This research note analyses potential acquirer of the SFW business, and looks at Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) reforms and values SFW on a sum of the parts basis (a relevant valuation methodology for any business with multiple business segments).
An analytical framework for how to price and value major bank stocks. Provided the basis for accurately calling trading strategies for the major banks during the Global Financial Crisis.
An analytical framework for how to price and value major bank stocks. Provided the basis for accurately calling trading strategies for the major banks during the Global Financial Crisis.
Every day I hear from people that the stock market is a bad investment because of the volatile nature. Yes the stock market is volatile but over the long term we can see the true nature of investing in stocks and bonds.
In case you need to present economic status of your company then our content-ready financial statement analysis PowerPoint Presentation is ideal for you. This income statement PPT presentation having multiple slides such as financial projections, key financial ratios, liquidity ratios, cash flow statement KPIs, profitability ratios, activity ratios, solvency ratios, income statement overview and funding updates etc. This cash flow assessment PowerPoint template goes well with topics like profitability analysis, business impact analysis, financial health, and income statement, balance sheet, statement of cash flow, business performance analysis, financial health, and future prospects of an organization, project future performance, economic analysis, company analysis, business valuation, fundamental analysis. For successful business presentation, PowerPoint background is as important as the content in the slides. Our accounting statement PPT slide provides you both content rich as well as professional slides. Download our financial statement analysis presentation slides to project your business future performance. Elucidate on your ideas with our Financial Statement Analysis PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Drive your team to excellence.
TD Mergers & Acquisitions Competition 2015
We created a presentation on the potential bid structure and analysis of the transaction based on HBS case 9-210-040 "Roche's Acquisition of Genentech".
Team members:
Catherine Qian
Jenny Li
Terence Leung
Yu Cao
1
CHAPTER 3
Analysis of Financial Statements
2
Topics in Chapter
Ratio analysis
Du Pont system
Effects of improving ratios
Limitations of ratio analysis
Qualitative factors
3
Value = + + +
FCF1
FCF2
FCF∞
(1 + WACC)1
(1 + WACC)∞
(1 + WACC)2
Free cash flow
(FCF)
Market interest rates
Firm’s business risk
Market risk aversion
Firm’s debt/equity mix
Cost of debt
Cost of equity
Weighted average
cost of capital
(WACC)
Net operating
profit after taxes
Required investments
in operating capital
−
=
Determinants of Intrinsic Value:
Using Ratio Analysis
...
For value box in Ch 3 ratios FM13.
4
Overview
Ratios facilitate comparison of:
One company over time
One company versus other companies
Ratios are used by:
Lenders to determine creditworthiness
Stockholders to estimate future cash flows and risk
Managers to identify areas of weakness and strength
5
Income Statement20102011ESales$5,834,400 $7,035,600COGS4,980,000 5,800,000Other expenses720,000 612,960Deprec.116,960 120,000 Tot. op. costs5,816,960 6,532,960 EBIT17,440 502,640Int. expense176,000 80,000 EBT(158,560)422,640Taxes (40%)(63,424)169,056Net income($ 95,136)$ 253,584
6
Balance Sheets: Assets20102011ECash$ 7,282 $ 14,000S-T invest.20,000 71,632AR632,160 878,000Inventories1,287,360 1,716,480 Total CA1,946,802 2,680,112 Net FA939,790 836,840Total assets$2,886,592 $3,516,952
7
Balance Sheets: Liabilities & Equity20102011EAccts. payable$ 324,000 $ 359,800Notes payable720,000 300,000Accruals284,960 380,000 Total CL1,328,960 1,039,800Long-term debt1,000,000 500,000Common stock460,000 1,680,936Ret. earnings97,632 296,216 Total equity557,632 1,977,152Total L&E$2,886,592 $3,516,952
8
Other Data20102011EStock price$6.00$12.17# of shares100,000 250,000EPS-$0.95$1.01DPS$0.11$0.22Book val. per sh.$5.58$7.91Lease payments$40,000$40,000Tax rate0.40.4
9
Liquidity Ratios
Can the company meet its short-term obligations using the resources it currently has on hand?
10
Forecasted Current and Quick Ratios for 2011.
CR10 = = = 2.58.
QR10 =
= = 0.93.
CA
CL
$2,680
$1,040
$2,680 - $1,716
$1,040
CA - Inv.
CL
11
Comments on CR and QR2011E20102009Ind.CR2.581.462.32.7QR0.930.50.81.0
Expected to improve but still below the industry average.
Liquidity position is weak.
12
Asset Management Ratios
How efficiently does the firm use its assets?
How much does the firm have tied up in assets for each dollar of sales?
13
Inventory Turnover Ratio vs. Industry Average
Inv. turnover =
= = 4.10.
Sales
Inventories
$7,036
$1,716
2011E 2010 2009 Ind.
Inv. T. 4.1 4.5 4.8 6.1
14
Comments on Inventory Turnover
Inventory turnover is below industry average.
Firm might have old inventory, or its control might be poor.
No improvement is currently forecasted.
.
Every day I hear from people that the stock market is a bad investment because of the volatile nature. Yes the stock market is volatile but over the long term we can see the true nature of investing in stocks and bonds.
In case you need to present economic status of your company then our content-ready financial statement analysis PowerPoint Presentation is ideal for you. This income statement PPT presentation having multiple slides such as financial projections, key financial ratios, liquidity ratios, cash flow statement KPIs, profitability ratios, activity ratios, solvency ratios, income statement overview and funding updates etc. This cash flow assessment PowerPoint template goes well with topics like profitability analysis, business impact analysis, financial health, and income statement, balance sheet, statement of cash flow, business performance analysis, financial health, and future prospects of an organization, project future performance, economic analysis, company analysis, business valuation, fundamental analysis. For successful business presentation, PowerPoint background is as important as the content in the slides. Our accounting statement PPT slide provides you both content rich as well as professional slides. Download our financial statement analysis presentation slides to project your business future performance. Elucidate on your ideas with our Financial Statement Analysis PowerPoint Presentation Slides. Drive your team to excellence.
TD Mergers & Acquisitions Competition 2015
We created a presentation on the potential bid structure and analysis of the transaction based on HBS case 9-210-040 "Roche's Acquisition of Genentech".
Team members:
Catherine Qian
Jenny Li
Terence Leung
Yu Cao
1
CHAPTER 3
Analysis of Financial Statements
2
Topics in Chapter
Ratio analysis
Du Pont system
Effects of improving ratios
Limitations of ratio analysis
Qualitative factors
3
Value = + + +
FCF1
FCF2
FCF∞
(1 + WACC)1
(1 + WACC)∞
(1 + WACC)2
Free cash flow
(FCF)
Market interest rates
Firm’s business risk
Market risk aversion
Firm’s debt/equity mix
Cost of debt
Cost of equity
Weighted average
cost of capital
(WACC)
Net operating
profit after taxes
Required investments
in operating capital
−
=
Determinants of Intrinsic Value:
Using Ratio Analysis
...
For value box in Ch 3 ratios FM13.
4
Overview
Ratios facilitate comparison of:
One company over time
One company versus other companies
Ratios are used by:
Lenders to determine creditworthiness
Stockholders to estimate future cash flows and risk
Managers to identify areas of weakness and strength
5
Income Statement20102011ESales$5,834,400 $7,035,600COGS4,980,000 5,800,000Other expenses720,000 612,960Deprec.116,960 120,000 Tot. op. costs5,816,960 6,532,960 EBIT17,440 502,640Int. expense176,000 80,000 EBT(158,560)422,640Taxes (40%)(63,424)169,056Net income($ 95,136)$ 253,584
6
Balance Sheets: Assets20102011ECash$ 7,282 $ 14,000S-T invest.20,000 71,632AR632,160 878,000Inventories1,287,360 1,716,480 Total CA1,946,802 2,680,112 Net FA939,790 836,840Total assets$2,886,592 $3,516,952
7
Balance Sheets: Liabilities & Equity20102011EAccts. payable$ 324,000 $ 359,800Notes payable720,000 300,000Accruals284,960 380,000 Total CL1,328,960 1,039,800Long-term debt1,000,000 500,000Common stock460,000 1,680,936Ret. earnings97,632 296,216 Total equity557,632 1,977,152Total L&E$2,886,592 $3,516,952
8
Other Data20102011EStock price$6.00$12.17# of shares100,000 250,000EPS-$0.95$1.01DPS$0.11$0.22Book val. per sh.$5.58$7.91Lease payments$40,000$40,000Tax rate0.40.4
9
Liquidity Ratios
Can the company meet its short-term obligations using the resources it currently has on hand?
10
Forecasted Current and Quick Ratios for 2011.
CR10 = = = 2.58.
QR10 =
= = 0.93.
CA
CL
$2,680
$1,040
$2,680 - $1,716
$1,040
CA - Inv.
CL
11
Comments on CR and QR2011E20102009Ind.CR2.581.462.32.7QR0.930.50.81.0
Expected to improve but still below the industry average.
Liquidity position is weak.
12
Asset Management Ratios
How efficiently does the firm use its assets?
How much does the firm have tied up in assets for each dollar of sales?
13
Inventory Turnover Ratio vs. Industry Average
Inv. turnover =
= = 4.10.
Sales
Inventories
$7,036
$1,716
2011E 2010 2009 Ind.
Inv. T. 4.1 4.5 4.8 6.1
14
Comments on Inventory Turnover
Inventory turnover is below industry average.
Firm might have old inventory, or its control might be poor.
No improvement is currently forecasted.
.
FSA, a personal insolvency restructuring firm and sub-prime home loan lender, has had a stellar run since this research piece was published. Many investors made great returns. Great CEO vision, strategy and execution.
Citadel Group (CGL) - initiation report - latent value in a trusted it servic...George Gabriel
Citadel Group is a highly trusted provider of IT and health care services, trusted by critical government departments to manage sensitive data. We were pleased to support Citadel with its corporate growth agenda.
Infomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation reportGeorge Gabriel
Initiation report on Infomedia (IFM) which I published. Overview of key value drivers and analysis of the investment opportunity. Still relevant today. Published for institutional investor market.
Analysis of Financial Statements.(Ratio analysis, Du Pont system ,Effects of ...Tanjin Tamanna urmi
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
Liquidity: Ability to meet current obligations
Asset Mgmt: Proper & effective use of assets
Asset utilization (i.e., Total Asset Turnover Ratio:
TAT = Sales / T. Assets
Debt Mgmt: extent of debt & level of safety afforded creditors
Debt utilization (i.e., Equity Multiplier:
EM = T. Assets / T. Eqty
Profitability: reflects effects of liquidity, asset mgmt, & debt on operating results
Expense Control: Profit Margin:
PM = Net Income / Sales
Market Value: indicators of what investors think of firm’s past results & future prospects
Adveritas (AV1) - Is Adveritas the next Dubber (DUB) George Gabriel
We compare and contrast to ASX-listed, global, SaaS companies - AV1 and DUB. Given DUB is more progressed in its global SaaS sales journey, we identify key insights for AV1 investors, based on DUB's historical experience.
STOCK SNAPSHOT - De.mem Limited - Water treatment tech with growing recurring...George Gabriel
De.mem (ASX: DEM) provides bespoke industrial water treatment solutions combining its (i) unique water membrane technology product suites and (iii) specialist engineering skills. DEM is improving revenue quality through growing recurring revenues and revenue diversification. Further valuation re-rating is possible as the company grows recurring revenues and drives to cash positive.
LatAm Autos (LAA) - Investor Presentation - 24 October 2017George Gabriel
Latam Autos (LAA) announces "visible path to cash positive".
Investors know this strategy works:
1. Build an online network of buyers and sellers, capturing dominant market share (and so creating barriers to new entrants and high switching costs for those trading outside your marketplace).
2. Monetise your network through upselling a range of higher margin products.
This strategy has been proven to work with realestate.com.au (ASX: REA) and carsales.com.au (ASX: CRZ).
LAA is executing this proven strategy for online marketplaces, with high volume growth in sales of high-margin upsell products (car insurance, car finance etc).
With LAA's dominant position in online car sales in Mexico and a strong upsell volume outlook, LAA has the confidence to announce a "visible path to cash positive", which is typically the catalyst for tech stock re-rating.
Henderson Global Group (HGG) - equity research initiation reportGeorge Gabriel
Best funds manager to buy is well positioned with product, people, performance, parent and price (5Ps of funds manager stock selection). We used this framework to pick HGG, and it proved to be a great call.
Tech Mpire (TMP) Business Overview - August 2017 George Gabriel
Not many tech stocks have all these attractive qualities: 1. organic revenue growth, up >3x in 2 years 2. Underlying profitability 3. Globally scalable market opportunity 4. M & A optionality 5. New CEO with sector-relevant experience (ex Google, youtube) ready to drive growth. TMP is ready to scale.
Tech Mpire (TMP) - Product Presentation - July 2017 George Gabriel
Overview of Tech Mpire (TMP)'s unique technology which automates the process of finding new user app downloads for large global corporates (eg. Uber, Tripadvisor etc). With high revenue growth and a new CEO who was a former customer, TMP is well placed to scale.
George Gabriel presentation - Digital Disruptors Conference 2015 George Gabriel
George hosted the Digital Disruptors Conference in 2015. He brought together ~200 investors and 10 senior executives to introduce their companies. Attached is his presentation.
Computershare (CPU) initiation report - well-priced quality franchise with fr...George Gabriel
Computershare (CPU) is a global registry business. It has operations in more than 40 countries and is continually growing. Its complexity makes it a somewhat challenging business model to analyse and value.
3PL has leading market share in Australian schools. It emerged from private equity ownership to scale globally. It has leading products Mathletics and Reading Eggs. The sale strategy was ambitious and success has not been linear along the way.
This research correctly called the bottom of the Australian banks share price cycle in the middle of the Global Financial Crisis. Fear and panic created a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity. For those prepared to think through and analyse the risks, there was significant money to be made.
Osisko Development - Investor Presentation - June 24
SFW - FOFA implications, Sum of parts valuation, possible acquirers
1. Stock Focus
Sfg Australia (SFW)
1
IMPLICATIONS OF FOFA REFORMS, SOTP VALUATION, POSSIBLE ACQUIRERS
RECOMMENDATION : POSITIVE
Minister Shorten has today announced deferral of mandatory
commencement of Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) reforms
to 1 July 2013. Despite deferral, FOFA will continue to drive
sector consolidation as smaller players opt to exit the sector
and larger players pursue consolidation.
We remain Positive on SFW, given its scarcity value as one of
only two listed vertically integrated wealth managers (IFL
and SFW). We prefer SFW given its lower valuation of 7.2x
FY13F PE (vs IFL 11.6x), higher dividend of 9.1% (vs IFL
7.7%), management track record and low likelihood of anti-
trust issues given its smaller scale. Our blended valuation of
49cps is based on a simple average of DCF, EV/EBITDA and
sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methods. Our SOTP values SFW by
applying peer group valuation multiples to each of SFW’s
revenue streams. Reflecting current depressed valuations,
our SOTP valuation is 42 cps, reinforcing our fundamentally
bullish view. Table 1.
WHAT’s NEW?
FOFA’s mandatory commencement deferred to 1 July 2013. We
analyse investment implications of FOFA for the sector.
WHAT’s CHANGED?
No change to valuation. Reiterate our Positive view from EAP
Note, “Working Hard for the Money”, 28 Feb 2012.
WHAT NOW?
SFW will benefit from consolidation, either as target or acquirer.
As a target - SFW’s 42 cps SOTP valuation confirms value to a
financial buyer. Strategic value to a trade buyer is higher. We
examine the rationale of potential SFW acquirers.
As an acquirer - SFW benefits from the exit of smaller players
who lack the scale and appetite to manage regulatory reform.
Trading Data
Last Price $0.32
12 month range $0.32 - $0.43
Market Cap $233m
Free Float $119m (51%)
Avg. Daily Volume 0.2m
Avg. Daily Value $0.1m
12 month return (historical) (8.0)%
Expected return improvement driven
by both structural (cost-out) and
cyclical (markets recovery) drivers.
Operating leverage to drive margin
expansion.
Earnings Forecasts
Yr to June 11A 12E 13E 14E
EBITDA ($m) 38.7 38.4 45.0 49.2
Rep NPAT ($m) 23.3 23.7 29.5 32.8
Adj NPAT ($m) 23.3 24.3 29.5 32.8
EPS (¢) 3.8 3.7 4.5 4.9
EPS Gth (%) 20.6 (1.5) 19.2 10.3
PER (x) 8.4 8.5 7.2 6.5
PEG Ratio (x) 0.5 0.3
DPS (¢) 2.5 2.4 2.9 3.2
Yield (%) 7.8 7.5 9.1 10.0
Franking (%) 100% 100% 100% 100%
ROE (%) 15% 15% 17% 18%
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 5.1 4.0 3.4
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (0.5) (1.0) (1.2) (1.3)
Int. Cover (x) n/a (35.8) (21.3) (17.1)
Valuation (blended) $0.49
George Gabriel, CFA
ggabriel@evansandpartners.com.au
March 15, 2012
+61 3 9631 9853
2. 2
IMPLICATIONS OF Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) reforms
1. Public policy rationale
According to Minister Shorten, the public policy rationale of the FOFA reforms is to “restore
trust in the system”, expand the availability of advice and reduce conflicts of interest between
financial advisers and their clients.
"The FOFA reforms are about making sure more Australians can access affordable and better
quality financial advice, free from the conflicts of interest created by commissions and other
product payments. These reforms will drive greater competition and innovation and are a long
term growth strategy for this important industry," said Minister Shorten.
2. Key FOFA reforms include:
(i) A ban on commissions/volume payments to financial advisers from platforms and
funds managers.
(ii) A requirement for advisers to obtain client agreement to ongoing advice fees every
two years and the annual provision of a fees statement.
(iii) The expansion of limited advice (eg. insurance sales).
3. Eight investment themes apply to wealth management stocks through to 2013-14:
(i) Uncertainty as earnings re-base.
(ii) Continued transition to fee-for-service revenue model, creating customer retention
risks and a drive for scale.
(iii) Product manufacturing and platforms will be key to revenue and margin capture.
(iv) Dealer groups to pursue either backward vertical integration (starting/acquiring a
platform or managed funds business) or sale to a larger diversified group.
(v) Sector consolidation to continue (eg. sale of COU to CBA; sale of DKN to IFL;
acquisitions of unlisted wealth management firms).
(vi) New growth option for advisers through the introduction of scaled advice.
(vii) Insurance sales outside of super funds to benefit.
(viii) Major banks will benefit overall given their platform market dominance.
4. Our preferred business models have the following characteristics:
(i) Vertically integrated (across product manufacture, platforms and distribution).
(ii) Less focus on distribution revenue relative to overall revenue.
(iii) An existing fee-for-service revenue model.
(iv) A strong balance sheet to facilitate sector consolidation.
5. Investment implications are:
(i) Buy stocks with valuation support to protect against the risk of earnings re-basing to
the downside.
(ii) Buy vertically integrated stocks given they will face less exposure to margin squeeze
in vulnerable elements of the value chain (eg. distribution) and are more likely to be
acquired.
3. 3
VALUATION
Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation confirms our view that SFW offers upside to a strategic
buyer, either to be integrated into a wider business franchise or even possibly as a break-up
play for a financial buyer/private equity. Table 1.
TABLE 1: SUM-OF-THE-PARTS VALUATION
TABLE 2: BLENDED VALUATION
Methodology Key Inputs Value ($ps)
Discounted Cash Flow 13.5% WACC $0.59
Capitalisation of Earnings 7.5x FY12E EV/EBITDA $0.45
SOTP Valuation Table 1 $0.42
Average $0.49
Source: EAP estimates
POSSIBLE ACQUIRERS
The following categories of buyer would likely consider SFW as a target:
Regional banks (BEN BOQ SUN) who are looking for new growth options given the
challenge of a low credit growth environment.
Third tier lending institutions (MYS WBB) who lack a broad wealth management
offering.
Trustee companies (EQT TRU) seeking revenue diversification.
Diversified wealth managers (PPT BTT) seeking increased distribution networks,
revenue diversification and mitigation of key person risk (ie. star funds management
talent). Historically, financial planners linked to large wealth management groups will
allocate ~70% of their sales to their group’s own products.
Private equity buyers with financial services experience seeking either a break-up
play or “buy and build” bolt-on acquisition eg. CHAMP, Ironbridge, Propel etc..
“Back door listing” vehicle for a private wealth management business.
A listed merger partner, such as PLB and SFW.
We expect that major banks and AMP would struggle to overcome anti-trust issues in
acquiring SFW.
5. 5
RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS
Positive Stock is expected to outperform the S&P/ASX 200 over the coming 24 months
Neutral Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P/ASX 200 over the coming 24 months
Negative Stock is expected to underperform the S&P/ASX 200 over the coming 24 months
Speculative Stock has limited history from which to derive a fundamental investment view or its prospects
are highly dependent on event risk, eg. Successful exploration, scientific breakthrough, high
commodity prices, regulatory change, etc.
Suspended Stock is temporarily suspended due to compliance with applicable regulatory and/or Evans &
Partners policies in circumstances where Evans & Partners is acting in an advisory capacity.
Not Rated Stock is not included in our investment research universe.
Research Criteria Definitions
Recommendations are primarily determined with reference to how a stock ranks relative to the S&P/ASX 200 on
the following criteria:
Valuation Rolling 12 month prospective multiples (composite of Price-to-Earnings Ratio, Dividend
Yield and EV/EBITDA), or long-term NPV for resource stocks.
Earnings Outlook Forecast 2 year EPS growth.
Earnings Momentum Percentage change in the current consensus EPS estimate for the stock (rolling 1 year
forward basis) over the consensus EPS estimate for the stock 3 months ago.
Shareholder Returns Composite of forecast ROE (rolling 1 year forward basis) and the percentage change in
ROE over 2 years.
Debt Servicing Capacity Rolling 12 month EBIT Interest Cover ratio.
Cyclical Risk Qualitative assessment of the 2 year outlook for a stock/industry’s profit cycle.
Industry Quality Qualitative assessment of an industry’s growth/returns potential and company specific
management capability.
Financial Transparency If we don’t understand it, we won’t recommend it.
For stocks where Evans & Partners does not generate its own forecasts, Bloomberg consensus data is used.
Analysts can introduce other factors when determining their recommendation, with any material factors stated in
the written research where appropriate.
6. 6
GENERAL RESEARCH DISCLAIMER, WARNING & DISCLOSURES
This document is provided by Evans and Partners ABN 85 125 338 785, holder of AFSL 318075.
The information is general advice only and does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on
the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. If
the advice relates to a financial product that is the subject of a Product Disclosure Statement (e.g. unlisted managed funds) investors should obtain
the PDS and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.
The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation with
respect to the purchase or sale of securities. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not an infallible indicator of future performance and future returns are not guaranteed.
Any opinions and/or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and Evans and Partners is not under any
obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be
reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Evans and Partners.
EVANS AND PARTNERS DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
Evans and Partners and its respective officers and associates may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this
material.
Evans and Partners does, and seeks to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports.
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RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, George Gabriel, CFA, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject investment
theme &/or company securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report.
RESEARCH ANALYST DISCLOSURE OF INTEREST
I, George Gabriel, CFA, &/or entities in which I have a pecuniary interest, have an exposure to the following securities &/or managed products: TGA.
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Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Evans & Partners, its directors, employees & agents accept no liability or responsibility whatsoever
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