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Wellington Business Keynote - Paul Callaghan

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Wellington Business Keynote - Paul Callaghan

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Wellington Business Keynote - Paul Callaghan

  1. 1. Beyond the Farm and the Theme Park Transforming New Zealand s culture and economy Paul Callaghan Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences Victoria University of Wellington
  2. 2. www.macdiarmid.ac.nz
  3. 3. One-sided access NMR
  4. 4. 100 Alpine Zone Tussock percent total land area 80 Exotic grassland 60 40 Exotic forest Scrub, wetlands Recent history of New Zealand land cover 20 Native forest Settlements, crops 0 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 year
  5. 5. Land area Net Dairy exports http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/worldmapper/textindex/text_transport.html
  6. 6. Real per capita GDP (OECD average = 100) 150 USA 140 130 Ireland 120 Australia 110 100 Finland 90 80 New Zealand 70 60 50 Source: OECD
  7. 7. Dunedin September 14 living room 12 temperature oC 10 8 6 4 2 0 outdoors 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 time (hh:mm) 22 August to 5 October World Health Organisation recommended EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
  8. 8. New Zealand average Number of deaths New Zealand average EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
  9. 9. New Zealand average Number of deaths New Zealand average EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
  10. 10. How many New Zealanders* live abroad? (i) 100,000 (ii) 200,000 (iii) 500,000 (iv) 1,000,000 (v) 1,500,000 *NZ born
  11. 11. Diaspora 2001 New Zealand 12% Australia 2% UK 6% Canada 4% http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ research-policy/wp/2004/04-13
  12. 12. A century of decline The Economist industrial commodity-price index real *$ terms 1845-50 = 100 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1850 1900 1950 2004 *Adjusted by US GDP deflator
  13. 13. Effective markets Legal frameworks Property rights Honest work ethic Lack of corruption
  14. 14. Effective markets Legal frameworks Property rights Honest work ethic Lack of corruption Low taxation? Sweden Per capita GDP 31% higher than NZ Top personal tax rate 56% VAT 25% Australia Per capita GDP 30% higher than NZ Top personal tax rate 45% GST 10%
  15. 15. Nathan Rothschild 1821
  16. 16. Pasture research. Strain and Breeding Nitrogen fixing role Bush-Sickness-cobalt deficiency Integrated Pastoral Systems The Role of Phosphate Aerial topdressing The Electric Fence Milk Tankers Fewer Farms - Bigger Herds The Science of Milk Products Geoffrey Peren Mechanised Cheesemaking Francis Dry
  17. 17. Meat Exports/Pharmaceutical Imports 2020 19 1818 17 1616 15 1414 13 1212 Ratio 11 1010 9 88 7 66 5 44 3 22 1 00 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1968 1974 1980 1986 Year 1992 1998 2004 2010 Year Source: David Bibby, 1998 Updated PTC 2007
  18. 18. How much more income per annum does New Zealand need to match Australia's per capita GDP? (i) US $5 bn (ii) US $10 bn (iii) US $20 bn (iv) US $30 bn (v) US $50 bn
  19. 19. Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average shortfall US$ 29.2 billion New Zealand 2006 GDP US $106.9 billion New Zealand 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $26,200 Australia 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $33,300 OECD-NZ Institute http://www.nzinstitute.org/
  20. 20. Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion 8 2006 US$ 32 billion 6 4 2 0 NZ External Trade Statistics http://www.stats.govt.nz
  21. 21. NZ Greenhouse gas emissions http://www.mfe.govt.nz
  22. 22. Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed Track Name n2 Not at all Slightly Moderately Extremely Crowded Crowded Crowded Crowded North Island % % % % Lake 29 21 48 24 7 Waikaremoana (GW) Tongariro 51 27 45 18 10 (GW) UoO dept Tourism
  23. 23. Meet psycho for only $7950 Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani
  24. 24. Iceland Japan Canada Switzerland USA Australia Greece Spain UK Ireland Sweden Finland Austria Italy Netherlands Germany Belgium France
  25. 25. Iceland Japan USA A Canada Switzerland Australia B Greece Spain UK Ireland Sweden Finland Austria E C Italy Netherlands D Germany Belgium France
  26. 26. Iceland New Zealand Japan Canada Switzerland USA Australia Greece Spain UK Ireland Sweden Finland Austria Italy Netherlands Germany Belgium France
  27. 27. prosperity USA Ireland Switzerland Iceland Canada Austria Australia Belgium, Netherlands Finland UK Sweden France Japan Germany Italy Spain New Zealand Greece
  28. 28. The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee shortfall US $29.2 billion New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200 NZ $45,200 Australia GDP - Per Capita US $33,300 OECD-NZ Institute http://www.nzinstitute.org/ NZ $57,400 Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million* Total FTE New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million* To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36) We need another US $30 billion per annum exports New activity must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee FTE! * NZTE
  29. 29. What is the average revenue per employee for the NZ Tourism industry? (i) NZ$ 75,000 (ii) NZ$ 100,000 (iii) NZ$ 150,000 (iv) NZ$ 200,000 (v) NZ$ 300,000
  30. 30. $500,000 $400,000 Revenue per employee $300,000 $200,000 Needed for current per capita GDP $100,000 Tourism 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 FTE of employment
  31. 31. $500,000 $400,000 Revenue per employee $300,000 NZ Manufacturing Exports Total NZ Manufacturing $200,000 Needed for current Food manufacturing per capita GDP $100,000 Wine Tourism 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 FTE of employment
  32. 32. $500,000 Fonterra $400,000 Revenue per employee $300,000 NZ Manufacturing Exports Total NZ Manufacturing $200,000 Needed for current Food manufacturing per capita GDP $100,000 Wine Tourism 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 FTE of employment
  33. 33. $500,000 Fonterra $400,000 Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Revenue per employee $300,000 NZ Manufacturing Exports Total NZ Manufacturing $200,000 Needed for current Food manufacturing per capita GDP $100,000 Wine Tourism 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 FTE of employment
  34. 34. F and P appliances TIN100 Datacom F and P Healthcare New Zealand Technology Companies Navico NDA $1410m ProvencoCadmus Rakon Gallagher Weta Ltd Tait Electronics Ltd $500m Douglas pharmaceuticals Allied Telesis Methven Tru Test $400m Glidepath Dynamic controls CWF Hamilton Schneider electric $300m Skope industries BCS group Humanware Infinity group $200m NZ Pharmaceuticals $100m 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1 Rank
  35. 35. Our place on the research funding phase diagram Agriculture, F and F NZ POR $9 per kg IRL DEN CAN AUST FIN BEL MEX TA FR JPN NED SW GER SP UK USA Environment Industry $3000 per kg Source: David Bibby, IRL, 1998
  36. 36. New Economy Research Fund 1999-2005 New Zealand USA (and nearly everyone else) Abt Associates report to MoRST www.morst.govt.nz
  37. 37. www.hotscience.co.nz Beyond the Farm and the Themepark 50 minute documentary TVNZ 7 4,5,6 November 2008
  38. 38. Auckland University Press March 2009
  39. 39. Rich economies must defend themselves by remaining on the cutting edge of research, moving into new and growing branches, learning from others, finding the right niches, by cultivating and using ability and knowledge. Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise, their sense of identity and commitment to the common weal, their self-esteem, their ability to transmit these assets across the generations..
  40. 40. This document was created with Win2PDF available at http://www.win2pdf.com. The unregistered version of Win2PDF is for evaluation or non-commercial use only. This page will not be added after purchasing Win2PDF.

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