demography and development

1. Bamidele Olufemi Ifenowo
Department of Business Administration
The Federal Polytechnic Ilaro, Ogun State.

2.  Evidence abound in the literature about
population-environment nexus. The direct
interplay of human population dynamics
and environmental change has been a
perennial source of discourse by writers and
scholars alike.
 The argument is frequently voiced that
“population” – i.e. aggregate human
population growth – has a substantial (and
adverse) effect on environmental quality.
 .

3.  Every human society especially from the onset
of the 21st century has concerned itself with the
issue of environmental sustainability.
 The term “sustainable development” has been
used to denote economic, social, and
environmental dimensions of our future survival
(WCED, 1987).

4.  Our focus in this presentation is on environmental
sustainability and it relates to unchecked
population growth in a mega city.
 There is continuing concern about nature
fragmentation, environmental degradation and
loss of biodiversity, as a result of mass
consumption brought about by unchecked
population growth especially in our cities.

5.  It is our assumption that for any developmental
project to have a significant impact on the people
of Lagos, the government must make concerted
effort to address a hitherto neglected factor which
determines the success or failure of most of its
programmes, namely the population dynamics.
 This study sets out to add its voice in
underscoring the danger that an unchecked
population growth poses to one of the
Millennium Development Goals which is
environmental sustainability.

6.  This is a non-empirical study based mainly on available
and relevant past studies and data. Existing secondary
research information which includes material published
in research reports and similar documents were utilised.
These documents were sourced from public libraries,
newspapers, websites, data obtained from previous
surveys and from government and non-governmental
agencies. The data were harvested, collated, summarized
and presented to lend credence to the issue under
discussion.

7.  In designing and implementing their various
development agenda, successive administration in
Lagos State have failed to understand and account
for the demographic changes that are unfolding
over the past two and half decades and how such
changes could hinder the achievement of the
sustainable development goals.

8.  There is a growing evidence that population
growth, combined with a higher level of
consumption have resulted in changing
patterns of land use, increased energy use
and the depletion of natural resources, with
signs of climate change and environmental
degradation more visible than ever before.

9.  Furthermore, higher population density,
associated with urbanization, brought about by
such dynamics as rural-urban migration, decline
in mortality and increase in fertility which alters
the age structure of the population in ways that,
at various stages of the demographic transition,
may prove to be either a boost or an additional
challenge to the achievement of inclusive and
sustainable development.

10. City 196
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2015 2020
Abuja 23 29 48 77 125 204 330 526 832 131
5
157
6
1994 2558 2971
Benin City 83 113 163 233 335 480 689 845 975 112
4
119
0
1302 1520 1755
Ibadan 510 668 809 980 118
6
143
6
173
9
199
3
223
6
250
9
262
8
2835 3270 3752
Ilorin 179 222 268 323 389 457 515 580 653 735 771 835 970 1123
Kaduna 99 173 266 408 628 853 961 108
3
122
0
137
5
144
2
1560 1807 2083
Kano 229 343 542 855 135
0
186
1
209
5
236
0
265
8
299
3
314
0
3393 3914 4487
Lagos 762 1135 1414 1890 2572 3500 4764 5966 7233 8767 9466 10572 12403 14134
Maiduguri 105 156 216 300 416 531 598 673 758 854 896 969 1125 1301
Ogbomos
ho
247 333 378 428 485 549 622 704 798 904 951 1031 1199 1386
Port
Harcourt
135 198 266 358 482 604 680 766 863 972 102
0
1104 1280 1479
Table I:
Nigerian Cities with population of 750,000 or more in 2007 (in Thousands) 1960-2020.Projected to 2020.

12. Problems Lagos(Nigeria) Hong
Kong(China)
Tokyo(Japan) Istanbul(Turkey) London(UK) Seoul(South
Korea)
New
York(USA)
Informal
Settlements
3 0 1 1 0 0 0
Traffic
Management
3 2 1 1 1 1 0
Natural Hazards 3 0 1 1 1 1 1
Unclear
responsibilities
and Mandates
3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Uncoordinated
planning
3 0 0 0 0 - 0
Water
Management
3 2 1 1 0 0 0
Provision of
continuous
electric power
3 0 1 0 0 0 0
Visual pollution
and garbage
disposal
3 2 1 0 0 0 1
Air and water
pollution control
3 2 1 0 1 1 1
Population
Growth
3 - - 1 1 - -
Weighted score 30/30
100%
8/27
29.6%
7/27
25.9%
5/30
16.7%
%/30
13.3%
3/24
12.5%
3/27
11%
Ranking based
on magnitude of
problem
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Table II: SELECTED WORLD MEGA CITIES AND LEVEL OF THEIR CHALLENGES

13.  In order to bring back the population agenda
into the sustainable development discussion,
there is a need to recognize that:
 Population dynamics have a significant
influence on sustainable development;
 Efforts to promote sustainable development
that do not address population dynamics
have, and will continue to, fail; and,
 Population dynamics are not destiny.

14.  Lagos’ problems are compounded by the fact
that “while yearly budgets of other cities with
similar megacity status such as New York and
Sao Paulo are relatively large, with 2013
budgets of $70 billion and $89 billion, Lagos
only has an annual budget of about $3 billion

15.  .”Large number of undocumented immigrants
makes identifying criminals difficult. The
presence of large, desperate and unskilled
body of migrants that are predominantly
averse to public order, especially if it restricts
their economic activity such as Okada riding
and street trading impacts negatively on
security and the environment in general.

16. There are many effects of uncurbed population on environmental degradation,
which the world is contending with today:
 Air polution and impact on human health
 Loss of Biodiversity, which is important for maintaining balance of the
ecosystem .
 Ozone Layer Depletion is also another side effect of environmental
degradation.
 The tourism industry equally suffers from environmental degradation as
deterioration of environment can be a huge setback for tourism industry.
 Noise pollution (or environmental noise) is the displeasing human, animal, or
machine-created sound that disrupts the activity or balance of human life.
 Other challenges of urban mobility are longer hours spent on commuting;
inadequate public transport and environmental impacts and energy
consumption

20.  According to UN Habitat report, Lagos has about 100 slums as at
2004. One could imagine what the number would be by now:
 The poor living condition and lifestyle of majority of Lagosians can
be attributable to poverty and the quest for economic survival.
 The high level of environmental degradation in Lagos brought about
mainly by its teeming population is negating the concept of
sustainable development.
 However, the lifestyle of Lagos inhabitants can be improved to
achieve the Millennium Development Goals through enhanced
poverty management and sustainable environmental principles
through population control.

21.  With an estimated population(according to LASG) of
nearly 24 million – and counting, it is apparent that
Lagos cannot handle the environmental challenges
on its own. But one approach which this study has
identified as a lasting solution is for the state to start
thinking about curbing population growth through
fertility control and immigration. There is no law yet
in Nigeria restricting movement across the country
but the state government can collaborate with feeder
states to evolve a way of involving their youths in
productive ventures to reduce their nuisance factor

22.  It is with a view to bringing up a more dynamic and holistic
approach to environmental protection that this study has come
up with the following recommendations.
 The Lagos state government should champion the adoption of a
national population policy. This could be done through the
sponsorship by one of the Parliamentarians from Lagos( backed
by the Speaker who incidentally is a Lagosian) of a bill to that
effect. This would amount to tackling the problem at the macro
level which is expected to rub positively in the long run on Lagos
State.
 The need to work in concert with ‘feeder’ states to control
parasitic form of migration is also advocated. By parasitic
migration, is meant the type that adds no value to the economy
and wellbeing of the state as well as discourage street beggars
and urchins.

23.  The Lagos State government will do well to initiate ward to ward
and street to street fertility control enlightenment programmes.
This can be done in collaboration with International bodies like
United National Fund for Population Activities(UNFPA) as well as
Planned Parenthood federation of Nigeria(PPFN).
 The state ministry of environment primary’s focus is to map out
sustainable and economically viable methods to dispose of waste.
These plans have come under an initiative tagged ‘THE CLEANER
LAGOS INITIATIVE’ (CLI). The “Cleaner Lagos Initiative aims to
protect the environment, human health and social living standards
of Lagos residents by promoting a harmonized and holistic
approach to the challenges thereby ensuring improved operational
efficiency. The Cleaner Lagos Initiative should be embarked upon
with more vigour.The government should quit politicisation
currently plaguing the cleaning of the environment and reduction
of environmental degradation.

24. Thank you all for listening