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2015 Rodney Wylie Lecture Slides
- 1. THE 36 $ TRILLION QUESTION WORLD INVESTMENT IN ENERGY UNDER UNCERTAINTY Manuel Pinho School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University Department of Government Georgetown University 2015 Rodney Wylie lecture mp2968@columbia.edu
- 2. INVESTMENT IN THE ENERGY SECTOR, 2015- 30: 36 U$ TRILLION IEA- INDC´s Power fossil fuels, 1.7 Power nuclear, 0.9 Renewables, 4.2 Transmission , 5 Oil, 9.3 Gas, 5.7 Efficiency, 9 Power: 12 $ trillion Renewables: + 40% of investment in power generation Efficiency: 9 $ trillion 1 unit of world GDP needs 20% less energy than in 1995 Oil & gas: 15 $ trillion 4/5 for compensating decline in output Source: IEA, Special report, WEO 2015, page 40 • 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 ≈ 3% 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 • 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑜𝑜 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 ≈ 5 − 10% 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝐺𝐺𝐺 Energy production: +1/3 (2015- 2035), BP Energy related CO2 emissions: < 970 𝐺𝐺, 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 Degree of uncertainty
- 3. 2000 Demand shock from China Natural resources super cycle 2007 Shale gas production in the US starts in the Barnett, Fayetville and Hainsville plays. In 2015, production in the Marcellus shale play will equal that of Qatar 2008 Solar PV manufacturing moves to Asia Peak in oil prices 142$/bbl 2010 Cancun agreement on 2° 𝐶 2011 Fukushima Shale oil in the US Peak coal prices 142$/t 2012 President Xi inauguration “New normal” Sunset of the commodities super cycle 2014 Oil prices fall by + 50% Warmest year on record 2014 Presidents Obama and Xi joint statement on climate change UNCERTAINTY SLOW CHANGE- FAST CHANGE SIMPLICITY- COMPLEXITY LOCAL- GLOBAL 2005 2015
- 4. IN 2010 YOU HAD CREATED A DIVERSIFIED ENERGY PORTFOLIO WHAT WOULD BE THE RETURN IN 2015 COMPARED TO THE S&P 500 ? Higher? Lower? By how much? DEEP OFFSHORE SHALE OIL & GAS NATURAL RESOURCES COAL LARGE UTILITY OIL SERVICES WIND TURBINES TRANSMSSION YOUR PORTFOLIO 8 energy stocks- market leaders only- liquidity- equal share
- 5. THINK OUT OF THE BOX: DEMAND ... AND SUPPLY We might as well reasonably dispute whether it is the upper or the under blade of a pair of scissors that cuts a piece of paper, as whether value is governed by demand or supply. -Alfred Marshall 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 US Qatar China Largest natural gas production increases, 2010- 14. Bcf/d 4084 970 -1837 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 US Canada Saudi Arabia Largest production changes 2010- 14, kbd Energy consumption in China grew strongly (+8% CAGR in 2000- 14) and accounted for 55% of the increase in world primary energy consumption The increase in US crude production in 2010- 14 was close to total exports of Canada+ Mexico. In 2015, production in the Marcellus shale will equal that of Qatar. 45% 55% China, contribution to growth of world energy demand, 2000- 13
- 6. THINK OUT OF THE BOX: PRICES What goes up must come down 0 5 10 15 20 25 1992-01-01 1993-06-01 1994-11-01 1996-04-01 1997-09-01 1999-02-01 2000-07-01 2001-12-01 2003-05-01 2004-10-01 2006-03-01 2007-08-01 2009-01-01 2010-06-01 2011-11-01 2013-04-01 2014-09-01 World natural gas prices, $/ MM Btu US Germany Japan 0 50 100 150 Jan05,1990 Jan05,1992 Jan05,1994 Jan05,1996 Jan05,1998 Jan05,2000 Jan05,2002 Jan05,2004 Jan05,2006 Jan05,2008 Jan05,2010 Jan05,2012 Jan05,2014 WTI, spot price Oil spot prices (41.9 $/bl) are 70% off from their July 2008 peak (144 $/bbl). Ignoring the panic during the 2009 subprime crisis, prices are back to the levels of July 2004. Futures contracts for delivery in December 2020 are at 57 $/ bbl. Henry Hub prices (2 $/MMBtu) are back to the levels of 2001 (except a period of 3 weeks in 2012). Futures contracts for deliver for deliver in June 2019 are at 2.9 $/ MMBtu. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Australian thermal coal, $/MT Australian thermal coal prices are 71% off from their 193 $/ton 2011 peak. Futures for delivery in 2020 are at 48 $/t. Back to 2004- 11 years Back to 2001- 14 years Back to 2007- 8 years 42 2 56
- 7. 1. Demand China 2. Supply Fuels 3. Supply Electricity 4. Regulatory/ macro environement SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY
- 8. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Share in world GDP, PPP China, People's Republic of United States European Union • The progress that is taking place in China, a country with a population of more than 1 billion, is unique. It totally changed the balance of power. • After 30 years of sustained growth following the reforms led by Deng Xiao Ping, China became the largest economy in the world (in terms of GDP measured by PPP). However, income per capita is only 25% of the US. . A “new normal” is needed to avoid falling in the middle income trap. • Unbalanced. China´s economic model is based on an exceptionally high investment rate (= 50% GDP) and on strong share of exports (25% GDP). 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1000 1500 1870 1950 1973 China UNPRECEDENTED SUCCESS Source: IMFSource:: Maddison CHINA
- 9. THE NEW NORMALAND THE NATURAL RESOURCES SUPER CYCLE 7.3 16.9 12.8 13.4 18.1 2.7 10.6 2.4 1.4 7.1 10.4 5.6 3.22.9 9.2 1.6 2 4.8 6.8 3.1 1 2.1 6.5 -0.3 0.3 2.8 4.6 2.8 1 -5 0 5 10 15 20 China: commodity demand growth 2001-11 2011-2014 2014-20 2020-2025 The deceleration of demand from natural resources from China is impressive and explains to a large extent the end of the commodities super cycle. Source: Citibank Centralized/ coordinated/ upward Decentralized/ uncoordinated/ downward CHINA 0 50 100 150 200 250 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cmmodities price index, including energy Source: IMF
- 10. 2006 11th 5 Year Plan Focus on energy efficiency, 1,000 Energy- saving entreprises 2011 12th 5 Years Plan -16% energy intensity, -17% carbon intensity, share of non fossil fuels 11.4% by 2015 2014 Energy development action plan Cap on ∆% energy and coal consumption, share of non fossil fuels 15% by 2020, share of natural gas 10%, nucleat target 54GW 1215 INDC Cap CO2 emissions in 2030, or earlier,share of non fossilfuels 20% by 2030, -60-65% CO2/ GDP by 2030, from 2005 level 1216 3th 5 Years Plan A ONE THOUSAND MILE JOURNEY STARTS FROM THE 1ST STEP China INDC, 2015 11.4% by 2015 15% by 2020 20% by 2030 Reneable energy sources % primary energy US Japan EU China 7 5 13 11 → 𝟐𝟐 1. CHINA
- 11. OIL & GAS PRICES AND COSTS The more you understand what is wrong with a figure, the more valuable that figure becomes.” Lord Kelvin $/b bl 0 20 0 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100 Onshore Middle East Offshore shelf Extra heavy oil Deepwater Onshore Russia Onshore ROW Ultra deepwate r Shale Oil sands mbd Average 2005- 13 Average 2010- 13 Actual WTI 42 $/bl 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Productioncost(USD/MBtu) Remaining technically recoverable gas resources (tcm) Conventional gas Shale gas Sour gas C BM Alreadyproduced Tightgas Deepwater Arctic Actual Henry Hubb 2 $/MMBtu Source: Ryjstadt, 2015 Source: IEA, Resources to reserves, 2014 FUELS The numbers do not add up Current prices may produce stranded assets
- 12. GOLDEN AGE OF GAS? Not so fast… 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 Jan-2000 Oct-2000 Jul-2001 Apr-2002 Jan-2003 Oct-2003 Jul-2004 Apr-2005 Jan-2006 Oct-2006 Jul-2007 Apr-2008 Jan-2009 Oct-2009 Jul-2010 Apr-2011 Jan-2012 Oct-2012 Jul-2013 Apr-2014 US natural gas production, Bcf World reserves of conventional and unconventional natural gas are very abundant. The shale gas revolution started in 2007 and produced a spectacular increase in unconventional natuural gas in the US and a decline in imports. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan07,1997 Jan07,1998 Jan07,1999 Jan07,2000 Jan07,2001 Jan07,2002 Jan07,2003 Jan07,2004 Jan07,2005 Jan07,2006 Jan07,2007 Jan07,2008 Jan07,2009 Jan07,2010 Jan07,2011 Jan07,2012 Jan07,2013 Jan07,2014 Jan07,2015 Henry Hub natural gas prices U$/ MMBtu Henry Hub spot prices collapsed from 13 $/ MMBtu in 2008 to 2 $/ MMBtu. The US challenge: to create new demand (industrial renaissance argument, Mexico, exports) who would rise prices to ≈ 𝟓 $ 𝐌𝐌𝐌𝐌𝐌. The issues: slow industrial demand, strong decline in prices in Europe- Asia prices FUELS
- 13. OIL OUT OF AMERICA Has something changed or has everything changed? 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 Jan-1981 Mar-1983 May-1985 Jul-1987 Sep-1989 Nov-1991 Jan-1994 Mar-1996 May-1998 Jul-2000 Sep-2002 Nov-2004 Jan-2007 Mar-2009 May-2011 Jul-2013 U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan 05, 1990 Jan 05, 1992 Jan 05, 1994 Jan 05, 1996 Jan 05, 1998 Jan 05, 2000 Jan 05, 2002 Jan 05, 2004 Jan 05, 2006 Jan 05, 2008 Jan 05, 2010 Jan 05, 2012 Jan 05, 2014 WTI, spot price 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Dec-1979 Sep-1982 Jun-1985 Mar-1988 Dec-1990 Sep-1993 Jun-1996 Mar-1999 Dec-2001 Sep-2004 Jun-2007 Mar-2010 Dec-2012 U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day) Source: EIA Source: EIASource: EIA US crude imports declined precipitously as shale oil production rose. In mid 2014 crude oil prices went in freefall. Until when? Possibility: 1986 … again. FUELS
- 14. D1 D2 ECONOMICS OF TIGHT OIL 101 Pandora´s box? Shaleoil range 60 65 60 85 S1D1 D2 S2 S2 Oil supply and demand are inelastic, which produces price volatility. In the figure, a small increase in demand might raise prices from 60 to 85 $/bbl Saudi Arabia steps the swing producer and stabilizes prices- supply curve shifts to S2.. Shale oil production created a kinked supply curve. Supply is elastic in the shale oil range. Shale acts as a stabilizer. Conventional Shale High fixed costs, low variable costs Low fixed costs, high variable costs 5-10 years between decision to invest and production starts 2-3 months between decision to invest and production starts Relatively slow declining rate Extremelly high declining rate Distributed all over the world US only On balance sheet finance Capital markets Breakeven cost starts at 15-20 $/ barrel Breakeven cost at 60- 80 $/ barrel NOC´s, majors Independents, small producers Slow productivity gains Rapid productivity gains
- 15. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 ArdmoreWoodford BriscoeRanchcondy… GreenRiveroilVt PermianWolfcampHz UtelandButte Pembinaoily BakkenAntelope PermianCentralBasin… KaybobDuvernaryoily Bakken PermianCentralBasin… PermianYesoHz UintaWasatchHz TuscaloosaMarineShale Eaglebine Marnaton(Shelf) PermianMidlandstackedVt STACK CanaCoreOil SCOOPNon-CoreOil Breakeven, shale oil IT´S THE ARITHMETIC Elpis= Hope Source: Bloomberg Actual WTI 42 $/bl 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 2012 2013 2014 2015 U.S. onshore oil producers' debt service as a share of operating cash flow 83 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR Until when shale producers will resist?FUELS
- 16. 16 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 GDP/ Electricty Consumption/ Energy Consumption Growth Rate 1990-2015 GDP Electricity Consumption Energy Consumption POWER The era of electrification, China- India and renewables 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Electrical capacity by techology 2013 2030 Oecd 13% China 38% India 15% ROW 34% Increase in world power demand by country/ region, 2013- 30 Oecd China India ROW The era of electrification Electricity consumption grows much faster than primary energy demand More than 50% of the increase in electricity demand will come from China and India Renewables will contribute the most to increase generation capacity. Their cost is declining at a steady pace (wind) or sharply (solar PV) and they are increasingly driven by economics POWER
- 17. THE MYTH OF THE “ELECTRICITY SYSTEM” No ready to wear Deregulation in practice EU Internal market 1st Directive 2003 Poor interconnection capacity Debate about capacity payments US Regulated Florida Colorado Arizona Deregulated Texas New York MassachusettsChina Fully regulated 67 104 134 148 118 383 220 351 US Denmark UK Germany Electricity prices Industry Retail POWER The deregulated marginal pricing electricity system is not a paradigm Industry electricity prices in Germany are 3x higher than in the US 76 71 65 41 38 35 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % coal in power generation, 2013 No clear correlation between electricity prices and competitivenesss Extremelly large differences among countries in terms of sources of power generation
- 18. US 37 GR 61 9/ 2015 JP 73 9/ 2015 GR 87 9/ 2014 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 3 6.6 8.5 10.4 15.7 LCOE, natural gas, $/ Kwh JP 119 9/ 2014 FUEL PRICE AND CARBON PRICE UNCERTAINTY POWER • Price uncertainty: From 2014 to 2015, LCOE´s of natural gas power plants moved by more than 25 $/ Kwh in Germany and 45 $/ Kwh in Japan. • Carbon pricing uncertainty: Carbon pricing will favor natural gas power plants relative to coal power plants. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Natural gas, coal, production prices, energy basis Coal Production Prices (Dollars per Million Btu) Natural Gas Production Prices (Dollars per Million Btu)
- 19. Wind, solar, hydro Nuclear Coal Natural gas Capacity Power demand Wind, solar, hydro Nucl ear Coal Natu ral gas $/ MW h Capacity Power demand INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLES Order of merit effect Integration of renewables produces structural changes in power systems and challenges the traditional utilities • Order of merit effect: tends to reduce the pool price • Peak shaving: steals load at the hour of the day when electricity is more expensive • Austraila has ideal conditions to produce renewable energies
- 20. COP 21 OPPORTUNITY AND RISKS Available emissions until 2050: 980 Gt energy 50 GT others Emissions since pre- industrial levels 1970 Gt Global carbon budget 3,000 Gt to avoid > 2 ∘ C temperature increase INDC´s from 2021 Bottom up 16% 31% 35% 11% 7% Energy will be at the center of the debate CCS Renewables End use efficienc Fossil fuel switching Nuclear Good news: emissions decelerated Bad news: it´s not enough CLIMATE Carbon budget
- 21. COP 21: INDCs China • Peak CO2 in 2030 or before • Lower CO2/GDP by 60-65% below 2005 levels • 20% share of non fossil fuels in total primary energy • + 4.5 bcm forest stock United States • Lower CO2e emissions by 26- 28% below 2005 by 2025 • Clean power act: lower emissions of power sector by 32% below 2005 levels by 2030 (individual targets for states) • 28% share of non fossil fuels in power generation by 2030 EU • Lower 40% CO2 e emissions by 2030 India • Lower CO2/ GDP by 33- 35% by 2030 below 2005 • Lower CO2/ GDP by 20- 25% by 2020 below 2005 level • 26-30% share of non fosssil fuels in power generation US: shale China: energy security, pollution CLIMATE
- 22. 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 1900 1909 1918 1927 1936 1945 1954 1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008 2017 2026 2035 2044 2053 2062 2071 2080 2089 2098 Climate interactive BAU INDC Strict Ratchet 1 Ratchet 2 Ratchet 3 2 deg Pathway 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 CAT AR5 BAU #REF! Current Policy Projections Current Policy Projections Pledges Pledges 2C consistent #REF! #REF! COP 21 scenarios Yes, if… CLIMATE COP 21 will likely be an important step in a process, not an end by itself
- 23. 4.7 1.6 -2.2 -6 0.5 0.4 0 -0.1 8.9 5.4 4.2 3.5 -3.8 -3 -3.9 -4.7 -0.6 -1.1 -2.4 -4.7 2005- 2015 2015- 2030 2030- 2040 2040- 2050 CHINA, 2005- 2050 CO2 energy Population GDP/ population Energy/ GDP CO2/ energy 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CHINA´s MEDIUM TERM MACRO ENERGY SCENARIO CO2 emissions should reach a peak in 2030 or befor at ≈ 𝟏𝟏 𝐆𝐆 Main drivers: • Lower GDP growth, from 8.9% in 2005- 2015 to 3.5% in 2030- 2050 • Strong (and increasing) decline in energy intensity • Carbon intensity effort is not front loaded 2005- 2015 2015- 2030 2030- 2040 2040- 2050 1. CHINA
- 24. 1. Demand China 2. Supply Fuels 3. Supply Electricity 4. Regulatory environement Climate/ Efficiency Macro impact SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY 1. New normal: cyclical downturn v. structural adjustment 2. New energy priorities and emissions commitements 3. Multipolar world: India- ASEAN 1. Shale´s Pandora box 2. Structural change of natural gas market, peak coal 3.Technological change 1. Renewable energies learning curve 2. Centralized v. distributed generation 3. Disruptive changes: CCS, storage 1. Post 2030 pathway 2. Carbon pricing 3. Macroeconomic impact 0 50 100 150 200 250 Brentprice$/bbl Budget breakeven oil prices for major oil exporters Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning. Albert Einstein
- 25. 40 60 80 100 120 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Forward contracts - WTI Spot Price Jan-10 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Forward contracts - Coal Forward contracts Spot Price • In 2010, oil and coal forwards suggested a moderate increase in prices • However, the outcome has been radically different • The central 2015 IEA scenario assumes prices > than indicated by futures contracts INFORMATION FROM FUTURES MARKETS 0 20 40 60 WTI futures IEA low cost scenario IEA NPS, 89 $bbl 0 1 2 3 4 Henry Hubb futures 44 46 48 50 52 54 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Newcastle coal futures prices IEA NPS, 5.2 $/MMBtu 2010 2015
- 26. 0 50 100 150 200 US coal Companies Peabody Energy Alpha Natural Resource 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Jan,2010 Aug,2010 Mar,2011 Oct,2011 May,2012 Dec,2012 Jul,2013 Feb,2014 Sep,2014 Apr,2015 Nov,2015 Global Natural resources companies BHP Rio Tinto Glencore COALAND NATURAL RESOURCES Manuel Pinho 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan,2010 Sep,2010 May,2011 Jan,2012 Sep,2012 May,2013 Jan,2014 Sep,2014 May,2015 PETROBRAS 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jan,… Jul,2010 Jan,… Jul,2011 Jan,… Jul,2012 Jan,… Jul,2013 Jan,… Jul,2014 Jan,… Jul,2015 Independent US oil companies Anadarko Apache Chesapeake Devon 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1/1/10 8/1/10 3/1/11 10/1/11 5/1/12 12/1/12 7/1/13 2/1/14 9/1/14 4/1/15 11/1/15 German utilities E.On RWE
- 27. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan,2010 Jul,2010 Jan,2011 Jul,2011 Jan,2012 Jul,2012 Jan,2013 Jul,2013 Jan,2014 Jul,2014 Jan,2015 Jul,2015 Oil Service Companies Schlumberger Halliburton National Oilwell Varco Weatherford International 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1/1/10 5/1/10 9/1/10 1/1/11 5/1/11 9/1/11 1/1/12 5/1/12 9/1/12 1/1/13 5/1/13 9/1/13 1/1/14 5/1/14 9/1/14 1/1/15 5/1/15 9/1/15 European TSO´s National Grid Red Electrica 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan,2010 May,2010 Sept,2010 Jan,2011 May,2011 Sept,2011 Jan,2012 May,2012 Sept,2012 Jan,2013 May,2013 Sept,2013 Jan,2014 May,2014 Sept,2014 Jan,2015 May,2015 Sept,2015 Vestas Wind Systems
- 28. PETROBRAS BRAZIL APACHE US RIO TINTO UK/AU ALPHA NR US E.ON GERMANY SHLUMBERGER US VESTAS DENMARK -% 99 -87% -48% 31% -55 % +128 % +46 % S&P 500 +90 % Energy portfolio -10% HOW WOULD YOU HAVE INVESTED 100 $ MILLION IN 2010? DEEP OFFSHORE SHALE OIL & GAS NATURAL RESOURCES COAL LARGE UTILITY OIL SERVICES WIND TURBINES TRANSMSSION NATIONAL GRID UK -6% Manuel Pinho
- 29. The road ahead Long and winding road Companies start from weak position Possible to reduce climate uncertainty Disruptive innovations No one size fits all Challenge= opportunity Extremelly high uncertainty Demand: cyclical or structural? Supply: something or everything? Oil prices: 1986 again? Peak coal? Structural changes in natural gas markets Unique opportunity to produce more energy and cleaner energy More energy :1/3 by 2040 Cleaner energy:≪ 970 𝐺𝐺 𝐶𝐶𝐶 More or less uncertainty than in 2010- 15? 36 trillion investment in energy The bad news- Nothing lasts forever The good news- Nothing lasts forever Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity Seneca