SnapVest is a mobile app that makes investing easy and social by allowing users to make directional stock picks from their phone. The app is designed based on principles of behavioral finance and psychology, including concepts like mental accounting, herd behavior, overreaction, illusion of control, and overconfidence, in order to trigger biases that may influence investing behavior. Users can view what other investors are doing and quickly make up/down picks on stocks within a countdown window.
Capital bias reducing human error in capital decision makingsodhi3
The US Navy improved its capital planning process to reduce biases by setting aggressive energy goals to source 50% of energy from alternatives by 2020. When field managers developed capital requests, the Navy Installations Command organized the process to align spending with these energy goals. Specifically, it established a scoring framework linking requests to specific, observable metrics related to the goals, providing consistency and minimizing biases compared to past practices that relied on tiers lacking specificity. This helped achieve a broader view aligning all requests with the Navy's requirements.
This paper examines professional investors can apply the principles within and around Behavioural Finance to maximise investment skill and minimise any negative impact of behavioural bias.
This document discusses how behavioral biases can impact risky decision making. It focuses on three biases: overconfidence bias, confirmation bias, and gambler's fallacy bias. The author proposes researching the simultaneous effects of these three biases on rational decision making in the stock market. A theoretical framework is presented showing the relationships between overconfidence bias, confirmation bias, gambler's fallacy bias, and decision making. The author plans to survey individual investors to test for these biases and their impacts, and will use correlation and chi-square tests to analyze the results. The goal is to increase understanding of how behavioral elements can distort individual decision making.
Behavioral finance, heuristics and marketing A.W. Berry
Economic and financial heuristics explain how people's money related decision making is influenced by psychology and sociological trends. This is relevant in the marketing profession and to corporate strategists because purchase decisions, stock market investing and other financial decision making is linked to consumer behavior.
Emotions Affect Markets in Predictable Ways: Behavioral Finance and Sentiment...Cristian Bissattini
Financial markets are not purely rational. Emotions play a large part in stock pricing. H2O Sentiment Analysis captures these emotions, the “animal spirits” coined by Keynes, through social media post messages.
We employ a novel way to capture and quantify sentiment based on authors' credibility, namely tracking the accuracy of past recommendations. Our results provide evidence that there is strong and useful information on investor sentiment and likely stock market movements.
Our research (done in collaboration with the Università della Svizzera italiana) has demonstrated that we can use this information in order to make predictions about stock price changes and to implement trading strategies based on sentiment analysis that perform, on average, better than traditional investment strategies like Buy and Hold or Moving Averages.
Investors have shown strong interest in "smart beta" strategies, which aim to capture excess returns by tilting portfolios toward certain equity factors like value, size, and momentum. However, no single factor consistently outperforms, and reliance on a single factor often results in periods of underperformance. A more prudent approach is to take diversified exposure to multiple factors through a "smart beta" portfolio. This helps balance underperforming factors against outperforming ones and can produce a smoother return pattern. Still, "smart beta" strategies are not immune to downturns and their success ultimately depends on the overall stock market's performance.
Capital bias reducing human error in capital decision makingsodhi3
The US Navy improved its capital planning process to reduce biases by setting aggressive energy goals to source 50% of energy from alternatives by 2020. When field managers developed capital requests, the Navy Installations Command organized the process to align spending with these energy goals. Specifically, it established a scoring framework linking requests to specific, observable metrics related to the goals, providing consistency and minimizing biases compared to past practices that relied on tiers lacking specificity. This helped achieve a broader view aligning all requests with the Navy's requirements.
This paper examines professional investors can apply the principles within and around Behavioural Finance to maximise investment skill and minimise any negative impact of behavioural bias.
This document discusses how behavioral biases can impact risky decision making. It focuses on three biases: overconfidence bias, confirmation bias, and gambler's fallacy bias. The author proposes researching the simultaneous effects of these three biases on rational decision making in the stock market. A theoretical framework is presented showing the relationships between overconfidence bias, confirmation bias, gambler's fallacy bias, and decision making. The author plans to survey individual investors to test for these biases and their impacts, and will use correlation and chi-square tests to analyze the results. The goal is to increase understanding of how behavioral elements can distort individual decision making.
Behavioral finance, heuristics and marketing A.W. Berry
Economic and financial heuristics explain how people's money related decision making is influenced by psychology and sociological trends. This is relevant in the marketing profession and to corporate strategists because purchase decisions, stock market investing and other financial decision making is linked to consumer behavior.
Emotions Affect Markets in Predictable Ways: Behavioral Finance and Sentiment...Cristian Bissattini
Financial markets are not purely rational. Emotions play a large part in stock pricing. H2O Sentiment Analysis captures these emotions, the “animal spirits” coined by Keynes, through social media post messages.
We employ a novel way to capture and quantify sentiment based on authors' credibility, namely tracking the accuracy of past recommendations. Our results provide evidence that there is strong and useful information on investor sentiment and likely stock market movements.
Our research (done in collaboration with the Università della Svizzera italiana) has demonstrated that we can use this information in order to make predictions about stock price changes and to implement trading strategies based on sentiment analysis that perform, on average, better than traditional investment strategies like Buy and Hold or Moving Averages.
Investors have shown strong interest in "smart beta" strategies, which aim to capture excess returns by tilting portfolios toward certain equity factors like value, size, and momentum. However, no single factor consistently outperforms, and reliance on a single factor often results in periods of underperformance. A more prudent approach is to take diversified exposure to multiple factors through a "smart beta" portfolio. This helps balance underperforming factors against outperforming ones and can produce a smoother return pattern. Still, "smart beta" strategies are not immune to downturns and their success ultimately depends on the overall stock market's performance.
Behavioral finance acknowledges that investors are not perfectly rational and takes into account psychological factors that influence behavior. Some common behavioral quirks exhibited by investors include overconfidence, loss aversion, anchoring, regret, and herding behavior. While laboratory experiments show evidence of these quirks, questions remain about whether they apply outside the lab and how they aggregate in financial markets. Herding behavior, where investors follow the actions of others, can potentially explain bubbles when many investors exhibit the same behavioral biases.
Prudent Capital Allocation - My Investment ThesisHely Chavan
The document provides advice for long-term investors on how to deploy capital rationally and avoid common behavioral biases. It argues that most money managers will fail to beat the market average due to mathematical laws. It also contends that hyperactive markets primarily benefit financial intermediaries, not investors. The document recommends index funds for average investors seeking market returns, but also notes that patience and rationality can allow some investors to take advantage of market inefficiencies and outperform indexes over the long run.
A Short Guide for Financial Advisors in Helping their Client’s to Better Unde...James Orth
This document provides a summary of common behavioral investing flaws that financial advisors can help clients understand. It discusses concepts like overconfidence, herd mentality, and loss aversion that can lead investors to make irrational decisions. The summary recommends that advisors prepare clients for emotional market reactions by creating predetermined investing strategies. It also suggests advisors educate clients on the benefits of investing cautiously when others are overly optimistic and investing boldly when others are overly pessimistic. Overall, the document stresses the importance of advisors understanding behavioral biases so they can structure clients' portfolios rationally despite emotional tendencies.
This document discusses various types of investors and behavioral finance theories. It describes savers, speculators, bull investors, bear investors, and specialists. It then explains prospect theory, regret theory, anchoring, and over-and-under reaction. Prospect theory shows how people assess risk differently based on potential gains or losses. Regret theory discusses avoiding regret when investments decline. Anchoring refers to relying on recent prices. Over-and-under reaction means overestimating success and underestimating risks. The document provides examples for each theory.
This document summarizes a presentation given to the Product Tank in Kansas City on unconscious choice and product management. It discusses how human decision making relies on mental shortcuts or heuristics that can lead to biases. It outlines several cognitive biases and heuristics, like the planning fallacy and halo effect, that can negatively impact product decisions if not accounted for. The presentation advocates using slow, deliberate thinking to overcome biases by tactics like considering alternative hypotheses, seeking outside perspectives, and separating ideas to avoid halo effects of order. The goal is to move from being a victim of cognitive biases to intentionally using critical thinking techniques to improve product decisions.
The document discusses how behavioral finance is important for financial planners and investors to understand. It begins by contrasting traditional finance, which assumes rational behavior, with behavioral finance, which incorporates psychological factors. Investors exhibit biases like the disposition effect of selling winners too early and holding losers too long. Planners can help by framing investments in terms of future spending goals rather than just returns. The document provides several other examples of biases, like familiarity bias, and suggests how understanding these behaviors can help planners develop strategies to improve clients' decision making. Overall, the document emphasizes that financial decisions are influenced by emotions and cognitive errors, so behavioral insights are crucial for advisors.
behavioral finance:theories, issues and challenges Kamaljit Singh
1. The document discusses recent trends in behavioural finance, including nudging policies like prize-linked savings accounts, mental accounting, cognitive biases, framing issues, anchoring, subconscious decision-making, and impact investing.
2. It also covers the risky shift effect, changes in sociological behavior, algorithmic trading, and the relationship between risk tolerance and risk perception.
3. Recent trends in behavioural finance examine how human psychology and social factors influence financial decision-making in areas like risk-taking, framing, memory biases, and subconscious preferences.
This document summarizes an annual seminar presentation given by Sushila, a doctoral research scholar. The presentation outlined her research on the impact of behavioural biases on individual equity investors in the National Capital Region of India. The presentation introduced behavioural finance concepts and highlighted key behavioral biases like anchoring bias, availability bias, and loss aversion. It described Sushila's literature review process, identification of 17 biases, and development of a conceptual model relating demographic factors and biases to investment decisions. The presentation concluded with details about Sushila's questionnaire to measure biases and a paper she published on applying behavioral finance to stock market investment decisions.
As an Investment Advisor, you will have to play an important role in enabling your clients to reach their financial goals without the emotions of fear or greed playing havoc. It is essential to understand Behavioural Finance, especially Heuristics and Biases that creep into financial decision making.
Abstract
The idea of an Efficient Market first came from the French mathematician Louis Bachelier in 1900: « The theory of speculation ».
Bachelier argued that there is no useful information in past stock prices that can help predicting future prices and proposed a theory for financial options’ valuation based on Fourier’s law and Brownian’s motions (time series).
Bachelier’s work get popular in the 60s during the computer’s era.
In 1965, Eugene Fama published a dissertation arguing for the random walk hypothesis (Stock market’s prices evolve randomly: prices cannot be predicted using past data).
In 1970, Fama published a review of the theory and empirical evidences
The EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis): Financial markets are efficient at processing information. Consequently, the prices of securities is a correct representation of all information available at any time.
Weak:
Not possible to earn superior profits (risk adjusted) based on the knowledge of past prices and returns.
Semi-strong:
Not possible to earn superior profits using all information publicly available.
Strong:
Not possible to earn superior profit using all publicly and inside information.
The CAPM describes the relationship between market risks and expected return for a security i (also called cost of equity), E(Re_i):
Re_i = Rf – Bi(Rm – Rf)
With:
Rf = Risk free rate (typically government bond rate)
Rm = Expected return for the whole market
Bi = The volatility risk of the security i compared to the whole market
(Rm – Rf) is consequently the market risk premium
According to the EMH, for a well-diversified portfolio, expected returns can only reflect those of the market as a whole. Consequently, in the CAPM formula, It would involves that for a diversified-enough portfolio: β = 1 so Re = Rm
Investors want to value companies before making investment decisions.
A typical way to do so is to use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method:
See also: Prospect theory, disposition effect, heuristic, framing, mental accounting, Home bias, representativeness, conservatism, availability, greater fool theory, self attribution theory, anchoring, ambiguity aversion, winner's curse, managerial miscalibration and misconception, Equity premium puzzle, market anomalies, excess volatility, Bubbles, herding, limited liabilities, Fama French three 3 factors model.
Barry Ritholtz Presentation on Behavioral Economics (CFA Toronto 2013)Chand Sooran
A good introduction to key issues in behavioral economics from Barry Ritholtz in a presentation made to the CFA Toronto Group. Pithy, entertaining and informative.
- Mohammed's risk tolerance score is 66, placing him in Risk Group 6, which is very tolerant of risk. However, he estimated his score would be higher.
- Those in Risk Group 6 are prepared to take medium to large risks with investments and prefer portfolios with a higher risk/return profile. Mohammed differs in that he would choose the lowest risk portfolio option.
- A 33% drop in the total value of his investments would make him feel uncomfortable, in line with others in Risk Group 6.
Behavioral finance is a field that combines psychology and traditional finance to explain irrational financial behaviors. Standard finance theories failed to explain market anomalies like crashes and bubbles. Behavioral finance proposes that people are not perfectly rational due to cognitive biases and emotions. Some biases explored in behavioral finance include prospect theory, which shows people weigh potential losses more than equivalent gains; anchoring, where recent prices unduly influence investment decisions; and overconfidence, which causes investors to underestimate risks. By understanding these biases, behavioral finance provides frameworks to better understand unpredictable market movements.
The counsel of an advisor or financial planner, well researched and rational, often runs
headlong into the strongly held yet irrational beliefs of the client. So, herein YCharts
explores six widely held financial biases and offers for each one a chart designed to explain
the bias and prompt a productive discussion with the client.
Money Illusion. Loss Aversion. Recency Bias. Overconfidence (Self-Belief). Disposition
Effect. Anchoring (Get-Back-It is). YCharts senior contributing editor Carla Fried explains
these half-dozen examples of emotion-trumps-reason. Carla has covered investing for more
than 25 years, writing for The New York Times, Bloomberg.com and Money Magazine. Her
twice-weekly YCharts columns are available at: ycharts.com/analysis
Behavioral finance integrates psychology into traditional finance to explain why people make irrational financial decisions. It studies concepts like representativeness heuristic, loss aversion, fear of regret, herding, anchoring, illusion of control, and prospect theory. Behavioral finance recognizes that investors do not always act rationally as assumed by conventional finance. It provides insights into common cognitive biases and established behaviors that influence investment decisions.
Bad Service Secured Options - Top 20 Stock Investing TipsSecuredoptions
This document provides 20 tips for stock investing. Some key tips include keeping investments simple by focusing on companies with economic advantages and a long-term horizon. Investors should have reasonable expectations for returns in the 10-12% range annually and be prepared to hold investments for long periods of time despite short-term volatility. Evaluating the fundamentals and economics of a business should take priority over short-term price fluctuations or management changes.
Mental accounting refers to how people separate and evaluate their money mentally based on subjective factors like the source of funds, intended use, and whether gains or losses are being realized. People do not always treat money as fungible or interchangeable due to mental accounting biases. For example, people are more willing to spend windfall gains like bonuses on unnecessary purchases rather than important expenses. They also take more risks with investment accounts than savings earmarked for emergencies. To avoid suboptimal financial decisions due to mental accounting biases, people should treat all funds interchangeably, have a coherent investment strategy, and avoid overspending leftover budgets.
The document describes a vacation at a river house where various tasks needed to be completed including repairing the dumpster foundation and moving rocks. James planned to remove the old foundation, move rocks from one pile to another using tools and vehicles, dealing with obstacles, and had a backup plan. The tasks were completed and the vacation came to an end.
Behavioral finance acknowledges that investors are not perfectly rational and takes into account psychological factors that influence behavior. Some common behavioral quirks exhibited by investors include overconfidence, loss aversion, anchoring, regret, and herding behavior. While laboratory experiments show evidence of these quirks, questions remain about whether they apply outside the lab and how they aggregate in financial markets. Herding behavior, where investors follow the actions of others, can potentially explain bubbles when many investors exhibit the same behavioral biases.
Prudent Capital Allocation - My Investment ThesisHely Chavan
The document provides advice for long-term investors on how to deploy capital rationally and avoid common behavioral biases. It argues that most money managers will fail to beat the market average due to mathematical laws. It also contends that hyperactive markets primarily benefit financial intermediaries, not investors. The document recommends index funds for average investors seeking market returns, but also notes that patience and rationality can allow some investors to take advantage of market inefficiencies and outperform indexes over the long run.
A Short Guide for Financial Advisors in Helping their Client’s to Better Unde...James Orth
This document provides a summary of common behavioral investing flaws that financial advisors can help clients understand. It discusses concepts like overconfidence, herd mentality, and loss aversion that can lead investors to make irrational decisions. The summary recommends that advisors prepare clients for emotional market reactions by creating predetermined investing strategies. It also suggests advisors educate clients on the benefits of investing cautiously when others are overly optimistic and investing boldly when others are overly pessimistic. Overall, the document stresses the importance of advisors understanding behavioral biases so they can structure clients' portfolios rationally despite emotional tendencies.
This document discusses various types of investors and behavioral finance theories. It describes savers, speculators, bull investors, bear investors, and specialists. It then explains prospect theory, regret theory, anchoring, and over-and-under reaction. Prospect theory shows how people assess risk differently based on potential gains or losses. Regret theory discusses avoiding regret when investments decline. Anchoring refers to relying on recent prices. Over-and-under reaction means overestimating success and underestimating risks. The document provides examples for each theory.
This document summarizes a presentation given to the Product Tank in Kansas City on unconscious choice and product management. It discusses how human decision making relies on mental shortcuts or heuristics that can lead to biases. It outlines several cognitive biases and heuristics, like the planning fallacy and halo effect, that can negatively impact product decisions if not accounted for. The presentation advocates using slow, deliberate thinking to overcome biases by tactics like considering alternative hypotheses, seeking outside perspectives, and separating ideas to avoid halo effects of order. The goal is to move from being a victim of cognitive biases to intentionally using critical thinking techniques to improve product decisions.
The document discusses how behavioral finance is important for financial planners and investors to understand. It begins by contrasting traditional finance, which assumes rational behavior, with behavioral finance, which incorporates psychological factors. Investors exhibit biases like the disposition effect of selling winners too early and holding losers too long. Planners can help by framing investments in terms of future spending goals rather than just returns. The document provides several other examples of biases, like familiarity bias, and suggests how understanding these behaviors can help planners develop strategies to improve clients' decision making. Overall, the document emphasizes that financial decisions are influenced by emotions and cognitive errors, so behavioral insights are crucial for advisors.
behavioral finance:theories, issues and challenges Kamaljit Singh
1. The document discusses recent trends in behavioural finance, including nudging policies like prize-linked savings accounts, mental accounting, cognitive biases, framing issues, anchoring, subconscious decision-making, and impact investing.
2. It also covers the risky shift effect, changes in sociological behavior, algorithmic trading, and the relationship between risk tolerance and risk perception.
3. Recent trends in behavioural finance examine how human psychology and social factors influence financial decision-making in areas like risk-taking, framing, memory biases, and subconscious preferences.
This document summarizes an annual seminar presentation given by Sushila, a doctoral research scholar. The presentation outlined her research on the impact of behavioural biases on individual equity investors in the National Capital Region of India. The presentation introduced behavioural finance concepts and highlighted key behavioral biases like anchoring bias, availability bias, and loss aversion. It described Sushila's literature review process, identification of 17 biases, and development of a conceptual model relating demographic factors and biases to investment decisions. The presentation concluded with details about Sushila's questionnaire to measure biases and a paper she published on applying behavioral finance to stock market investment decisions.
As an Investment Advisor, you will have to play an important role in enabling your clients to reach their financial goals without the emotions of fear or greed playing havoc. It is essential to understand Behavioural Finance, especially Heuristics and Biases that creep into financial decision making.
Abstract
The idea of an Efficient Market first came from the French mathematician Louis Bachelier in 1900: « The theory of speculation ».
Bachelier argued that there is no useful information in past stock prices that can help predicting future prices and proposed a theory for financial options’ valuation based on Fourier’s law and Brownian’s motions (time series).
Bachelier’s work get popular in the 60s during the computer’s era.
In 1965, Eugene Fama published a dissertation arguing for the random walk hypothesis (Stock market’s prices evolve randomly: prices cannot be predicted using past data).
In 1970, Fama published a review of the theory and empirical evidences
The EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis): Financial markets are efficient at processing information. Consequently, the prices of securities is a correct representation of all information available at any time.
Weak:
Not possible to earn superior profits (risk adjusted) based on the knowledge of past prices and returns.
Semi-strong:
Not possible to earn superior profits using all information publicly available.
Strong:
Not possible to earn superior profit using all publicly and inside information.
The CAPM describes the relationship between market risks and expected return for a security i (also called cost of equity), E(Re_i):
Re_i = Rf – Bi(Rm – Rf)
With:
Rf = Risk free rate (typically government bond rate)
Rm = Expected return for the whole market
Bi = The volatility risk of the security i compared to the whole market
(Rm – Rf) is consequently the market risk premium
According to the EMH, for a well-diversified portfolio, expected returns can only reflect those of the market as a whole. Consequently, in the CAPM formula, It would involves that for a diversified-enough portfolio: β = 1 so Re = Rm
Investors want to value companies before making investment decisions.
A typical way to do so is to use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method:
See also: Prospect theory, disposition effect, heuristic, framing, mental accounting, Home bias, representativeness, conservatism, availability, greater fool theory, self attribution theory, anchoring, ambiguity aversion, winner's curse, managerial miscalibration and misconception, Equity premium puzzle, market anomalies, excess volatility, Bubbles, herding, limited liabilities, Fama French three 3 factors model.
Barry Ritholtz Presentation on Behavioral Economics (CFA Toronto 2013)Chand Sooran
A good introduction to key issues in behavioral economics from Barry Ritholtz in a presentation made to the CFA Toronto Group. Pithy, entertaining and informative.
- Mohammed's risk tolerance score is 66, placing him in Risk Group 6, which is very tolerant of risk. However, he estimated his score would be higher.
- Those in Risk Group 6 are prepared to take medium to large risks with investments and prefer portfolios with a higher risk/return profile. Mohammed differs in that he would choose the lowest risk portfolio option.
- A 33% drop in the total value of his investments would make him feel uncomfortable, in line with others in Risk Group 6.
Behavioral finance is a field that combines psychology and traditional finance to explain irrational financial behaviors. Standard finance theories failed to explain market anomalies like crashes and bubbles. Behavioral finance proposes that people are not perfectly rational due to cognitive biases and emotions. Some biases explored in behavioral finance include prospect theory, which shows people weigh potential losses more than equivalent gains; anchoring, where recent prices unduly influence investment decisions; and overconfidence, which causes investors to underestimate risks. By understanding these biases, behavioral finance provides frameworks to better understand unpredictable market movements.
The counsel of an advisor or financial planner, well researched and rational, often runs
headlong into the strongly held yet irrational beliefs of the client. So, herein YCharts
explores six widely held financial biases and offers for each one a chart designed to explain
the bias and prompt a productive discussion with the client.
Money Illusion. Loss Aversion. Recency Bias. Overconfidence (Self-Belief). Disposition
Effect. Anchoring (Get-Back-It is). YCharts senior contributing editor Carla Fried explains
these half-dozen examples of emotion-trumps-reason. Carla has covered investing for more
than 25 years, writing for The New York Times, Bloomberg.com and Money Magazine. Her
twice-weekly YCharts columns are available at: ycharts.com/analysis
Behavioral finance integrates psychology into traditional finance to explain why people make irrational financial decisions. It studies concepts like representativeness heuristic, loss aversion, fear of regret, herding, anchoring, illusion of control, and prospect theory. Behavioral finance recognizes that investors do not always act rationally as assumed by conventional finance. It provides insights into common cognitive biases and established behaviors that influence investment decisions.
Bad Service Secured Options - Top 20 Stock Investing TipsSecuredoptions
This document provides 20 tips for stock investing. Some key tips include keeping investments simple by focusing on companies with economic advantages and a long-term horizon. Investors should have reasonable expectations for returns in the 10-12% range annually and be prepared to hold investments for long periods of time despite short-term volatility. Evaluating the fundamentals and economics of a business should take priority over short-term price fluctuations or management changes.
Mental accounting refers to how people separate and evaluate their money mentally based on subjective factors like the source of funds, intended use, and whether gains or losses are being realized. People do not always treat money as fungible or interchangeable due to mental accounting biases. For example, people are more willing to spend windfall gains like bonuses on unnecessary purchases rather than important expenses. They also take more risks with investment accounts than savings earmarked for emergencies. To avoid suboptimal financial decisions due to mental accounting biases, people should treat all funds interchangeably, have a coherent investment strategy, and avoid overspending leftover budgets.
The document describes a vacation at a river house where various tasks needed to be completed including repairing the dumpster foundation and moving rocks. James planned to remove the old foundation, move rocks from one pile to another using tools and vehicles, dealing with obstacles, and had a backup plan. The tasks were completed and the vacation came to an end.
New Microsoft Office Power Point Presentationguest6155cd
Reliance Tax Saver Fund is a mutual fund scheme that aims to generate long-term capital appreciation through a portfolio invested predominantly in equities and equity-related instruments. It provides tax benefits under Section 80C and offers personal accident death insurance. The fund has a below average risk profile and average returns, and is professionally managed by India's top asset management company whose other funds are outperforming peers.
Mutual funds pool money from many investors and invest it in a variety of financial instruments to generate returns. They allow investors to own shares in a variety of companies and asset classes with a single investment. A brief history noted the origins of mutual funds in India in 1964 with UTI and their later expansion in 1987 with public sector banks/insurers and 1993 with private sector players. Key entities involved in operating a mutual fund include sponsors, trustees, asset management companies, custodians, and registrars.
This document welcomes attendees to the ESUG2016 conference and provides information about the conference events and activities. It summarizes that ESUG is a non-profit organization with the goal of promoting Smalltalk. It sponsors various projects, publications, lab visits and lectures. At ESUG2016 there were 126 participants and 15 student volunteers. Highlights included 28 papers submitted to IWST and a social dinner event. Information about schedules, the technology awards, showing projects, and wifi access is also provided.
More XP-rience
Video: https://youtu.be/DoFrzbpECCY
Thu, August 25, 4:00pm – 4:30pm
First Name: Niall
Last Name: Ross
Email Address: nross@cincom.com
Title: More XP-rience
Type: Talk
Abstract: In the 15 years since I last presented my 'XP-rience' of
eXtreme Programming to ESUG, I've had a lot more experience: of
working in partly and wholly not-colocated teams; of how I and others
actually think while doing XP; of the disadvantages and positive
advantages of non-colocation; of what is most used and most needed in
tools. This talk will let you (and me) discover if I've learned
anything in the last decade and a half.
Bio: Niall ended his undergraduate career with two intellectual
interests: computing and the theory of relativity. A quick check of
how much commercial work was available to relativity and gravitation
theorists made him decide to do academic research in that field and
then seek a commercial job in computing, rather than the other way
round. Niall started working commercially in IT in 1985. At first, he
was assigned to designing and implementing software engineering
process improvements; only after three years did he begin significant
writing and delivery of commercial software. This experience taught
him that intelligent people can form foolish ideas about software
engineering if they have not worked at the coding coalface of real,
large commercial projects.
Learning from this, Niall spent the nineties working on software to
manage complex, rapidly changing telecoms networks. A side effect of
this work was that it taught him much about how scale and rate of
change affects software. Early in the nineties, he discovered
Smalltalk. The more he used it the more he came to recognize its power
in this area. This perception was strengthened when he spent a year
delivering a telecoms management system in Java.
At the end of the decade, Niall formed his own software company to
offer consultancy in meta-data system design, Smalltalk and agile
methods. Over the next decade, he worked on a variety of
meta-data-driven systems, mostly in the financial domain.
Niall joined the Cincom Smalltalk Engineering Team nearly eight years
ago. His first task was to lead the team that does the weekly
VisualWorks builds - an experience he likened to doing brain surgery
on yourself every Friday (e.g., "Prepare new memory for insertion,
remove old memory … uh, I can't remember what I was going to do
next!").
Currently, he leads the Glorp and Database team. He also leads the
Custom Refactoring open-source project, which he co-founded, and the
SUnit open-source project.
Lub: a DSL for Dynamic Context Oriented ProgrammingESUG
Lub is a language for dynamic context-oriented programming that allows objects to be adapted at runtime. It extends the Pharo programming language. Lub allows objects' behaviors to be freely adapted through dynamic lookup control by binding objects to meta objects that control their lookup strategy. This enables easy and controlled selection of behaviors to adapt. Issues that need further exploration include maintaining state consistency during adaptation and validating the consistency of adapted behaviors. Experiments on physical devices are also needed.
This document provides tips and guidance for beginner stock market investors. It discusses establishing long-term goals, understanding your risk tolerance, controlling your emotions, and handling the basics of investing before making your first purchase. The key tips are to set long-term goals for your investing, understand your personal risk tolerance, avoid making emotional decisions, and learn basic financial concepts and terms before investing. Diversifying your investments and starting early are also emphasized as important strategies.
1. The document summarizes research on behavioral economics and investment decision making, outlining factors that influence risk appetite and decisions like myopic loss aversion, information overload, and sunk cost bias.
2. It recommends practices for investors like continuously learning, understanding objectives and risk tolerance, comprehensively evaluating options, and not making comparisons or changing investments too frequently.
3. The conclusion urges focusing on feeling good when making important decisions and gaining a pragmatic approach through recommendations to become a cognizant long-term investor.
DNA Money - when investing keep emotions at bayv- 11 Dec 2008Shruti Jain
This document discusses how emotions like greed and fear can negatively impact investing decisions. It notes that behavioural finance research shows investors are often emotional, biased, and make irrational decisions. In bull markets, greed leads people to take on excessive risk, while bear markets cause fear that makes people sell at low prices. The author advocates keeping emotions separate from investing by maintaining a long-term, disciplined strategy and using market downturns as opportunities to buy good companies at lower prices rather than reacting fearfully.
The document discusses the emergence of behavioral finance as an alternative to traditional finance models. Traditional finance assumes rational decision-making, while behavioral finance recognizes psychological and emotional factors that can lead to irrational behavior. Key differences include traditional finance assuming perfect processing of information versus behavioral finance recognizing cognitive biases. Additionally, traditional finance sees framing as inconsequential while behavioral finance finds perceptions influenced by framing. The document then examines specific cognitive biases like representativeness, overconfidence, anchoring, ambiguity aversion, and innumeracy that impact decisions. It also discusses the concepts of prospect theory and mental accounting in relation to framing dependence.
The document evaluates the normal probability distribution's ability to quantify investment risk by analyzing daily FTSE100 data over 20 years. It finds that the normal distribution does not accurately reflect financial market risk, as there are more extreme variations than predicted. Alternative approaches are needed to account for non-normal events, behavioral risks, asset correlations, and specific risks. Investors should use multiple measures like VaR, skewness, fat tails, and betas to better understand risk rather than relying solely on the normal distribution.
The document discusses how the reflexive brain reacts intuitively to information quickly, sometimes overriding rational thinking. It introduces two cognitive biases - heuristics and overconfidence - that can cause illogical financial decisions. Heuristics involve mental shortcuts like the 1/N rule for allocating investments that overgeneralize. Overconfidence causes people to overestimate their abilities and take unnecessary risks. The document argues it is important for financial advisors to be aware of these biases to avoid mistakes and properly manage client expectations.
This document provides information from Atlantic Sun Financial Group's August 2016 newsletter. It includes three articles:
1) "Investors Are Human, Too" which discusses behavioral biases that can influence investor decisions and recommends having a long-term perspective and sticking to an investing strategy.
2) "Be Prepared to Retire in a Volatile Market" which explains sequencing risk in retirement and recommends allocating assets into short, mid, and long-term buckets and strategies for determining annual withdrawals.
3) "Understanding the Net Investment Income Tax" which provides an overview of the 3.8% Medicare surtax on net investment income that applies to certain investment income if modified adjusted gross income exceeds thresholds.
Capital biasReducing human error in capital decision-makingTawnaDelatorrejs
Capital bias
Reducing human error in capital decision-making
A report by the
Center for Integrated Research
Deloitte’s Capital Efficiency practice helps organizations make better and faster decisions by
assisting them in improving the quality of their capital allocation decisions to enhance robustness,
efficiency, and return on investment.
Capital bias
The balancing act | 2
Choreographing the optimism bias, expert bias,
and narrow framing | 3
Mitigating biases in planning: The US Navy | 7
Prioritization: Leveling the playing field | 9
Stripping away your own organization’s biases | 11
Endnotes | 12
CONTENTS
Reducing human error in capital decision-making
1
A look at the S&P 500 suggests just how dif-ficult it can be to consistently drive positive results. Take one measure, return on in-
vested capital (ROIC). In a Deloitte study, neither
the amount of capital expenditures (as a percentage
of revenue) nor the growth in capital expenditure
demonstrated any kind of meaningful correlation
with ROIC.1 Regardless of industry, individual com-
panies can often have a difficult time maintaining
high and steady returns on their investments year
over year.
Given such uncertainty in capital allocation re-
sults, it may not be surprising that more than 60
percent of finance executives say they are not con-
fident in their organization’s ability to optimally al-
locate capital.2 After all, many companies are bal-
ancing competing priorities, diverse stakeholder
interests, and a complex variety of proposals that
can make capital allocation decisions even more dif-
ficult to execute in practice.
Why is this? On paper it seems practical enough
for everyone throughout the organization to be on
the same page. In an ideal world, a company estab-
lishes the goals and priorities; then, from senior
managers to frontline employees, everyone is ex-
pected to act in a manner that supports these man-
dates.
However, behavioral science, and possibly your
own experience, suggest it’s likely not always that
simple. Individuals at any level of an organization
may be overly optimistic about certain courses of
action, rely too much on specific pieces of informa-
tion (and people), or simply interpret the objective
through too narrow a lens (that may even run coun-
ter to other views on how to achieve these goals).
Within the behavioral science field, these are
referred to as cognitive biases and they exist in
many endeavors, not just capital planning. These
same biases can explain why we are too optimistic
about our retirement portfolios, can rely solely on
the opinions of experts in matters of health, and
narrowly frame our car buying decisions based on
a single attribute, such as fuel efficiency—ignoring
safety features, price, and aesthetic design. In the
language of the behavioral sciences, these translate
into the optimism bias, expert bias, and narrow
framing, respectively.
Though these biases, an ...
This document discusses various cognitive biases that can affect investment performance. It identifies 12 common biases: overconfidence, familiarity, anchoring, confirmation bias, mental accounting, illusion of control, recency bias, hindsight bias, herd mentality, representativeness, self-attribution bias, and trend-chasing bias. These biases can cause investors to ignore evidence, become overly concentrated, rely too heavily on past information, and make decisions based on social and emotional factors rather than objective analysis. Avoiding cognitive biases allows investors to make impartial decisions based solely on available data.
This document discusses various cognitive biases that can affect investment performance. It identifies 12 common biases: overconfidence, familiarity, anchoring, confirmation bias, mental accounting, illusion of control, recency bias, hindsight bias, herd mentality, representativeness, self-attribution bias, and trend-chasing bias. These biases can cause investors to ignore evidence, become overly concentrated, rely too heavily on past information, and make decisions based on social and emotional factors rather than objective analysis. Avoiding cognitive biases allows investors to make impartial decisions based solely on available data.
The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models.
Prepublication version of paper: https://ssrn.com/abstract=265132.
The document outlines an investment philosophy that focuses on long-term compound growth rather than quick riches. It emphasizes patience and understanding principles over short-term tactics. The approach seeks high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages, predictable cash flows, and strong management rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations.
The document outlines behavioral finance concepts and how they relate to standard financial theory. It discusses how behavioral finance provides an overlay to traditional models by recognizing that investors are not perfectly rational and there are cognitive biases. It then surveys various behavioral characteristics like loss aversion, narrow framing, anchoring, and herd behavior that can influence investor decisions in systematic ways. The document emphasizes developing a long-term investment strategy and working with advisors to overcome cognitive biases.
4 active vs passive advisor insert funds flows dfa (advisor present) p. 1-3, ...Weydert Wealth Management
This excellent article contains three key graphics illustrating how average investors flow into and out of investments at the wrong times and contrasts this with the average DFA investor who remains much more consistent and disciplined.
This document discusses behavioural finance and how it differs from traditional finance theories by accounting for human psychology and irrational decision-making. It explains key concepts of behavioural finance like cognitive biases, loss aversion, and prospect theory. Specific biases discussed include confirmation bias, experiential bias, loss aversion, overconfidence, disposition bias, familiarity bias, and mental accounting. The document also provides an executive summary of a behavioural finance paper that outlines how biases can impact investment decisions.
The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
A recent behavioral finance webinar from Unified Trust delivered by Dr. Gregory Kasten. Link to the replay can be found below.
http://bit.ly/BehavioralFinanceWebinar
A Short Guide for Financial Advisors in Helping their Client’s to Better Unde...James Orth
This document provides a summary of common behavioral investing flaws that financial advisors can help clients understand. It discusses concepts like overconfidence, herd mentality, and loss aversion that can lead investors to make irrational decisions. The summary recommends that advisors prepare clients for emotional market reactions by creating predefined investing strategies. It also suggests advisors educate clients on the benefits of investing cautiously when others are overly optimistic and investing boldly when others are overly pessimistic. Overall, the document stresses the importance of advisors understanding behavioral biases so they can structure clients' portfolios, communications, and decisions in a way that mitigates the influence of emotions on investing.
Most beginner stock market investors have limited knowledge and experience, relying on a buy-and-hold strategy with only a few trades per month. However, many beginners do not understand the time commitment required for successful investing or are swayed by emotions. It is important for novice investors to set realistic objectives based on their investment timeline and risk tolerance. Maintaining an unemotional approach by focusing on company fundamentals rather than short-term price fluctuations is key to avoiding poor investment decisions as a beginner.
Behavioral finance proposes that psychology influences investment decisions and market outcomes. Unlike standard finance theory which assumes rational investors, behavioral finance recognizes that investors are not always rational and make decisions based on imperfect information. Some key concepts in behavioral finance include loss aversion, anchoring, herding behavior, and overconfidence. Behavioral biases like narrow framing and regret avoidance can also impact decisions. While arbitrage should eliminate irrational behavior, limits to arbitrage like fundamental risk and implementation costs allow anomalies to persist. Technical analysis uses patterns in stock prices based on the idea that prices adjust gradually to new information.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
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In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
2. SnapVest makes financial investments easy,
casual & social by allowing users to invest on
stock direction, directly from their mobile
phone.
3. This is a product overview of SnapVest.
We shaped our vision & product based on human psychology; we’ve
taken into consideration:
Overview
‣ Behavioral Finance.
‣ Techniques frequently used in casinos and casino games.
‣ User testing we’ve conducted.
4. Mental Accounting is
when people separate
their money into
separate accounts
based on a variety of
subjective criteria, like
the source of the
money or intent for
each account.
Mental Accounting
What is
5. Mental Accounting is
when people separate
their money into
separate accounts
based on a variety of
subjective criteria, like
the source of the
money or intent for
each account.
You have subjected yourself to a weekly lunch budget and are going to purchase a
$6 sandwich for lunch. As you are waiting in line, one of the following things occurs:
1) You find that you have a hole in your pocket and have lost $6; or 2) You buy the
sandwich, but as you plan to take a bite, you stumble and your delicious sandwich
ends up on the floor. In either case would you buy another sandwich?
Logically speaking, your answer in both scenarios should be the same; however,
because of the mental accounting bias, most people in the first scenario wouldn't
consider the lost money to be part of their lunch budget because the money had
not yet been spent. Consequently, they'd be more likely to buy another sandwich.
research
Mental Accounting
What is
6. Some investors divide their
investments between a safe and
speculative in order to prevent the
negative returns that speculative
investments may have from affecting
the entire portfolio. The problem with
such a practice is that the net wealth
will be no different than if the
investor had held one larger portfolio.
Mental Accounting
investors
7. Some investors divide their
investments between a safe and
speculative in order to prevent the
negative returns that speculative
investments may have from affecting
the entire portfolio. The problem with
such a practice is that the net wealth
will be no different than if the
investor had held one larger portfolio.
SnapVest is built on Mental Accounting Bias. We’ll communicate with
our investors that we’re their place to experiment on high risk/yield
opportunities. For that reason our delivery method is mobile and
product is simple and easy to use; we want to allow the low spectrum
of investors to invest casually, even on the go.
Mental Accounting
investors
9. Overreaction
Oftentimes,
participants in the
stock market
predictably
overreact to new
information, creating
a larger-than-
appropriate effect
on a security's price.
In the study "Does the Market Overreact?" researches
examined returns on the NYSE for a three-year period.
They separated the best 35 performing stocks into a
"winners portfolio" and the worst 35 into a "losers
portfolio". Researches then tracked each portfolio's
performance against a representative market index
for 3 years. Surprisingly, it was found that the losers
portfolio consistently beat the market index, while
the winners portfolio consistently underperformed.
The cumulative difference was almost 25% during the
3-year time span.
researchWhat is
10. Overreaction
Oftentimes,
participants in the
stock market
predictably
overreact to new
information, creating
a larger-than-
appropriate effect
on a security's price.
In the study "Does the Market Overreact?" researches
examined returns on the NYSE for a three-year period.
They separated the best 35 performing stocks into a
"winners portfolio" and the worst 35 into a "losers
portfolio". Researches then tracked each portfolio's
performance against a representative market index
for 3 years. Surprisingly, it was found that the losers
portfolio consistently beat the market index, while
the winners portfolio consistently underperformed.
The cumulative difference was almost 25% during the
3-year time span.
researchWhat is
We leverage Overreaction
by choosing investment
opportunities the market is
most likely to overreact to.
By doing so, we could
create high level of
engagement amongst over
reactors and generate high
returns from the
overreaction effect.
11. Gambling games are
designed in such a way that
the gamblers feel as if they
are in control and that
failure to win is accredited
to “near misses“. Personal
choice is an additional
factor contributing to the
illusion of control.
What is
Feeling in Control
12. Gambling games are
designed in such a way that
the gamblers feel as if they
are in control and that
failure to win is accredited
to “near misses“. Personal
choice is an additional
factor contributing to the
illusion of control.
Lotteries allow players to pick their own
numbers, slot machines offer bonus
screens where the player will need to
pick X of Y in order to determine the
amount of money or spins they win.
researchWhat is
Feeling in Control
13. Gambling games are
designed in such a way that
the gamblers feel as if they
are in control and that
failure to win is accredited
to “near misses“. Personal
choice is an additional
factor contributing to the
illusion of control.
Lotteries allow players to pick their own
numbers, slot machines offer bonus
screens where the player will need to
pick X of Y in order to determine the
amount of money or spins they win.
researchWhat is
SnapVest let users feel in
control by letting them
invest on stock direction.
As oppose to hedge funds
or other financial
providers– in SnapVest
Investors are empowered
to make investment
decisions.
Feeling in Control
15. This is SnapVest’s main
page.
This is the company in
question and recent
happenings.
16. Most casino games are
leveraging the fact
that the brain is
hardwired to like
short-term
gratification (leading
to quick and easy
decisions).
17. Most casino games are
leveraging the fact
that the brain is
hardwired to like
short-term
gratification (leading
to quick and easy
decisions).
To invest, the user
needs to simply decide
whether the stock in
question will go up or
down.
18. Once deciding on stock
direction, another part
of the screen will
appear from beneath.
Then, the investor
could decide on an
investment amount
and approve the trade.
And that’s all it takes.
19. This is a countdown; at
the end of the time
frame, the investment
opportunity will be
closed and investors
couldn’t invest
anymore (that’s when
we execute the trades).
The countdown is
counting backwards to
create a sense of
urgency to invest.
20. What is
Herd Behavior
Herd behavior is the tendency of individuals to mimic the actions (rational or irrational) of a larger group.
There are a couple of explanations for herd behavior. The first is the social pressure of conformity. The second
reason is the common rationale that it's unlikely that such a large group could be wrong. After all, even if you
are convinced that a particular idea or course of action is irrational or incorrect, you might still follow the herd,
believing they know something that you don't. This is especially prevalent in situations in which an individual
has very little experience.
21. To trigger the herd
behavior bias, we put
other investors’
behavior front and
center.
22. To trigger the herd
behavior bias, we put
other investors’
behavior front and
center.
Data we present:
•Distribution of other
investors.
•Average investment
amount per side
(up/down) as an
indication for
confidence.
•Accuracy of past
investment as an
indication of luck &
knowledge.
24. Confidence implies
realistically trusting in
one's abilities, while
overconfidence implies
an overly optimistic
assessment of one's
knowledge or control
over a situation.
What is
Overconfidence
25. Confidence implies
realistically trusting in
one's abilities, while
overconfidence implies
an overly optimistic
assessment of one's
knowledge or control
over a situation.
researchWhat is
Overconfidence
A 2006 study entitled "Behaving Badly” found that 74% of the professional fund
managers surveyed believed that they had delivered above-average performance.
Of the remaining 26% surveyed, the majority viewed themselves as average.
Incredibly, almost 100% of the survey group believed that their job performance
was average or better. In terms of investing, overconfidence can be detrimental to
your stock-picking ability. Overconfident investors generally conduct more trades
than their less-confident counterparts, because they tend to believe they are better
than others at choosing the best stocks and best times to enter/exit a position.
Unfortunately, overconfident investors, on average, receive significantly lower
yields than the market.
26. In the gambler's fallacy, an
individual erroneously believes
that the onset of a certain
random event is less likely to
happen following an event or a
series of events. This line of
thinking is incorrect because past
events do not change the
probability that certain events
will occur in the future.
What is
Gambler’s Fallacy
27. In the gambler's fallacy, an
individual erroneously believes
that the onset of a certain
random event is less likely to
happen following an event or a
series of events. This line of
thinking is incorrect because past
events do not change the
probability that certain events
will occur in the future.
What is
Gambler’s Fallacy
investors
Consider a series of 20 coin flips that have all landed with the "heads" side
up. Under the gambler's fallacy, a person might predict that the next coin
flip is more likely to land with the "tails" side up.
Investors can easily fall prey to the gambler's fallacy. For example, some
investors believe that they should liquidate a position after it has gone up in
a series of subsequent trading sessions because they don't believe that the
position is likely to continue going up. Conversely, other investors might
hold on to a stock that has fallen in multiple sessions because they view
further declines as "improbable". Just because a stock has gone up on six
consecutive trading sessions does not mean that it is less likely to go up on
during the next session.
28. This is stock data slide.
We leverage
overconfidence and
Gambler’s Fallacy by
providing investors
with current stock
performance alongside
with recent news
about the company.
29. This is stock data slide.
We leverage
overconfidence and
Gambler’s Fallacy by
providing investors
with current stock
performance alongside
with recent news
about the company.
The more investors
will know, the more
overconfident they
will feel, even though
past performance is
not an indication for
the future.
31. To leverage the Herd
Behavior Bias a bit
further, we allow
investors to comment
and talk with one
another on each trade.
This is comments slide.
32. People tend to selectively
filter and pay more
attention to information
that supports their
opinions, while ignoring or
rationalizing the rest.
What is
Confirmation Bias
33. People tend to selectively
filter and pay more
attention to information
that supports their
opinions, while ignoring or
rationalizing the rest.
An investor that hears about a hot stock
from an unverified source and is
intrigued by the potential returns. That
investor might choose to research the
stock in order to "prove" its touted
potential is real.
researchWhat is
Confirmation Bias
34. People tend to selectively
filter and pay more
attention to information
that supports their
opinions, while ignoring or
rationalizing the rest.
An investor that hears about a hot stock
from an unverified source and is
intrigued by the potential returns. That
investor might choose to research the
stock in order to "prove" its touted
potential is real.
researchWhat is
Each investor could find
supporting data to his
intuition amongst the
different data points on
SnapVest: from stock
performance and crowd
behavior to comments.
Confirmation Bias
35. Those who study human behavior have repeatedly
found that the fear of missing an opportunity for
profits is a more enduring motivator than the fear of
losing one's life savings. At its fundamental level, this
fear of being left out or failing when your friends,
relatives and neighbors seem to be making a killing,
drives the overwhelming power of the crowd.
Missing an opportunity
What is
36. Those who study human behavior have repeatedly
found that the fear of missing an opportunity for
profits is a more enduring motivator than the fear of
losing one's life savings. At its fundamental level, this
fear of being left out or failing when your friends,
relatives and neighbors seem to be making a killing,
drives the overwhelming power of the crowd.
investors
Casinos frequently and artificially play the sounds of a
winning slot machine so people will think others are
winning in high frequency.
Missing an opportunity
What is
38. This is SnapVest’s
leaderboard. Here,
investors can see their
top performing peers,
by either return or
accuracy rate
This is our way to give
the feeling of: “by not
investing I’m practically
losing money”.
It’s like sitting next to a
slot machine when the
guy next to you is
constantly winning.
39. This is “my money”
page, in which the
investor can track his
performance according
to several metrics.
40. This is “my money”
page, in which the
investor can track his
performance according
to several metrics.
Investors can also
prioritize the investment
opportunities in their feed.
The more knowledgeable
the investor is regarding
the sector, the more likely
he is to invest.
41. This is “Trades” page.
Here the investor can
track each of his trades
and how well they
performed.
42. This is “Trades” page.
Here the investor can
track each of his trades
and how well they
performed.
Investors can also filter
the list by profits/loses
and sort the results by
date, return and cash
earned/lost.