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Systematic Investment Strategy Through Market Turbulence By : Peter Lim CFP, RFP, CFA Level 2 Candidate
Topic Contents: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st  Century Investments
Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st  Century Investments
Equity Fund : Historical Charts Source: Quarter 4, 2007 Quarterly Fund Review of Public Mutual
Equity Fund : Historical Returns Source: Quarter 4, 2007 Quarterly Fund Review of Public Mutual
 
Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st  Century Investments
Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st  Century Investments
Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st  Century Investments
Quiz : Guess the market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Question 1 Question 1 : Will Market  be  higher  46.7% ?
Question 2 Question 2 : Will Market  be  higher  -14.91% ?
Question 3 Question 3 : Will Market  be  higher  -0.79% ?
Question 4 Question 4 : Will Market  be  higher  24.67% ?
Question 5 Question 5 : Will Market  be  higher  2.23% ?
Question 6 Question 6 : Will Market  be  higher  13.96% ?
Question 7 Question 7 : Will Market  be  higher  -12.45% ?
Question 8 Question 8 : Will Market  be  higher  -20.34% ?
Question 9 Question 9 : Will Market  be  higher  -0.06% ?
Question 10 Question 10 : Will Market  be  higher  -11.05% ?
Question 1 : 1981, Lower to 3.39%
Question 2 : 1984, Lower to -25.77%
Question 3 : 1986, Higher to 14.87%
Question 4 : 1989, Higher to 57.33%
Question 5 : 1990, Lower to -11.53%
Question 6 : 1993, Higher to 101.53%
Question 7 : 1997, Lower to -51.69%
Question 8 : 1998, Higher to 2.48%
Question 9 : 2000, Lower to -18.5%
Question 10 : 2001, Higher to 4.42%
Quotes from Warren Buffett ,[object Object],[object Object]
Quotes from Warren Buffett ,[object Object]
Quotes from Warren Buffett ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Imagine you own a casino table: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What can we learn from the past? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Systematic Investment Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Average ? 1. What is the Average Cost Per Unit ? (during the 2 months). ? $ 0.50 $ 1.00 Unit Price $ 100 2 Average $ 100 1 Invested Amount Month
Average Cost < Average Price Average Price = $ 0.75 per unit, Average Cost = $ 0.67 per unit only ! $ 0.50 $ 1.00 Unit Price 200 $ 100 2 300 $ 200 Total 100 $ 100 1 Units Bought Invested Amount Month
More vs Less Fund A -ggresive Fund B-oring ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],200 $ 0.50 2 300 Total 100 $ 1.00 1 Units Bought Unit Price Month 143 $ 0.70 2 268 Total 125 $ 0.80 1 Units Bought Unit Price Month
DCA - Application ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DCA - Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Start as soon as possible
Value Averaging (VA) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Value Averaging (VA) cont. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
VA Average Cost < DCA Average Cost DCA Average Cost = $ 0.67 per unit, VA Average Cost = $ 0.625 per unit only ! 400 400 100 # Units To Own 300 100 Units Obtained $ 200 $ 100 Total Value $ 150 $ 0.50 2 $ 250 Total $ 100 $ 1.00 1 Amount Invested Unit Price Month
VA Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAA) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ideas behind DAA 0% 100% Under Valued 25% 75% Slightly undervalued 50% 50% Fairly Valued 75% 25% Slightly overvalued 100% 0% Over Valued Bond Fund Equity Fund Market’s Valuation
Benefits of DAA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Application of DAA ,[object Object],[object Object],Today  (market is  slightly overvalued)
Exercise ,[object Object],[object Object]
Constant Unit Purchase  (Fixed # of Units Obtained)     RM  1.0000    Average cost per unit         3000 RM 3,000.00  Total 1000 RM 1,400.00  RM  1.40  3 1000 RM  600.00  RM  0.60  2 1000 RM 1,000.00  RM  1.00  1 Units Obtained Amount Invested Unit Price Month Constant Unit Purchase    
Dollar Cost Averaging  (Fixed Amount Invested)     RM  0.8873    Average cost per unit         3380.96 RM 3,000.00  Total 714.29 RM 1,000.00  RM  1.40  3 1666.67 RM 1,000.00  RM  0.60  2 1000.00 RM 1,000.00  RM  1.00  1 Units Obtained Amount Invested Unit Price Month Dollar Cost Averaging    
Value Averaging (Increase the Value by a fixed Amount)             RM 0.3422         Average cost per unit             733.33   2142.86       Total (1,666.67) -1190.48   2142.86 3,000.00  1.40  3 1,400.00  2333.33   3333.33 2,000.00  0.60  2 1,000.00  1000.00   1000.00 1,000.00  1.00  1 Amount Invested (RM) Units Obtained   # of Units to Own Total Value (RM) Unit Price Month Value Averaging    
Thoughts and consideration before applying DCA, VA and DAA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What would Benjamin Graham thought about it ,[object Object],[object Object]
Lessons Learned ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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System Investment Strategy Through Market Turbulence

  • 1. Systematic Investment Strategy Through Market Turbulence By : Peter Lim CFP, RFP, CFA Level 2 Candidate
  • 2.
  • 3. Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st Century Investments
  • 4. Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st Century Investments
  • 5. Equity Fund : Historical Charts Source: Quarter 4, 2007 Quarterly Fund Review of Public Mutual
  • 6. Equity Fund : Historical Returns Source: Quarter 4, 2007 Quarterly Fund Review of Public Mutual
  • 7.  
  • 8. Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st Century Investments
  • 9. Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st Century Investments
  • 10. Source: Frank Armstrong’s 21 st Century Investments
  • 11.
  • 12. Question 1 Question 1 : Will Market be higher 46.7% ?
  • 13. Question 2 Question 2 : Will Market be higher -14.91% ?
  • 14. Question 3 Question 3 : Will Market be higher -0.79% ?
  • 15. Question 4 Question 4 : Will Market be higher 24.67% ?
  • 16. Question 5 Question 5 : Will Market be higher 2.23% ?
  • 17. Question 6 Question 6 : Will Market be higher 13.96% ?
  • 18. Question 7 Question 7 : Will Market be higher -12.45% ?
  • 19. Question 8 Question 8 : Will Market be higher -20.34% ?
  • 20. Question 9 Question 9 : Will Market be higher -0.06% ?
  • 21. Question 10 Question 10 : Will Market be higher -11.05% ?
  • 22. Question 1 : 1981, Lower to 3.39%
  • 23. Question 2 : 1984, Lower to -25.77%
  • 24. Question 3 : 1986, Higher to 14.87%
  • 25. Question 4 : 1989, Higher to 57.33%
  • 26. Question 5 : 1990, Lower to -11.53%
  • 27. Question 6 : 1993, Higher to 101.53%
  • 28. Question 7 : 1997, Lower to -51.69%
  • 29. Question 8 : 1998, Higher to 2.48%
  • 30. Question 9 : 2000, Lower to -18.5%
  • 31. Question 10 : 2001, Higher to 4.42%
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. Average ? 1. What is the Average Cost Per Unit ? (during the 2 months). ? $ 0.50 $ 1.00 Unit Price $ 100 2 Average $ 100 1 Invested Amount Month
  • 42. Average Cost < Average Price Average Price = $ 0.75 per unit, Average Cost = $ 0.67 per unit only ! $ 0.50 $ 1.00 Unit Price 200 $ 100 2 300 $ 200 Total 100 $ 100 1 Units Bought Invested Amount Month
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. Start as soon as possible
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49. VA Average Cost < DCA Average Cost DCA Average Cost = $ 0.67 per unit, VA Average Cost = $ 0.625 per unit only ! 400 400 100 # Units To Own 300 100 Units Obtained $ 200 $ 100 Total Value $ 150 $ 0.50 2 $ 250 Total $ 100 $ 1.00 1 Amount Invested Unit Price Month
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. Ideas behind DAA 0% 100% Under Valued 25% 75% Slightly undervalued 50% 50% Fairly Valued 75% 25% Slightly overvalued 100% 0% Over Valued Bond Fund Equity Fund Market’s Valuation
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56. Constant Unit Purchase (Fixed # of Units Obtained)     RM 1.0000   Average cost per unit         3000 RM 3,000.00 Total 1000 RM 1,400.00 RM 1.40 3 1000 RM 600.00 RM 0.60 2 1000 RM 1,000.00 RM 1.00 1 Units Obtained Amount Invested Unit Price Month Constant Unit Purchase    
  • 57. Dollar Cost Averaging (Fixed Amount Invested)     RM 0.8873   Average cost per unit         3380.96 RM 3,000.00 Total 714.29 RM 1,000.00 RM 1.40 3 1666.67 RM 1,000.00 RM 0.60 2 1000.00 RM 1,000.00 RM 1.00 1 Units Obtained Amount Invested Unit Price Month Dollar Cost Averaging    
  • 58. Value Averaging (Increase the Value by a fixed Amount)             RM 0.3422         Average cost per unit             733.33   2142.86       Total (1,666.67) -1190.48   2142.86 3,000.00 1.40 3 1,400.00 2333.33   3333.33 2,000.00 0.60 2 1,000.00 1000.00   1000.00 1,000.00 1.00 1 Amount Invested (RM) Units Obtained   # of Units to Own Total Value (RM) Unit Price Month Value Averaging    
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63.