Keynote presented at the I-POLHYS Symposium, Bologna, 22 Feb. 2024.

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Identifying the Symptoms
of Destructive Polarisation
Axel Bruns with the support of:
Australian Laureate Fellow Laura Vodden
Digital Media Research Centre Tariq Choucair
Queensland University of Technology Samantha Vilkins
Brisbane, Australia Katharina Esau
a.bruns@qut.edu.au
@snurb_dot_info | @snurb@aoir.social | @snurb.bsky.social

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Image: Midjourney
Polarisation

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Our Project
• Australian Laureate Fellowship (2022-27)
• Determining the Drivers and Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public
Debate
• Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
• 4 postdocs, 4 + 4* PhD students, 1 data scientist
• Cross-national comparisons (intended: AU, US, UK, DE, DK, CH, probably + BR, PE, CA)
• Longitudinal analysis over the course of the project
* Starting in 2024 – interested? Get in touch! (a.bruns@qut.edu.au)

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Image: Midjourney
Forms of Polarisation

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(https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-
frustration-with-the-two-party-system/pp_2022-08-09_partisan-hostility_01-08/)
(https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/the-republican-and-
democratic-parties/pp_2023-09-19_views-of-politics_04-02/)

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Forms of Polarisation
• Polarisation at what levels?
• Micro: between individuals
• Meso: between groups
• Macro: across society
• Mass: involving everyone
• Elite: amongst formal political actors (however defined)
• See: Esau et al. (2023) — https://eprints.qut.edu.au/238775/
• (and chapter forthcoming in the Routledge Handbook of Political Campaigning)

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Forms of Polarisation
• Polarisation on what attributes?
• Issue-based: disagreements over specific policy settings
• Ideological: fundamental differences based on political belief systems
• Affective: political beliefs turned into deeply felt in-group / out-group identity
• Perceived: view of society, as based on personal views and media reporting
• Interpretive: reading of issues, events, and media coverage based on personal views
• Interactional: manifested in choices to interact with or ignore other individuals/groups
• (and more…)

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Image: Midjourney
A Problem? (When?)

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Agonism? Polarisation? Dysfunction?
• How bad is it, exactly?
• All politics is polarised (just not to the point of dysfunction)
• Much (most?) politics is multipolar, not just left/right
• When does mild antagonism turn into destructive polarisation?
• We suggest five symptoms (Esau et al., 2023):
a) breakdown of communication;
b) discrediting and dismissing of information;
c) erasure of complexities;
d) exacerbated attention and space for extreme voices;
e) exclusion through emotions.
Image: Midjourney

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Case Study
(https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/voice-polls-show-support-lower-than-republic-vote/102942468)

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• Indigenous rights and recognition:
• Complex topic since European arrival in 1788
• Indigenous Australians remain severely
disadvantaged
• Persistent lack of formal consultation
• Voice to Parliament:
• Endorsed in 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart
• Commitment to referendum on a Voice in Anthony
Albanese’s 21 May 2022 election victory speech
• Referendum design revealed in March 2023
• Constitutional referendum held on 14 Oct. 2023
Proposed Constitutional Amendment:
Chapter IX Recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
Peoples
129 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice
In recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the
First Peoples of Australia:
1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait
Islander Voice;
2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make
representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of
the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Islander peoples;
3. The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to
make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and
Torres Strait Islander Voice, including its composition, functions,
powers and procedures.
Case Study: Voice to Parliament Referendum

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Referendum Vote
• Voting modus:
• Compulsory for all registered voters
• Actual turnout: 89.95%
• Requirements for success:
• Majority of voters overall
• Majority of voters in majority of states
(4 of 6)
• Results:
• Overall: 40% Yes, 60% No
• 0 of 6 states
• Yes win only in Australian Capital
Territory
By Teratix - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=131601888

15. (https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-no-voters-more-likely-to-see-australia-as-already-divided-214713)

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Datasets:
Facebook: ~89k posts from ~9400 public pages/groups (via CrowdTangle)
Twitter: ~52k tweets from ~18k accounts (via NodeXL scraper; mostly excluding retweets)
(+ Instagram, YouTube, … – more work in progress)
The Voice Debate in
Mainstream and Social Media

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Yes 23
The Project
Rove McManus
Anthony
Albanese
Linda Burney The Australian
Sky News
Australia
Pauline
Hanson
Nyunggai
Warren
Mundine
Uluru
Statement
Crikey
Jacinta
Nampijinpa
Price
Twitter @Mentions Network
Black/green/grey/red: Twitter accounts
Yes/No stance: by exclusive use of #VoteYes / #VoteNo

18. Sky News Australia
Senator Jacinta Price –
Don’t Divide Us Vote No
The Voice 2023 –
Yes or No
Pauline Hanson’s
Please Explain
The Uluru Statement
from the Heart
Yes 23
ABC News
Pensioners, Veterans and Seniors
Political Discussion Group
We Loathe Dutton
& Murdoch
Facebook On-Sharing Network
Black/green/grey/red: public Facebook pages/groups
Yes/No stance: LLM-based coding of post content

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Conservative and Far-Right Politicians

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Centrist and Progressive Politicians

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• Asymmetrical contest:
• Strong role of party-political alignment
• Issue polarisation subsumed into ideological (and affective) polarisation
• Expressed in social media contexts as interactive polarisation
• No campaign substantially more centralised
• Yes campaign splintered and relying on grassroots activism without strong leadership
Overall Impressions So Far

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Conservative and Far-Right Media

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Centrist and Progressive Media

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Overall Impressions So Far
• Asymmetrical contest:
• Strong role of party-political alignment
• Issue polarisation subsumed into ideological (and affective) polarisation
• Expressed in social media contexts as interactive polarisation
• No campaign substantially more centralised
• Yes campaign splintered and relying on grassroots activism without strong leadership
• Very clear position of leadership for Sky News Australia – no Yes campaign counterpart
• Right and far-right media very clearly supporting No agenda and talking-points
• Clear attempts to deepen affective polarisation
• Centre and centre-left media more focussed on fact-checking than campaigning

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Overall Impressions from Our Analysis
• Asymmetrical contest:
• Strong role of party-political alignment
• Issue polarisation subsumed into ideological (and affective) polarisation
• Expressed in social media contexts as interactive polarisation
• No campaign substantially more centralised
• Yes campaign splintered and relying on grassroots activism without strong leadership
• Very clear position of leadership for Sky News Australia – no Yes campaign counterpart
• Right and far-right media very clearly supporting No agenda and talking-points
• Clear attempts to deepen affective polarisation
• Centre and centre-left media more focussed on fact-checking than campaigning
• Substantially more engagement with No-leaning content
• Obvious interpretive polarisation, particularly on Uluru Statement and Voice proposal itself
• Significant role for YouTube content, especially on Facebook
• Opinion poll results reveal divergent patterns of perceived polarisation on either side

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Image: Midjourney
Destructive Polarisation

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Example: @mention network on Twitter*
Some separation into Yes/No camps, with continued
exchanges between the two sides – but often lack of
meaningful engagement between them.
How extreme is this, by comparison with other cases?
Symptoms of Dysfunction:
Breakdown of
Communication
* Data obtained through NodeXL Twitter scraper, with limited completeness.
Red: exclusively using #VoteNo; green: exclusively using #VoteYes.

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Example: Liberal Party ‘No’ Campaign on Instagram
Simple language, appeals to ignorance.
How might we operationalise this at scale? Sentence
structure, semiotic analysis?
Symptoms of Dysfunction:
Erasure of Complexities
(https://www.instagram.com/p/CyMy7hFI1Kw/)

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Example: Sky News Australia Reporting
Many of the most widely shared videos from influential
conservative news source Sky News Australia made
explicitly conspiracist claims.
Distinct language choices and othering of opponents.
Symptoms of Dysfunction:
Discrediting and Dismissal
of Information
(https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/peta-credlin/transfer-of-power-voice-has-very-little-to-do-with-supporting-indigenous-australians/video/597252c79e59d25cf3bfe0c423768dc1,
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/sky-news-host-peta-credlin-exposes-labors-lie-on-the-uluru-statement-from-the-heart-under-freedom-of-information-act/news-story/f1539032a44c6658c2feb352b2ddea45,
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/andrew-bolt/youve-been-misled-real-agenda-of-the-voice-exposed-in-a-brawl/video/d2255bf53cb4c0223e990cabd1461f14)

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Example: YouTube Videos Shared on Facebook
Explicitly conspiracist (and antisemitic) videos amongst the
YouTube video content shared most frequently in public
Facebook groups and pages.
Analysis of (audience and media) attention distribution.
Symptoms of Dysfunction:
Disproportionate Attention
to Extreme Voices

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Example: No Campaign’s Use of Fear and Doubt
“The campaign to sink the Voice has instructed volunteers
to use fear and doubt rather than facts to trump arguments
used by the Yes camp.” (Sydney Morning Herald)
Detection of affective and emotional language choices.
Symptoms of Dysfunction:
Exclusion through
Emotions
(https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-campaign-s-fear-doubt-strategy-revealed-20230910-p5e3fu.html)

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Further Outlook
Image: Midjourney

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Research Perspectives
• Symptoms of dysfunction:
• Do these five cover the major pathologies, or are there further symptoms?
• Are there more systematic approaches to diagnosing these symptoms?
• At what point are the symptoms severe enough to represent dysfunction?
• (Need to consider national, cultural, platform contexts here.)
• Methodological approaches:
• How might we scale up the evaluation of these symptoms beyond small-scale studies?
• What is the role for Natural Language Processing and AI-enhanced analysis here?

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Research Perspectives
• Forms of polarisation:
• More work needed on digital research methods for different, entangled polarisation forms
• How do the symptoms align with polarisation types? E.g.:
• Exclusion through emotions  affective polarisation
• Breakdown of communication  interactional polarisation
• Is there a common progression from minor to major forms of polarisation, or symptoms?
• Can these insights be used to formulate depolarisation strategies?
• Beyond Twitter and Facebook:
• Strong need for more cross-platform / platform-agnostic research approaches

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Thank you!

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This research is supported by the Australian Research Council through the Australian Laureate
Fellowship project Determining the Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public
Debate.
Acknowledgments