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Reducing Uncertainty in Structural Safety
Special Session SS6
Ghent, Belgium
28-31 October 2018
Outline
Introduction
Offshore wind Turbine systems
Stress-cycle (SN) fatigue assessment
Meta-modelling of SN fatigue
Search function
Results and application on a reliability analysis framework
Introduction
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for different sources of renewable
energy divided by region. Source : IRENA 2017 report.
The demand for renewable
energy is unquestionable.
Innovation in the practices to
design and operate Offshore
Wind Turbines has been the
main key driver to enhance
competiveness (IRENA, 2017).
Research along with regulatory
framework are expected to be
the main enablers of OWT
development up to 2050.
Scale-up, where the increase of
the tower component height
has been a major driver of
competiveness for OWTs.
Ref: IRENA. Renewable power generation costs in 2017. Technical report, International Renewable Energy Agency, 2017.
Offshore wind turbine systems
OWT fatigue design
IEC61400 and DNV
guidelines.
Run multiple time domain
simulations at operational
states and count stresses and
cycles using counting
algorithm (e.g. rainflow
counting)
Plus SN curve and:
Meta-modelling of SN fatigue
Gaussian process regression models, or Kriging models, have seen an
increase in its application to structural problems.
Polynomial Component :
is Gaussian process with mean 0 and covariance .
.
Define a surrogate of short-
term SN damage:
LHS DoE Approximation
Common approach in literature works.
Not consistent.
Learning criteria
Kriging enables notion of
improvement.
Relation to the physical
problem of fatigue.
Learning criteria.
Comparison with standard methodology
Robust even
when only the
corner of the
space were
given.
Convergence to
the 1 year
prediction.
Comparison with standard methodology
Compare with the traditional binning of data.
Reduction of computational time up to 80% without compromising accuracy.
Reduction never inferior to 50% for all the cases studied.
SN slopes of 3, 5 and double 3 and 5.
Application for reliability analysis
Allows to define multiple
design surfaces. Each one
replicates the IEC design
assessment.
Distribution of design SN
fatigue based on the
uncertainty of the design
reliability considerations.
Use the noise component:
Conclusions
A meta-modelling technique was successfully implemented in order to
reduce the computational time of the fatigue design for OWT analysis. It
uses a Gaussian process predictor to surrogate the stress-cycle fatigue
damage from different operational states.
It was applied to the tower component, but the same methodology can be
extended to any other component.
The meta-model probabilistic behaviour was of interest to define a
In a reliability analysis framework, the main interest is of the surrogate
approach presented is the reduction of computational time that may
enable reliability based optimization procedures, which challenging to
apply for SN fatigue analysis due to their cost.
The TRUSS ITN project (http://trussitn.eu) has
received funding from the European
Horizon 2020 research and innovation
programme under the Marie -Curie
grant agreement No. 642453

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"Surrogate infill criteria for operational fatigue reliability analysis" presented at IALCCE2018 by Rui Teixeira

  • 1. Reducing Uncertainty in Structural Safety Special Session SS6 Ghent, Belgium 28-31 October 2018
  • 2.
  • 3. Outline Introduction Offshore wind Turbine systems Stress-cycle (SN) fatigue assessment Meta-modelling of SN fatigue Search function Results and application on a reliability analysis framework
  • 4. Introduction Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for different sources of renewable energy divided by region. Source : IRENA 2017 report. The demand for renewable energy is unquestionable. Innovation in the practices to design and operate Offshore Wind Turbines has been the main key driver to enhance competiveness (IRENA, 2017). Research along with regulatory framework are expected to be the main enablers of OWT development up to 2050. Scale-up, where the increase of the tower component height has been a major driver of competiveness for OWTs. Ref: IRENA. Renewable power generation costs in 2017. Technical report, International Renewable Energy Agency, 2017.
  • 6. OWT fatigue design IEC61400 and DNV guidelines. Run multiple time domain simulations at operational states and count stresses and cycles using counting algorithm (e.g. rainflow counting) Plus SN curve and:
  • 7. Meta-modelling of SN fatigue Gaussian process regression models, or Kriging models, have seen an increase in its application to structural problems. Polynomial Component : is Gaussian process with mean 0 and covariance . . Define a surrogate of short- term SN damage:
  • 8. LHS DoE Approximation Common approach in literature works. Not consistent.
  • 9. Learning criteria Kriging enables notion of improvement. Relation to the physical problem of fatigue. Learning criteria.
  • 10. Comparison with standard methodology Robust even when only the corner of the space were given. Convergence to the 1 year prediction.
  • 11. Comparison with standard methodology Compare with the traditional binning of data. Reduction of computational time up to 80% without compromising accuracy. Reduction never inferior to 50% for all the cases studied. SN slopes of 3, 5 and double 3 and 5.
  • 12. Application for reliability analysis Allows to define multiple design surfaces. Each one replicates the IEC design assessment. Distribution of design SN fatigue based on the uncertainty of the design reliability considerations. Use the noise component:
  • 13. Conclusions A meta-modelling technique was successfully implemented in order to reduce the computational time of the fatigue design for OWT analysis. It uses a Gaussian process predictor to surrogate the stress-cycle fatigue damage from different operational states. It was applied to the tower component, but the same methodology can be extended to any other component. The meta-model probabilistic behaviour was of interest to define a In a reliability analysis framework, the main interest is of the surrogate approach presented is the reduction of computational time that may enable reliability based optimization procedures, which challenging to apply for SN fatigue analysis due to their cost.
  • 14. The TRUSS ITN project (http://trussitn.eu) has received funding from the European Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie -Curie grant agreement No. 642453