软实力与创新竞争力

© Dr. Otto C C. Lin 2014
軟實力與創新競爭力
西安交通大學-香港科技大聯合可持續發展學院
西安交通大學公共政策與管理學院
Prof. Otto C C Lin
林垂宙教授
2014. 11. 21

© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
大綱
1、老子：有無相對與有無相生
2、孔子：軟實力與硬實力重要性的比較
3、認識科技產品的軟硬實力
4、科技產業創新趨勢：以電腦業為例
5、軟實力與競爭力
6、軟實力與企業的可持續性經營

Dimensions of American Attractiveness
• Admire US for science/tech advances
• Like American music, movies, TV
• Like Americas ideas about democracy
• Like American way of doing business
• Good that American ideas/customs spread
Source: Joseph S. Nyes, Jr, “Soft Power: The
Means to Success in World Politics,” 2004
78 %
58 %
52 %
46 %
32 %

Soft Power
(Ref: Joseph S Nye, Jr.)
Hard Power:
Ability to influence others’ behavior from more direct means
-Military action
-Economic incentives
Soft Power:
Ability to influence others’ behavior from attractions in
- Systems
- Science and technology
- Culture
- Policies

Soft Power Behavior:
Examples
* Admire 讚賞
* Learn 學習
* Imitate 模仿
* Purchase 購買

老子第十一章
三十輻共一轂，當其無，有車之用;
埏埴以為器，當其無，有器之用;
鑿戶牖以為室，當其無，有室之用。
故有之以為利，無之以為用。

老子的 “自然相對論”
The “Natural” Relativity of Lao-tze
有無
Have Have not
Full Empty
Solid Void
Real Virtual
Hard Soft
Hard Power Soft Power

老子: 有無與利用
故:
有之以為利
The“Have”defines the use,
無之以為用
The“Have not”provides the usefulness.

25
The vertical computer industry, circa 1980
The transformation of the computer industry
FROM Only the paranoid Survive, by Andrew S. Grove, © 1996 by Andrew S. Grove
Used by permission of Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc.
Source : Lee, Miller, Hancock and Rowen, “The Silicon Valley Edge”, 2000
IBM DEC Sperry
Univac
Wang
Sales and
distribution
Application
Software
Operating
Systems
Computer
Chips

26
Retail
Stores
Superstores Dealers Mail Order
Word Word Perfect Etc.
DOS and Windows OS/2 Mac UNIX
Compaq Dell
Packard
Bell
Hewlett-
Packard
IBM Etc.
Intel Architecture Motorola RISCs
The transformation of the computer industry
FROM Only the paranoid Survive, by Andrew S. Grove, © 1996 by Andrew S. Grove
Used by permission of Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc.
Source : Lee, Miller, Hancock and Rowen, “The Silicon Valley Edge”, 2000
The horizontal computer industry, circa 1995
Sales and
distribution
Application
Software
Operating
Systems
computer
chips

© Dr. Otto C C Lin 2008
27
Dell NB PC
Inspiron 600M
ODM: Taiwan
Austin,TX
Micro-
processor
Graphic Card
Memory
Cooling Fan
Mother Board
DVD/CD Dr
Removable M
Power ADPT
LCD Display
Wireless Card
Moderm
Battery
Hard Disk Dr
Carrying Bag
Power Cord
Key Board
Intel-Philipines
Intel-Costa Rica
Intel-Malaysia
Intel-China
Samsung-Sha/Korea
Quanta-Sha/Taiwan
Compal/taiwan
Wistron/Taiwan
Samsung-Korea
Nanya-Taiwan
Infineon-Germany
Elpida-Japan
Samsung-Korea
LG-Philips-Korea
Toshiba-Japan
Sharp-Japan
ChiMei-Taiwan
Hannstar-Taiwan
AU Optronics-
Taiwan
Austek-XZ/Taiwan
Liteon-GZ/Taiwan
Foxconn-SZ/
Taiwan
Seagate-Sg/USA
Hitachi-Thai/Japan
Fujitsu-Thai/Japan
Toshiba-Php/Japan
Delta-Thai/Taiwan
Liteon-Sha/Taiwan
Samsung-SZ/Korea
Mobility-Sha/USA
Alps-Tianjin/Japan
Sunrex-SZ/Taiwan
Darfon-XZ/Taiwan
Source:
Thomas L Friedman,
“World is Flat”, 2003
The Dell NB Computer
Family-2000
Penang, Malaysia

Cloud Computing, circa 2014

硬科技與軟科技的結合(例)
• Virtual Reality 虛擬現實
• Embedded System 崁入式系統
• Failure Analysis 失誤分析
• System Optimization 系統優化
• Quality Management 品質管理
• Logistics Management 物流管理
• Behavioral Science 行為科學
• Business Model 經營模式
• Cloud Computing 雲端計算

論語顏淵篇
子貢問政。
子曰：「足食、足兵、民信之矣。」
子贡曰：「必不得巳而去，於斯三者何先？」
曰：「去兵。」
子貢曰：「必不得巳而去，於斯二者何先？」
曰：「去食。自古皆有死，民無信不立。」

硬實力與軟實力
硬實力：
- 富國
–強兵
軟實力：
–民信

Trust, Ethics and Power
信
- 信任 (Trust)
- 信用 (Creditability)
- 信賴 (Dependability)
- 信守 (Responsibility)
- 信仰 (Faith)

信與國防力: 孫子兵法 (始計篇)
兵者，國之大事：
死生之地，存亡之道，不可不察也。
故經之以五事，校之以計，以索其情。
一曰道，二曰天，三曰地，四曰將，五曰法。

孫子兵法五經
道：遠景、任務、價值信念
天：時間
地：空間
將：智、信、仁、勇、嚴領導力
法：標準、規範、紀律、制度公信力

信與經濟力
• Creditability
• Cost of Money
• Contract
• Accreditation

36
Energy & Environment
Product Strategy & Planning
VALUE
as perceived
by market
Materials Supply & Logistics Mgmt
Research & Development
Manufacture
Marketing & Distribution
Sales & Customer Services
Accounting & Financial Planning
HumanResources
Management
Soft Power Behind a Successful Business
(Source: O.C.C. Lin, 2009)
PriceCost

科技產品競爭力
• 有利基優勢 (Niche advantage)
• 最新的硬件 (State-of-art hardware)
• 最新的軟件 (State-of-art software)
• 簡捷的製造程序 (Simplified processes)
• 可更優化的價值(Up-gradable values)
- 多元性(versatility)
- 放大性(scalability)
• 送貨與服務 (Delivery and services)
© Dr. Otto C C Lin- 2014

老子: 有無相生
第四十章
天下萬物生于有，有生于無。

Competitiveness: Symbiosis of Have and Have not
有無共生
The Have (有)：
- Real (實體)
- Hardware (硬件)
- Vehicle (載具)
- Platform (平台)
- Hard Power (硬實力)
The Have Not (無)：
- Virtual (空虛)
- Software (軟件)
- Inventiveness (創意)
- Functions (功能 )
- Soft Power (軟實力)
Competi-
tiveness

Emerging Everywhere Computing
(Source: P. K. K. Sun, ITRI, 2014)
40 11
Each New Computing Cycle =
10x > Installed Base than Previous Cycle
Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report (12/09)
Technology Cycles Have Tended to Last Ten Years
Technology Cycles – Still Early Cycle on Smartphones + Tablets,
Now Wearables Coming on Strong, Faster than Typical 10-Year Cycle
Mainframe
Computing
1960s
Personal
Computing
1980s
Desktop Internet
Computing
1990s
Mobile Internet
Computing
2000s
Mini
Computing
1970s
Wearable /
Everywhere
Computing
2014+
Others?
49

軟實力為主導的創新
Soft Power Oriented Innovation
• 設計與時尚 (Fashion/Design)
• 提供新知識 (Knowledge Provider)
• 電子商貿 (E-Commerce)
• 休閑 (Entertainment)
• 社群網絡 (Social Network)

雲端計算創新: 舉例
Twitter
Dropbox
Facebook
Youtube Google Apps
Interaction
ServiceSimple Multiple
simple
Complex

Computing Costs Declining 33% Annually (1990 –2013)
(Source: P. K. K. Sun, ITRI, 2014)
43
$527
$0.05
$0.01
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$per1MMtransistors
Global Compute Cost Trends
Decreasing cost / performance curve enables
computational power @ core of digital infrastructure...
Compute Costs Declining = 33% Annually, 1990-2013...

Storage Costs Declining 38% Annually (1992 – 2013)
(Source: Paul K. K. Sun, ITRI, 2014)
44
Decreasing cost / performance of digital storage enables
creation of more / richer digital information...
$569
$0.02
$0.01
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$perGigabyte
Global Storage Cost Trends
...Storage Costs Declining = 38% Annually, 1992-2013...

環境變化: 老子談禍福
•福者禍所倚
•禍者福所伏

Founded 1908,
Produced cars in 37 countries, 10 brands.
For 77 years (1930-2007), It was world’s
Number 1 automaker
Reorganized in 2009 under Chapter 11,
Returned to profitability in 2011.
GM regained the Number 1 world carmaker
position in 2011 with >9 Million
units sold worldwide.

General Motors Recall-2014
Mary Barra, was elected CEO in the end
of 2013. She was formerly EVP-Global
Product Dev-Purchasing-Supply Chain.
GM had 3 changes of CEO &CFO in 2
years.
The faulty ignition switch system started
in 1997, then various ignition problems
have been reported. About 29 M cars
were recalled by the end of June, 2014.
GM was fined $ 35 Millions by NHTSA;
expected to cost more than $2 B to fix
safety related issues. With 19 deaths
and 79 lawsuits pending, estimated
losses could reach over $10 Billions.

老子: 談成敗
民之從事，常於幾成而敗之；
慎終如始，則無敗事。

Hewlett- Packard:
A Landmark Hardware Company in Electronics
The Company, started up in 1939, by Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard,
both EE students of Stanford University, in a rented garage in
Silicon Valley. It has become a leader in technology and corporate
culture, inspiring innovators and entrepreneurs world-wide.
It was a pioneering anchor in the Stanford Science Park. First a
developer of audio oscillators, gradually expanded to microwave
devices, medical and scientific instruments, home and personal
computers, LEDs and lasers, programmable calculators, etc. It
started its PC in 1980 followed by servers, workstations,
networking devices, laser jet printing and related imaging
products. It has engaged actively in mergers and acquisitions
around the turn of the year 2000 to broaden company scope. It is
now the second largest PC manufactures world-wide.
HP is well known for its corporate values and practices; many have
become standards in the US technology business.
The two founders have taken leadership in the operation of the
company for nearly 50 years.

Hewlett- Packard 公司的價值觀
1. 利潤 Profit: To achieve growth and provide resources to
achieve corporate objectives
2. 顧客 Customers : To gain their respect and loyalty through
values of products/services
3. 領域 Fields of Interest : To enter a field with ideas/skills that
can make needed and profitable contribution
4. 成長 Growth : To limit by profits and ability in developing new
products for customer needs
5. 人員 Our People : To share company’s success, provide job
security, recognize achievement, and insure personal
satisfaction
6. 管理 Management : To foster initiative and creativity by
allowing freedom of action in attaining well defined objectives
7. 社會責任 Citizenship : To honor our obligation to society to
each nation and community we operate

Industrial Trend: Profitability of Technology
Giants (2013)
Company Type Revenue, USBillion Gross Margin
VMWare Software 5.2 86.0 %
Oracle Software 37.2 80.9 %
Microsoft Software 77.8 74.0 %
Google Software 59.8 56.8 %
EMC Hard/Soft 23.2 62.3 %
Cisco Hard/Soft 48.6 60.6 %
Intel Hard/Soft 52.7 59.8 %
IBM Hard/Soft 99.8 48.6 %
H-P Hardware 112.3 23.1 %
Source: Wall Street Journal, 2014-03-07

Hewlett-Packard

Growth Trends of Personal Computers + 52%, 2013
57
7
Global PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter
Q1:95 – Q4:13
0
20
40
60
80
Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 Q1:13
GlobalUnitsShipped(MMs)
Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets
Tablet Units = Growing Faster Than PCs Ever Did...
+52%, 2013
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.
+ 52%

成功創業者的價值觀
品質
至善
信義
立業
以人
為本
堅忍
毅力
團隊
精神
創造
利基
機敏
策略
參考: 林垂宙著— “ 創新四重奏:從實驗室到市場,” 上海交通大學出版社, 2014

老子的人生觀

Soft Power: Management of Change
軟實力: 危機處理的基礎
• In Good Time
- Humility
- Preparedness
• In Bad Time
- Assertive
- Vigilant
• 順境
-居安思危、信義立業
-品質至善、未雨綢繆
• 逆境
- 警惕反省、守時待勢
- 求變求通、開創新機

A Sustainable Enterprise
Quality
Teamwork
Spirit
People
Globalization
Innovation
Capacity
Business Ethics
Soft Power

結語 (Concluding Remarks)
• 軟實力與硬實力特性是個人、企業、組織、國家的基本性質;
兩者相互補全而相互加強。
• 產品的硬實力特性界定了物體範疇 ; 軟實力特性發揮了使用價值。
科技產品的競爭優勢，多由軟實力特性彰顯。
• 科技產業的發展過程中，軟實力特性日益重要。
二十世紀後期電腦產業的演變，是一個重要實例。
* 規劃科技產品和產業的競爭力，焦點應在對顧客產生新的使用價值上。
• 能激發所有成員信任的能力是領導人及領導力最重要的因素。
• 技術產業的成功及可持續發展的因素包括: 信義立業的文化、優越的品質
、個人的尊重、建立團隊、堅軔的毅力、策略性的眼光、環境變化的管
理等。
• 從國際化企業發展過程中的失誤學習: GM 的產品品質管理及顧客信賴 ,
HP 的策略形成及價值創造，是重要的例子。
• 利用變化管理創造競爭力。其原則在軟實力--禍福相倚、居安思危；求變
求通、開創新機。

曾子談軟實力: 個人
曾子曰：吾日三省吾身:
為人謀而不忠夫？
與朋友交而不信夫？
傳不習夫？

謝謝, 歡迎討論！
occlin@ust.hk
occlin@gmail.com
yaotv.tv/zcd/zc00004459

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