Paper by Michelle Riedlinger, Axel Bruns, and Jean Burgess presented at the ANZCA 2021 conference, 8 July 2021.

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Sharing uncertain science: Mapping the
circulation of COVID-19 preprint research
reported in The Conversation on Facebook
Michelle Riedlinger, Axel Bruns, Jean Burgess
QUT Digital Media Research Centre / Global Journalism Innovation Lab
Alice Fleerackers
ScholCommLab, Simon Fraser University, British Columbia, Canada
michelle.riedlinger@ qut.edu.au

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Research questions
RQ1: Are there identifiable patterns in the content included in The
Conversation COVID-19 preprint articles (TC preprint articles) and
the presence of markers of scientific uncertainty? (issue, time etc.)
RQ2: Who is sharing TC preprint on Facebook? (moving beyond
academics)
RQ3: How are Facebook users engaging with scientific uncertainty when
posting about TC preprint articles?

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Finding 1: Relationships between content in
The Conversation COVID-19 preprint articles
and markers of scientific uncertainty

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The Conversation articles presenting preprint research negatively included
more markers of scientific uncertainty than articles presenting preprint
research positively.
TC stories Preprint
mentions
Uncertainty
markers
Positive 33 9
Negative 8 8
Total 41 17
The relation between these variables was significant, X2 (1, N = 41) = 4.6, p = .032

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Negative preprint presentation
While a preliminary report has suggested a longer incubation period of up to 24
days, this is considered unlikely (https://theconversation.com/yes-australians-on-
board-the-diamond-princess-need-to-go-into-quarantine-again-its-time-to-reset-the-
clock-131906)
The virus appears to be about as contagious as influenza
(https://theconversation.com/how-big-will-the-coronavirus-epidemic-be-an-epidemiologist-
updates-his-concerns-133133)
A study from Harvard University – not yet peer-reviewed – assessed travel intensities from
Wuhan to various countries. The researchers concluded that it is shocking that Indonesia has
yet to confirm any 2019-nCoV cases (https://theconversation.com/open-science-promotes-
global-scientific-collaboration-to-tackle-coronavirus-why-hasnt-indonesia-contributed-131318)
Positive preprint presentation

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Preliminary findings: Sharing The Conversation
COVID-19 preprint articles through Facebook

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Frequency
The official TC Facebook pages received 15% of shares, 30% of comments
and 10% of reactions of all Facebook spaces (groups, pages and profiles)
sharing TC preprint articles

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Facebook user engagement with TC preprint articles was mostly issue specific
Frequency

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Over half of Facebook users sharing TC preprint article links
were citizens and/or posting to Facebook groups

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Most Facebook users posting TC preprint article links
didn’t provide political identification information

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Preliminary findings: Sharing The Conversation
COVID-19 stories on Facebook and scientific
uncertainty (analysis of posts)

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Facebook users mostly reshared posts with TC preprint links without
comment or shared posts that included limited scientific uncertainty

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Facebook users posting TC preprint article links rarely included markers of
scientific uncertainty in their posts
Facebook
posts
Mentions
"preprint"
Mentions
work is
unreviewed
Mentions
work is
preliminary
Mentions
verification
needed
Any of
four
devices
315 1 1 2
Epistemic
modal
verbs
Mentions
“could”
Mentions
“may”
Mentions
“might”
Mentions
“perhaps”
15 10 4 1 1

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Preliminary findings – early in the pandemic…
• TC reporting of preprint research (positively or negatively) was significantly related to the
inclusion/exclusion of markers of scientific uncertainty.
• Facebook user engagement with TC preprint articles was issue-based (e.g. COVID-19
risks, spread and containment measures, “cures”) regardless of scientific uncertainty
associated with the research
• Citizens, often in Facebook groups (geolocated, issue-based e.g. health information), were
sharing TC preprint articles, and few Facebook spaces shared details about a political
identity
• Facebook users mostly reshared posts with TC preprint article links without comment or
shared information with posts that indicated limited scientific uncertainty

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Study limitations
• Limited to TC articles reporting on COVID-19 preprint research in the first three months of the
pandemic
• Does not include TC content republished in other outlets
• Focusses on public Facebook spaces (groups, pages, profiles); no data on private FB spaces
Next steps
• Include TC reporting of preprint research for 2020 (changes over time and issue)
• Cross-platform analysis - comparisons with Twitter

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Very special thanks to Jane Tan for assistance with the Crowdtangle API and
Aleesha Rodriguez for assistance with data coding.
This research is funded by the ARC project LP160100205 Amplifying Public Value:
Scholarly Contributions’ Impact on Public Debate and the SSHRC project Global
Journalism Innovation Lab.
Facebook data are provided courtesy of CrowdTangle.
Acknowledgments