Role of Emerging Countries in Global Food Security<br />Shenggen Fan<br />IFPRI Board of Trustees Meeting<br />Brasilia, B...
Key messages<br />Global food security is under stress<br />Emerging countries have an important role to play in global fo...
Hunger  MDG is not on track<br />Source: FAO 2009 and author’s calculations<br />Note: MDG1 target  is based on halving th...
Stress factors<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />Land and water constraints<br />Biofuel production<br /...
Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9.1 billion by 2050<br />Most growth to co...
Land and water constraints: high and rising<br />Land degradation, 1981-2003<br />Projected water scarcity in 2025<br />So...
NCAR A2a<br />Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009<br />Climate change: additional pressure on food production systems<br />C...
Emerging countries: strong economic and agricultural performance<br />GDP growth (%)<br />Agricultural GDP growth (%)<br /...
Emerging countries: stronger role in global economy <br />Share of world GDP (%)<br />Projection of the world’s largest ec...
Emerging countries: dominant role in global staple food production<br />Share of global crop production in 2007 (%)<br />C...
Emerging countries: increasing role in global trade<br />Value of Brazil’s total trade (exports and imports), US$ millions...
Emerging countries: increasing role in global trade<br />Exports from Brazil to developing countries, US$ millions<br />Im...
Emerging countries: increasing role in foreign direct investment<br />FDI flows to and from emerging countries, US$ billio...
Emerging countries provide cushion for developing countries during recent crisis
Often promote technologies and business practices more suitable for developing-country markets</li></li></ul><li>Emerging ...
Food insecurity remains high in emerging countries<br />Number of undernourished <br />Source: FAO 2009<br />Most alarming...
5 proposals for integrating emerging countries more strongly<br />
Improve food security of emerging countries<br />1<br />!<br />Safety nets <br />Ex ante and ex post risk management throu...
Promote mutually beneficial trade between emerging and developing countries<br />2<br />!<br /><ul><li>Eliminate harmful t...
Prevent resource exploitation and subsequent Dutch-disease effects on agricultural sector
Develop capacity of developing countries to export more agricultural and value-added products</li></li></ul><li>Increase p...
Improve coordination between emerging countries and other donors<br />4<br />!<br />“Competition is good for business”?<br...
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Role of Emerging Countries in Global Food Security

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Shenggen Fan, Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute

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  • Est.=estimated
  • As more data become available in the years to come, itshould be possible to provide a more robust analysis of South–South flows.Greater efforts to collect data are essential to progress.
  • Role of Emerging Countries in Global Food Security

    1. 1. Role of Emerging Countries in Global Food Security<br />Shenggen Fan<br />IFPRI Board of Trustees Meeting<br />Brasilia, Brazil <br />May 2010<br />
    2. 2. Key messages<br />Global food security is under stress<br />Emerging countries have an important role to play in global food security<br />Agenda for enhancing food security should integrate emerging countries more strongly<br />
    3. 3. Hunger MDG is not on track<br />Source: FAO 2009 and author’s calculations<br />Note: MDG1 target is based on halving the world’s share of hungry from 16% to 8% <br />
    4. 4. Stress factors<br />Population growth and demographic changes<br />Land and water constraints<br />Biofuel production<br />Climate change<br />
    5. 5. Rapidly growing population and demographic change<br />World population reaches 9.1 billion by 2050<br />Most growth to come from developing and emerging countries<br />All growth to come from urban areas<br />Source: FAO 2009<br />Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food<br />
    6. 6. Land and water constraints: high and rising<br />Land degradation, 1981-2003<br />Projected water scarcity in 2025<br />Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC)<br />Source: IWMI 2000<br />
    7. 7. NCAR A2a<br />Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009<br />Climate change: additional pressure on food production systems<br />Climate change impact on production of rainfed maize, 2050<br />Global production = -16%<br />
    8. 8. Emerging countries: strong economic and agricultural performance<br />GDP growth (%)<br />Agricultural GDP growth (%)<br />Source: World Bank 2009<br />Strong growth through diverse development pathways<br />
    9. 9. Emerging countries: stronger role in global economy <br />Share of world GDP (%)<br />Projection of the world’s largest economies: China 2nd, India 3rd, and Brazil 8th<br />Source: World Bank 2009 and IMF 2009<br />
    10. 10. Emerging countries: dominant role in global staple food production<br />Share of global crop production in 2007 (%)<br />China & India: largest shares of wheat and rice production<br />China, India, & Brazil: among top 6 producers of maize<br />Source: FAO 2009<br />
    11. 11. Emerging countries: increasing role in global trade<br />Value of Brazil’s total trade (exports and imports), US$ millions<br />China, India and Brazil rank as Africa’s 2nd, 6th and 10th largest trade partners <br />Source: UNCTAD 2009<br />
    12. 12. Emerging countries: increasing role in global trade<br />Exports from Brazil to developing countries, US$ millions<br />Imports to Brazil from developing countries, US$ millions<br />Possible impacts: Complementary and Competitive <br />Goal: Achieve “win-win” outcomes<br />Source: UNCTAD 2009<br />
    13. 13. Emerging countries: increasing role in foreign direct investment<br />FDI flows to and from emerging countries, US$ billions <br />Source: UNCTAD 2009<br /><ul><li>“South-South” FDI: 1/3 of all FDI to developing countries (est.)
    14. 14. Emerging countries provide cushion for developing countries during recent crisis
    15. 15. Often promote technologies and business practices more suitable for developing-country markets</li></li></ul><li>Emerging countries: increasing role in aid system<br />China’s aid to Africa, US$ millions<br />Source: Brautigam 2009<br />
    16. 16. Food insecurity remains high in emerging countries<br />Number of undernourished <br />Source: FAO 2009<br />Most alarming: rising number of hungry in India<br />
    17. 17. 5 proposals for integrating emerging countries more strongly<br />
    18. 18. Improve food security of emerging countries<br />1<br />!<br />Safety nets <br />Ex ante and ex post risk management through conditional cash/food transfers, public works, insurance for poor, etc.<br />Improve smallholder productivity <br />Promote access to productive assets, inputs, & services<br />Increase agricultural R&D (“frugal innovations”) to address future constraints; enhance extension services <br />Link smallholders to market<br />Improve infrastructure and information technologies<br />Support new institutional arrangements for vertical coordination<br />
    19. 19. Promote mutually beneficial trade between emerging and developing countries<br />2<br />!<br /><ul><li>Eliminate harmful trade restrictions
    20. 20. Prevent resource exploitation and subsequent Dutch-disease effects on agricultural sector
    21. 21. Develop capacity of developing countries to export more agricultural and value-added products</li></li></ul><li>Increase pro-poor FDI from emerging to other developing countries<br />3<br />!<br />Increase focus of FDI on:<br />Agricultural and rural development<br />Diversified and higher value-added sectors<br />Linking producers with markets, e.g. rural infrastructure<br />New approaches for (public-private) partnerships<br />Promote corporate social responsibility that reflects challenges and issues facing emerging/developing countries<br />
    22. 22. Improve coordination between emerging countries and other donors<br />4<br />!<br />“Competition is good for business”?<br />Major consequences on bargaining power of recipient states -> alternative sources of financing<br />Engage emerging donors in dialogue at multilateral, regional, and sectoral levels<br />Promote inclusive process with emerging donors on setting common standards in aid system<br />Share key experiences on what has and has not worked<br />Use existing and new institutional structures<br />
    23. 23. Support mutual learning of development experiences<br />5<br />!<br />Diverse development experiences of emerging countries more accurately reflect current geo-economic and -political landscape<br />Alternative to Washington Consensus and its successors:<br />Emerging countries have shown importance of<br />Broad-based agricultural development (China)<br />Pragmatic and evolutionary trial-and-error approach (China)<br />Network of targeted social protection programs (Brazil)<br />
    24. 24. Toward a food security agenda with increased engagement of emerging countries<br />

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