This document provides an overview and analysis of Canada's surplus/deficit for fiscal year 2016-2017. It includes an introduction and biography of the author Paul Young, an agenda outlining the topics to be covered, and multiple sections discussing Canada's surplus/deficit numbers, comparing these numbers to GDP growth, and rebutting various positions on surpluses and deficits. The document utilizes data from the Government of Canada and provides external links to additional sources and analyses on economic indicators and political debate around fiscal policy in Canada.

1. SURPLUS (DEFICIT) -
CANADA - FY 2016-2017
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
SEPTEMBER 19, 2017

2. DISCLAIMER
• This presentation is on view of the middle class and the economy and should not be deemed the only
source

3. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

4. AGENDA
• Surplus(Deficit)
• Budget and Actual
• GDP Growth and Surplus (Deficits)
• Rebuttals on Surplus/(Deficits)

5. CANADA SURPLUS(DEFICIT)
• Source – Government of Canada

6. CANADA SURPLUS(DEFICIT)
• Source – Government of Canada

7. SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) AND GDP GROWTH
• Source – Government of Canada

8. REBUTTAL #1 – SURPLUS/(DEFICITS)
http://globalnews.ca/news/3739447/liberals-deficit-path-bill-
morneau/?utm_source=GlobalNews&utm_medium=Facebook
I am not surprised with this comment as the Liberals expenses are growing about 2x times faster than the
growth of GDP. Here is my surplus/deficit calculation - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
cpc-and-liberals-surplus-debate. Yet if Harper did the same thing in terms of spending and deficits then
the left would have crucified him. So, why does PM Selfie get a free pass?
Secondly, the economy is projected to grow at slower rate in 2018 and beyond, why? Federal government
is pushing national carbon tax starting in 2018. The carbon tax will take money out of the economy -
http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/ottawas-carbon-tax-plan-to-shrink-economy-by-
3-billion-hurt-loonie-in-2018-study. The adjustment is small, but it was shave a point or two off GDP.
Canada is also seeing correction in areas like manufacturing, construction, energy and utility sector.
Thirdly, GDP is project to drop back down to 1.9% to 2.2 range
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-outlook-canada-and-the-world-september-8-2017 - see
slide 3 which shows you that Trudeau growth is same Harper was achieving post 2008-2009 recession.

9. REBUTTAL#2 – SURPLUS (DEFICIT)
• Fact 1 - http://www.newsoptimist.ca/opinion/columnists/liberals-and-ndp-called-for-deficit-backed-stimulus-spending-now-some-forget-that-fact-
1.1742742 - Who called for the deficit spending?
• Fact 2 – Canada’s economy is not entirely oil, but other areas as well. The global recession impacted many areas of the economy, especially demand. USA
GDP growth rate did not pass Canada until 2012 .https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543, why? USA GDP fell much farther than Canada as it
was hurt harder with wage stagnation, housing market collapse, etc.
• Fact 3 – Retail sales drive the economy harper gave back moneys to support retail spending as well as encourage people to save money -
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad15a-eng.htm or http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/tfsa/exclusive-
canadians-maxing-out-their-tfsas-from-all-walks-of-life. People have argued Harper’s approach did not work. Yet, the actual data showed Harper did a
decent job under the circumstances. Don’t take my word, but watch this video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOl37VcG89c&t=107s
• Fact 4 – Where are you getting $140/Barrel? I do not see that number anywhere? Did you make it up, because you are angry that I call you out?
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp. FYI – Oil prices impacted the economy, especially fuel sur charges, but I
guess you missed that memo. Secondly, Canada economy is only 2% oil as it is diversified with areas like transportation equipment, food processing, etc. I
guess stats are not your specialty, right? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sales-and-trends-canada-december-2016 (FYI - I pulled
my data from many sites, but you never look at the details, right?)
• Fact 5 – It is not one policy that drives the economic conditions in Canada. I guess since you are expert that you figure that out, right?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-policies-and-market-analysis-for-manufacturing-in-canada. You do not have to take my word, but
maybe you should google what the private sector has said about Harper - http://mb.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=XE8MT-GCZX2-
KAD9G&comaction=show&cid=3CWP8-FKASM-JYNFE. Harper cannot control provinces that introduced bad policies -
https://www.blazingcatfur.ca/2015/04/30/trudeau-advisor-gerald-butts-green-energy-policies-cost-ontario-300000-jobs-admits-liberal-think-tank/ . You do
not have to take my word, but you can see what Chrysler said http://news.nationalpost.com/news/82405 - FYI - many of the automotive investment are
going into equipment which means keeping existing workers in many cases, but adding more robotic equipment as well as other automation equipment.
You do not have to take my word, but you should read what Honda said “http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/honda-canada-ontario-alliston-1.3927685”
• Fact 6 – Exports
• Canada depends on exports. Canada has a population of 36M as such depends on exports to support its economy. I guess you never looked at the work
Harper did to expand trade/business, right? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-trade-canada
•

10. REBUTTAL#3 – SURPLUS (DEFICIT)
• Justin Trudeau said "$22B deficit has $18B funding gap left by the CPC" - http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-trudeau-blames-opposition-for-electoral-reform-
failure-budget-deficit-1.3478395?autoPlay=true
• I have crunch the numbers as such Trudeau continues to mislead Canadians. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/justin-trudeau-cpc-deficit-june-2017
• There was $1B deficit in 2015-2016 which bulk of that deficit had to do with unfunded spending like $365M for the refugees (Syria) and tax cut. The tax cut likely cost
the treasury about 700M for the five months the liberals where in office. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-tax-changes-to-cost-federal-
treasury-12-billion-per-year/article27636179/
• LPC – Mandate - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/justin-trudeau-government-mandate-analysis-and-commentary-march-2017
• I love Trudeau trying to spin his spending as CPC problem when it is his problem.
• More blunders:
• Trudeau admiring China - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8wQrM5jTWc
• Trudeau and North Korea - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkSIdKMd9vE
• Trudeau / Budget Balance itself - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9bQcIQd51I
• Trudeau / Middle Class - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNgcA4DBGOs&t=101s
• Trudeau / C42 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A-J_aN5uto
• Trudeau / Floods - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeON1-b2N-4
• Trudeau / Castro - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-sFLRr0NWM
• Trudeau/Hamas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvDcmf-2lkM
• Trudeau/Elows MP - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFzdBdXLAq0
• Trudeau/Scotland - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ou3f68PDL10
•

11. REBUTTAL#5 – SURPLUS (DEFICIT)
• Headline - Canada will not meet UN goal for foreign aid - Foreign aid Quote “ - Trudeau told the newspaper the UN
target is too ambitious for this year and “probably” for next year as well. “We look towards increasing the benefits and
outcomes around the world, creating opportunities for everyone. But we just know that throwing buckets of money
indiscriminately at a problem isn’t necessarily the best solution.” – Source -
http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2016/05/10/canada-will-not-meet-un-goal-for-foreign-aid/
• Headline – Carbon Tax/Canada –“
• Wall is right when he warns that Canadian companies could be in a tough spot if they’re paying a carbon tax while their
competitors across the border are not. It’s possible to leave loopholes in carbon pricing for certain industries (there are
already big ones for agriculture), but how effective is a system full of loopholes? Source -
https://ipolitics.ca/2016/12/10/trudeau-convinces-premiers-on-carbon-deal-but-he-cant-convince-trump/
• Headline – Truth about Trudeau’s Refugee Budget numbers ” The initiative did not cost taxpayers $100 million, as
Trudeau had once promised. Instead, the Trudeau government spent $384.7 million on the program. They spent nearly
four times as much as they said they would.” Source - http://www.torontosun.com/2016/11/25/the-truth-about-
trudeaus-refugee-budget-numbers
•