Regional housing data and forecast

1. The Voice for Real Estate

2. Regional Demographics

3. Murrieta/Temecula Demographics
• 70% young families/professional
• 40% have Associate degree or higher
• Higher median and average income than Riverside County/California State
• Slightly younger than Riverside County/California State
• +/- 80% homeownership rate across top tapestry segments
• 50% diversity index across top tapestry segments

4. National recession
Ended 6/09
SoCal recession
Ended 9/10
That’s the good news –
We should stop here.
Blast from the Past
From my presentation to MTG in 2011

5. Our Region at a glance

6. Year-to-Date SFR Sales
11%

7. Year-to-Date SFR Median Price
15%
57%

8. Our Region at a glance
$707,108
$660,354

9. Our BIGGEST problem

10. How our market has changed

11. Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold
% of
MKT Active
% of
MKT Sold % of MKT
Temecula 68 92% 137 93% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 2 1%
Murrieta 81 91% 143 91% 1 1% 0 0% 0 0% 2 1%
Wildomar 12 100% 33 97% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Lake Elsinore 47 96% 77 97% 0 0% 0 0% 1 2% 1 1%
Menifee 77 95% 134 98% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Canyon Lake 26 100% 21 95% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 5%
Hemet 109 96% 112 95% 0 0% 0 0% 1 1% 0 0%
San Jacinto 41 95% 52 100% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Perris 30 100% 39 95% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 2%
Regional
Average
491 95% 748 95% 1 0% 0 0% 2 0% 7 0.89%
February 2021 Market Activity
By Sales Type
Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale
How our market has changed

12. California Housing Market Outlook

13. U.S. Economic Outlook

14. Outmigration/Affordability Challenges

15. What’s coming down the road?
• Continued LOW interest rates (FED)
• End of eviction moratoriums (tenants)
• Who pays the tab?
• Rental availability?
• Inventory to sell?
• Foreclosures?
• End of forbearance/deferral program
• 6.48 million households have entered a forbearance plan
• 2,543,000 (39%) are current on their payments and have left the program
• 625,000 (9%) have paid off their mortgages
• 434,000 (7%) have negotiated a repayment plan and have left the program
• 2,254,000 (35%) have extended their original forbearance plan
• 512,000 (8%) are still in their original forbearance plan
• 116,000 (2%) have left the program and are still behind on payments
• Most owners still have significant equity
• Bank don’t want a repeat of 2008 - 2010