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Sustainable Transport Saves LivesChallenges and Opportunities for Urban India Darío Hidalgo, PhD Director of Research and Practice EMBARQ, The WRI Center forSustainableTransport Urban Mobility India Delhi, December 3-5 2010
Principles Most premature deaths are preventable and predictable Transport creates health risk factors at three levels: Emission of Air Pollutants Road Safety Physical Activity
Transport is related to 5 of the 12 leading causes of premature death and disability Source: WHO Global Burden of Disease project, 2002 	 DALY: Disability-adjusted life year. A health-gap measure that combines information on the number of years lost from premature death with the loss of health from disability
Transport sector traditional approaches do not help health, nor other aspects of sustainability 	Predict(auto traffic) and provide (road capacity) approach has resulted in auto dependency
Developing countries have the opportunity to follow a sustainable path through alternative transport solutions Guayaquil Sao Paulo Santiago Manila
http://www.embarq.org/en/india-transport-indicators
http://www.embarq.org/en/india-transport-indicators
Sustainable Transport ASI Framework
Sustainable Transport ASI Framework
Sustainable Transport ASI Framework
Sustainable Transport Reduces Risk Factors
Challenges for  ASI Sustainable Transport Population Growth Motorization Inertia of “business-as-usual” solutions Lack of Resources Financial Human Capital
Urbanization is happening quickly Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision
India urban population will surpass Latin America and the Caribbean by 2030 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007  Revision
Motorization grows with economic growth Nottothesamelevel in every country Source: Lee Schipper, University of California, Berkeley, 2009
Auto use is not correlated with economic growth Automobile Use and Regional Economy USA Regional Gross Product per Capita (US$ 1990) Europe Trend Automobile Use (km  per year per person) Source: INDICATORS OF TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IN 37 GLOBAL CITIES, Jeff Kenworthy, Felix Laube, Peter Newman and Paul Barte, Worrld Bank, 1997
Inertia of “BAU” TransportSolutions?
Building highways end result Congestion Urban Sprawl
More vehicle use  more air pollutant emissions Source: Observatorio Movilidad Urbana CAF  http://omu.caf.com/
More vehicle use  more accidents Cities of United States have 66% more deaths in traffic accidents per person than peer cities in Europe and Asia, and 123% more than Toronto (1990) Road Safety USA Road Traffic Deaths  per 100,000 population Europe Trend Automobile Use (km  per year per person) Fuente: INDICATORS OF TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IN 37 GLOBAL CITIES, Jeff Kenworthy, Felix Laube, Peter Newman and Paul Barte, Worrld Bank, 1997
US States (urban roads only) 2008 Source: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2008 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
German cities (2003 – 2006) Source: Eurostat, the European Commission’s Directorate General for Statistics, 2006 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Australian States and Territories (2009) Source: Australian Government, Department of Infrastructure and Transport, 2009 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
South African Provinces (2003) Source: Arrive Alive, a road safety database endorsed by the South African Government, 2003; Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Latin American Cities (2008) Source: Andean Development Corporation (CAF) 2010 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
VKT and fatalities over time (United States, 1990 – 2008) Traffic Fatalities 1990-2008:  792 860  VKT 1990: 37 km/person/day VKT 2008: 42 km/person/day Traffic Fatalities at VKT (1990) :721 753 (est.).  Lives that could have been saved 1990-2008 ~71 000 (9%) Source: US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2009 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Example of a neighborhood design that discourages physical activity: ,[object Object]
 single use
 poor connectivity
 auto orientedUrban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Increasing physical activity: Improving connectivity Source: Cervero, Robert , Sarmiento, Olga L. , Jacoby, Enrique , Gomez, Luis Fernando and Neiman, Andrea. 2009. Influences of Built Environments on Walking and Cycling: Lessons from Bogotá, International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 3: 4, 203 — 226 Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Increasing physical activity: 2.	Increasing density Source: Cervero, R., K. Kockelman. 1997. Travel Demand and the 3Ds: Density, Diversity and Design. Transportation Research Part D, vol.2 issue 3, pp. 199-219. Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Increasing physical activity: 2.	Increasing density Source: Cervero, R., K. Kockelman. 1997. Travel Demand and the 3Ds: Density, Diversity and Design. Transportation Research Part D, vol.2 issue 3, pp. 199-219.  Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Increasing physical activity: 3.	Mixed use, transit oriented development Sources: Rundle A, Roux A, Free L, Miller D, Neckerman K, Weiss C. 2007. The urban built environment and obesity in New York City: A multilevel analysis. American Journal of Health Promotion 24(4S):326–334. Cervero and Kockelman, op. cit.	 Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
Increasing physical activity: 4.	Provision of parks Sources: Gomez, L.F., D.C. Parra, D. Buchner, R.C. Brownson, O. Sarmiento, J.D. Pinzon, M. Ardilla, J. Moreno, M. Serrato, F. Lobelo. 2010. Built Environment Attributes and Walking Patterns Among the Elderly Population in Bogota. American Journal of Preventive Medicine; 38(6) pp. 592-599. Zlot, A.I., T. Schmid. 2005. Relationships Among Community Characteristics and Walking and Bicycling for Transportation or Recreation. American Journal of Health Promotion, March-April 2005, vol.19, no.4. Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ

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Sustainable Transport Saves Lives: Opportunities and Challenges for Urban India (Part 1)

  • 1. Sustainable Transport Saves LivesChallenges and Opportunities for Urban India Darío Hidalgo, PhD Director of Research and Practice EMBARQ, The WRI Center forSustainableTransport Urban Mobility India Delhi, December 3-5 2010
  • 2. Principles Most premature deaths are preventable and predictable Transport creates health risk factors at three levels: Emission of Air Pollutants Road Safety Physical Activity
  • 3. Transport is related to 5 of the 12 leading causes of premature death and disability Source: WHO Global Burden of Disease project, 2002 DALY: Disability-adjusted life year. A health-gap measure that combines information on the number of years lost from premature death with the loss of health from disability
  • 4. Transport sector traditional approaches do not help health, nor other aspects of sustainability Predict(auto traffic) and provide (road capacity) approach has resulted in auto dependency
  • 5. Developing countries have the opportunity to follow a sustainable path through alternative transport solutions Guayaquil Sao Paulo Santiago Manila
  • 12. Challenges for ASI Sustainable Transport Population Growth Motorization Inertia of “business-as-usual” solutions Lack of Resources Financial Human Capital
  • 13. Urbanization is happening quickly Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision
  • 14. India urban population will surpass Latin America and the Caribbean by 2030 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision
  • 15. Motorization grows with economic growth Nottothesamelevel in every country Source: Lee Schipper, University of California, Berkeley, 2009
  • 16. Auto use is not correlated with economic growth Automobile Use and Regional Economy USA Regional Gross Product per Capita (US$ 1990) Europe Trend Automobile Use (km per year per person) Source: INDICATORS OF TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IN 37 GLOBAL CITIES, Jeff Kenworthy, Felix Laube, Peter Newman and Paul Barte, Worrld Bank, 1997
  • 17. Inertia of “BAU” TransportSolutions?
  • 18. Building highways end result Congestion Urban Sprawl
  • 19. More vehicle use  more air pollutant emissions Source: Observatorio Movilidad Urbana CAF http://omu.caf.com/
  • 20. More vehicle use  more accidents Cities of United States have 66% more deaths in traffic accidents per person than peer cities in Europe and Asia, and 123% more than Toronto (1990) Road Safety USA Road Traffic Deaths per 100,000 population Europe Trend Automobile Use (km per year per person) Fuente: INDICATORS OF TRANSPORT EFFICIENCY IN 37 GLOBAL CITIES, Jeff Kenworthy, Felix Laube, Peter Newman and Paul Barte, Worrld Bank, 1997
  • 21. US States (urban roads only) 2008 Source: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2008 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 22. German cities (2003 – 2006) Source: Eurostat, the European Commission’s Directorate General for Statistics, 2006 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 23. Australian States and Territories (2009) Source: Australian Government, Department of Infrastructure and Transport, 2009 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 24. South African Provinces (2003) Source: Arrive Alive, a road safety database endorsed by the South African Government, 2003; Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 25. Latin American Cities (2008) Source: Andean Development Corporation (CAF) 2010 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 26. VKT and fatalities over time (United States, 1990 – 2008) Traffic Fatalities 1990-2008: 792 860 VKT 1990: 37 km/person/day VKT 2008: 42 km/person/day Traffic Fatalities at VKT (1990) :721 753 (est.). Lives that could have been saved 1990-2008 ~71 000 (9%) Source: US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2009 Analysis: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 27.
  • 30. auto orientedUrban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 31. Increasing physical activity: Improving connectivity Source: Cervero, Robert , Sarmiento, Olga L. , Jacoby, Enrique , Gomez, Luis Fernando and Neiman, Andrea. 2009. Influences of Built Environments on Walking and Cycling: Lessons from Bogotá, International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 3: 4, 203 — 226 Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 32. Increasing physical activity: 2. Increasing density Source: Cervero, R., K. Kockelman. 1997. Travel Demand and the 3Ds: Density, Diversity and Design. Transportation Research Part D, vol.2 issue 3, pp. 199-219. Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 33. Increasing physical activity: 2. Increasing density Source: Cervero, R., K. Kockelman. 1997. Travel Demand and the 3Ds: Density, Diversity and Design. Transportation Research Part D, vol.2 issue 3, pp. 199-219. Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 34. Increasing physical activity: 3. Mixed use, transit oriented development Sources: Rundle A, Roux A, Free L, Miller D, Neckerman K, Weiss C. 2007. The urban built environment and obesity in New York City: A multilevel analysis. American Journal of Health Promotion 24(4S):326–334. Cervero and Kockelman, op. cit. Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 35. Increasing physical activity: 4. Provision of parks Sources: Gomez, L.F., D.C. Parra, D. Buchner, R.C. Brownson, O. Sarmiento, J.D. Pinzon, M. Ardilla, J. Moreno, M. Serrato, F. Lobelo. 2010. Built Environment Attributes and Walking Patterns Among the Elderly Population in Bogota. American Journal of Preventive Medicine; 38(6) pp. 592-599. Zlot, A.I., T. Schmid. 2005. Relationships Among Community Characteristics and Walking and Bicycling for Transportation or Recreation. American Journal of Health Promotion, March-April 2005, vol.19, no.4. Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 36. Increasing physical activity: 5. Safe, multi-modal streets, with priority for non motorized modes (increased capacity for people) Sources: Lopez, R. 2004. Urban Sprawl and Risk for Being Overweight and Obese. American Journal of Public Health, September 2004, vol. 94, no.9 Viola, R., M. Roe, H, Shin. 2010. The New York City Pedestrian Safety Study and Action Plan. New York City Department of Transportation: August 2010, p. A12. Cervero, R., K. Kockelman. 1997. Travel Demand and the 3Ds: Density, Diversity and Design. Transportation Research Part D, vol.2 issue 3, pp. 199-219. Urban design and rendering: Nicolae Duduta, EMBARQ
  • 37. Key Messages Challenge is large: urban and motor vehicle growth, strong barriers: financial, physical, institutional, cultural Predict-and-provide approach is not sustainable Avoind-shift-improve through active and public transport, demand management, integrated urban development High impact, fast implementation, low cost, structural change Excellent examples in developing and developed countries Requires political leadership to change of paradigms: people first not the motor vehicles

Editor's Notes

  1. Studies in New York and Mexico (Viola et al. 2010, EMBARQ Analysis) have shown that cars and public transit vehicles account for over 93% of all fatal accidents in cities. Therefore, if car and transit VKT were both equal to zero, one should expect fatalities to be at or near zero as well. This suggested that a regression through the origin would be appropriate in this case. We do not report R2 for a regression through the origin, as it is artificially inflated, and therefore not a useful statistic.