Managing Growth & Profits  in the Yottabyte Era
Chetan Sharma Consulting <ul><li>Market Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Research and Forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
http://www.chetansharma.com
Mobile Ecosystem TRENDS
Mobile Ecosystem is getting Complex Fixed broadband network operator TV creation & distribution Search Other CE creation &...
Broadband requirements are increasing
Flat Rate Economy <ul><li>Surge in data usage is enticing consumers to go flat rate </li></ul><ul><li>Flat Rate prices are...
Arrival of the  yottabyte era
Source: Calit2 Hiperwall  – Highest Resolution Display on the planet 287 million pixels, 70 monitors, 10Gbps connections
 
What is Yottabyte? <ul><li>1 Yottabyte = 10 24  bytes (or 10 12  terabytes) </li></ul><ul><li>In 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Gl...
Two (Multi-Billion) Types of Opportunities <ul><li>Technologies that help manage the data growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HSP...
Data Consumption Trends Source: T-Mobile, 2010 Source: Verizon
Mobile Data Traffic Growth 15 Times 29% of the mobile traffic 90% of the mobile traffic 34% of the revenues 17% of the rev...
Wireless vs. Wireline By 2013, Mobile will lag Wireline traffic by only 5 years
Traffic distribution by device type <ul><li>ATT carries almost 50% of the US data traffic </li></ul><ul><li>ATT -  0.6% of...
Revenue vs. Usage
Unpredictable sources of data growth
SOLUTIONS
Implications of Traffic Growth <ul><li>Network Evolution Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Network Operation Strategy </li></ul><...
Different IP network needs  Web Browsing Throughput Delay Tolerance/Bufferability VoIP Video conf HQ  audio Bulk File Tran...
Carrier Strategy Factors <ul><li>Spectrum position </li></ul><ul><li>3G and 3.5G technology deployment lifecycle </li></ul...
Solutions to mitigate data costs <ul><li>Multi-pronged strategy is essential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WiFi/Femto-Cell deploym...
Management of Data Requires  Multiple Strategies
Bottom-Line <ul><li>Need to have a Strategy  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>by applications (video, browsing, apps) </li></ul></ul>...
LTE doesn ’t help significantly in the short-term No major impact initially LTE alone is not going to make a significant d...
Need a holistic approach to data management By pursuing a holistic strategy, costs can be lowered by at least 70% in 5 years
CONTEXT DRIVEN ECONOMY
Context drives everything Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
Analytics framework Source: Mobile Advertising, John Wiley, 2008
Summary <ul><li>Problem Statement: Massive Data Usage Coming </li></ul><ul><li>Growth will need to be managed at various l...
Thank You [email_address] Twitter.com/chetansharma
 
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Oren Michaels's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2010 America

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Oren Michaels's Presentation at Emerging Communication Conference & Awards 2010 America

  1. 2. Managing Growth & Profits in the Yottabyte Era
  2. 3. Chetan Sharma Consulting <ul><li>Market Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Research and Forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitive Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Market Sizing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strategy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer & Enterprise </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Roadmap </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Product and Technology Strategy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Due-Diligence </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>R&D </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Business Plan Development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue Models </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Intellectual Property </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategy, Audit, & Policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Alcatel Lucent </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Disney </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Motorola </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>KTF </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Comcast </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Infospace </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Startups </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Others </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Patents, Infringement analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Patent Mining and Valuation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Litigation – Consulting & Testifying Expert </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Qualcomm vs. Broadcom (ITC) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sony Ericsson vs. Samsung (ITC) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>FedEx vs. Katz </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>AT&T Mobility </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sprint Nextel vs. Verizon Wireless </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Everypath and E*Trade vs. Ajaxo </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Others </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>8 yr old Seattle based Strategy firm exclusively focused on Mobile </li></ul><ul><li>Advisor to major operators, brands, startups, VCs, and Fortune 500 firms around the world. </li></ul><ul><li>Strategy for each of the top 6 global mobile data operators </li></ul><ul><li>Have a unique 360 o view of the ecosystem </li></ul>
  3. 4. http://www.chetansharma.com
  4. 5. Mobile Ecosystem TRENDS
  5. 6. Mobile Ecosystem is getting Complex Fixed broadband network operator TV creation & distribution Search Other CE creation & distribution Software & applications Mobile Operators Social Networking mPayments Home networking & automation Games Fixed video network operator Music creation & distribution Print creation & distribution Movie creation & distribution Mobile device creation & distribution Consumers Source: Adapted from T-Mobile USA, Inc.
  6. 7. Broadband requirements are increasing
  7. 8. Flat Rate Economy <ul><li>Surge in data usage is enticing consumers to go flat rate </li></ul><ul><li>Flat Rate prices are coming down (more bundling with data - $40 all you can eat voice/data) </li></ul><ul><li>US – 20%, Japan – 70%+ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Willcom the company that started it all went bankrupt earlier this year </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Raises some questions </li></ul><ul><li>How do you fund media when flat rate pricing keeps coming down? Is advertising the only answer? </li></ul><ul><li>Can Cellular take it? Can operators maintain profitability per MB? WiFi and Femtocells to the rescue? </li></ul><ul><li>How do you manage the surge? Usage caps, network expansion? </li></ul>
  8. 9. Arrival of the yottabyte era
  9. 10. Source: Calit2 Hiperwall – Highest Resolution Display on the planet 287 million pixels, 70 monitors, 10Gbps connections
  10. 12. What is Yottabyte? <ul><li>1 Yottabyte = 10 24 bytes (or 10 12 terabytes) </li></ul><ul><li>In 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Global IP Traffic > 177,984,000 terabytes </li></ul><ul><li>Global Mobile Data Traffic > 1,760,000 terabytes </li></ul><ul><li>(1%) </li></ul><ul><li>By 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Global IP Traffic > 667,044,000 terabytes (x3) </li></ul><ul><li>Global Mobile Data Traffic > 54,300,000 terabytes (x30) </li></ul><ul><li>(8%) </li></ul>Sources: Cisco, Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
  11. 13. Two (Multi-Billion) Types of Opportunities <ul><li>Technologies that help manage the data growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HSPA+, 4G, WLAN, Femtocell, Optimization, Congestion management, Policy Management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technologies that take advantage of the data growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analytics, Intelligence, User experience, Advertising, Privacy and Identity management </li></ul></ul>
  12. 14. Data Consumption Trends Source: T-Mobile, 2010 Source: Verizon
  13. 15. Mobile Data Traffic Growth 15 Times 29% of the mobile traffic 90% of the mobile traffic 34% of the revenues 17% of the revenues
  14. 16. Wireless vs. Wireline By 2013, Mobile will lag Wireline traffic by only 5 years
  15. 17. Traffic distribution by device type <ul><li>ATT carries almost 50% of the US data traffic </li></ul><ul><li>ATT - 0.6% of the subscriber base consumes 40% of the smart/super phone traffic </li></ul><ul><li>By next year, smart/super phones will exceed data card traffic (US) </li></ul><ul><li>However, Signaling consumes more resources than data </li></ul><ul><li>Signaling traffic is growing over 50% faster than the data traffic </li></ul><ul><li>Smartphone signaling traffic is 8x that of data card signaling (source: Airvana) </li></ul>
  16. 18. Revenue vs. Usage
  17. 19. Unpredictable sources of data growth
  18. 20. SOLUTIONS
  19. 21. Implications of Traffic Growth <ul><li>Network Evolution Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Network Operation Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Network Storage Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Devices </li></ul><ul><li>Carrier Customer Support </li></ul><ul><li>Application Developers </li></ul><ul><li>Business/Pricing models </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory regimes </li></ul>
  20. 22. Different IP network needs Web Browsing Throughput Delay Tolerance/Bufferability VoIP Video conf HQ audio Bulk File Transfer High Quality Video Download E-commerce Streaming Video Voice Msg E-mail Telemedicine/ Teletraining Real time HD Video Current Internet Applications Growing Internet Applications Managed Network Applications Key: Gaming “ Burstiness” Source: AT&T
  21. 23. Carrier Strategy Factors <ul><li>Spectrum position </li></ul><ul><li>3G and 3.5G technology deployment lifecycle </li></ul><ul><li>Existing Broadband infrastructure investments </li></ul><ul><li>Network traffic and distribution of devices and traffic </li></ul><ul><li>Demographics and subscriber growth </li></ul><ul><li>Short-term and Long-term customer acquisition strategies in consumer and enterprise segments </li></ul><ul><li>Network Coverage and Pricing Plans </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive position </li></ul><ul><li>Financial resources </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-play position and strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Others </li></ul>
  22. 24. Solutions to mitigate data costs <ul><li>Multi-pronged strategy is essential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WiFi/Femto-Cell deployment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Faster LTE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fiber/Light deployment (backhaul) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Network Sharing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Core traffic Offload </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Congestion Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incentives to fill the troughs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incentives/Loyalty programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Network Optimization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadcast Mobile Video </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Redefine Smart phones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Education – Developers, Consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Business Models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Services </li></ul></ul>
  23. 25. Management of Data Requires Multiple Strategies
  24. 26. Bottom-Line <ul><li>Need to have a Strategy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>by applications (video, browsing, apps) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>by users (heavy/medium/low consumption) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>by time of day (peak, off-peak) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>by location (indoor, outdoor) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>by business models (flat rate, tiered, mix, adv) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>by device types (data cards, smart/super phones, feature phones, others) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>by spectrum </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>by backhaul (copper, fiber, light, microwave) </li></ul></ul>
  25. 27. LTE doesn ’t help significantly in the short-term No major impact initially LTE alone is not going to make a significant dent for the next 2-3 years Similarly, getting more spectrum will only go so far
  26. 28. Need a holistic approach to data management By pursuing a holistic strategy, costs can be lowered by at least 70% in 5 years
  27. 29. CONTEXT DRIVEN ECONOMY
  28. 30. Context drives everything Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2010
  29. 31. Analytics framework Source: Mobile Advertising, John Wiley, 2008
  30. 32. Summary <ul><li>Problem Statement: Massive Data Usage Coming </li></ul><ul><li>Growth will need to be managed at various levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network/Device </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Application/Developers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer/Enterprise Expectations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Business Model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulatory </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Opportunities in </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Management of data growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding of data (and consumer behavior) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Enhancing user experience, launching new services </li></ul></ul></ul>
  31. 33. Thank You [email_address] Twitter.com/chetansharma

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