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Senegal: Impacts of COVID-19 on Production, Poverty and Food Systems

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Senegal
Impacts of COVID-19 on Production,
Poverty & Food Systems
Cheickh Sadibou Fall1, Karl Pauw2,Josée Randriamamonjy2 ...

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Updated: Dec. 2, 2020
Lockdown Imposes Heavy Economic Costs
• National GDP is estimated to fall by
20% during the 4-week l...

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Updated: Dec. 2, 2020
Costs Likely to Persist Throughout 2020
• Economy is reopening & some
restrictions are eased
• But e...

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Senegal: Impacts of COVID-19 on Production, Poverty and Food Systems

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By Cheickh Sadibou Fall, Karl Pauw, Josée Randriamamonjy and James Thurlow

By Cheickh Sadibou Fall, Karl Pauw, Josée Randriamamonjy and James Thurlow

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Senegal: Impacts of COVID-19 on Production, Poverty and Food Systems

  1. 1. Senegal Impacts of COVID-19 on Production, Poverty & Food Systems Cheickh Sadibou Fall1, Karl Pauw2,Josée Randriamamonjy2 and James Thurlow2 1 Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles 2 International Food Policy Research Institute Updated: 2 December 2020 Contact: Josée Randriamamonjy (J.Randriamamonjy@cgiar.org) Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this slide deck are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ institutions. Financial support from
  2. 2. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Lockdown Imposes Heavy Economic Costs • National GDP is estimated to fall by 20% during the 4-week lockdown (US$ 371 mil. in lost GDP) • Food system is adversely affected by falling consumer & export demand (17% agri-food GDP decline, despite exemptions) • Poverty rate increases by 15 percentage points during the lockdown (2.4 million more people temporarily living below the national poverty line) Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Economic impacts during 4-week lockdown period 20.3 16.5 15.0 Percentage decline in national GDP Percentage decline in agri-food system GDP Percentage point increase in national poverty rate 3.7 2.4 Decline in national GDP in US$ 100 millions Increase in number of poor people in millions
  3. 3. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Costs Likely to Persist Throughout 2020 • Economy is reopening & some restrictions are eased • But economic losses remain, even with a fast recovery (GDP may be 5.5-7.5% lower in 2020 compared to a no-COVID scenario) • Average GDP & poverty rates for 2020 hide sharp mid-year deteriorations (many businesses & people will require government support to cope & recover) Change in quarterly GDP Change in national poverty rate (national poverty line) Quarterly national impacts under faster or slower easing of lockdowns/recovery (changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario) -1.6% -17.9% -4.1% -0.2% -1.6% -19.1% -9.0% -1.3% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Faster lifting of restrictions Slower lifting of restrictions 0.6% 13.1% 1.9% 0.0%0.6% 14.0% 5.4% 0.5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
  4. 4. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak & Lockdown Policies in Senegal1
  5. 5. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 COVID-19 Cases & Policy Timeline First confirmed case in Senegal - Nationwide ban on all public events for 30 days - Closure of all schools and universities for 3 weeks - Restriction in land transport, prohibition of travels between cities - Closure of restaurants until further notice - Restriction on fishing wharves opening days to allow disinfection - Restriction on Pikine Central Fish Market opening days for disinfection - Restriction on bakeries working hours from 8pm - 6am 3/14 - Closure of Diaobé market (Southern Senegal) - Closure of all mosques - Closure of borders except for goods and cargo, suspension of all flights to and Europe and North African countries 3/19 - State of emergency declared - Response and solidarity fund “FORCE-COVID- 19” created 3/23 Opening of all places of worship and restaurants with social distancing requirement 5/11 - Distribution of food kits worth 69 billions FCFA - Obligation to pay at least 70% of salary for technical unemployment, suspension of non-misconduct dismissal (decree) 4/8 Launch of online platform JaaymaMburu “sell me bread” during month of Ramadan 4/28 Castor market (in Dakar, and supplying most of the city’s markets) closed for 15 days 4/27 - Launch of online platform by Ministry of Trade for stock management and price regulation - Restriction on opening days and time of supermarkets 5/03 Only vendors of essential products are allowed to open 4/26 - End of curfew and state of emergency - Rapid Entrepreneurship for Women and Youth (DER) provides support for livestock and agricultural sectors - DER support fish sector, co-financing of agricultural inputs, distribution of 10 million masks, and trade of horticultural products 6/30 Children in examination classes go to school to validate the year 6/2 - President decided to proceed with economic recovery, after 3 months of partial lockdown - Lifting of restriction on public transport, restaurants, cafes, casinos nationwide 6/4 0 50 100 150 200 250 2-Mar 9-Mar 16-Mar 23-Mar 30-Mar 6-Apr 13-Apr 20-Apr 27-Apr 4-May 11-May 18-May 25-May 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 7-Sep Confirmednewcases
  6. 6. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (1) Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions nationwide Directly Affected? Agriculture • Movement restrictions occurring at start of planting season • Ban on interstate passenger travel (labor & trade implications) None Mining & crude oil • Continuing to operate (essential sector) • Lower oil prices & export demand (small supply effects to date) None Manufacturing • Food processing & medicines exempted (essential sector) • Nonfood producing companies closed • Port congestion constraining access to inputs Some Utilities • Electricity & water distribution exempted (essential sector) None Construction • Many public works programs reduced in affected areas • Local curfews & border closures reducing activity elsewhere None Wholesale & retail trade services Restrictions on retail and supermarket trading hours and operating days High Transportation, storage & cargo • Rail & air travel closed; freight transport partly restricted • Demand for urban passenger transit reduced • Port cargo handling & storage exempted • Ban on interstate passenger travel High Hotels & food services • Restaurant dining banned or severely limited • Limited delivery options for food or other products High
  7. 7. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (2) Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions - Nationwide Directly Affected? Banking, finance & insurance • Money transfer services exempted (essential) • Banks operating with essential staff only • Other financial institutions closed or teleworking (e.g., insurance) Some Professional & business services • Almost all closed or teleworking (e.g., legal, accounting services) • Activities involving in-person field visits affected (e.g., engineers) Some Public admin & law enforcement • Public services & agencies remain open, but most staff teleworking • Public & private security services exempted (essential) Some Education services • All public schools closed without much scope for online delivery • Private schools closed with some online materials Some Health services • Health services exempted (essential) • Elective operations reduced but rising number of COVID patients None Sports & entertainment • Most sports & outdoor entertainment banned • Some activities operating (e.g., newspapers, radio & TV) High Other services • Domestic workers cannot commute, but live-in workers less affected • In-person religious gatherings banned • Major disruptions to informal repair firms due to market closures Some
  8. 8. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Global & Other Nationwide Shocks Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected? Export demand Nationwide Fresh and processed fish, and cement exports Some Remittances Nationwide Declines in the value of remittances sent by national working abroad Some Foreign Direct Investment Falling foreign direct investment in machinery, equipment, vehicles, and construction activities Some Government revenues Nationwide • Fall in tax revenues due to decline in economic activity • Lower trade tax collections due to reduced import demand Some See detailed sector-level assumptions about production & demand shocks in Annex at the end of slide deck
  9. 9. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Measuring Economic Impacts2
  10. 10. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Economywide Multiplier Analysis • Lockdown policies & shocks have direct impacts on the operation of certain sectors (e.g., closing businesses, restricting travel, etc.) • But it also generates indirect impacts on other sectors involved in supply chains (i.e., input suppliers & downstream users) • Multiplier analysis uses sector input-output data to measure direct & indirect impacts throughout & across supply chains (incl. impacts on GDP, jobs & household incomes) • Senegal model based on 2018 SAM & 2011 household survey data (results scaled to 2019 GDP & employment levels)
  11. 11. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Economywide Impacts GDP | Jobs Incomes | Poverty Direct impacts Framework for Analyzing COVID-19 GlobalImpact Channels (Due to partial or full lockdowns in other countries) Indirect impacts DomesticImpact Channels (Due to partial or full lockdowns in own country) • Export demand • Remittances & migration • Foreign direct investments • Agriculture • Mining & crude oil • Manufacturing • Utilities (energy, water) • Construction • Whole & retail trade services • Transportation, storage & cargo • Hotels & food services • Banking, finance & insurance • Professional & business services • Public administration & law enforcement • Education services • Health & social services • Sports & entertainment • Community & other services
  12. 12. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Impact Channels & Shocks • Lockdowns are simulated using a range of impact channels • Shocks to each channel are imposed on the model & impacts are simultaneously traced across all supply chains • Multiplier model separates entire Senegal economy into 86 sectors (shocks are calculated bottom-up using supply-use data for 101 goods & services) • Size of shocks is estimated by IFPRI’s staff & collaborators (see Annex) Impact channels used to replicate lockdowns 1 Restrictions on farming 2 Closing mining operations 3 Closing non-essential manufacturing operations 4 Restrictions on energy and water supply 5 Restrictions on construction activities 6 Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade 7 Transport/travel restrictions 8 Closing hotels, bars and restaurants 9 Closing non-essential business services 10 Government work-from-home orders 11 Closing all schools in the country 12 Restrictions on hospitals and clinics 13 Banning sports & other entertainment 14 Domestic workers & other services 15 Reduced export demand 16 Falling foreign remittances 17 Falling government revenues 18 Falling foreign direct investment × × × × × × No direct losses via these channels in Senegal (e.g., exempted or no information) ×
  13. 13. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Lockdown & Recovery Scenarios Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full lockdown Easing some restrictions during rest of Q2 Further easing of restrictions in Q3 Final easing by end of Q4 (possibly incomplete recovery) 1 2 1. Impacts during the full lockdown period only • Shocks weighted to reflect the geographic targeting of policies 2. Impacts for rest of 2020 as lockdowns are lifted each quarter • We will compare a faster vs. slower easing of restrictions • Analysis accounts for seasonality
  14. 14. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Economic Impacts During the Lockdown Period3
  15. 15. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 GDP Losses During Lockdown National GDP drops 20% during 4-week lockdown (most economic losses occur in the services sectors) Assuming lockdowns are not expanded or reintroduced Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Change in total GDP during lockdown period (%) Change in total GDP during lockdown period (US$ mil.) -20.3% -12.6% -13.6% -24.8% Total Agriculture Industry Services -$371.1 -$25.7 -$70.8 -$274.5 Total Agriculture Industry Services
  16. 16. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 17.2% 14.7% 13.9% 13.6% 9.9% 9.8% 5.5% 4.7% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade Limiting hotel and restaurant operations Closing non-essential business services Transport and passenger travel restrictions Falling foreign private remittances Decline in international travel Falling foreign direct investments Reduced export demand Banning sports & other entertainment Closing non-essential manufacturing… Closing all schools in the country Sources of GDP Losses Domestic trade and hospitality restrictions account for a third of GDP losses Contribution of lockdown restrictions & shocks to loss in total GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%) (limiting business and transport activities makes up about a quarter) Large impact on food system (see next slide) Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Large knock-on effect on goods producing sectors (incl. suppliers of inputs to all sectors) Large effect of financial service restrictions on other services Large impact on manufacture and business service sectors
  17. 17. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Impacts on the Agri-Food System Food supply is exempt from most restrictions, but it is still indirectly affected by falling consumer incomes & other shocks Change in agri-food GDP during lockdown period (%) Change in agri-food GDP during the 4-week lockdown period (US$ mil.) (food services is directly affected by the closing of hotels, restaurants & bars, but this is a small component of the overall agri-food system) Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Share of total GDP in 2018 (%) -16.5% -12.6% -13.7% -13.7% -72.2% Agri-food system (34.9%) Agriculture (16.7%) Agro-processing (8.7%) Food trade and transport (8.1%) Food services (1.4%) -$90.4 -$25.7 -$23.3 -$19.9 -$21.4 Agri-food system (34.9%) Agriculture (16.7%) Agro-processing (8.7%) Food trade and transport (8.1%) Food services (1.4%)
  18. 18. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 34.1% 20.1% 13.9% 10.5% 6.1% 5.5% 3.2% 3.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.4% Limiting hotel and restaurant operations Decline in international travel Falling foreign private remittances Reduced export demand Transport and passenger travel restrictions Closing non-essential manufacturing operations Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade Falling foreign direct investments Closing non-essential business services Banning sports & other entertainment Closing all schools in the country Sources of Agri-Food System GDP Losses Restricting hotel and restaurant causes a third of agri-food GDP losses Contribution of lockdown restrictions & shocks to loss in agri-food GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%) (suspending international travel makes up another quarter) Falling remittances are also more important for the food system because households spend a large share of their incomes on food Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Closing food service providers is more important for the food system than for the overall economy Limited demand for food services Effects on fishing and fish processing sectors
  19. 19. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 -12.6% -15.8% -20.1% -15.1% -11.8% -9.4% -23.4% -44.2% -8.8% -9.3% -3.8% -12.1% -13.2% Agriculture Crops Cereals Pulses & oilseeds Root crops Fruits & vegetables Sugarcane Export crops Livestock Meat & eggs Dairy Forestry Fishing Unpacking Agricultural GDP Impacts Change in GDP during the lockdown (%) Cereal crops are the largest food group and agric. subsector in Senegal Fishing agri-sub-sector supplies half of its domestic output to fish processing sector Share of agric. GDP in 2018 (%) (59.7%) (14.1%) (4.0%) (18.2%) (1.1%) (1.5%) (24.9%) (22.5%) (2.4%) (3.2%) (12.2%) Export crops hurt by falling export demand & input supply disruptions (greater use of inputs than other crops) Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results (20.8%) Groundnuts are also an important agri-subsector in Senegal; it provides inputs to peanut oil sector
  20. 20. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Unpacking Agricultural GDP Impacts Change in GDP during the lockdown (%) Processed foods are more intensively consumed by urban households, who are affected badly by lockdown (see later slides) Fishing agri-sub-sector supplies half of its domestic output to fish processing sector Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Note: Agri-food processing is a subsector within manufacturing -13.7% -19.6% -29.1% -4.2% -15.0% -5.0% -7.6% -13.0% -13.8% Food procesing Meat Fish Dairy Fruits & vegetables Fats & oils Cereal milling Other crops Beverages and tobacco
  21. 21. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Impacts on Household Incomes Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Change in household incomes during lockdown (%) All households experience large income losses Larger income losses for higher-income households (smaller losses for rural households because lockdowns target cities) (nonpoor more likely to work in manufacturing & services) -20.0% -14.5% -20.7% -14.6% -13.6% -19.5% -22.1% All households Quintiles 1-2 Quintiles 3-5 Rural Rural Farm Rural Nonfarm Urban
  22. 22. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Poverty Impacts During the Lockdown National poverty rate increases by 15 percentage points during lockdown period (2.4 mil. more poor Senegalese) Increase in share of population living in poverty during 4-weeks of lockdowns (%) Increase in number of poor people in Senegal during 4-weeks of lockdowns (mil.) Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results 15.0% 11.6% 19.5% National Rural Urban 2.4 1.0 1.4 National Rural Urban
  23. 23. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 4 Economic Impacts Under Fast & Slow Easing of Restrictions & Recovery
  24. 24. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Easing of Restrictions & Recovery We consider two stylized scenarios: Faster easing: Economy rebounds strongly in Q3 & largely returns to normal by Dec 2020 Slower easing: Modest rebound in Q3 with productivity in Q4 still below pre-lockdown levels Faster easing Slower easing Global shocks Q1 Jan No shocks in pre-COVID-19 period Feb Mar Full lockdown period starts in late March and lasts 4 weeks Remittances & export demand decline by 10%Q2 Apr May Shocks reduced by 10% (trade by 50%, arts by 5%) Shocks reduced by 50% for trade onlyJun Q3 Jul Losses reduced by 80% (trade by 90%, arts by 50%) Losses reduced by 50% (trade by 90%) Shocks reduced by 80% and 50% under faster and slower easing, respectively Aug Sep Q4 Oct Losses reduced by 99% Losses reduced by 90% (trade by 99%) Shocks reduced by 99% and 90% under faster and slower easing, respectively Nov Dec
  25. 25. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 GDP Impacts with Recovery Scenarios Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Change in quarterly & annual national GDP with fast or slow easing of restrictions (changes are relative to a no-COVID growth scenario) National GDP is 5.5-7.5% lower over 2020 as a result of COVID-19 -1.6% -17.9% -4.1% -0.2% -5.5% -19.1% -9.0% -1.3% -7.4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Quarterly averages Annual Faster lifting of restrictions Slower lifting of restrictions
  26. 26. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Cumulative Quarterly GDP Losses Even with faster recovery, Senegal ends 2020 with lower GDP (GDP losses accumulate each quarter & will take time to recover to pre-COVID levels) Cumulative changes in 2020 GDP from end of 2019 (pre-COVID expected growth rate for 2020 was 7% according to IMF’s 2019 Economic Outlook) Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 End of 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 US$billions Pre-COVID projected real GDP growth (6.8% in 2020) Lockdown + Faster easing (1.3% in 2020) Lockdown + Slower easing (-0.6% in 2020)
  27. 27. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Poverty Impacts with Recovery Scenarios Source: Senegal SAM Multiplier Results Change in national poverty rate with fast or slow easing of restrictions (changes are relative to a no-COVID growth scenario) Poverty should stabilize by end-2020 as people return to work, incomes recover & consumer demand resumes (This hides sharp spike in mid-year poverty, when many households living close to the poverty line may require government or other support to cope) 0.6% 13.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.6% 14.0% 5.4% 0.5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Faster lifting of restrictions Slower lifting of restrictions
  28. 28. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 A Detailed Assumptions About Production & Demand Shocks
  29. 29. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (1) Type of restriction or global shock Major sectors affected2 Size of shock Detailed subsectors affected by shock2 Direct restrictions on farming Agriculture (A) 0% Crop/animal production, hunting, related service activities (D01); forestry, logging (D02); fishing, aquaculture (D03) Limiting mining operations Mining, quarrying (B) 0% Coal, lignite (D5); crude petroleum, natural gas (D06); metal ores (D07); quarrying (D08); mining support service activities (D09) Closing non-essential manufacturing operations Manufacturing (C) 0% Food products (D10); textiles, clothing, leather (D13-15); chemicals, rubber, plastics (D20- 21); metals (D24-25); electromedical equipment (G266) -10% Beverages, tobacco (D11-12); coke, refined petroleum (D19); pharmaceuticals medicinal chemicals (D21); wood, paper, printing (D16-18); non-metallic minerals (D23); equipment, machinery (D26-28 excl. G266); vehicles, transport equipment (D29-30); furniture (D31), other manufactures (D33) Disruptions to energy and water supply Electricity, gas (D); water supply (E) 0% Electricity, gas, steam supply (D35); water collection, treatment, supply (D36); sewerage, waste collection/remediation (D37-39) Limiting construction activities Construction (F) 0% Construction of buildings (D41); civil engineering (D42); specialized construction activities (D43) Closing non-essential trading activities Wholesale (G) 0% Agricultural raw materials, live animals (G462); agricultural machinery, equipment, supplies (C4653); food, beverages, tobacco, incl. stalls & markets (G463 G471-472 C4781); construction materials, hardware, plumbing, heating equipment (C4663); automotive fuels (G473); wholesale trade (D46 excl. G462-463 C4653 C4663); Retail trade (G) -40% Motor vehicle trade/repair (D45); -50% Retail trade (D47 excl. G471-472 G47 C4781) Transport/travel restrictions Transportation, storage (H) -20% Postal/courier activities (D53); transport via pipeline (G493) -20% Sea/coastal/inland water transport (C5011-5012 C5022); transport support (G522) -20% Freight rail/road/air transport (C4912 C4923 G512); warehousing/storage (G521) -80% Urban/suburban passenger/other land transport (C4911 C4921-4922) -95% Passenger air transport (G511) Government work-from- home orders Public administration, defense (O) -20% Public administration, defense, compulsory social security (D84) Closing hotels, bars and restaurants Accommodation, food services (I) -80% Accommodation (D55); food/beverage service activities (D56)
  30. 30. Updated: Dec. 2, 2020 Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (2) Type of restriction or global shock Major sectors affected2 Size of shock Detailed subsectors affected by shock2 Closing non-essential business services Information, communication (J); finance, insurance (K); real estate (L); professional/ scientific/technica l activities (M); administrative/ support services (N) -10% Publishing activities (D58); programming/broadcasting activities (D60); telecommunications (D61); computer programming/consultancy activities (D62); information service activities (D63); financial services, insurance, pension funding, auxiliary services (D64-66); real estate activities (D68); security and investigation activities (D80) -10% Accounting, bookkeeping, auditing, tax consultancy (G692); head offices, management consultancy (D70); scientific research/development (D72); advertising, market research (D73); other professional/scientific/technical activities (D74); -10% Legal activities (G692); architectural/engineering activities (D71); veterinary activities (D75) -10% Motion picture/video/television program production, etc. (D59); renting/leasing activities (D77); employment activities (D78); travel agencies, tour operators (D79); building services, landscape activities (D81); office administrative, office support, other business support activities (D82) Closing schools Education (P) -10% Pre-primary and primary education (G851) -10% Secondary education (G852); Other education (G854) -10% Higher education (G853); Educational support activities (G855) Disruptions to hospitals and clinics Human health, social work (Q) 0% Human health activities (D86); residential care activities (D87); social work activities without accommodation (D88) Banning sports & other entertainment Arts, recreation, entertainment (R) -90% Creative/arts/entertainment activities (D90); libraries, archives, museums, other cultural activities (D91); gambling, betting activities (D92); sports, amusement/recreation activities (D93) Domestic workers & other services Other service activities (S); households as employers (T); extraterritorial organizations (U) 0% Extraterritorial organizations/bodies (D99) -20% Membership organizations (D94) -20% Other personal services (D96); domestic workers/personnel (D97); Other production activities of private households for own use (D98) -20% Repairing computers & personal/household goods (D95) Note: Numbers in parentheses are International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC Revision 4) codes (by major section with detailed subsectors, D is division, G is group and C is class).

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