Reflecting on the events of last week it sometimes appears that the world is coming apart
at the seams. With a missile launch by an aggressive isolated nation, and continued terrorist
attacks happening almost weekly, it seems that crises are becoming more and more frequent and
that world order that has been in place since the end of World War II is starting to fracture.
This past Friday I awoke to the news that both the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea (DPRK), and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have decided to provide the world
with yet another example of how unstable and uncertain the 21st century has become. With the
launch of another missile over Japan by the DPRK, to another terrorist attack in Europe, we
continue to be tested by both state and non-state actors.
The belligerence of the DPRK, which has continued unabated since Kim Il Sung founded
the North Korea state, has accelerated under Il Sung grandson Kim Song un. From the USS
Pueblo attack in 1968, to the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, to the assassination
on Kim Jong un’s half-brother Kim Jong Nam, the DPRK has shown blatant disregard for
international norms. It was thought, or at least hoped, that the latest passage of U.N. Security
Council sanctions (the eighth round) would demonstration to the DPRK that they are a clear and
present to the world, and that these new UN sanction would restrain Kim Song un’s ambitions.
Apparently, Kim didn’t get the message.
With support, (or lack of restraint) by China and Russia, and the collusion of Iran,
Pakistan, and Syria’s with the Hermit Kingdom on nuclear and missile technology Kim has been
able to rapidly expand and refine his offensive military capabilities. Now with Kim Song un’s
provocative action of this latest missile launch (with a range that could hit Guam), it is apparent
that North Korea is bent on attaining nuclear weapons and a delivery system that would make
North Korea an existential threat to many nations (including ours).
While in the Western Hemisphere, London was a target of another terrorist attack. This
attack on a commuter train, claimed by ISIS, appears to have been a homemade improvised
explosive device. This bomb injured 29 people, and marked the 13thh attack in England since
9/11 - with five happening in the last year alone!
2. Although ISIS had its origins in the early 2000s, as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the
organization separate itself from al-Qaeda in 2013, and over the course of 2013 and 2014,
quickly took over territory in Syria and Iraq and proclaimed a Caliphate. Led by Abu Bakr al-
Baghdadi, and imbued with the fundamental Islamic ideology of Wahhabism, these “soldiers of
Allah” believe that all non-believers should be put to death, while immediate entrance into
Paradise will be promised to these soldiers who fell in battle.
Even though ISIS is being systematically destroyed and rapidly losing territory, thanks to
the new U.S. strategy of annihilation, we have seen in the last several years how these Islamic
terrorists have modified their attacks. Switching from complex, catastrophic attacks like 9/11, to
individual attacks with small caliber weapons (i.e. AK-47’s), to trucks, lorries, and now
homemade bombs, ISIS continues to improvise in order to kill civilians around the globe.
So, here we are, stuck between a rock and hard spot. With the belligerence of a madman
who sees himself as a deity in charge of a nation-state, to a madman that sees himself as the
rightful Caliph interpreting Allah’s will, we continue to be influence by the strategic desire of
Kim Jun-un and the tactical attacks by Islamic terrorists.
However, as I have written previously, “terrorism will only succeed if irrational anxiety
creates an atmosphere that encourages our government to negotiate with terrorists to redress their
perceived grievances. Negotiating with a terrorist group is a way to ensure more violence, not
prevent it.” The same goes for rogue nations as well. Appeasement only makes the aggressor
stronger. We have only to study the past in order not to repeat it. If proactive measures were
taken against Germany to stop its military belligerence in 1936 (re-occupation of the Rhineland),
or 1938 (Munich appeasement), would Hitler have invaded Poland in 1939 and igniting World
War Two?
The creation of the United Nations was born out of the ashes of World War II. However,
the UN has had a rocky road ever since its founding (ironically, its first real test came on the
Korean peninsula in 1950). Today the UN has the chance to bring the world’s attention in
condemning and restraining the DPRK and ISIS. To eradicate both these threats before they
metastasize into bigger problems should be the primary focus of the UN general assembly
meeting this week. Like the preverbal canary in the coal mine, we must recognize that these
seemingly independent acts on opposites sides of the world portend more, and greater, calamities
unless forcibly acted upon by the world community to ensure peace and security.
3. James L. Feldkamp is Lead Consultant - Intelligence and Counter-terrorism for Complete Threat
Preparedness. He is a retired Naval Officer, and former FBI special agent, with a career focus
on international terrorism. Feldkamp has authored/edited a university textbook through
Cognella Academic Publishing on the "Theory and Politics of Terrorism”, and has instructed as
an adjunct professor at multiple universities including George Mason University, George
Washington University and Henley-Putnam University, where he teaches multiple courses in
domestic and international terrorism.
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