Thailand And Technology Trends

Gartner Predicts 2010 Local Program

Thailand and
Technology Trends

Thaweesak Koanantakool
Vice President,
National Science and Technology Development Agency
29 January 2010
Thailand and Technology Trends
Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Agenda
• General Trends facing Thailand
• Thailand – quick and slow
• Gartner's Hype Cycle and
Thailand
• Social Media Concerns
• Challenges for Thailand's
Broadband development
• Other little BIG issues
– Security, Privacy, Digital Rights

Thaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010 2

General Trends facing Thailand
• Climate Change
• Concerns for food, water and energy/fuels
• Aging Societies
• Economic Regionalization –
AFTA → Asia Community (ASEAN+3,+6)
• Broadband access (wired/wireless)


Thailand – quick and slow adopter
• Quick adopter of many technologies
– Color TV introduced before UK
• Slow adopter of many regulatory practices
– ISDN (slow, late, short-lived, unproductive)
– Establishing Regulatory Body
– WIFI (slow regulatory announcement)
– 3G (sluggish and unclear plan)
– WiMAX (too many reservations)
– Digital Broadcast (slow, private sector driven)
– Freeing spectrum for Digital Communications (unheard of)
– Last-mile unbundling (hardly happens)
– Number portability, TLS, USO, etc...

Gartner
Hype Cycle 2009


From Smart phone to
an ebook reader, web browser and game

Apple iPad, launched Jan 28, 2010

Mobile Device plays all “matured”
applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle

Speech
Recognition


Schmap Geo Tweeter
Schmap.com
Location Another fine Geo Social tool comes
Aware from the developers of the amazing
Apps local search service Schmap.
Schmap publishes local guides,
providing a wealth of information to
visitors of many major urban centers
around the Globe... access
information, photos, reviews and
ratings on places of interest and
much more. The company also has
developed a number of location
sharing tools, widgets, and services
including the Schmap Geo-Tweet
utility.

พระทนงสถตยมโหฬาร

Location
Aware
Apps



Social
Networking


Which screen will you
be using?


It all depends on the bandwidth...


Broadband status: World


Does broadband availability
contribute to economy?

Economy Broadband


Take a closer look into mobile technology
• Transistor radios
• Cassette tape, Walkman [TM]

• Mobile phones

• Bluetooth earphones
• Television in smart phones
• Everything in smart phone


Applications, Bandwidth and Technology
Source: Verizon

Source: http://www.engineersireland.ie/sector_papers/Next_Generation_Broadband.pdf

Do we end up with three screens?
• จอเลก
• จอกลาง
• จอใหญ/จอยกษ

All capable of IP connection?


Thailand is a fast adopter of Social Media

Social media needs “always-on” “everywhere” services.
Speed is optional...
Picture source: slideshare.net

Thais hardly concern with the hidden and
potential problems
Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You
1. Facebook Saves Things That Have Been Deleted
– Whatever status updates or unglamorous pictures of you are still inside
the server somewhere. A word of advice, think carefully and be tactful
when uploading photos or making a status update.
2. Facebook Knows Your Viewing History
– Log of clicks are used by Facebook to determine your viewing history.
Hence, it knows whose photos you are going through.
3. Facebook Knows How Often You Interact With Or Click On The
Profile Of A Given Person
– Depending on the number of visits you made on your friend’s profile,
Facebook uses this data as a method to judge who your good friends are.
This is visible through Facebook search where your friends are not listed
in alphabetical order but by the people who you interact most with.
important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In
the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there
are always traces of data that could be used against you.

We hardly concern with the hidden and
potential problems
Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You

4. Facebook Carries Out Psychological Tests On New Features
– Instead of doing group sampling or beta testing on their new features,
Facebook does the above plus eye ball tracking to get an idea of where
you are looking at.
5. Facebook Employees Are Able To Retrieve Any Message You’ve
Sent Out
– Since all data are stored in the server, employees have the clearance to
pull out any data about you through a simple query on your profile.
– Whether the interview was a hoax or made-up, I think what’s more
important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In
the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there
are always traces of data that could be used against you.

Source: http://therumpus.net/2010/01/conversations-about-the-internet-5-
anonymous-facebook-employee/?full=yes

From GSM to LTE to Femtocell

WiMAX
Femtocell

http://wimaxcomnet.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html

Backbone network, Access network
• National Broadband plan is needed
• Optical fiber backbones – 1gb/s, 100gb/s
• Access network (last mile)
– Copper (ADSL, VDSL)
– Fiber (FTTH)
– Wireless LAN (WiFi, WiMAX)
– Cellular access (3G – HSPA; LTE; Femtocell)
• Regulatory arrangement
– Who does what?
– When
– Smart use of RF Spectrum

Broadband Challenge 1:

• Concession trap
– Delay in 3G licensing & deployment
– Problems with existing concessions and loss of
revenues to state-owned telcos once 2G providers
moving their customers over to their new 3G network
– State-owned telcos: rolling back of privatization and
lack of incentives to compete

Our Entangled Regulatory
Environment needs a big clean up

Existing Mobile Concessions
Operator Network Concession Period Revenue
Granted by (Year expired) Sharing

AIS 900 GSM TOT 25 years 15-30%
(2015)

DTAC 1800 GSM CAT 27 years 12-30%
(2017)

Orange 1800 GSM CAT 16 years 25-30%
(True move) (2013)

DPC 1800 GSM CAT 16 years 25-30%
(2015)

End the concessions sooner...
Source: Adapted from http://www.ndaventures.com/Thailand_Telecom_Brief.pdf p.6

Challenge 2:

• FTTx/ FTTH for Thailand
– Upgrading from copper to optical fiber
– Migrating to IP-based/ packet-switched networks
– Appropriate investment models – Government
funding? Public-private partnership? Private
investment? Combination of methods?

New technologies needs solid national
open access network backbone

Challenge 3:

• Some pressing regulatory issues
– Strong competition policy to discourage abuse of
power by incumbents
• Account separation/ structural separation
– Open access backbone network
• Reducing redundancy
– Unbundling policy for last miles
– Hand-off policy for value-added services
– Consumer protection: Price, speed & quality of
service


Infrastructure Sweet Spots and
Happy Operators


Challenge 4:

• Bridging the digital divide
– Moving forwards technologically while ensuring
nobody is left behind
– Appropriate investment models to encourage
broadband deployment in rural and other cost-
prohibitive areas
• Deployment of wired + wireless networks
• Appropriate USO/ funding mechanisms

Watch for LTE and Femtocells,
and be watchful for 3G and WiMAX.

The Way Forward - 1

• Addressing management and regulatory issues
– End of concession era
– ICT2020 and the national broadband plan?
• Upgrading the networks
– Backbone: Complete migration from copper to fiber
– Last miles: 100% coverage using a combination of wired and
wireless technologies
• Investing in infrastructure with “sustainability” in
mind
– Gradual upgrades
– Shared resources with little redundancy/ Open access networks
– Reuse of equipment where possible


The Way Forward - 2
• Clean up the Concession Contracts
• Redefine TOT/CAT Infrastructure Sweet Spots
• Create happy operator environment –
level-playing field
• Creating local industry on broadband
infrastructure
– Service Innovations by Thai Companies
– Export potential
• Protecting & educating consumers
– Focus on price, speed, and quality of broadband
services
– Channels to address grievance

Last, but not least
Other issues
– Security threats for Internet and Cloud Computing
– Privacy
– DRM

“There are many good plans in Thailand.
You've got to predict whether they
can be implemented and who will do it.”


Q&A

Thank you for your attention
htk@nectec.or.th

Thailand And Technology Trends

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