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Statistical Science: Some Concerns
Chief Speaker at One Day Seminar on Administrative Statistics
11th National Statistics Day (29 June 2017)
Rabindra Mandap, Bhubaneswar
Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Odisha
Srijit Mishra
Director, NCDS
Presentation Format
• Pleasantries
• Remembering Mahalanobis
–The Lal Quila Salt Connection
• Reproducibility
• Administrative Statistics
• Quality vs Quantity
• Conclusion
29 June 2017 2Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
The Lal Quila Salt Connection
• Partition saga
• Salt population – overestimate
• Rice population – underestimate
• Expectation Result
Image Source: Red Fort Facts
29 June 2017 3Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
Threats to Reproducible Science
Source: Munafo et al (2017) , Nature Human Behaviour
29 June 2017 4Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
Measures to improve efficiency
Theme Proposal
Method Protecting against cognitive biases
Improve methodological training
Independent methodological support
Collaboration and team work
Reporting and Dissemination Promoting study pre-registration
Improving the quality of reporting
Protecting against conflict of interest
Reproducibilty Encouraging transparent and open science
Evaluation Diversifying peer review
Incentives Rewarding open and reproducible practices
Source: Munafo et al (2017), Nature Human Behaviour
29 June 2017 5Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
Administrative Statistics
• Collection of Statistics Act, 2008 (Jan 2009)
– Central, State and Local level government
– Avoid duplication
– Principle of privacy
• Importance of data in decision making
– Regularity, Quality, and Completeness
• Certain advantages for departments
– Relevant to their functioning, no special costs,
oriented to definite purpose (direct and relevant).
29 June 2017 6Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
Source: MOSPI, Government of India
Quality vs quantity
• Quality in the times of BIG DATA
– “Lies, Damn lies, and Statistics.”
• Statistician’s role in this VIRTUAL ERA
– Face-to-face interaction is important.
• Audience in times of POWER POINT
– “It’s Not What We Said, It’s Not What They Heard,
It’s What They Say They Heard.”
29 June 2017 7Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
Source: Barry Nussbaum (2017)
Conclusion
• Another salt Satyagraha
• The concerns of reproducibility
– Efficiency, and robustness of research
• Importance of timely and reliable data
– Regularity, quality, and completeness
• Quality matters, Statistician matters, and
connecting with Audience also matters.
29 June 2017 8Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day

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Statistical Science: Some Concerns

  • 1. Statistical Science: Some Concerns Chief Speaker at One Day Seminar on Administrative Statistics 11th National Statistics Day (29 June 2017) Rabindra Mandap, Bhubaneswar Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Odisha Srijit Mishra Director, NCDS
  • 2. Presentation Format • Pleasantries • Remembering Mahalanobis –The Lal Quila Salt Connection • Reproducibility • Administrative Statistics • Quality vs Quantity • Conclusion 29 June 2017 2Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
  • 3. The Lal Quila Salt Connection • Partition saga • Salt population – overestimate • Rice population – underestimate • Expectation Result Image Source: Red Fort Facts 29 June 2017 3Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
  • 4. Threats to Reproducible Science Source: Munafo et al (2017) , Nature Human Behaviour 29 June 2017 4Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
  • 5. Measures to improve efficiency Theme Proposal Method Protecting against cognitive biases Improve methodological training Independent methodological support Collaboration and team work Reporting and Dissemination Promoting study pre-registration Improving the quality of reporting Protecting against conflict of interest Reproducibilty Encouraging transparent and open science Evaluation Diversifying peer review Incentives Rewarding open and reproducible practices Source: Munafo et al (2017), Nature Human Behaviour 29 June 2017 5Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day
  • 6. Administrative Statistics • Collection of Statistics Act, 2008 (Jan 2009) – Central, State and Local level government – Avoid duplication – Principle of privacy • Importance of data in decision making – Regularity, Quality, and Completeness • Certain advantages for departments – Relevant to their functioning, no special costs, oriented to definite purpose (direct and relevant). 29 June 2017 6Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day Source: MOSPI, Government of India
  • 7. Quality vs quantity • Quality in the times of BIG DATA – “Lies, Damn lies, and Statistics.” • Statistician’s role in this VIRTUAL ERA – Face-to-face interaction is important. • Audience in times of POWER POINT – “It’s Not What We Said, It’s Not What They Heard, It’s What They Say They Heard.” 29 June 2017 7Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day Source: Barry Nussbaum (2017)
  • 8. Conclusion • Another salt Satyagraha • The concerns of reproducibility – Efficiency, and robustness of research • Importance of timely and reliable data – Regularity, quality, and completeness • Quality matters, Statistician matters, and connecting with Audience also matters. 29 June 2017 8Srijit MISHRA, 11TH National Statistics Day