The document discusses crude oil inventory data from the API and expectations for the upcoming DOE report. It notes that crude stocks rose more than expected according to the API while gasoline stocks fell. The author expects the DOE report to show a 2 million barrel rise in crude supplies and maintains a bearish outlook for crude oil prices. Natural gas is recommended to be sold given bearish factors and expected high inventory levels in the upcoming DOE report.

1. DoE Data and Analysis of Commodity Advisory Services
Crude oil during late evening trade on Tuesday, the private sector major API released its weekly
inventory report. The inventory number showed that crude stocks rose by 2.63 million barrels for the
week ended 7th March and were higher than expected. In product-related stocks, distillate stocks fell by
just 839,000 barrels, though some support came from the gasoline front, where inventories dropped
2.15 million barrels. In the more important report due this evening from the DoE, we might see crude
supplies adding by around 2 million barrels, a Bloomberg survey shows. However, after looking at the
API data, we feel there is a chance for higher addition in crude supplies possible today. Traders would
also closely watch the refinery utilization rate which usually sees a decline during this time of the year.
In the other stocks factor at Cushing, the delivery point for the WTI stocks fell by over a million barrels as
per the API number. From the DoE data last week, stocks slipped by 2.66 million barrels in to a near two
year low of 32 million for week ended February 28. We feel stocks would continue to show a fall in
Cushing stocks. Nevertheless, traders should take note of movement in gulf stocks which increasing
continuously and particularly since the Cushing supplies have increased.
Overall we have been maintaining a broad bearish bias into the commodity for last couple of days and
nothing has changed with regards to the broader cues for the commodity today. While the API inventory
report was mixed, we are not expecting any positivism out of the DoE report tonight. While global
markets activity continues to be cautious due to weakness in China, we feel crude also would remain
subdued globally. Only risk remains is something negative happening in Ukraine. However, till that time
at least, we would continue to recommend selling in the commodity
Global market analysis: There are a few essential events that are currently playing out in the whole
financial markets which cannot be disregarded.
A) The continuous Russia-Ukraine tensions
B) The Chinese economic slowdown affecting the whole world. We believe that these events are in some
way having a very strong influence on the markets.
From the energy front, crude oil has come back down below $100 and this morning is trading at $99.42
for the WTI benchmarked April futures contract at NYMEX. We believe that the higher crude stockpiles
and Chinese concerns are pulling the commodity down and, it is likely that it may remain lower for the
day. We have the DOE petroleum inventory data from the US, which we believe will show a good of
amount surge in stockpiles. So for the day, we hold a bearish view on oil. There are no major data due
today.
Commodity Advisory Services
SELL NATURAL GAS MCX MAR BELOW 280 SL 284.5 TGT 275
Today Economic Data Indicators:
DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
12.03.14 05:20 GE Wholesale Price Index YoY Feb --- -1.7%
12.03.14 05:20 JN Tertiary Industry Index MoM Jan 0.6% -0.4%
12.03.14 15:00 JN Consumer Confidence Index Feb 40.0 40.5
12.03.14 15:30 UK Trade Balance Jan Yen2300 Yen1026
12.03.14 15:30 EC Industrial Production SA MoM Jan 0.5% -0.7%
12.03.14 16:30 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Jan 1.9% 0.5%
12.03.14 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar-07 --- 9.4%
12.03.14 17:30 IN Industrial Production YoY Jan -0.9% -0.6%
12.03.14 23:30 IN CPI YoY Feb 8.3% 8.8%