2. D 3Ha KOMCTBO
D LfeM 3aHll1MaKJTCR cospeMeHHble 3KOHOMll1CTbl?
D <<PecypcHoe npoKJlRTll1e 2.0>>
D OxoTa 3a ll1HCTll1TYTOM
- TeOplll~
KoHcTaHTii'IH CoHii'IH I P3W

3. 2oooo r
$(1990)Ha~enoseKa
1sooo
10000
5000 ApreHTMHa
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
fOA
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W

4. 2oooo r
$ (1990) Ha 4enoseKa
1sooo
10000
- -
5000 ApreHT~Ha
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
rOA
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W

5. llpou;enTLI
1---l 1---l N N
t.JI
= til
= t.JI
= = = = = =I I I
1950 I
1952 I
I
1954 I
1956 I
I
1958 I
1960 I
I
1962 I
1964 I
I
1966 I
1968 I
I
1970 I
1972
I
I
1974 I
1976
I
I
1978 I
1980
I
I
1982
1984
1986
1988
I
I
1990 I
1992
I
I
01994 I
~I
1996 =I ~ ~
1998 I ~
==
~
n
~
2000
I o-
I ::
0
~2002 ~ I =• lt'Q

6. D s XX seKe ouKmamypbl pacmym maK JKe 6bJcmpo
1<01< oeMOKpamuu (Barra, 2004; Przheworski et al,
1999, 2001, Persson, Tabellini, 2000, 2005, ...)
- npillMepbl ycnexa: «a3illaTCKille Tillrpbl»
- nposaflbl: AQ>pi11Ka so 2°~ noflOBillHe XX seKa, "Heo-
cyflTaHil14eCKille" pe>t<illMbl
D HeT 3aBl+1Cl+1MOCTl+1 <<6oraTCTBO => AeMoKpaTl+1R>>
- V1HAillR
- Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson {2006), Acemoglu {2009)
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W

7. Session: 10:30- 18:45 2006109127
... TM Govtrnmet OIOt Le vel ln 199•2005. ,_,of GOP
!Mf1W1
.. 1680
"''
..
1440
.,_
1200
960
720
480
240
0
(C) RosBusinessConsulting 2006
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W

8. D Ex-post, cTpaHbl c n!10Xl+1Ml+1 n0!1l+1Tl+1'-lecKl+1Ml+1
l+1HCTl+1l)'TaMl+1 AeMOHCTpl+1pyKlT 6011ee B0!1aTl+111bHble
noKa3aTe!1l+1
- eCTb aBTOKpaTit1it1, KOTOpble paCTYT 04eHb 6biCTpO
- eCTb aBTOKpaTit1it1, KOTOpble paCTYT 04eHb MeAfleHHO
D Ex-post B0!1aTl+111bHOCTb =>ex-ante pl+1CKl+1
D Pl+1CKl+1 BHe pasHosecHoro nyTl+1 He Ha6!1KlAaKlTCR
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W

9. 0AMH npMMep: ~MJ1M, 1960 · 2005
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
10% +-----------~--------~----------~----------~--------~
5%
E 0%
::l
c:
c:
cu
...Q)
c.
~0
-5%
- - -actual growth rate
---a-..erage growth rate
--------- a-..erage+std.dev.
-10% •••• •••••a-..erage-std.dev.
-15%
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W

10. c: 10C1)
(,)
9s...
C1)
8c.
.. 7C1)
.....
6cus...
J: 5
~ 40s...
3C)
c.. 2
c 1C)
- 0cu
::l
-1c:
c: -2<(
- World - Developing countries - Russia
Source: IMF
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 10

11. 11

12. D <<Cl+1!1bHaR>> sepcl+1R: Ha!1l+1L~l+1e npl+1pOAHbiX
pecypCOB npl+1BOAl+1T K HeraTl+1BHbiM nOC11eACTBl+1fiM
- TeMnbl 3KaHaMil14eCKara pacTa Hill>Ke, 4eM BCTpaHaX 6e3
pecypcas
D <<C11a6aR>> sepcl+1R: y cTpaH, s KOTOpbiX ecTb
npl+1pOAHble pecypcbl, npo611eM 6o!1bwe, L~eM
AOil>f<HO 6bll10 6b1Tb
- TeMnbl 3KaHaMil14ecKara pacTa ill naKa3aTeflill
6JlaracacTaRHillR He HaCTaflbKa BbiWe, 4eM BCTpaHaX 6e3
pecypcas, 4eM Ma>KHa 6blfla a>KillAaTb
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 12

13. GDP gro"'~h in %
5 0
4
3
2
l
0
-1
- 2
- 3
0
0
0
0
Mehlum, Moene, and Torvik (2006)
6
-~
~
-~
4...
•0
-"0
•$l
rn
:I
:a'
2
Ill
a;
:b ~<D ~
0
0) Q)
..... E
.!!! 0
·- (.)
-2C.r::
Ill ·-
(.)
...Q)
Q.
a. -4z
(!)
0
s;:
-6l0...(!)
-8
Share of natural capital in national wealth 1994 (%)
Gulfasson (2005)
0 CTpaHbl, y KOTOpbiX eCTb <<pecypcHafl
3aBV1CV1MOCTb>>, pa3BV1BaiOTCfl MeAJleHHO
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 13

14. D PoeT BBn Ha AYWY Hace/leHl-1R, 1965- 1998
D VlpaH: -1%
D BeHecy31la: -1%
D fll-1Bl-1R: -2%
D VlpaK: -3%
D Kyse~T: -3%
D KaTap: -6%
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W HecJ>Tb H cao6oAa npeccbl 14

15. ...
.l·
I '-- -I'"' " llf/1"-"'DD rr , nnn. "" ....,._
1t tw·.
11 1~..:..
f-Z;:-~~'2;'!,!0!~~~·.:t:f.~f-:S~i«~t!l..ZSE~i:E~a?:3a:a:~:i~!~~1i:.i!t!:!.S3e
fijiii~ii~i~ii;iii;~ii~iiiiiiiiiJi;iiiiiJi;~iiiiji;;;iil~i;iii
...,,..,.......... u.
A.VInnap~oHoB, VI3A
J•
,!
-fH • - r-••~ · • 4 -- • • · • ••rr ..... .,,......--_,.....,...,.. , .......,•• .--.,.r .•l...,
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W HecJ>Tb 1.1 cao6oAa npeccbl 15

16. D"ro1111aHACKaR 6o!1e3H b": Ma Kp03KOHOMl-1'-lecKl-1e
Al-1C6a!1aHCbl, B03Hl-1Ka.aw.l-1e npl-1 Halll-1'-ll-'ll-1
u
npl-tlpOAHbiX pecypcos s pe3yllbTaTe HenpaBl-'lllbHOl-1
n Olll-'lTl-1 Kl-1
- Sachs, Warner, 1995, 1999, Auty, 2001,...
DnoBbiWeHl-'le u.eH Ha He<J>Tb nllOXO CKa3biBaeTCfl
TOrAa, KOrAa l-1HCTl-1TYTbl n!10Xl-1e
- Gylfason, 1999, 2001, Sonin, 2003, Mehlum, Moene,
Torvik, 2006
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 16

17. D Bo3Hl+1KaiOW.l+1~ KOHCeHcyc s aHa!1l+13e <<pecypcHoro
npoKllf1Tl+1fl >>
- eCJlil1 ii1HCTii1TYTbl XOpOWil1e, TO pecypCHOe npOKJ1RTil1e He
rpo3ii1T
D KaK scerAa c l+1HCTl+1TyTaMl+1, TPYAHO 3a LITO-To
yxsaTl+1TbCR
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 17

18. 18

19. 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
N ~ ~ L{) <0
0) 0) 0) 0) 0)
0) 0) 0) 0) 0)
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W
---
1'- co 0) 0 ~
0) 0) 0) 0 0
0) 0) 0) 0 0
~ ~ ~ N N
N ~ ~
0 0 0
0 0 0
N N N
II
cso6o.Qa npeccbl,
FH
19

20. 60 Frequency of violations
40
20
0
2002 2003 2004
• Russia • BS oG7
Reporters without borders (2004)
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W HecJ>Tb H cao6oAa npeccbl 20

21. 70
60
50
40 • OiiPricesMA
30 • MediaFreedom
20
10
0
N ('() ~ L{) <D
"'
CX) (j) 0 'r N ('() ~
(j) (j) (j) (j) (j) (j) (j) (j) 0 0 0 0 0
(j) (j) (j) (j) (j) (j) (j) (j) 0 0 0 0 0
'r 'r 'r 'r 'r 'r 'r 'r N N N N N
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 21

22. KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W
E.tlutan POCCHR
KnPil>
AAnP
Cnp«UCAII~onJt Pocc~u
5;0it0KO
22

23. --....
::>
0
l)
l)
0
(X)
0
KoHcTaHTHH COHHH I P3W
2
eTMP
4 --------r--
Democracy
6
-~8---
10
He~Tb H cso6oAa npeccbl 23

24. 24

25. e sGP
• MYS
LO
0
• MDA
LO
I
e MifB
• GTM • DOM
• UKR • ARG'r"
I
• PRY
• BLR
-.2 0
e( mf100 IX)
coef =2.0279242, (robust) se = .30505318, t = 6.65
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W
.2
• MLI
• BEN
•coG
.4
25

26. Cao6oAa CMVI MKOHTPOIIb 3a Koppyn14MeM
l{)
l{)
0
l{)
~
I
e MDA
• BLR• UKR • ARG
• PRY
-.2 0
e( mf100 IX)
coef = 2.345469, (robust) se = .37945259, t = 6.18
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W
.2 .4
26

27. Koppyn4MR MBBn Ha AYWY HaceneHMR
..q-
0
0
N
-s:
s:
::r
1::
>-Q.
Q.
0
::r::
(1)
s:
J:
(1)
":!'
s:
J:
<ll
Q.
L..
0
0
"'""I
-2 -1 0
e( loggdppcppp IX)
coef =.71095088, se =.0427743, t =16.62
cm.omKn. HU}I(e
nuHuu peapeccuu
BBn Ha AYWY HaceneHit1~ , PPP, 2004
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W HecJ>Tb H cao6oAa npeccbl 27

28. 28

29. no'4eMy Heci»Tb MewaeT CMM?
D CMV1 HaXOART, arperit1pytaT it1 ny611ii1KYtOT it1Hcf>opMaU.it1tO o
noBeAeHit1it1 roCyAapCTBeHHbiX 4it1HOBHit1KOB
- TO ecTb AaiOT B03MO>KHOCTb npaBl-1TeJ110 C03AaBaTb CTl-1MYJlbl AJlfl
610pOKpaTOB
D CMV1 noMoratOT pewaTb «npo611eMy KOOPAii1HaU.it1it1»
- a 3TO ocHOBHafl npo6JleMa scex pesoJ110U.l-1i1
- CMV1 KOOPAl-1Hl-1PYIOT npeACTaBJleHl-1fl l-1 O>Kl-1AaHl-1fl J110Aei1
D Hallit14it1e Hecf>Tit1 no3BOI1ReT He 3a6oTit1TbCR o CTii1MYilax
6tapOKpaTOB
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 29

30. D Hosei1wV1i1 onbiT
- Cep6~~, rpy3~~, YKpa~Ha
- nepy (McMillan, Zoido, 2005)
D '-lyrb 6o11ee AafleKV1i1, 3aro Haw co6crseHHbli1, onbiT
- 19 asrycTa 1991 roAa, penopTa>K Cepre~ MeABeAeBa s
nporpaMMe «BpeM~»
- aHaJlor~4Hbli1 onbiTs AeKa6pe 2011?
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 30

31. D 1985
naAeHI!1e 4eH Ha HecpTb ~ He06XOA'-1MOCTb 9KOHOM'-1l.feCK'-1X
npeo6pa3osaH'-1H
Ho HY>KHO C03AaBaTb CTI-1MY11bt AflR 6topoKparos
D Heo6XOA111MO C03AaBaTb He3aBlt1Clt1Mbte CMV1 Aa»<e
ec11111 OHII1 cTaBfiT coxpaHeHlt1e pe>t<lt1Ma noA sonpoe
...2flOCHOCmb - oeiJcmBeHHOfl cjJopMO BCeHOpOOH020 KOHmpOflfl 30
oeRmenbHocmbJO ecex
6e3 UCKfliO'-IeHUFI Op20HOB ynpoeneHUfl, MOUJ,Hb/U pbl'-102
ucnpoeneHUfl HeoocmomKoe.
ne'-IOmb npU380HO 6blmb ew,e 6onee oeiJcmeeHHOU, He OOBOmb
nOKOfl... 6e30eflbHUKOM,
KOpbiCmOfl106U,OM, npucnoco6neHU,OM, 30)1(UMW,UKOM KpUmUKU,
OeM02020M...
oKmueHee noMo2omb meM, Kmo coMoomeep)l(eHHO 6opemcfl
30 nepecmpoiJKy.
D Cso6oAHbte CMV1 s lt1Tore nplt1Belllt1 K pocTy
nonyllflpHOCTlt1 EllbL.J.lt1Ha (11 CTOII1Jl (11 rop6a4eBy BJlaCTlt1
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 31

32. D "OzpaHuLteHuR ceo6oobl uHc{JopMau,uu npueooRm KmoMy,
LfmO He mOflbKO 3GmpyoHeH KOHmpOflb 30
PYKOBOoumenRMU, He mOflbKO noopb!BaemcR UHUU,Uamuea
Hapooa, Ho u pyKoeooumenu npoMeJKymoLtHozo ypoeHR
nuweHbl u npae u uHc{JopMau,uu u npeepaw,a10mcR a
naccuBHbiX ucnonHumeneiJ, LfUHOBHUKOB. PyKoeooumenu
Bb/CWUX Op2GHOB nonyLfGfOm CfiUWKOM HenOfiHyfO,
npuznaJKeHHYfO uHc{JopMau,ufO u moJKe nuweHbl
B03MOJKHOCmU 3c{Jc{JeKmUBHO UCnOflb30BGmb UMefOW,UeCR
y HUX nonHOMOLfUR."
(( n~cbMO MeABeAeBa, Caxaposa ~ Typ4~Ha PYKOBOACTBY CCCP», 1970 rOA.
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 32

33. D <<AV1lleMMa rop6a4esa >>
D npV1Mep SARS (Saich, 2003)
- B Te4eHille MeCRLJ.eB MeCTHOe pyKOBOACTBO CKpbiBaJlO
itlHQ>opMaLJ.illtO o SARS
- B illTOre U.eHTp BbiHY>KAeH 6bl11 pearillpOBaTb Ha
coo6w.eHillR illHOCTpaHHbiX CMV1
D V1epapxV1R AOCTynHOCTV1 cneu.ra3eT
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 33

34. D V111fltOCTpi11pyeT MOAeflb c ii1CnOflb30BaHil1eM Me>KcTpaHOBbiX
AaHHbiX
D npeACKa3aHii1R TeOpi11i11
- Halll-14l-1e npl-1pOAHbiX pecypco8 ~ MeHbwe noTpe6HoCTl-1 8
C03AaHl-1l-1 CTl-1MYll08 ~ MeHee c8o6oAHble CMV1
- 3Tl-1 3<f><f>eKTbl OC06eHHO Cl-1JlbHbl 8 HeAeMOKpaTl-14eCKl-1X CTpaHaX
D AaHHble
- Pecypcbl: 3anacbl He<f>Tl-1 c cai1Ta BP
- AeMoKpaTl-1fl: 6a3a AaHHbiX Polity IV
- C8o6oAa CMV1: Freedom House
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 34

35. 0
N
0
-2
eoenmark •Australia
eNorway
•canada
•united Ki"lgdom
1fjffad and Tobago
. eBrazil
•Thailand •Argentina
eEcuador
• United States
· •India
•Romania evenezuela, RB
eMexico
•Gabon
ecolombia
• Congo, Rep• Qatar81ndonesia
evemen, Rep. •Malaysia
•oman
eTunisia eEgypt Arab Rep.
• Vietnam eSynan Arab Republic
eEquatorial Guinea eAJgefi~China
esudan
eubya
0 2
e( Log_Oii_Reserves_19921 X)
•Kuwait
e
1
united Arab.Emirates
•lran,-TSiamJC R"eD.
•saudi Arabia
4
coef = -2.0127155, (robust) se = .69009798, t = -2.92
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 35

36. PerpeccMR - cao6oAa CMMIM He~Tb
0
N
0
0
T"""
I
0
N
I
-2
eGAB
eTUN
•coG
eCHN
esoN •
etTA eROM
••rmA eVEN
eMYS
eJRN
ecoL
-1 0 1
e( Log_Oii_Reserves_19921 X)
coef =-4.0878824, (robust) se =1.2433049, t =-3.29
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W
eSAU
2 3
36

37. 0
('.1
1.()
.....
Russia
§
1
• 2002 ~• 2003 u:
co
• 04 'g
:a
• 2005
4 4.2 4.4
Log ofoil reserves in billion barrels
Iran
....
• 1998 ~
~. 1999 c::
. 2000 §e 19W2001 -g
~
9 ~
. 2002u.
~ .200~
• 1993 ••J 5
4.5 5
Log ofoil reserves in billion barrels
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W
0
0
.....
Mexico
• 199~
2.5 3 3.5 4
Log of oil reserves in billion barrels
USA
3.4 3.5
Log ofoil reserves in billion barrels
0,.._
0
co
0
1.()
0
('t)
Venezuela
5 ••ilm
4 4.2 4.4
Log ofoil reserves in billion barrels
37

38. 0 Hawl!1 cTaTbll1 Ha 3TY TeMy
Egorov, Guriev, Sonin {2009) Why Resource-Poor Dictators Allow Freer Media?
Theory and Evidence from Panel Data, American Political Science Review
ryp~eB, Eropos, CoH~H, Cso60Aa npeCCbl, MOT~BaU.~fl 4~HOBH~KOB ~
pecypcHoe npoKJlfiT~e, Bonpocbt 3KOHOMUKU, NQ4 3a 2007 roA
ryp~eB, CoH~H, «3KOHOM~Ka «pecypcHoro npOKJlfiT~fl», BonpOCbl 3KOHOM~K~,
anpellb 2008
CoH~H, l-1Hcr~ryu.~oHaJlbHafl reop~R 6ecKoHe4Horo nepeAeJla, Bonpocbt
3KOHOMUK~ NQ63a2005roA
0 Bee MaTepl!1aJlbl (HayKa, «BeAOMOCTll1»):
- www.nes.ru/""ksonin (~Jl~ www.sonin.ru)
0 }K}K AJlfl KOMMeHTapl!1eB:
- ksonin.livejournal.com
KoHcTaHTHH CoHHH I P3W 38