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Sub saharan africa a fulcrum of the future_Final
- 1. Sub-Saharan Africa: A Fulcrum of the Future Presented to: The Board of Trustees The NAPE Foundation/Palm University North Star Partners
- 6. The Sub-Saharan Africa Development System
Editor's Notes
- This slidecast is a brief summary of a policy recommendation report addressing the issues of Sub-Saharan Africa. The West Africa country of Ghana is used as a proxy for the other 56 countries of Sub-Sahara Africa due to its similarities to the others with respect to economic and quality of life factors. The policy report was submitted to the Board of Directors of the NAPE Foundation and Palm University with reference to their vision of establishing a Christian-based university in Ghana.
- Sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to be a significant contributor to global growth and prosperity in the 21 st Century. Alternatively, it could be a pariah of the world. The region is huge – geographically and demographically. In physical size it is 2.5 times larger than the United States. It has a population of 600 million people and is growing at a rate of 2.8% per year. Despite its significance in geographic size and population it is effectively isolated from the global economy.
- Sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to be a major global contributor in the 21 st Century. The region has a tremendous reservoir of untapped natural resources. It has more farmable land, water and forest per capita than either China or India and Only one quarter of its arable land is cultivated and less than one-third is irrigated. Thus it has the potential to be a “bread basket” of the world! Furthermore, the region possesses a variety of energy resources, such as oil, natural gas, hydropower and geothermal power that is scarcely tapped. But…
- It is a deeply troubled region With all its natural resources Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region in the world It is plagued by political and social unrest, and corruption permeates its governmental and business institutions. The ultimate collapse of its social, economic and political structures is possible. If nothing changes to reverse this course “would the world turn its back on such a troubled region?” as Allen Hammond postures in “Which world? Scenarios for the 21 st century
- To address the issue of “contributor or pariah” I utilized the International Futures Model (the IFs Model) developed by Barry Hughes and Evan Hillebrand. The IFs model is a global forecasting model. It is a dynamic model that incorporates known trends and conditions to forecast numerous economic and quality of life factors. It provides a “base case” of regional and country forecasts. The IFs “base case” is used as a benchmark in this study The IFs model also incorporates known policy interventions for forecasting potential trends such as the United Nations Environment Program – GEO model. An invaluable use of the IFs model is the availability to create forecasts based on policy interventions. It is this capability that can provide policy makers a “vision” of the impact on economic and quality of life factors of various policy alternatives. A review of various proposed United Nations GEO interventions with respect to Ghana indicated that the “Policy First” intervention had the greatest potential. Hence, this intervention was also used as a benchmark
- To create a framework for identifying appropriate interventions for Ghana and Sub-Saharan Africa an economic development system was created. This system was based on various systems used in the IFs model. IFS model global cross-country analysis highlights the relationship between GDP per Capita and quality of life factors. Hence, the critical driver for economic and quality of life factors is GDP per Capita, which is in the center of the systems diagram.
- According to the Sub-Saharan Africa Development System diagram the primary drivers of GDP per Capita are government expenditures, foreign investment and foreign agricultural university partnership. Interventions per simulated for governmental expenditures in the areas of agricultural technology, tertiary education and manufacturing/resource management and services technology. An intervention was also simulated for an increase in foreign investment. The IFS model does not specifically provide for the simulation of increased foreign agricultural university partnerships. However, opportunities to improve increases effectiveness in agricultural yield through increased agricultural education was considered qualitatively.
- As mentioned earlier the cross-country analysis provided by the IFS model illustrates the relationship between GDP per Capita and quality of life factors. Hence, with respect to Sub-Sahara Africa interventions that drive improvement in GDP per Capita also drive improvements in quality of life in the region.
- The Sub-Saharan African region is comprised of 56 independent countries. Ghana’s GDP per Capita and quality of life factors are compared To narrow the focus on possible effective interventions the West Africa coastal country of Ghana was selected as a proxy. Two GDP per capita goals were initially established for assessment of possible policy interventions. A short-term goal of $3M per capita is the initial intervention target. At the $3M per capita annual GDP qualify of life factors are significantly improved. The long-term goal of $10M per capital is the next intervention target. At this level of GDP countries approach the status of developed countries with significantly enhanced economic and quality of life factors.
- After numerous intervention scenarios it is determined that significant and timely progress toward the short and long-term GDP per capita goal requires aggression intervention. All interventions required significant improvement of 3 to 5 times that currently existing. The improvement would be required to be made annually over an aggressive ten-year period, and maintained at that level thereafter. Interventions were effective in increasing GDP per capita in all interventions except an increase of investment in tertiary education. This is the case because Ghana currently spends 40% of its budget on education. Additional, spending is not deemed reasonable. However, for other Sub-Saharan Africa countries increased spending in this area should be considered.
- Although each intervention proved effective in increasing GDP per capita the time frame of 30-35 years for achieving the short-term target is unacceptable. Combining the interventions significantly shortened the period required to achieve the short term target to twenty years. In addition, the long-term goal of $10M GDP per Capita is achieved to mid-century twenty years earlier than either the IFS model base case or the Policy First scenario interventions. Furthermore, by the end of the 21 st century GDP per Capita exceeds $80M twice as great as the IFS base case or Policy First scenario
- Three primary recommendations are necessary to achieve this level of improvement in GDP and hence quality of life. First, a significant improvement in public administration and leadership through education is required Second, significant improvement in agricultural develop is needed. This will require participation of global agricultural technology companies and establishment of agricultural technology schools. Third, significant increase in domestic investment in economic and agricultural development couple of significantly increased foreign investment. This will require the creation of an effective business environment for both domestic and foreign investment.
- The recommendations are not easy. The interventions are intense and the time period is aggressive. Implementation will require strong leadership in Ghana and the other Sub-Saharan African countries. However, the potential outcome of successful of these interventions are tremendous, not only for Ghana and Sub-Saharan Africa but the entire global community.
- The leaders of Ghana and the other Sub-Saharan African countries are wise to heed the words of Hughes and Hillebrand “ We cannot know the future, but we must act as if we did”