Explaining the history of Thai politics and the current political situation as of 30 Jan 2014. Presenting data that never been brought together before and adds new perspectives.

1. ?
Thai politics: It’s a street fight
The Democrat Party has been fighting against Thaksin’s
consolidation of the rural vote
The Democrats and Bangkok voters had more control when
opposition parties were small and fractured
Thaksin consolidated rural parties into a voting bloc that has
dominated Parliament until now
30 January 2014
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2. The Democrat Party has been fighting against Thaksin’s
consolidation of the rural vote
 We chart the past 13
general elections in
Thailand to show the shifts
in power between the
major parties
 In the seven elections
from 1983 to 1996,
pre-Thaksin, about 11
parties other than the
Democrat Party contested
 This splintering of rural
MPs allowed the Democrats
and Bangkok voters the
ability to participate
 In 2001, Thaksin’s new
Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love
Thais) Party, arrived on the
scene and consolidated the
votes that had been going
to the splintered parties
Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand
30 January 2014
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3. The Democrats and Bangkok voters had more control when
opposition parties were small and fractured
 In the pre-Thaksin era
House of Representatives
within the Thai Parliament,
power shifted between
the smaller parties
 This meant that the
Democrat Party and Bangkok
voters were able to gain
substantial representation
 As Thaksin consolidated
the fractured parties, he was
able to dominate Parliament
 But he was a victim of his
own success and Thailand’s
winner-take-all mentality in
politics
 Unfortunately, such
domination to the exclusion
of the Democrat Party left it
with no hope of influence
inside the system
Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand
30 January 2014
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4. Thaksin consolidated rural parties into a voting bloc
that has dominated Parliament until now
 Between the post -2006coup attacks on Thaksin’s
legitimacy and his party’s
poor policy choices (e.g. the
rice-pledging scheme), his
party (now called Pheu Thai)
is vulnerable
 The Democrat Party has
maintained control of more
than 30% of seats in the
House, which shows that
its support base is strong
and stable
 In addition, the power
of smaller parties (e.g.
Bhumjaithai and Chart Thai
Pattana) is starting to rise and
hence could potentially swing
to either side
 At the polls, the Democrat
Party, with a good plan, could
attack its vulnerable
opponent
Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand
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30 January 2014
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5. The blame game
PDRC*
Election
Legitimacy
Caretaker
People’s
council
PTP**
Election just brings back old problems due to
corruption of voters by Pheu Thai Party (PTP)
politicians
The PTP lacks legitimacy since it rejected the
Constitutional Court’s ruling against the party’s
move to change the constitution
Election is the cornerstone of democracy and
it is the only process that gives a person the
right to represent the people
The Constitutional Court overstepped its
jurisdiction by ruling that parliament, the
representatives of the people, cannot modify
the constitution
Parliament’s dissolution means the government It is common practice for the outgoing
should be handed back to the people; the prime government to manage the affairs of the state
minister (PM) and cabinet must step down from until an election is held. The constitution
their caretaker roles. Wants people to reform, not contains no provision that says power can be
representatives of people
handed to the people, a council or any other
such grouping
The people are demanding a “people’s council” to The election process is at the core of
reform Thailand’s democracy, hence the
democracy and must proceed; there is nothing
government must step aside and the election
in the constitution that allows for such a
must be delayed
“people’s council”
Source: LifeFORCE, Contributing writer: Mueanmas Bonngork
Notes: *People’s Democratic Reform Committee, **Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party (PTP)
30 January 2014
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6. The blame game
Source: LifeFORCE
Notes: *People’s Democratic Reform Committee, **Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party (PTP)
30 January 2014
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30 January 2014
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