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Slovakia and the
   Eurocrisis
      Juraj Karpiš
    www.INESS.sk
    karpis@iness.sk
€uro Illusions
€uro-Party
Loans to Households and Nonfinancial Corporations as a
               % GDP 1998 vs. 2008
Two Years Later after EFSF, EFSM,
     IMF, ECB Intervention
Banks are Crucial in Europe
Debt as in WW2
Possible Scenarios
 high economic growth, EU grows out of debt
 dramatic increase in taxes, dramatic cuts in
  social benefits and pensions – debt repayment
 defaults - Nordic €, decomposition of EMU? –
  New Deutsche Mark? SK in or out? Plan B?
 inflation (Quantitative Easing or similar facility
  of buying bonds for new money produced by
  ECB, LTROs)
 transfer union / fiscal centralization – “fiscal
  compact”, redistribution of wealth and losses
  among EU countries, ESM, moral hazard,
  tragedy of the commons, central planning,
  slow growth, instability – nationalism, no real
  “European citizen”
EFSF Guarantees as % of Public Revenues –
Burden on Economy in Convergence Process
www.EuroKriza.sk
Juraj Karpiš
www.INESS.sk
karpis@iness.sk
Slovakia and eurcrisis _ba_23052012

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Slovakia and eurcrisis _ba_23052012

  • 1. Slovakia and the Eurocrisis Juraj Karpiš www.INESS.sk karpis@iness.sk
  • 4. Loans to Households and Nonfinancial Corporations as a % GDP 1998 vs. 2008
  • 5.
  • 6. Two Years Later after EFSF, EFSM, IMF, ECB Intervention
  • 7. Banks are Crucial in Europe
  • 8.
  • 10. Possible Scenarios  high economic growth, EU grows out of debt  dramatic increase in taxes, dramatic cuts in social benefits and pensions – debt repayment  defaults - Nordic €, decomposition of EMU? – New Deutsche Mark? SK in or out? Plan B?  inflation (Quantitative Easing or similar facility of buying bonds for new money produced by ECB, LTROs)  transfer union / fiscal centralization – “fiscal compact”, redistribution of wealth and losses among EU countries, ESM, moral hazard, tragedy of the commons, central planning, slow growth, instability – nationalism, no real “European citizen”
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. EFSF Guarantees as % of Public Revenues – Burden on Economy in Convergence Process

Editor's Notes

  1. vysvetli implicitnu garanciu severu, ecb ako spolocnu pastvinu, pravidla paktu stability a rastu nefungovali, ako ecb akceptuje dlhopisy krajiny, z nich sa potom stavaju de facto rezervy, a existuje dopyt zo strany KB. politici potom dlhopismy de facto tlacia peniaze.
  2. keď sa zamyslíme ako by sme zadefinovali zlyhanie eurovalu pri jeho zakladaní – nedospeli by sme k odpovedi ktora je identicka so sucasnou reliatou? Sirenie , taliansko ecb dlh riešime dlhom, ale problém sú deficity, tlak na ich znižovanie euroval odstraňuje
  3. Takto sme pre rokom a pol zacali. Skuste sa zamysliet, ako by ste tesne po zavedeni zadefinovali neuspech.vravelo sa ,treba upokojit situaciu. co sa vravi dnes? Co je podstatou problemu? Vydavky vyssie ako prijmy krajin. Krajiny su nesolventne, nie nelikvidne. Euroval tieto dlhy este viac zvysuje (napriek tomu, ze sa to vola zaruka) krizu zhorsuje a stahuje ostatne krajiny do priepasti.
  4. Nevyzerá neúspech presne takto?
  5. Nevyzerá neúspech presne takto?
  6. Nevyzerá neúspech presne takto?
  7. Nevyzerá neúspech presne takto?
  8. Slovenský podiel na nástroji je 0,824 %, čiže 5,83 miliardy, z toho hotovosť tvorí 659 miliárd eur. Platby sú rozdelené na viacero rokov. Slovensko bude musieť svoj podiel v novom eurovale zaplatiť v piatich splátkach, pričom celkovo počas piatich rokov zaplatí 659,2 mil. eur a celková výška akcií upísaných Slovenskom bude predstavovať sumu 5,768 mld. eur. (131,84 mil. eur/ročne)
  9. Slovenský podiel na nástroji je 0,824 %, čiže 5,83 miliardy, z toho hotovosť tvorí 659 miliárd eur. Platby sú rozdelené na viacero rokov. Slovensko bude musieť svoj podiel v novom eurovale zaplatiť v piatich splátkach, pričom celkovo počas piatich rokov zaplatí 659,2 mil. eur a celková výška akcií upísaných Slovenskom bude predstavovať sumu 5,768 mld. eur. (131,84 mil. eur/ročne)
  10. Slovensko by teda muselo zvýšiť dane dvakrát viac ako napríklad susedné Rakúsko. Čo by to spravilo s relatívnou príťažlivosťou Slovenska v očiach zahraničných investorov, ktorí sú hlavnými strojcami „ekonomického zázraku“ posledných rokov na Slovensku je zrejmé. Možno aj to je jeden z dôvodov, pre ktorý nás investori za členstvo v menovej únii v posledných mesiacoch trestajú.
  11. Základným princípom dohody teda je, že 200 miliárd eur z EFSF, ktoré sa doteraz zaviazali na poskytnutie pomoci Írsku, Portugalsku a Grécku sa dali bokom a v júli 2012 neprejdú do ESM, tak ako bol pôvodný zámer. Trvalý euroval teda začne s plnou kapacitou, hoci záchranné programy budú pokračovať. Nevyčerpaných 240 miliárd eur z EFSF bude slúžiť ako rezerva na zavolanie.  Maximálna efektívna úverová kapacita je stanovená na 500 miliárd eur, na jej dosiahnutie je potrebná 700-miliardová kapitálová základňa. Krajiny eurozóny v hotovosti zložia 80 miliárd eur, zvyšných 620 miliárd má formu kapitálu na požiadanie a garancií. Proporcia týchto nástrojov je flexibilná.