Presentation to the Manitoba chapter of the Canadian Water Resources Association, November 27, 2008

1. TALES
IN
the story of Prairie drought
TIMBER written in tree rings

4. stationarity
A stationary time series is free of trends, shifts
or periodicity, and has statistical parameters that
remain constant through time.

5. STATIONARIT Y

6. Christopher Milly, Julio Betancourt, Malin Falkenmark, Robert
Hirsch, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Dennis Lettenmaier, Ronald Stouffer
Stationarity is dead: whither
water management?
Science 319, 573-574, 2008

7. 100
years of stream and lake gauging

8. resource allocation

9. worst-case scenarios

12. photograph courtesy Manitoba Hydro

13. risk

14. climate change
variability

16. 40000 600
total energy 400
(000 000 kWh)
30000
200
20000 0
-200
10000
-400
0 -600
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: Annual reports of the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board

17. 40000 600
total energy 400
(000 000 kWh)
30000
200
20000 0
-200
10000
net income -400
($M CDN)
0 -600
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: Annual reports of the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board

18. 58%
Percentage of Canada’s power supply
19%
12%
6%
3% 2%
Source: Canadian Electricity Association

19. 100
years of stream and lake gauging

20. enough?

22. regional differences

24. South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon
relative change
in summer flow
Schindler and Donahue, 2006, PNAS

25. Annual discharge since 1924
+ 58%
NO TREND
+ 52%
+ 46%
NO TREND
NO TREND
NO TREND
NO TREND

26. uncertain futures

28. relative change in runoff
at mid-century
Milly et al., 2005, Nature

29. alternative?

31. paleoclimatology
the study of the Earth’s climate prior to the
period of instrumental measurements

33. R ECO R D S F RO M ANCIEN T TR EES

34. Photograph by Andy Frassetto

36. Tree-ring display at elementary school
Photograph courtesy Tom Swetnam

37. ARIZ
ONA

38. A. E. Douglass
University of Arizona

39. “
The trees composing the forest rejoice
and lament with its successes and failures
and carry year by year something of its
story in their annual rings.
A.E. DOUGLASS

40. Same environmental forcings
Similar
growth patterns

41. Same environmental forcings
Similar
growth patterns

44. Photograph by Howard Arnott

45. Global network of tree-ring records
44

47. 755 m3/s
847 m3/s
809 m3/s
770 m3/s
823 m3/s
787 m3/s
901 m3/s
3

49. CLIMATE
direct
HYDROLOGY

50. CLIMATE
direct direct
PROXIES HYDROLOGY

51. CLIMATE
direct direct
PROXIES HYDROLOGY
indirect

58. Photo: Tom Harlan

59. Photo: Peter Kelly

63. Photo: Greg Pederson

64. 60

65. Martin-Philippe Girardin
Canadian Forest Service
Greg Pederson
United States Geological Survey
Glen MacDonald David Sauchyn Emma Watson
UCLA University of Regina Environment Canada
Erik Nielsen Jacques Tardif
Manitoba Geological Survey University of Winnipeg

66. 2,860
trees

67. 889,862
tree rings

69. Prairie tree-ring network

70. climate change
variability

71. How bad can Prairie
drought get?

72. 755 m3/s
847 m3/s
809 m3/s
770 m3/s
823 m3/s
787 m3/s
901 m3/s
3

73. “ This
must
be
voodoo. ”
Anonymous water
manager

74. How good are
drought records from
tree rings?

75. geography matters

78. 10 southern Alberta 3
2
5
1
Ringwidth
PDSI
0 0
-1
-5
-2
-3
-10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate
Year (A.D.)

79. 10 southern Alberta 3
2
5
1
Ringwidth
PDSI
0 0
-1
-5
r = 0.62 -2
-3
-10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate
Year (A.D.)

80. northwestern Ontario 3
6
2
4
1
Ringwidth
2
PDSI
0 0
-2 -1
-4 r = 0.40
-2
-6
-3
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
St. George et al., (accepted), Journal of Climate Year (A.D.) 76

81. seasonality

83. Photo: New York Times
79

84. 80

85. 81

86. “
Trees are not thermometers
or raingauges.
KEITH BRIFFA AND COLLEAGUES

87. 755 m3/s
847 m3/s
809 m3/s
770 m3/s
823 m3/s
787 m3/s
901 m3/s
3

88. Very wet
Wet
Average
Dry
Very dry

89. t per fect
“ Pa
bu
leo d
t can
ata a
be a
re no
n imp rovem ent. ”
Ben Harding
nvironm ental
AMEC E

90. How bad can
drought get?

91. 100
years of stream and lake gauging

93. ‘Now’ ‘Then’
(AD 1900 - present) (AD 1500 - 1900)

94. geography matters

95. base map courtesy Lake of the Woods Control Board

96. 1783

98. How bad can
drought get?

99. 1910

101. How bad can
drought get?

102. more persistent
more severe

103. 1860s

104. 1842 to 1876
Above average Below average

105. 1842 to 1876
Above average Below average

106. 1842 to 1876
Above average Below average

107. 101

108. 1720s

109. 58 oN
56 oN
1718 - 1722
54 oN
52 oN
50 oN
48 oN
oW
90
114 oW o o
oW
96
108 W 102 W
Ringwidth anomaly
−2
-2 −1 0
0 1 2
+2 (deviations)

110. “
Trees are not thermometers
or raingauges.
KEITH BRIFFA AND COLLEAGUES

111. 1 1936-1940
0.8
0.6
Probability
0.4
0.2
0
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2
PDSI

112. 1 1936-1940
0.8
0.6
Probability
27 percent
0.4 below -5 PDSI
0.2
0
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2
PDSI

113. 1 1936-1940
0.8
0.6
Probability
0.4
9 percent
0.2 below -6 PDSI
0
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2
PDSI

114. ‘Now’ ‘Then’
(AD 1900 - present) (AD 1500 - 1900)

116. LE SS ONS L E A RNED

117. PUBLICATIONS
1 WINNIPEG RIVER STREAMFLOW
St. George, S. 2007. Streamflow in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada: trends, extremes and climate linkages. Journal of
Hydrology 332, 396-411.
2 TREE-RING RECORDS FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
St. George, S., Meko, D.M. and Evans, M.E. 2008. Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River
basin, Canada since AD 1783. Quaternary Research 70, 158-172.
3 PRAIRIE DROUGHTS SINCE AD 1500
St. George, S., Meko, D.M., Girardin, M.P., Nielsen, E., Pederson, G., Sauchyn, D.J., Tardif, J. and Watson, E. (accepted).
The tree-ring record of summer drought in the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate.

118. WORLD
D ATA C E N T E R f o r
PA L E O C L I M AT O L O G Y

121. does the past
really matter?

122. 100
years of stream and lake gauging

123. 3
main
applications

124. climate change
YOU CAN TOUCH

125. BENCHMARKS
for recent events and trends

126. starting points for
‘paleo’ scenarios
118

128. Alberta Environment
Agriculture Canada
Alberta Parks
AMEC
City of Calgary
DIAND
Ducks Unlimited
Environment Canada
EPCOR Water Services
Golder Associates
Government of Yukon
Klohn Crippen Berger Ltd.
Landscape Irrigation Solutions Ltd.
Manitoba Hydro
Manitoba Water Stewardship
Natural Resources Canada
North Saskatchewan Watershed Alliance
Parks Canada
Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Agency
R. Halliday & Associates
Sahtu Renewable Resources Board
Saskatchewan Agriculture
Saskatchewan Water Authority
Siksika Nation
Sustainability Resources Inc.
University of Calgary
University of Saskachewan

129. USER PRIORITIES

130. USER PRIORITIES
MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE

131. USER PRIORITIES
MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE
HOLD TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS

132. USER PRIORITIES
MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE
HOLD TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS
TEST PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS

133. USER PRIORITIES
MAKE PALEO-DATA MORE ACCESSIBLE
HOLD TECHNICAL WORKSHOPS
TEST PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS
KEEP SCIENTISTS AND USERS TALKING

134. VIC BAKER
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

135. “ HAPPEN AGAIN
Common sense holds that what has really happened
CAN
VIC BAKER
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

136. Photo: Monceau
web.mac.com/scottstgeorge