Canada's merchandise trade is significant, ranging from $550b to $570b, constituting about 25% of GDP, yet trade deficits persist, with the government not significantly enhancing middle-class job opportunities. There are ongoing challenges in getting Canadian goods to market, including issues with pipeline construction and regulatory environments, which are impacting the natural resources and manufacturing sectors. The current administration's trade policies are scrutinized for prioritizing raw materials over diversified export growth, leading to reduced investments and competitiveness.

1. MERCHANDISE
TRADE – CANADA –
APRIL 2018
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
JUNE 6, 2018

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. SUMMARY
Merchandise trade for Canada is over $550B to $570B which is
about 25% of GDP
Canada needs trade deals, but fair trade to ensure jobs are not
loss in sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, etc.
Trudeau ran on a campaign to get goods to market and yet
cannot get one pipeline built.
Trudeau talks about middle class yet goods producing jobs have
decreases as % of total jobs since Trudeau took office in 2015
Clean technology companies continue to grow, but not their
profitability
Trudeau trade is geared to raw materials as about 56% of the
total exports

4. TWEET – TRADE – FEBRUARY 2017
• Liberals have been running trade deficits between 23B to 27B. Part of the reason the deficits are low
that Harper’s is to do with the rebound in oil pricing and production
• March 2018 seen a rise in imports. The trade deficit could be $35B-40B for 2018
• Liberals are not expanding middle class jobs in the export sector. There is less people working in goods
producing sector as % of total jobs than when the Liberals took office in 2015
• Banks along with Corporations have been looking elsewhere to invest -
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/investment-outflow-from-canada-already-underway-
in-real-time-rbc-head

5. AGENDA
• Merchandise Trade by month
(Exports vs Imports)
• Merchandise imbalance by sector
• Merchandise imbalance by key
countries
• Kinder Morgan
• China and Imports
• NAFTA
• Natural Gas/LNG
• Oil/Energy

6. MERCHANDISE
TRADE BY
PERIOD
SOURCE -
HTTPS://WWW150.STATCAN.GC.CA/N1/DAILY-
QUOTIDIEN/180606/DQ180606A-ENG.HTM

7. 2018 VS 2015 – EXPORTS/CANADA
Source – Stats Canada
• Automotive Sector has seen a
dropped in exports
• Liberals focus on carbon tax, more
regulations, higher corporate taxes is
pushing FDI to other jurisdictions -
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/econ
omics/video/kevin-o-leary-direct-
investment-in-canada-is-collapsing-
and-fast~1363019
• Aerospace has seen a drop in Exports
• Trudeau said Harper focus to much
on oil
• Energy exports 3% higher due
higher prices and a rebound in
production

8. LPC VS CPC
Source – Stats Canada
“Stephen Harper’s approach to trade, however, has failed. His
Conservative government has recorded the largest trade deficit in
Canadian history, and Canadians are paying the price in lost job
opportunities.” https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/getting-
canadian-goods-to-market/
• Liberals in three years loss 10K in
natural resources jobs
• Canada is not getting goods to
Market
• GDP is now averaging 2.1% as
compare to 2.3% post recession
• Oil prices have rebounded by 40%
since 2015.

9. NATURAL RESOURCES VS NON-NATURAL
RESOURCES
SURPLUS/(DEFICITS)
• “Trudeau sought to use his keynote address today entitled
“The Canadian Opportunity” — delivered hours after a
session called “Canada’s global pivot” — to differentiate
himself from former prime minister Stephen Harper, who
often used the meeting to tout Canada as a resource
powerhouse. Trudeau said Canada’s natural resources
remain an important part of the economy — even as a
slide in oil prices delivers an economic punch to resource-
rich provinces like Alberta. But he said the country’s
growth doesn’t depend on what lies underground.
• “My predecessor wanted you to know Canada for its
resources. I want you to know Canadians for our
resourcefulness,” he said.
• Source - http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/what-
justin-trudeau-plans-to-tell-davos/
Comments:
• Canada is a Natural Resource country
• Canada has a diversify economy including manufacturing,
construction, agriculture, etc.
• Clean Technology companies continue to lose money -
https://www.bnn.ca/awash-in-red-ink-canadian-clean-
tech-struggling-despite-ottawa-s-green-goals-1.729679
• New regulation and New Taxes do not support FDI as
companies will go elsewhere to maximised their ROI -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/competitiven
ess-canada-vs-other-countries-january-2018
Source - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180307/dq180307a-eng.htm

10. MERCHANDISE TRADE BY KEY COUNTRIES
Source - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180206/dq180206a-eng.htm
Trudeau has threaten to leave NAFTA:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/
trudeau-threatens-to-leave-nafta-rather-than-
take-any-old-deal
Issues:
1. Leaving NAFTA could shave points of GDP -
http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/scpt/gbm/s
cotiaeconomics63/2018-02-02_I&V.pdf
2. Trudeau has never dealt with the Mexico
trade deficit.
3. Canada has $65B deficit with the rest of the
world. Trudeau talks about getting goods to
market, but cannot even get Kinder Morgan
built - Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyo
ungcga/2015-election-promise-
liberal-party-of-canada-goods-to-
market-canada-january-2018
4.

11. PIPELINES – NATURAL GAS
• Enbridge selling Assets -
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/en
bridge-looking-to-sell-2-billion-in-western-
canadian-gas-assets
• Climate Change Activists and the Canadian
government regulatory processes are causing
risk to development of LNG projects in
Canada -
https://biv.com/article/2018/04/will-lng-
canada-fit-bcs-climate-change-box
Goods producing sector continues face
obstacles under the Liberal Government
https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/getting-
canadian-goods-to-market/

12. OIL / ENERGY SECTOR
Source – BMO and BakerHughes
• Canada’s competitiveness is being hinder by policies (i.e. high hydro rates, carbon tax, hikes to cpp,
complicated regulatory process, etc. - http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/lack-of-
canadian-tax-competitiveness-discourages-even-renewable-energy

13. COMPETITIVENESS
• https://globalnews.ca/news/4117054/rbc-head-
canada-government-investment-
us/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twi
tter ““Let me say if that’s the perception, I regret
that perception. That’s certainly not what we’re
trying to achieve,” Morneau said in an interview
Thursday with BNN’s Amanda Lang, when asked
about criticisms that the Liberals have displayed anti-
business rhetoric and targeted wealthy Canadians.”
• You introduce more taxes and more regulations then
expect business will invest, right?
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/competiti
veness-canada-vs-other-countries-february-2018
•
• https://www.bnn.ca/i-regret-that-perception-that-
liberals-are-anti-business-morneau-1.1015819
Tweet – Morneau and Fluff Responses – GDP and Jobs
Really? Are your feelings hurt? CPC demand answer not fluff responses from
Morneau that do not tie back to real numbers. Morneau is living on Jan 17 to
June 17 numbers. The current trajectory show Canada is headed for big problems.
https://www.bnn.ca/canadian-growth-falls-short-of-expectations-in-q4-
1.1015676 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/liberal-party-of-canada-
and-pm-trudeau-fiscal-and-economic-scorecard-2017
https://twitter.com/CBCPolitics/status/978598228944924672

14. BLOG – GOODS TO MARKET
https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/getting-canadian-
goods-to-market/
“Trade is vital for our economy. It opens
markets, grows Canadian businesses, and
creates good-paying middle class jobs – jobs
that pay wages that are 50 percent higher
than industries that are not export intensive.
That is good news for the middle class and
the communities they call home.
Stephen Harper’s approach to trade,
however, has failed. His Conservative
government has recorded the largest trade
deficit in Canadian history, and Canadians
are paying the price in lost job opportunities.
While Stephen Harper may sign trade deals,
he walks away from partnering with
businesses and entrepreneurs to ensure they
can succeed in new markets and create
wealth and jobs for Canadians.
1. Drillers are moving capital to USA as the USA is open more for business than Canada -
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/operations/exodus-canadian-drillers-move-rigs-
south-chase-better-prospects-texas-207499/
2. Approving and Building pipelines are two different events -
https://globalnews.ca/news/3996008/bc-government-strike-another-blow-to-stop-kinder-
morgan-pipeline-expansion/
3. Trade Wars with the USA - http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/forget-nafta-the-
trade-war-with-canada-has-already-started
4. No Software lumber deal despite having two years to get a deal done -
https://ipolitics.ca/2018/01/29/give-us-softwood-deal-well-drop-wto-case-canada-tells-u-s/
5. Lack of capital investment into Ports/Rail lines - https://globalnews.ca/news/3987860/port-of-
hamilton-sees-record-year-for-agricultural-shipments/. Hamilton had a great year, but that
was due to investments made by previous governments
6. More goods like oil are moving by rail. Rail is much more dangerous to transport oil than
pipelines - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180131/dq180131c-eng.htm
7. Manufacturing continues to struggle with high hydro rates, more regulations and more taxes –
The only reason that growth was increased in November 2017 was due to lumber, petroleum
and metal fabrication production being up.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-canada-november-2017
8. Trump continues to move to low tax and low regulation as compare to Trudeau that force
carbon taxation, hikes to CPP, small business tax reforms and more regulations -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/competitiveness-canada-vs-other-countries-
january-2018
9. Canadian Manufacturing Association also said Harper’s policy were right in terms of
supporting manufacturing through innovation funds, tax policies, trade policies, etc.
http://mb.cme-mec.ca/?lid=YXN82-W3NF7-IC132&comaction=show&cid=3CWP8-FKASM-
JYNFE
10. Your so called economic team is made up liberal party supporters as such is weak.
https://www.liberal.ca/liberals-unveil-membership-of-economic-council-of-advisors/

15. KINDER MORGAN
• There has been nastiness from both sides which needs to stop. Central government
led by the Liberals should be brokering a deal. I think if you want to get Horgan
aboard then it will be compensation like child care -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-looks-to-
federal-government-to-help-fund-childcare-plan/article37012357/
• CEO / Kinder Morgan -
• The green Party also said they will not support Kinder Morgan -
https://www.bnn.ca/video/trans-mountain-expansion-will-not-see-light-of-day-b-c-
green-party-leader~1180999
•
• Oil pipelines are costing the Canadian Economy over 10B year in loss GDP -
https://globalnews.ca/news/4036046/pipeline-constraints-to-cost-canadian-
economy-10-7b-in-2018-scotiabank/
• The U.S.-based CEO and president, Stephen Kean, said all non-essential work and
spending on the pipeline expansion will stop. If construction guarantees can’t be
secured by May 31, he added, “it is difficult to conceive of any scenario in which we
would proceed with the project.” -
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/braid-as-kinder-morgan-wobbles-
alberta-might-buy-a-stake