Bridging the Gap Burma/Myanmar Six Months Later Marina Kramer Berlin, 07 April 2010
“ Seven-Step Roadmap to Democracy” (2003) <ul><li>STEP 5    “ Holding of free and fair elections  for Pyithu Hluttaws (leg...
Electoral Laws (08.03.2010) <ul><li>1.  Union Election Commission Law   (SPDC Law No. 1/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>2.  Politi...
Elections <ul><li>1990 Electoral Law repealed </li></ul><ul><li>Electoral legislation- „ fair “, but  not free  elections?...
The Military Government <ul><li>New  Business Ventures  (e.g. Myanmar Economic Holdings Company) </li></ul><ul><li>USDA  (...
Ethnic States <ul><li>Constitution: gives them more political legitimacy, but no autonomy  </li></ul><ul><li>Integration i...
Political Parties/ Opposition <ul><li>Deadline for registration (existing parties): 07 May 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>NLD </li...
National Parties (until 07.04.2010) <ul><li>Union of Myanmar Federation of National Politics  (registered) </li></ul><ul><...
Regional Parties   (until 07.04.2010) <ul><li>Kachin State Progressive Party* </li></ul><ul><li>The Union of Myanmar Natio...
Contested in the 1990 elections, not registered yet: <ul><li>National League for Democracy  (will not contest) </li></ul><...
Opposition in Exile <ul><li>The majority is  against the elections </li></ul><ul><li>National Council of the Union of Burm...
<ul><li>PCIA, p. 51 </li></ul><ul><li>„ Compromise is conflict prevention </li></ul><ul><li>Crucial to conflict prevention...
<ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Bridging the gap 070410 berlin

576 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
576
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Bridging the gap 070410 berlin

  1. 1. Bridging the Gap Burma/Myanmar Six Months Later Marina Kramer Berlin, 07 April 2010
  2. 2. “ Seven-Step Roadmap to Democracy” (2003) <ul><li>STEP 5 “ Holding of free and fair elections for Pyithu Hluttaws (legislative bodies) according to the new constitution.” </li></ul><ul><li>Announced for 2010 </li></ul>
  3. 3. Electoral Laws (08.03.2010) <ul><li>1. Union Election Commission Law (SPDC Law No. 1/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>2. Political Parties Registration Law (SPDC Law No. 2/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>3. Pyithu Hluttaw (lower house) Election Law (SPDC Law No. 3/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>4. Amyotha Hluttaw (upper house) Election Law (SPDC Law No. 4/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>5. Region Hluttaw or State Hluttaw Election Law (SPDC Law No. 5/2010) </li></ul><ul><li>6. Bylaws under laws no. 2 – 5 </li></ul>
  4. 4. Elections <ul><li>1990 Electoral Law repealed </li></ul><ul><li>Electoral legislation- „ fair “, but not free elections? (e.g. Press Scrutiny Board) </li></ul><ul><li>The most important political shift in a generation-> generational cleavage </li></ul><ul><li>Many political groups contemplating registration (e.g. 1990: 235 in 1990-> 130 participated-> 27 won seats) </li></ul><ul><li>Citizenship requirements more inclusive (e.g. Rohingya-temporary registration certificates) </li></ul><ul><li>Restriction in the PPR: in the 1990 Electoral Law no restrictions on prisoners being members of political parties </li></ul>
  5. 5. The Military Government <ul><li>New Business Ventures (e.g. Myanmar Economic Holdings Company) </li></ul><ul><li>USDA (24 million members)-> regrouping as a political party? </li></ul><ul><li>PM Gen Thein Sein may leave his current post to head the new political wing of USDA </li></ul><ul><li>Retired officers and loyalists to take part in the „civilian government“? </li></ul>
  6. 6. Ethnic States <ul><li>Constitution: gives them more political legitimacy, but no autonomy </li></ul><ul><li>Integration into the „Border Guard Forces“ (extended deadline 28 February 2010) </li></ul><ul><li>-> United Wa State Army- United Wa State Party </li></ul><ul><li>-> Kokang‘s Myanmar National Alliance (declared unlawful) </li></ul><ul><li>-> Kachin Independence Army, Shan State Army-N, UWSA etc.- deadline 22, 28 April </li></ul><ul><li>PPR (Section 12(a)(iii)): forbids „direct or indirect contacts with armed insurgent groups, terrorists or unlawful associations“ </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. Kachin State Progressive Party-> KIO </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on States/Regions- > Marginalisation of the „national races“ on the national level? </li></ul>
  7. 7. Political Parties/ Opposition <ul><li>Deadline for registration (existing parties): 07 May 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>NLD </li></ul><ul><li>Reopens offices </li></ul><ul><li>Reiterates the position voiced in the „ Schwegondaing Declaration“ </li></ul><ul><li>ASSK </li></ul><ul><li>NLD challenges Electoral Law (Supreme Court) </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict-prone cleavage between the Government and democratic opposition </li></ul>
  8. 8. National Parties (until 07.04.2010) <ul><li>Union of Myanmar Federation of National Politics (registered) </li></ul><ul><li>88 Generation Student Youths (Union of Myanmar) (registered)* </li></ul><ul><li>National Unity Party </li></ul><ul><li>National Political Alliance </li></ul><ul><li>Union Democratic Alliance </li></ul><ul><li>Democratic Party* </li></ul><ul><li>Union Solidarity and Development Association (expected to form more than one party)* e.g. USDA Party, Guidance Democracy Party? </li></ul><ul><li>United Democratic Party* </li></ul><ul><li>Peace and Diversity Party </li></ul><ul><li>A party formed by Phyo Min Thein (the name of the party hasn't been announced yet) </li></ul><ul><li>A party formed by self-described “Myanmar Bengalis” (the name of the party hasn't been announced) </li></ul><ul><li>New Age People‘s Party </li></ul>
  9. 9. Regional Parties (until 07.04.2010) <ul><li>Kachin State Progressive Party* </li></ul><ul><li>The Union of Myanmar National Force Arakan State  </li></ul><ul><li>Mon National Democratic Front (not contesting) </li></ul><ul><li>Karen People's Party </li></ul><ul><li>Nationalist NLD* </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific National Politics Party, based in Maymyo (Pyin Oo Lwin) </li></ul><ul><li>Shwe Ohn‘s Party (Union Democracy Party?)* </li></ul><ul><li>Union of Myanmar National Political Forces (Rakhine State)* (gvt line) </li></ul>
  10. 10. Contested in the 1990 elections, not registered yet: <ul><li>National League for Democracy (will not contest) </li></ul><ul><li>National Unity Party (applied for registration)* (BSPP) </li></ul><ul><li>Shan National League for Democracy </li></ul><ul><li>Union Pa-o National  Organization </li></ul><ul><li>Shan State Kokang Democratic Party </li></ul><ul><li>Mro or Khami National Solidarity Organization </li></ul><ul><li>Lahu National Development Party </li></ul><ul><li>Union Karen League </li></ul><ul><li>Kokang Democracy and Unity Party </li></ul><ul><li>Wa National Development Party </li></ul><ul><li>Arakan League for Democracy (will not contest)* </li></ul>
  11. 11. Opposition in Exile <ul><li>The majority is against the elections </li></ul><ul><li>National Council of the Union of Burma ( NCUB) : rejects the five electoral laws </li></ul><ul><li>National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB) : rejects the process </li></ul><ul><li>Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC) : does not accept the Constitution nor the elections, but encourages ethnic parties and candidates to participate </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>PCIA, p. 51 </li></ul><ul><li>„ Compromise is conflict prevention </li></ul><ul><li>Crucial to conflict prevention will be how much compromise can be found between Government and opposition plans and how much the Government Roadmap turns out to be a genuine vehicle for democratisation. The three crucial issues are: </li></ul><ul><li>1. How willing are different opposition groups to accommodate the different steps? </li></ul><ul><li>2. How willing will the Government be to consult the opposition groups and accommodate their wishes to modify these steps or take on board their views during implementation? </li></ul><ul><li>3. To what extent does the Government see the Seven Steps as a genuine transition exercise, as opposed to a way of justifying continued military rule?“ </li></ul><ul><li>Any prospect of the regime recognising „in some way“ the results of the 1990 elections does not seem realistic </li></ul><ul><li>Any hope of engaging the opposition („tripartite dialogue“) seems unrealistic </li></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>

×