Housing data for the 9 city region including Temecula, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Wildomar, Canyon Lake, Hemet, San Jacinto and Perris.

1. UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty was the working title of a recent presentation to the 556th Board of Directors meeting for
the California Association of Realtors®. Uncertainty is behind much of what is driving our housing
market and indeed our economy right now. Given the constant negative drumbeat of the media, people
are uncertain about impeachment, Brexit, trade wars, the stock market, gas prices, vaping, you name it
– it’s probably bad. And that makes people uncertain. If anything drives us into a recession, it will be
uncertainty. In spite of a return to record low interest rates, people aren’t buying homes because of –
uncertainty.
Is that uncertainty warranted? Well, it depends on who you talk to. There are experts who predict a
recession starting sometime in 2020. There are other experts who predict that the current underlying
economy is sound and sustainable for the foreseeable future. As usual, I agree with the experts. It’s the
whims of human nature I’m not so sure about.
Consumer confidence dropped a bit in September but intermittent short term variations do not create a
trend – until they go on for awhile. Continued uncertainty will continue to diminish consumer confidence
in the expansion. For example, nearly 15% of properties under contract have fallen out of escrow so far
in 2019. That’s not an unusually high number but it’s usually because buyers couldn’t come up the
down payment or qualify for the mortgage. This year the reason nearly half fell out of escrow was not
inability to qualify or come up with the down, they were simply uncertain and changed their minds
about buying a home right now.
But enough about stuff we have no control over, what’s happening in our local housing market? For the
first seven months of the year we were trailing last years sales volume. But surprisingly strong demand
in August and September pushed year-to-date sales past 2018 in August and increased the margin to a
2% advantage in September (8,194 / 8,358). Unless everything tanks between now and year-end we’ll
post a decent year. Nowhere close to our 2017 volume (9,013 YTD), but pretty good all the same.
Prices continue to appreciate, albeit at a rate about half that of prior years. Since 2014 we’ve averaged
nearly 7% appreciation year-over-year. Year-to-date we’re only up about 3% over last year ($374,391 /
$384,452). That slow-but-steady rise propelled California median price to an all time high of $617,410
in August. That’s definitely good news IF you are a homeowner. If you’re not, well, it’s not so good.
Because every rise in home price keep a few more people from entering the market.
An interesting slide from our last meeting shows the out-migration from Coastal California landing
primarily in the Inland Empire as people are priced out of those areas. But out-migration from our
region is overwhelmingly out of state with Texas and Arizona being the principal recipients. Surprisingly
the #3 destination for folks moving from the IE is Kern County (Bakersfield! Really?), but 9 of the top 10
are moving out of state. So people move to our area when they’re priced out of coastal regions and
when they hit their limit with us, they hit the road out of state. And $4.00+ gas prices really don’t help
our commuters at all.
So are we headed for a recession? Probably, at some point, maybe sooner, maybe later. In his recent
address, our C.A.R. CEO Joel Singer predicted that we will definitely have a recession ‘sometime
before 2035’. And we were reminded of the cardinal rule of forecasting –
Never give a number and a date in the same sentence. Good advice.

2. Southwest
California
Reporting
Period
Current
Month
Last
Month Year Ago
Change from
Last Month
Change from
Year Ago
Existing Home Sales
(SFR Detached)
September
2019
944 1,077 833 12% 12%
Median Home Price $395,990 $391,022 $388,878 1% 2%
Unsold Inventory Index
(SFR Units)
2,350 2,353 2,890 --% 19%
Unsold Inventory Index
(Months)
2.5 2.2 3.9 12% 36%
Median Time on
Market (Days)
28.7 29 27.8 1% 3%
SW Market @ A Glance
Source: CRMLS

3. August 2019 SFR Transaction Value*:
Temecula $113,635,365 Lake Elsinore $38,688,465
Murrieta $96,674,009 Wildomar $14,393,700
Menifee $77,899,464 Canyon Lake $14,992,900
Hemet $45,074,350 San Jacinto $22,300,882
Perris $23,232,258 Total $448,891,343
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.
September 2019 SFR Transaction Value*:
Temecula $76,211,768 Lake Elsinore $30,034,200
Murrieta $79,982,049 Wildomar $12,797,590
Menifee $50,731,306 Canyon Lake $6,061,049
Hemet $37,351,900 San Jacinto $15,755,100
Perris $24,021,840 Total $332,946,802
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.
September Median Price:
2018 2019 %
Temecula $486,000 $489,900 1%
Murrieta $439,450 $459,900 4%
Menifee $370,000 $366,912 2%
Lake Elsinore $380,000 $391,000 3%
Wildomar $425,000 $407,000 4%
Canyon Lake $490,000 $515,000 5%
Hemet $269,450 $285,000 6%
San Jacinto $305,000 $310,000 2%
Perris $335,000 $339,482 2%

5. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Lake Elsinore
0
50
100
150
200
250
Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris
Southwest California Homes
SFR sales I-15 corridor
Southwest California Homes
SFR sales I-215 corridor

6. $250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Temecula Murrieta Wildomar Lake Elsinore
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
Menifee Canyon Lake Hemet San Jacinto Perris

7. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1/15 4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19
Inventory Sales Linear (Inventory) Linear (Sales)
Inventory v. Sales
September Demand
Supply (2,353 – 2,350) --%
Pending ( 1,007 - 918) 9%
Demand (1,077 - 944) 12%
Days on Market (29 – 28.7) 1%
Months Inventory (2.2 – 2.5) 12%
Absorption (84% - 79%) 6%
Month over Month

8. Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold % of MKT
Temecula 351 89% 138 92% 0 0% 3 2% 5 1% 2 1%
Murrieta 396 91% 160 87% 2 0% 0 0% 8 2% 3 2%
Wildomar 84 92% 20 80% 1 1% 3 12% 1 1% 0 0%
Lake Elsinore 256 93% 91 95% 2 1% 2 2% 5 2% 1 1%
Menifee 341 94% 162 95% 3 1% 0 0% 8 2% 2 1%
Canyon Lake 84 98% 36 97% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Hemet 402 93% 129 93% 3 1% 1 1% 11 3% 1 1%
San Jacinto 134 89% 66 92% 0 0% 0 0% 4 3% 0 0%
Perris 112 91% 68 97% 2 2% 1 1% 2 2% 0 0%
Regional
Average 2160 92% 870 92% 13 1% 10 1% 44 2% 9 1%
September 2019 Market Activity
By Sales Type
Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale
City Median Sold $ Average Sold $ Average SqFt Bed Bath YrBlt
Temecula $489,900 $551,360 2,499 4 3 1997
Murrieta $459,900 $490,532 2,590 4 3 2000
Wildomar $407,000 $415,844 2,332 4 3 1998
Lake Elsinore $391,000 $390,055 2,189 4 3 1999
Menifee $366,912 $369,060 1,997 3 3 1999
Canyon Lake $515,000 $535,751 2,419 4 3 1989
Hemet $285,000 $291,345 1,809 3 2 1987
San Jacinto $310,000 $303,854 2,099 4 3 2002
Perris $339,200 $343,175 1,858 4 3 1997
Your 'Average' House, September 2019
By City
Source: CRMLS

9. No recession forecast here.

11. A few select slides from
our recent state meetings.
No recession forecast here.

19. Riverside County holds a 10%+ housing advantage over our
primary feed areas – LA, Orange, & San Diego Counties

20. A majority renter community fundamentally alters public policy.

23. 0.0% MTM
4.8% YTY
-0.1% MTM
-4.0% YTD
-2.9% MTM
-10.2% YTY
3.1% MTM
4.8% YTY
For SF Detached Homes
Trends At A Glance For: August 2019
Median Time on Market
33 Days
Home Sales
+2.7% YTY
Median Price
$420,000
Unsold Inventory
3.4 Months
For SF Detached Homes
For SF Detached Homes
For SF Detached Homes
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research & Economics
Alameda County Market Update
$360,000
$370,000
$380,000
$390,000
$400,000
$410,000
$420,000
$430,000
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
525 S. Virgil Ave. Los Angeles, CA 90020 | 213-739-8200 | www.car.org/marketdata| research@car.org
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
Riverside County Market Update

24. A Glimpse of Hope as Sales Perk Up
With mortgage rates sliding to the lowest level in almost
three years, housing markets in California kicked off the
second half of the year with a bit of a momentum. The
statewide existing home sales increased year-over-year
for the first time since April 2018, while sales at the state
level climbed back above the 400,000 benchmark and
reached the highest level in 15 months. The number of
existing single-family home sales was up 5.6 percent from
June, up 1.1 percent from July 2018, but remained down
year-to-date by 4.9 percent from the same time frame last
year.
Home sales remained soft in the bottom and the top end
price segments as both declined year-over-year, while the
rest of the price points improved from last year. Sales
below $300,000 declined by 8 percent from last July
primarily due to supply constraint, and sales $2 million
and up dropped 1.4 percent likely because of affordability
issues.
On the supply side, the state unsold inventory index
dipped in July 2019 to 3.2 months from last year’s 3.3
months. It was the first drop since April 2018. The dip in
the index was attributed to both an increase in sales and
a decrease in active listings. While home sales increased
for the first time in over a year, the state housing supply
also had its first decline since March 2018. Active listings
fell 2.1 percent from July 2018, after increasing year-over-
year for 15 consecutive months.
The supply condition in the more affordable markets
continues to tighten up, as there were fewer homes for
sale in the sub $500k market in July. The number of
active listings priced below $300k decreased 14.8 percent
and those priced between $300k and $500k also dipped
7.8 percent. Contrarily, the number of properties priced
at or above $750k increased modestly in the latest month,
as high-end markets continued to soften.
The state median price continued to grow on a year-over-
year basis, but the record-setting price streak was
snapped after registering new highs consecutively for
three months. The median price of existing single-family
homes in California remained above $600,000 for the
fourth consecutive month since April 2019 but dipped
slightly to $607,990 from the prior month’s $610,720.
However, this is still a 2.8 percent increase from the same
month of last year. While the yearly growth rate of the
state median price is the highest recorded in the last
three months, it remained soft compared to late 2018.
The year-over-year growth rate for the first seven months
in 2019 averaged only 1.9 percent, compared to 8.4
percent in 2018 and 6.6 percent in 2017.
Softer prices coupled with this year’s lower interest rates
caused the monthly payment on the median-priced home
to fall for the fifth month in a row. The pocketbook
implications of this trend, which enables homebuyers to
save hundreds of dollars per month on the same home,
or potentially consider a slightly more expensive home for
the same monthly cost, will be important during the
second half of 2019. Combined with the long-term
benefits of homeownership on personal wealth and
quality of life, 2019 is still a great time to buy a home for
the long haul.
Brought to you by:
Gene Wunderlich
REALTOR®
1st Action Real
Estate
39785 Golden
Rod Road
Temecula, CA
Office: (951) 587-8542
Cellular: (951) 205-1911
Email: GENE@1stACTIONREALESTATE.COM
Website:
http://WWW.SOUTHWESTCALIFORNIAHOMES.COM
DRE License: 01182104