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Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference
Issued by Wilson HTM Ltd ABN 68 010 529 665 - Australian Financial Services Licence No 238375, a participant of ASX Group and should be read in conjunction with the disclosures and disclaimer in this report.
Important disclosures regarding companies that are subject of this report and an explanation of recommendations can be found at the end of this document.
Welcome to the:
Aged Care, Health Services
and Retirement Villages
Conference
Monday, 27 October 2014
A Leading Wealth Manager and
Adviser to Emerging Companies
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Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference
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Notes
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Agenda
SESSION 1. HEALTH SERVICES AND MEDTECH SESSION 3. AGED CARE SECTOR COMPANY PRESENTATIONS
FORMAT: 20-minute presentations, followed by 10-minute Q&As, with questions from
the audience; hosted by George Gabriel.
8.45am to 9.15am
Azure Healthcare Limited (AZV)
Robert Grey, CEO
9.15am to 9.45am
Simavita Limited (SVA)
Philippa Lewis, CEO
9.45am to 10.15am
Paragon Care Limited (PGC)
Mark Simari, CEO
1.00pm to 1.45pm
Japara Healthcare (JHC)
Andrew Sudholz, CEO
1.45pm to 2.45pm
KEYNOTE SPEECH #2: “Regulatory Framework: Recent Changes and Outlook”
Gary Barnier, Managing Director, Opal Aged Care
Member of Aged Care Financing Authority & Aged Care Sector Committee
2.45pm to 3.00pm Coffee break
3.00pm to 3.30pm
Eureka Group Holdings (EGH)
Robin Levison, Chairman
SESSION 2. AGED CARE SECTOR PANEL DISCUSSION –
Mergers, Acquisitions and Private Equity in the Aged Care Sector
SESSION 4. RETIREMENT VILLAGES COMPANY PRESENTATION
10.15am to 10.45am
KEYNOTE SPEECH #1: “Investing in Aged Care: The Second Wave”
Cam Ansell, Principal
10.45am to 11.00am Coffee break
11.00am to 12.00pm
PANEL DISCUSSION: “The Third Wave: Mergers, Acquisitions and Private
Equity” hosted by George Gabriel.
Japara Healthcare Limited (JHC) | Andrew Sudholz, CEO
Nelson Partners | David Nelson, Principal
Ansell Strategic | Cam Ansell, Principal;
Quadrant Private Equity | Marcus Darville, Director
12.00pm to 1.00pm Panel discussion overflow & lunch
3.30pm to 4.15pm
Ingenia (INA)
Simon Owen, CEO
4.15pm Drinks
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Azure Healthcare Limited (AZV) BUY, TP $0.69
Analyst: George Gabriel
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
AZV provides nurse call management hardware & software systems for ~8,500 health care sites (ie. hospitals and aged care) in Australia (52% of FY14 revenue), North
America (30%), Asia (12%) and Europe (7%). Refer WHTM initiation report, “A healthy call”, dated 2 Sept 2014, by George Gabriel.
INVESTMENT THESIS
1. AZV is an attractive target to an international business with a diversified health product portfolio which can be cross-sold into AZV’s customer base; 2. Competitive
advantage of its integrated hardware/software offering 3. High organic growth outlook, particularly in the USA. In FY13, revenue grew +23% and in FY14 +39%. Management
forecasts sector growth of 20-25% per annum, and we expect that AZV should outperform the sector. 4. Multiple barriers to entry 5. Experienced Executive Chairman Robert
Grey 6. Strong balance sheet 7. High cash conversion ratios.
KEY CATALYSTS
1. Expansion of the US factory’s productive capacity.
2. Ongoing high sales growth.
RISKS
Key person risk.
Mismanaging the pace of growth..
BOARD AND MANAGEMENT
Robert Grey – Chairman and CEO
- Mr Grey founded Austco in 1986, and was responsible for increasing revenues from $5 million in 1989 to $19 million prior to the Company’s acquisition by TSV
Holdings Limited on 1 January 2007.
- Throughout his career, Mr Grey has been involved in electronic communications in Australia and internationally.
- Initially, he was an engineer in telephony system development and installations, and later led the Austco’s expansion into new markets and territories.
- Mr Grey holds a Bachelor of Engineering in Communications from Curtin University, WA and a Diploma of Electronic Engineering from Mount Lawley College.
William Brooks – Non-Executive Director
Greg Lewis – Non-Executive Director
Jason D’Arcy – CFO
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Azure Healthcare Limited (AZV) BUY, TP $0.69
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION
Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 20.6x 19.3x 13.1x
Revenue 31.3 38.5 47.4 Market Cap./Revenue 2.6x 2.1x 1.7x
EBITDA 3.9 6.1 9.1 EV/EBITDA 21.1x 13.4x 9.1x
Margin 12.5% 15.9% 19.2% EV/EBIT 24.0x 14.5x 9.8x
EBIT 3.4 5.7 8.4 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margin 10.9% 14.7% 17.8%
Normalised NPAT 4.1 4.4 6.3 1-Year Growth
Margin 13.0% 11.3% 13.3% Revenue 39.2% 23.0% 23.0%
SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA 146.2% 57.4% 47.9%
Normalised EPS (cps) 2.04 2.18 3.22 EBIT 342.7% 566.8% 843.1%
Ticker AZV Dividend (cps) 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPAT 243.4% 6.5% 45.1%
Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS 265.9% 6.9% 47.5%
Price $0.42
52-Week Low $0.19 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS
52-Week High $0.48 ($m)
Stock return YTD (inc. div.) 151.4% Cash from Operations 0.43 4.07 4.59 FY14 FY15e FY16e
Cash from Investing -0.52 -0.64 -0.64 ROA 19.2% 16.9% 19.3%
Diluted Shares (m) 189.7 Cash from Financing 0.00 0.00 0.00 ROE 28.4% 23.5% 25.7%
Market Capitalisation ($m) 82.5 Change in Cash -0.09 3.43 3.95
Net Debt (cash) -0.3 FINANCIAL STABILITY
Enterprise Value ($m) 82.2 Balance Sheet
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e
Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 21.3 25.8 32.7 Net Debt (cash) -0.3 -3.7 -7.4
ASX 300 Weight 0.00% Total Liabilities 6.9 7.3 8.1 Net Debt/Equity -1.8% -19.9% -30.1%
Average Trading Volume (3 months) 82,128 Total Equity 14.4 18.5 24.6 Net Debt/EV -0.3% -4.5% -9.0%
1-Year Beta 0.79 Interest Cover 38.5x n.a n.a
Source: Wilson HTM estimates
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
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Simavita Limited (SVA) BUY, TP $0.90
Analyst: Shane Storey
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Simavita is an emerging medical device company in the market for adult incontinence management. The company sells medical equipment, software and consumables that
assist aged care facilities to assess and manage the logistics and costs associated with toileting their residents. Channel checks from early adopting aged care facilities in
Australia suggest that operators are realising both cost savings and productivity gains using Simavita’s “SIM” technology. US sales have only just commenced in recent
months, via an exclusive marketing partner, Medline Industries. Refer WHTM initiation report, “Climbing the corporate bladder”, dated 29 Sept 2014, by Shane Storey.
INVESTMENT THESIS
We think this company can be a big beneficiary from the inexorable increase in the global population age. In many ways, Simavita could develop into the perfect exposure to
the ‘ageing population’ investment theme. There is a universality in what it is setting out to achieve. Simavita’s flagship product, SIM Technology, will play an important role in
the long-term, fundamental trend of healthcare cost containment with a focus on the aged care facility sector, in our view.
KEY CATALYSTS
Updates on Australia and US roll-out; New distribution agreements; Regulatory changes that encourage documented, evidence based approach to incontinence management
and movement towards profitability.
RISKS
Slower than expected sales traction in key first markets (Australia and USA);
Adverse regulatory events (product recalls or manufacturing problems);
Execution risks;
Access to development capital.
BOARD AND MANAGEMENT
Philippa Lewis – CEO
- Joined in 2007. Philippa has had over 30 years of local and international business experience across multiple industry sectors including healthcare, patent
management, import, distribution and manufacturing. Philippa was the CEO and founder of Sanicare, an Australasian import and distribution business for adult
incontinence products which she sold in 2005. Philippa’s academic qualifications span Business and Law.
Thomas Howitt – CFO
Ari Bergman – Interim Chairman
Damien Haakman – Non-Executive Director
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Simavita Limited (SVA) BUY, TP $0.90
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION
Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E -1.5x -4.6x -10.2x
Revenue 0.3 2.0 8.1 Market Cap./Revenue 104.8x 18.5x 4.5x
EBITDA -11.4 -7.5 -4.8 EV/EBITDA -2.6x -4.0x -6.2x
Margin n.m -376.9% -59.6% EV/EBIT -2.6x -4.1x -6.5x
EBIT -11.5 -7.3 -4.6 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margin n.m -367.2% -57.0%
Normalised NPAT -10.5 -7.2 -4.5 1-Year Growth
Margin n.m -364.2% -55.8% Revenue 10.7% 467.9% 306.9%
SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA -57.5% 34.1% 35.6%
Normalised EPS (cps) -34.02 -10.82 -4.89 EBIT n.m n.m -460.7%
Ticker SVA Dividend (cps) 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPAT -42.1% 31.0% 37.7%
Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS 89.7% 68.2% 54.8%
Price $0.50
52-Week Low $0.41 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS
52-Week High $1.07 ($m)
Stock return YTD (inc. div.) -14.5% Cash from Operations -8.29 -8.48 -5.29 FY14 FY15e FY16e
Cash from Investing 0.05 -0.06 -0.09 ROA -118.4% -50.8% -40.3%
Diluted Shares (m) 73.4 Cash from Financing 14.36 13.10 0.00 ROE -139.3% -54.0% -50.8%
Market Capitalisation ($m) 36.7 Change in Cash 6.12 4.55 -5.38
Net Debt (cash) -6.8 FINANCIAL STABILITY
Enterprise Value ($m) 29.8 Balance Sheet
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e
Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 8.9 14.2 11.2 Net Debt (cash) -6.8 -11.4 -6.0
ASX 300 Weight 0.0% Total Liabilities 1.3 0.8 2.3 Net Debt/Equity -90.9% -85.1% -67.7%
Average Trading Volume (3 months) 13,746 Total Equity 7.5 13.4 8.9 Net Debt/EV -22.9% -38.2% -20.2%
1-Year Beta 0.62 Interest Cover -57.7x 123.5x 47.1x
Source: WHTM estimates
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$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14
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Paragon Care Limited (PGC) N/R
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Paragon Care is consolidating specialist medical distributors to create a “one-stop shop” service provider for health care sites. PGC supplies durable medical equipment and
consumable medical products in Australia and New Zealand. It has exclusive distribution rights in Australia for leading brands of beds, mattresses, stainless steel equipment,
storage and shelving solutions, plus a range of consumable items and other capital equipment items. PGC sells to hospitals (public and private), as aged care and primary
care providers. Hospitals are the largest market representing approximately 80% of revenues.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The “one-stop shop” strategy is expected to drive increased customer penetration as customers seek greater convenience and pricing benefits from PGC’s economies of
scale. The market size is estimated at c.$300m p.a. for capital equipment and in excess of $10b for consumables and medical products. We expect this to The underlying
business is driven by increasing demand in the acute and aged care sector driven by an ageing population and increased investment by governments and private providers.
KEY CATALYSTS
Further contract wins in the acute and aged care markets
Business acquisitions – the industry is fragmented and business owners are looking at exit strategies
New markets – expansion into the private hospital market given current low penetration
New distribution agreements – with global medical durable goods suppliers to expand product range. As PGC increases in scale and its reputation grows, its appeal
increases to such suppliers.
RISKS
Distribution risk – PGC is primarily a distributor leaving them open to product development of others and change of ownership risk.
Currency risk - PGC sources most of its product from offshore, either as imported finished goods or from contract manufacturers of its own proprietary designed products.
Regulatory reform – the healthcare industry is highly regulated and is dependent upon government funding and PHI for the majority of its revenues.
BOARD AND MANAGEMENT
Mark Simari – Managing Director
- As MD since 2008, Mr Simari has been the driver of the PGC restructure. He was previously involved with the restructure and growth of Interprac Financial Planning
and restructure of DKN Financial group.
Shane Tanner – Non Executive Chairman
Michael Newton – Non Executive Director
Brett Chong – Non Executive Director
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Paragon Care Limited (PGC) N/R
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION
Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 17.5x 9.0x 9.2x
Revenue 19.4 30.7 30.0 Market Cap./Revenue 1.2x 0.7x 0.8x
EBITDA 1.8 3.7 3.7 EV/EBITDA 12.0x 5.8x 5.7x
Margin 9.2% 12.0% 12.4% EV/EBIT 13.9x 6.2x 6.3x
EBIT 1.5 3.4 3.4 Dividend Yield 3.6% 4.3% 5.0%
Margin 7.9% 11.2% 11.3%
Normalised NPAT 1.1 2.6 2.5 1-Year Growth
Margin 5.6% 8.5% 8.3% Revenue 13.5% 58.1% -2.1%
SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA 19.0% 106.4% 1.4%
Normalised EPS (cps) 2.00 3.90 3.80 EBIT 27.7% 343.4% 339.8%
Ticker PGC Dividend (cps) 1.25 1.50 1.75 NPAT 46.6% 139.9% -4.0%
Payout ratio 62.5% 38.5% 46.1% EPS 17.6% 95.0% -2.6%
Price $0.35
52-Week Low $0.23 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS
52-Week High $0.49 ($m)
Stock return YTD (inc. div.) -14.7% Cash from Operations -2.09 n.a n.a FY14 FY15e FY16e
Cash from Investing 0.00 n.a n.a ROA 4.0% n.a n.a
Diluted Shares (m) 67.1 Cash from Financing 0.00 n.a n.a ROE 6.0% n.a n.a
Market Capitalisation ($m) 22.8 Change in Cash 0.00 n.a n.a
Net Debt (cash) -1.5 FINANCIAL STABILITY
Enterprise Value ($m) 21.3 Balance Sheet
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e
Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 27.0 n.a n.a Net Debt (cash) -1.5 n.a n.a
ASX 300 Weight 0.00% Total Liabilities 8.7 n.a n.a Net Debt/Equity -8.2% n.a n.a
Average Trading Volume (3 months) 25,254 Total Equity 18.2 n.a n.a Net Debt/EV -7.0% n.a n.a
1-Year Beta 0.22 Interest Cover 3.8x n.a n.a
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
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Japara Healthcare (JHC) BUY, TP $2.77
Analyst: George Gabriel
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Japara Healthcare Limited (JHC) is an operator of residential aged care facilities in Australia. Japara has grown from inception 9 years ago to 3,391 beds, comprising ~2%
market share. Its portfolio is overweight Victoria (81% total beds), with a presence in South Australia (10% total), New South Wales (5%) and Tasmania (4%). Japara has high
leverage to new RAD inflow given ~54% of its portfolio comprises (what were previously classified as) high care beds. Refer WHTM initiation report, “Riding the silver
tsunami: finding shareholder value in aged care”, dated 8 October 2014, by analyst George Gabriel. .
INVESTMENT THESIS
We estimate Japara can generate from 20% to 46% EPS upside as it invests $193m in net RAD inflow over 2.5 years into value-adding acquisitions. This would increase
WHTM’s DCF valuation from $2.94 per share to $3.54 to $4.30 per share. Refer WHTM report, “Valuing Japara’s acquisition upside”, dated 20 October 2014, by analyst
George Gabriel. .
KEY CATALYSTS
The key catalysts required to re-rate Japara are: 1) continuing RAD inflows in line with prospectus expectations; 2) continuing value-adding acquisitions; and 3) realisation of
brownfield development opportunities.
RISKS
Liquidity risk
Acquisition risk
Refundable Accommodation Deposit (RAD) risk
BOARD AND MANAGEMENT
Andrew Sudholz – CEO
- Mr Sudholz was a founding shareholder and executive director of JHC.
- He has more than 30 years’ experience in the real estate, healthcare and professional services industries. Prior to JHC, Andrew was a global partner of Arthur
Andersen Group, a partner of Ernst & Young and a national board member of the Property Council of Australia.
- Andrew holds an Associate Diploma of Valuations from the Royal Melbourne Institution of Technology.
Linda Nicholls – Chairman
Richard England – Non-Executive Director
John McKenna – CFO.
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Japara Healthcare (JHC) BUY, TP $2.77
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION
Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 28.0x 20.8x 17.7x
Revenue 241.3 265.9 294.7 Market Cap./Revenue 2.6x 2.4x 2.1x
EBITDA 41.9 51.4 61.3 EV/EBITDA 14.7x 12.0x 10.1x
Margin 17.4% 19.3% 20.8% EV/EBIT 18.7x 14.2x 11.6x
EBIT 32.9 43.5 53.2 Dividend Yield 0.0% 4.8% 5.7%
Margin 13.6% 16.4% 18.1%
Normalised NPAT 22.4 30.0 35.4 1-Year Growth
Margin 9.3% 11.3% 12.0% Revenue n.a 10.2% 10.8%
SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA n.a 22.7% 19.2%
Normalised EPS (cps) 8.51 11.42 13.46 EBIT n.a 32.2% 22.3%
Ticker JHC Dividend (cps) 0.00 11.40 13.50 NPAT n.a 34.2% 17.9%
Payout ratio 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% EPS n.a 34.2% 17.9%
Price $2.38
52-Week Low $2.00 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS
52-Week High $2.72 ($m)
Stock return YTD (inc. div.) 19.8% Cash from Operations 41.20 116.07 73.74 FY14 FY15e FY16e
Cash from Investing -14.37 -46.25 -7.48 ROA 2.8% 3.4% 3.9%
Diluted Shares (m) 263.0 Cash from Financing 0.00 -30.03 -35.41 ROE 4.4% 5.8% 6.9%
Market Capitalisation ($m) 628.7 Change in Cash 26.83 39.79 30.86
Net Debt (cash) -12.3 FINANCIAL STABILITY
Enterprise Value ($m) 616.4 Balance Sheet
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e
Sold Interest (% free float) 281.5% Total Assets 800.0 871.0 901.3 Net Debt (cash) -12.3 -52.1 -82.9
ASX 300 Weight 0.54% Total Liabilities 286.0 357.0 387.3 Net Debt/Equity -2.4% -10.1% -16.1%
Average Trading Volume (3 months) 1.31m Total Equity 514.0 514.0 514.0 Net Debt/EV -2.0% -8.4% -13.5%
1-Year Beta 0.32 Interest Cover 34.2x 69.3x 20.0x
Source: Wilson HTM estimates
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
$2.80
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14
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Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) N/R
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Eureka Group Holdings Limited owns and manages senior independent living communities in Australia. EGH provides quality and affordable rental accommodation for seniors
and disability pensioners. EGH owns a small portfolio of accommodation villages, and is a property asset manager of 25 villages nationally containing over 1,400 units. The
company was formerly known as SCV Group Limited and changed its name to Eureka Group Holdings Limited in October 2010.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Eureka is well positioned to capitalise on the growing demand for seniors’ retirement accommodation. Research indicates that 15,000 new retirement dwellings are required
per year over the coming decades. Eureka has recently improved its balance sheet and revenue mix and is rapidly increasing its scale.
KEY CATALYSTS
Further acquisitions of high returning senior rental village assets.
Sale of underperforming management rights agreements.
RISKS
Lower occupancy rates.
Declining property prices.
BOARD AND MANAGEMENT
Robin Levison – Non-Executive Chairman
- Robin joined EGH in Dec 2013.
- From 2005 to 2012, Robin was Managing Director and CEO of Industrea Limited. Robin has been credited with Industrea’s remarkable turnaround. With its share
price at just 2cps when he joined in Sept 2004, he turned the business around and eventually sold it to global conglomerate General Electric. He was then appointed
Director Global Acquisitions for GE Mining.
- Robin is also Executive Chairman of ASX listed PPK Group Limited.
- He holds a Masters of Business Administration from the University of Queensland and is a Chartered Accountant.
Lachlan McIntosh – Non-Executive Director
Sharon Alderwick – General Manager
Ryan Maddock – CFO
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Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) N/R
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION
Income Statement FY12 FY13 FY14
($m) FY12 FY13 FY14 P/E 20.0x n.a 20.0x
Revenue 14.0 9.8 9.5 Market Cap./Revenue 1.6x 2.3x 2.4x
EBITDA 1.6 0.9 0.7 EV/EBITDA 18.6x 33.0x 42.5x
Margin 11.4% 9.2% 7.4% EV/EBIT 19.8x n.m n.m
EBIT 1.5 -0.1 -0.1 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margin 10.7% -1.0% -1.1%
Normalised NPAT 0.7 0.1 0.7 1-Year Growth
Margin 5.0% 1.0% 7.4% Revenue -0.7% -30.0% -3.1%
SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA n.m -43.8% -22.2%
Normalised EPS (cps) 1.00 0.00 1.00 EBIT -285.8% -106.7% 0.0%
Ticker EGH Dividend (cps) 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPAT -166.6% -85.7% 600.0%
Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS n.m n.m n.m
Price $0.20
52-Week Low $0.06 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS
52-Week High $0.23 ($m)
Stock return YTD (inc. div.) 207.7% Cash from Operations 0.71 -0.40 0.70 FY12 FY13 FY14
Cash from Investing 0.20 -0.10 -4.90 ROA 6.7% 1.1% 4.5%
Diluted Shares (m) 113.1 Cash from Financing 0.20 0.20 5.00 ROE 18.9% 2.5% 10.8%
Market Capitalisation ($m) 22.6 Change in Cash 1.11 -0.30 0.80
Net Debt (cash) 7.1 FINANCIAL STABILITY
Enterprise Value ($m) 29.7 Balance Sheet
($m) FY12 FY13 FY14
Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 10.4 9.4 15.7 Net Debt (cash) 4.2 7.1 7.1
ASX 300 Weight 0.00% Total Liabilities 6.7 5.4 9.2 Net Debt/Equity 113.5% 177.5% 109.2%
Average Trading Volume (3 months) 7,457 Total Equity 3.7 4.0 6.5 Net Debt/EV 14.1% 23.9% 23.9%
1-Year Beta 0.72 Interest Cover 2.4x 1.9x 1.3x
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company Accounts
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
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Ingenia Communities Group (INA) N/R
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
INA, which was previously known as ING Real Estate Community Living Group, was formed on January 11, 2007 and is an independent real estate investment trust. INA
primarily owns, manages, and develops seniors’ housing communities. INA also specializes in student housing communities.
INA is based in Sydney, but invests in the real estate markets of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. INA has 57 Australian communities.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Ingenia is a leading provider of affordable Australian seniors housing built around two key portfolios generating recurrent operating cashflows. This scalable platform is well
positioned for further expansion through embedded capital light low risk development and further accretive acquisitions.
KEY CATALYSTS
Divest non core assets
Operational improvements
Acquisition of additional parks
RISKS
Decreasing real estate prices
Changes to government legislation regarding rental assistance for older Australians
Availability of suitable sites (i.e. ability to purchase caravan parks and change the usage to be more permanent)
BOARD AND MANAGEMENT
Simon Owen – CEO
- Joined as CEO in November 2009.
- He initiated the internalisation of management and exit from the ING Group as well as INA’s recent focus on lifestyle parks. He brings in-depth experience in the
retirement sector and is the immediate past National President of the Retirement Villages Association, the peak industry advocacy group for the owners, operators,
developers and managers of retirement communities in Australia.
- Prior roles include CEO of Aevum (a formerly listed retirement company). Mr Owen is a qualified accountant (CPA) with postgraduate diplomas in finance and
investment, and advanced accounting.
Tania Betts – CFO
James Hazel – Independent Non-Executive Chairman
Philip Clark – Independent Director
27 October 2014
Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference
Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 18
Ingenia Communities Group (INA) N/R
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION
Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 25.7x 14.6x 10.9x
Revenue 44.2 75.9 95.6 Market Cap./Revenue 8.7x 5.1x 4.0x
EBITDA 14.0 24.9 33.3 EV/EBITDA 30.0x 16.9x 12.6x
Margin 31.7% 32.8% 34.8% EV/EBIT 35.5x 27.1x 15.2x
EBIT 11.9 15.5 27.7 Dividend Yield 2.6% 3.9% 5.1%
Margin 26.8% 20.4% 29.0%
Normalised NPAT 11.1 20.1 26.3 1-Year Growth
Margin 25.1% 26.4% 27.5% Revenue 136.1% 71.7% 26.0%
SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA 6.4% 77.7% 33.5%
Normalised EPS (cps) 1.69 2.99 4.00 EBIT 38.2% 30.8% 78.7%
Ticker INA Dividend (cps) 1.15 1.70 2.20 NPAT 60.9% 80.6% 30.9%
Payout ratio 67.6% 56.9% 55.0% EPS 14.1% 76.5% 33.9%
Price $0.44
52-Week Low $0.43 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS
52-Week High $0.53 ($m)
Stock return YTD (inc. div.) -8.5% Cash from Operations 14.24 n.a n.a FY14 FY15e FY16e
Cash from Investing -126.08 n.a n.a ROA 1.9% n.a n.a
Diluted Shares (m) 878.9 Cash from Financing 89.01 n.a n.a ROE 4.6% n.a n.a
Market Capitalisation ($m) 386.7 Change in Cash -22.83 n.a n.a
Net Debt (cash) 33.7 FINANCIAL STABILITY
Enterprise Value ($m) 420.4 Balance Sheet
($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e
Sold Interest (% free float) 59.8% Total Assets 574.9 n.a n.a Net Debt (cash) 33.7 n.a n.a
ASX 300 Weight 0.35% Total Liabilities 334.7 n.a n.a Net Debt/Equity 14.0% n.a n.a
Average Trading Volume (3 months) 492,585 Total Equity 240.2 n.a n.a Net Debt/EV 8.0% n.a n.a
1-Year Beta 0.66 Interest Cover 3.2x n.a n.a
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
27 October 2014
Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference
Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 19
CONTACT DETAILS:
George Gabriel, CFA , Senior Equities Analyst
george.gabriel@wilsonhtm.com.au
0421 630 435
Disclaimer
Whilst Wilson HTM Ltd believes the information contained in this communication is based on reliable information, no warranty is given as to its accuracy and persons relying on this information
do so at their own risk. To the extent permitted by law Wilson HTM Ltd disclaims all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or
damage (including consequential loss or damage) however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information. Any projections contained in this
communication are estimates only. Such projections are subject to market influences and contingent upon matters outside the control of Wilson HTM Ltd and therefore may not be realised in the
future.
The advice contained in this document is general advice. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs and because of that, any person
should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the client’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Those acting upon such information without
first consulting one of Wilson HTM Ltd investment advisors do so entirely at their own risk. This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase any securities and should not be relied
upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. If the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product – the client should obtain a
Product Disclosure Statement relating to the product and consider the Statement before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. This communication is not to be disclosed in
whole or part or used by any other party without Wilson HTM Ltd’s prior written consent.
Disclosure of Interest
The Directors of Wilson HTM advise that at the date of this report they and their associates have relevant interests in the securities mentioned in this report. They also advise that Wilson HTM
and Wilson HTM Corporate Finance A.B.N. 65 057 547 323 and their associates have received and may receive commissions or fees from these companies in relation to advice or dealings in
the securities. Some or all of Wilson HTM authorised representatives may be remunerated wholly or partly by way of commission.
In producing research reports, members of Wilson HTM Research may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs
of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Wilson HTM considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site
visit or meeting.
Please see disclosures at http://www.wilsonhtm.com.au/Disclosures. Disclosures applicable to companies included in this report can be found in the latest relevant published research.
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Wilsons Aged care, Health services and Retirement villages conference monday 27 october, 2014

  • 1. Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Issued by Wilson HTM Ltd ABN 68 010 529 665 - Australian Financial Services Licence No 238375, a participant of ASX Group and should be read in conjunction with the disclosures and disclaimer in this report. Important disclosures regarding companies that are subject of this report and an explanation of recommendations can be found at the end of this document. Welcome to the: Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Monday, 27 October 2014 A Leading Wealth Manager and Adviser to Emerging Companies
  • 2. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 2 Notes
  • 3. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 3 Agenda SESSION 1. HEALTH SERVICES AND MEDTECH SESSION 3. AGED CARE SECTOR COMPANY PRESENTATIONS FORMAT: 20-minute presentations, followed by 10-minute Q&As, with questions from the audience; hosted by George Gabriel. 8.45am to 9.15am Azure Healthcare Limited (AZV) Robert Grey, CEO 9.15am to 9.45am Simavita Limited (SVA) Philippa Lewis, CEO 9.45am to 10.15am Paragon Care Limited (PGC) Mark Simari, CEO 1.00pm to 1.45pm Japara Healthcare (JHC) Andrew Sudholz, CEO 1.45pm to 2.45pm KEYNOTE SPEECH #2: “Regulatory Framework: Recent Changes and Outlook” Gary Barnier, Managing Director, Opal Aged Care Member of Aged Care Financing Authority & Aged Care Sector Committee 2.45pm to 3.00pm Coffee break 3.00pm to 3.30pm Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) Robin Levison, Chairman SESSION 2. AGED CARE SECTOR PANEL DISCUSSION – Mergers, Acquisitions and Private Equity in the Aged Care Sector SESSION 4. RETIREMENT VILLAGES COMPANY PRESENTATION 10.15am to 10.45am KEYNOTE SPEECH #1: “Investing in Aged Care: The Second Wave” Cam Ansell, Principal 10.45am to 11.00am Coffee break 11.00am to 12.00pm PANEL DISCUSSION: “The Third Wave: Mergers, Acquisitions and Private Equity” hosted by George Gabriel. Japara Healthcare Limited (JHC) | Andrew Sudholz, CEO Nelson Partners | David Nelson, Principal Ansell Strategic | Cam Ansell, Principal; Quadrant Private Equity | Marcus Darville, Director 12.00pm to 1.00pm Panel discussion overflow & lunch 3.30pm to 4.15pm Ingenia (INA) Simon Owen, CEO 4.15pm Drinks
  • 4. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 4 Azure Healthcare Limited (AZV) BUY, TP $0.69 Analyst: George Gabriel BUSINESS DESCRIPTION AZV provides nurse call management hardware & software systems for ~8,500 health care sites (ie. hospitals and aged care) in Australia (52% of FY14 revenue), North America (30%), Asia (12%) and Europe (7%). Refer WHTM initiation report, “A healthy call”, dated 2 Sept 2014, by George Gabriel. INVESTMENT THESIS 1. AZV is an attractive target to an international business with a diversified health product portfolio which can be cross-sold into AZV’s customer base; 2. Competitive advantage of its integrated hardware/software offering 3. High organic growth outlook, particularly in the USA. In FY13, revenue grew +23% and in FY14 +39%. Management forecasts sector growth of 20-25% per annum, and we expect that AZV should outperform the sector. 4. Multiple barriers to entry 5. Experienced Executive Chairman Robert Grey 6. Strong balance sheet 7. High cash conversion ratios. KEY CATALYSTS 1. Expansion of the US factory’s productive capacity. 2. Ongoing high sales growth. RISKS Key person risk. Mismanaging the pace of growth.. BOARD AND MANAGEMENT Robert Grey – Chairman and CEO - Mr Grey founded Austco in 1986, and was responsible for increasing revenues from $5 million in 1989 to $19 million prior to the Company’s acquisition by TSV Holdings Limited on 1 January 2007. - Throughout his career, Mr Grey has been involved in electronic communications in Australia and internationally. - Initially, he was an engineer in telephony system development and installations, and later led the Austco’s expansion into new markets and territories. - Mr Grey holds a Bachelor of Engineering in Communications from Curtin University, WA and a Diploma of Electronic Engineering from Mount Lawley College. William Brooks – Non-Executive Director Greg Lewis – Non-Executive Director Jason D’Arcy – CFO
  • 5. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 5
  • 6. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 6 Azure Healthcare Limited (AZV) BUY, TP $0.69 SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 20.6x 19.3x 13.1x Revenue 31.3 38.5 47.4 Market Cap./Revenue 2.6x 2.1x 1.7x EBITDA 3.9 6.1 9.1 EV/EBITDA 21.1x 13.4x 9.1x Margin 12.5% 15.9% 19.2% EV/EBIT 24.0x 14.5x 9.8x EBIT 3.4 5.7 8.4 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Margin 10.9% 14.7% 17.8% Normalised NPAT 4.1 4.4 6.3 1-Year Growth Margin 13.0% 11.3% 13.3% Revenue 39.2% 23.0% 23.0% SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA 146.2% 57.4% 47.9% Normalised EPS (cps) 2.04 2.18 3.22 EBIT 342.7% 566.8% 843.1% Ticker AZV Dividend (cps) 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPAT 243.4% 6.5% 45.1% Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS 265.9% 6.9% 47.5% Price $0.42 52-Week Low $0.19 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS 52-Week High $0.48 ($m) Stock return YTD (inc. div.) 151.4% Cash from Operations 0.43 4.07 4.59 FY14 FY15e FY16e Cash from Investing -0.52 -0.64 -0.64 ROA 19.2% 16.9% 19.3% Diluted Shares (m) 189.7 Cash from Financing 0.00 0.00 0.00 ROE 28.4% 23.5% 25.7% Market Capitalisation ($m) 82.5 Change in Cash -0.09 3.43 3.95 Net Debt (cash) -0.3 FINANCIAL STABILITY Enterprise Value ($m) 82.2 Balance Sheet ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 21.3 25.8 32.7 Net Debt (cash) -0.3 -3.7 -7.4 ASX 300 Weight 0.00% Total Liabilities 6.9 7.3 8.1 Net Debt/Equity -1.8% -19.9% -30.1% Average Trading Volume (3 months) 82,128 Total Equity 14.4 18.5 24.6 Net Debt/EV -0.3% -4.5% -9.0% 1-Year Beta 0.79 Interest Cover 38.5x n.a n.a Source: Wilson HTM estimates $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60
  • 7. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 7 Simavita Limited (SVA) BUY, TP $0.90 Analyst: Shane Storey BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Simavita is an emerging medical device company in the market for adult incontinence management. The company sells medical equipment, software and consumables that assist aged care facilities to assess and manage the logistics and costs associated with toileting their residents. Channel checks from early adopting aged care facilities in Australia suggest that operators are realising both cost savings and productivity gains using Simavita’s “SIM” technology. US sales have only just commenced in recent months, via an exclusive marketing partner, Medline Industries. Refer WHTM initiation report, “Climbing the corporate bladder”, dated 29 Sept 2014, by Shane Storey. INVESTMENT THESIS We think this company can be a big beneficiary from the inexorable increase in the global population age. In many ways, Simavita could develop into the perfect exposure to the ‘ageing population’ investment theme. There is a universality in what it is setting out to achieve. Simavita’s flagship product, SIM Technology, will play an important role in the long-term, fundamental trend of healthcare cost containment with a focus on the aged care facility sector, in our view. KEY CATALYSTS Updates on Australia and US roll-out; New distribution agreements; Regulatory changes that encourage documented, evidence based approach to incontinence management and movement towards profitability. RISKS Slower than expected sales traction in key first markets (Australia and USA); Adverse regulatory events (product recalls or manufacturing problems); Execution risks; Access to development capital. BOARD AND MANAGEMENT Philippa Lewis – CEO - Joined in 2007. Philippa has had over 30 years of local and international business experience across multiple industry sectors including healthcare, patent management, import, distribution and manufacturing. Philippa was the CEO and founder of Sanicare, an Australasian import and distribution business for adult incontinence products which she sold in 2005. Philippa’s academic qualifications span Business and Law. Thomas Howitt – CFO Ari Bergman – Interim Chairman Damien Haakman – Non-Executive Director
  • 8. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 8
  • 9. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 9 Simavita Limited (SVA) BUY, TP $0.90 SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E -1.5x -4.6x -10.2x Revenue 0.3 2.0 8.1 Market Cap./Revenue 104.8x 18.5x 4.5x EBITDA -11.4 -7.5 -4.8 EV/EBITDA -2.6x -4.0x -6.2x Margin n.m -376.9% -59.6% EV/EBIT -2.6x -4.1x -6.5x EBIT -11.5 -7.3 -4.6 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Margin n.m -367.2% -57.0% Normalised NPAT -10.5 -7.2 -4.5 1-Year Growth Margin n.m -364.2% -55.8% Revenue 10.7% 467.9% 306.9% SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA -57.5% 34.1% 35.6% Normalised EPS (cps) -34.02 -10.82 -4.89 EBIT n.m n.m -460.7% Ticker SVA Dividend (cps) 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPAT -42.1% 31.0% 37.7% Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS 89.7% 68.2% 54.8% Price $0.50 52-Week Low $0.41 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS 52-Week High $1.07 ($m) Stock return YTD (inc. div.) -14.5% Cash from Operations -8.29 -8.48 -5.29 FY14 FY15e FY16e Cash from Investing 0.05 -0.06 -0.09 ROA -118.4% -50.8% -40.3% Diluted Shares (m) 73.4 Cash from Financing 14.36 13.10 0.00 ROE -139.3% -54.0% -50.8% Market Capitalisation ($m) 36.7 Change in Cash 6.12 4.55 -5.38 Net Debt (cash) -6.8 FINANCIAL STABILITY Enterprise Value ($m) 29.8 Balance Sheet ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 8.9 14.2 11.2 Net Debt (cash) -6.8 -11.4 -6.0 ASX 300 Weight 0.0% Total Liabilities 1.3 0.8 2.3 Net Debt/Equity -90.9% -85.1% -67.7% Average Trading Volume (3 months) 13,746 Total Equity 7.5 13.4 8.9 Net Debt/EV -22.9% -38.2% -20.2% 1-Year Beta 0.62 Interest Cover -57.7x 123.5x 47.1x Source: WHTM estimates $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14
  • 10. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 10 Paragon Care Limited (PGC) N/R BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Paragon Care is consolidating specialist medical distributors to create a “one-stop shop” service provider for health care sites. PGC supplies durable medical equipment and consumable medical products in Australia and New Zealand. It has exclusive distribution rights in Australia for leading brands of beds, mattresses, stainless steel equipment, storage and shelving solutions, plus a range of consumable items and other capital equipment items. PGC sells to hospitals (public and private), as aged care and primary care providers. Hospitals are the largest market representing approximately 80% of revenues. INVESTMENT THESIS The “one-stop shop” strategy is expected to drive increased customer penetration as customers seek greater convenience and pricing benefits from PGC’s economies of scale. The market size is estimated at c.$300m p.a. for capital equipment and in excess of $10b for consumables and medical products. We expect this to The underlying business is driven by increasing demand in the acute and aged care sector driven by an ageing population and increased investment by governments and private providers. KEY CATALYSTS Further contract wins in the acute and aged care markets Business acquisitions – the industry is fragmented and business owners are looking at exit strategies New markets – expansion into the private hospital market given current low penetration New distribution agreements – with global medical durable goods suppliers to expand product range. As PGC increases in scale and its reputation grows, its appeal increases to such suppliers. RISKS Distribution risk – PGC is primarily a distributor leaving them open to product development of others and change of ownership risk. Currency risk - PGC sources most of its product from offshore, either as imported finished goods or from contract manufacturers of its own proprietary designed products. Regulatory reform – the healthcare industry is highly regulated and is dependent upon government funding and PHI for the majority of its revenues. BOARD AND MANAGEMENT Mark Simari – Managing Director - As MD since 2008, Mr Simari has been the driver of the PGC restructure. He was previously involved with the restructure and growth of Interprac Financial Planning and restructure of DKN Financial group. Shane Tanner – Non Executive Chairman Michael Newton – Non Executive Director Brett Chong – Non Executive Director
  • 11. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 11 Paragon Care Limited (PGC) N/R SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 17.5x 9.0x 9.2x Revenue 19.4 30.7 30.0 Market Cap./Revenue 1.2x 0.7x 0.8x EBITDA 1.8 3.7 3.7 EV/EBITDA 12.0x 5.8x 5.7x Margin 9.2% 12.0% 12.4% EV/EBIT 13.9x 6.2x 6.3x EBIT 1.5 3.4 3.4 Dividend Yield 3.6% 4.3% 5.0% Margin 7.9% 11.2% 11.3% Normalised NPAT 1.1 2.6 2.5 1-Year Growth Margin 5.6% 8.5% 8.3% Revenue 13.5% 58.1% -2.1% SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA 19.0% 106.4% 1.4% Normalised EPS (cps) 2.00 3.90 3.80 EBIT 27.7% 343.4% 339.8% Ticker PGC Dividend (cps) 1.25 1.50 1.75 NPAT 46.6% 139.9% -4.0% Payout ratio 62.5% 38.5% 46.1% EPS 17.6% 95.0% -2.6% Price $0.35 52-Week Low $0.23 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS 52-Week High $0.49 ($m) Stock return YTD (inc. div.) -14.7% Cash from Operations -2.09 n.a n.a FY14 FY15e FY16e Cash from Investing 0.00 n.a n.a ROA 4.0% n.a n.a Diluted Shares (m) 67.1 Cash from Financing 0.00 n.a n.a ROE 6.0% n.a n.a Market Capitalisation ($m) 22.8 Change in Cash 0.00 n.a n.a Net Debt (cash) -1.5 FINANCIAL STABILITY Enterprise Value ($m) 21.3 Balance Sheet ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 27.0 n.a n.a Net Debt (cash) -1.5 n.a n.a ASX 300 Weight 0.00% Total Liabilities 8.7 n.a n.a Net Debt/Equity -8.2% n.a n.a Average Trading Volume (3 months) 25,254 Total Equity 18.2 n.a n.a Net Debt/EV -7.0% n.a n.a 1-Year Beta 0.22 Interest Cover 3.8x n.a n.a Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60
  • 12. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 12 Japara Healthcare (JHC) BUY, TP $2.77 Analyst: George Gabriel BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Japara Healthcare Limited (JHC) is an operator of residential aged care facilities in Australia. Japara has grown from inception 9 years ago to 3,391 beds, comprising ~2% market share. Its portfolio is overweight Victoria (81% total beds), with a presence in South Australia (10% total), New South Wales (5%) and Tasmania (4%). Japara has high leverage to new RAD inflow given ~54% of its portfolio comprises (what were previously classified as) high care beds. Refer WHTM initiation report, “Riding the silver tsunami: finding shareholder value in aged care”, dated 8 October 2014, by analyst George Gabriel. . INVESTMENT THESIS We estimate Japara can generate from 20% to 46% EPS upside as it invests $193m in net RAD inflow over 2.5 years into value-adding acquisitions. This would increase WHTM’s DCF valuation from $2.94 per share to $3.54 to $4.30 per share. Refer WHTM report, “Valuing Japara’s acquisition upside”, dated 20 October 2014, by analyst George Gabriel. . KEY CATALYSTS The key catalysts required to re-rate Japara are: 1) continuing RAD inflows in line with prospectus expectations; 2) continuing value-adding acquisitions; and 3) realisation of brownfield development opportunities. RISKS Liquidity risk Acquisition risk Refundable Accommodation Deposit (RAD) risk BOARD AND MANAGEMENT Andrew Sudholz – CEO - Mr Sudholz was a founding shareholder and executive director of JHC. - He has more than 30 years’ experience in the real estate, healthcare and professional services industries. Prior to JHC, Andrew was a global partner of Arthur Andersen Group, a partner of Ernst & Young and a national board member of the Property Council of Australia. - Andrew holds an Associate Diploma of Valuations from the Royal Melbourne Institution of Technology. Linda Nicholls – Chairman Richard England – Non-Executive Director John McKenna – CFO.
  • 13. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 13
  • 14. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 14 Japara Healthcare (JHC) BUY, TP $2.77 SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 28.0x 20.8x 17.7x Revenue 241.3 265.9 294.7 Market Cap./Revenue 2.6x 2.4x 2.1x EBITDA 41.9 51.4 61.3 EV/EBITDA 14.7x 12.0x 10.1x Margin 17.4% 19.3% 20.8% EV/EBIT 18.7x 14.2x 11.6x EBIT 32.9 43.5 53.2 Dividend Yield 0.0% 4.8% 5.7% Margin 13.6% 16.4% 18.1% Normalised NPAT 22.4 30.0 35.4 1-Year Growth Margin 9.3% 11.3% 12.0% Revenue n.a 10.2% 10.8% SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA n.a 22.7% 19.2% Normalised EPS (cps) 8.51 11.42 13.46 EBIT n.a 32.2% 22.3% Ticker JHC Dividend (cps) 0.00 11.40 13.50 NPAT n.a 34.2% 17.9% Payout ratio 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% EPS n.a 34.2% 17.9% Price $2.38 52-Week Low $2.00 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS 52-Week High $2.72 ($m) Stock return YTD (inc. div.) 19.8% Cash from Operations 41.20 116.07 73.74 FY14 FY15e FY16e Cash from Investing -14.37 -46.25 -7.48 ROA 2.8% 3.4% 3.9% Diluted Shares (m) 263.0 Cash from Financing 0.00 -30.03 -35.41 ROE 4.4% 5.8% 6.9% Market Capitalisation ($m) 628.7 Change in Cash 26.83 39.79 30.86 Net Debt (cash) -12.3 FINANCIAL STABILITY Enterprise Value ($m) 616.4 Balance Sheet ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e Sold Interest (% free float) 281.5% Total Assets 800.0 871.0 901.3 Net Debt (cash) -12.3 -52.1 -82.9 ASX 300 Weight 0.54% Total Liabilities 286.0 357.0 387.3 Net Debt/Equity -2.4% -10.1% -16.1% Average Trading Volume (3 months) 1.31m Total Equity 514.0 514.0 514.0 Net Debt/EV -2.0% -8.4% -13.5% 1-Year Beta 0.32 Interest Cover 34.2x 69.3x 20.0x Source: Wilson HTM estimates $1.80 $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 $2.80 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14
  • 15. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 15 Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) N/R BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Eureka Group Holdings Limited owns and manages senior independent living communities in Australia. EGH provides quality and affordable rental accommodation for seniors and disability pensioners. EGH owns a small portfolio of accommodation villages, and is a property asset manager of 25 villages nationally containing over 1,400 units. The company was formerly known as SCV Group Limited and changed its name to Eureka Group Holdings Limited in October 2010. INVESTMENT THESIS Eureka is well positioned to capitalise on the growing demand for seniors’ retirement accommodation. Research indicates that 15,000 new retirement dwellings are required per year over the coming decades. Eureka has recently improved its balance sheet and revenue mix and is rapidly increasing its scale. KEY CATALYSTS Further acquisitions of high returning senior rental village assets. Sale of underperforming management rights agreements. RISKS Lower occupancy rates. Declining property prices. BOARD AND MANAGEMENT Robin Levison – Non-Executive Chairman - Robin joined EGH in Dec 2013. - From 2005 to 2012, Robin was Managing Director and CEO of Industrea Limited. Robin has been credited with Industrea’s remarkable turnaround. With its share price at just 2cps when he joined in Sept 2004, he turned the business around and eventually sold it to global conglomerate General Electric. He was then appointed Director Global Acquisitions for GE Mining. - Robin is also Executive Chairman of ASX listed PPK Group Limited. - He holds a Masters of Business Administration from the University of Queensland and is a Chartered Accountant. Lachlan McIntosh – Non-Executive Director Sharon Alderwick – General Manager Ryan Maddock – CFO
  • 16. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 16 Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) N/R SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION Income Statement FY12 FY13 FY14 ($m) FY12 FY13 FY14 P/E 20.0x n.a 20.0x Revenue 14.0 9.8 9.5 Market Cap./Revenue 1.6x 2.3x 2.4x EBITDA 1.6 0.9 0.7 EV/EBITDA 18.6x 33.0x 42.5x Margin 11.4% 9.2% 7.4% EV/EBIT 19.8x n.m n.m EBIT 1.5 -0.1 -0.1 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Margin 10.7% -1.0% -1.1% Normalised NPAT 0.7 0.1 0.7 1-Year Growth Margin 5.0% 1.0% 7.4% Revenue -0.7% -30.0% -3.1% SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA n.m -43.8% -22.2% Normalised EPS (cps) 1.00 0.00 1.00 EBIT -285.8% -106.7% 0.0% Ticker EGH Dividend (cps) 0.00 0.00 0.00 NPAT -166.6% -85.7% 600.0% Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS n.m n.m n.m Price $0.20 52-Week Low $0.06 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS 52-Week High $0.23 ($m) Stock return YTD (inc. div.) 207.7% Cash from Operations 0.71 -0.40 0.70 FY12 FY13 FY14 Cash from Investing 0.20 -0.10 -4.90 ROA 6.7% 1.1% 4.5% Diluted Shares (m) 113.1 Cash from Financing 0.20 0.20 5.00 ROE 18.9% 2.5% 10.8% Market Capitalisation ($m) 22.6 Change in Cash 1.11 -0.30 0.80 Net Debt (cash) 7.1 FINANCIAL STABILITY Enterprise Value ($m) 29.7 Balance Sheet ($m) FY12 FY13 FY14 Sold Interest (% free float) n.a Total Assets 10.4 9.4 15.7 Net Debt (cash) 4.2 7.1 7.1 ASX 300 Weight 0.00% Total Liabilities 6.7 5.4 9.2 Net Debt/Equity 113.5% 177.5% 109.2% Average Trading Volume (3 months) 7,457 Total Equity 3.7 4.0 6.5 Net Debt/EV 14.1% 23.9% 23.9% 1-Year Beta 0.72 Interest Cover 2.4x 1.9x 1.3x Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company Accounts $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25
  • 17. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 17 Ingenia Communities Group (INA) N/R BUSINESS DESCRIPTION INA, which was previously known as ING Real Estate Community Living Group, was formed on January 11, 2007 and is an independent real estate investment trust. INA primarily owns, manages, and develops seniors’ housing communities. INA also specializes in student housing communities. INA is based in Sydney, but invests in the real estate markets of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. INA has 57 Australian communities. INVESTMENT THESIS Ingenia is a leading provider of affordable Australian seniors housing built around two key portfolios generating recurrent operating cashflows. This scalable platform is well positioned for further expansion through embedded capital light low risk development and further accretive acquisitions. KEY CATALYSTS Divest non core assets Operational improvements Acquisition of additional parks RISKS Decreasing real estate prices Changes to government legislation regarding rental assistance for older Australians Availability of suitable sites (i.e. ability to purchase caravan parks and change the usage to be more permanent) BOARD AND MANAGEMENT Simon Owen – CEO - Joined as CEO in November 2009. - He initiated the internalisation of management and exit from the ING Group as well as INA’s recent focus on lifestyle parks. He brings in-depth experience in the retirement sector and is the immediate past National President of the Retirement Villages Association, the peak industry advocacy group for the owners, operators, developers and managers of retirement communities in Australia. - Prior roles include CEO of Aevum (a formerly listed retirement company). Mr Owen is a qualified accountant (CPA) with postgraduate diplomas in finance and investment, and advanced accounting. Tania Betts – CFO James Hazel – Independent Non-Executive Chairman Philip Clark – Independent Director
  • 18. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 18 Ingenia Communities Group (INA) N/R SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL SUMMARY VALUATION Income Statement FY14 FY15e FY16e ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e P/E 25.7x 14.6x 10.9x Revenue 44.2 75.9 95.6 Market Cap./Revenue 8.7x 5.1x 4.0x EBITDA 14.0 24.9 33.3 EV/EBITDA 30.0x 16.9x 12.6x Margin 31.7% 32.8% 34.8% EV/EBIT 35.5x 27.1x 15.2x EBIT 11.9 15.5 27.7 Dividend Yield 2.6% 3.9% 5.1% Margin 26.8% 20.4% 29.0% Normalised NPAT 11.1 20.1 26.3 1-Year Growth Margin 25.1% 26.4% 27.5% Revenue 136.1% 71.7% 26.0% SHARE INFORMATION EBITDA 6.4% 77.7% 33.5% Normalised EPS (cps) 1.69 2.99 4.00 EBIT 38.2% 30.8% 78.7% Ticker INA Dividend (cps) 1.15 1.70 2.20 NPAT 60.9% 80.6% 30.9% Payout ratio 67.6% 56.9% 55.0% EPS 14.1% 76.5% 33.9% Price $0.44 52-Week Low $0.43 Cash Flow Statement RETURNS 52-Week High $0.53 ($m) Stock return YTD (inc. div.) -8.5% Cash from Operations 14.24 n.a n.a FY14 FY15e FY16e Cash from Investing -126.08 n.a n.a ROA 1.9% n.a n.a Diluted Shares (m) 878.9 Cash from Financing 89.01 n.a n.a ROE 4.6% n.a n.a Market Capitalisation ($m) 386.7 Change in Cash -22.83 n.a n.a Net Debt (cash) 33.7 FINANCIAL STABILITY Enterprise Value ($m) 420.4 Balance Sheet ($m) FY14 FY15e FY16e Sold Interest (% free float) 59.8% Total Assets 574.9 n.a n.a Net Debt (cash) 33.7 n.a n.a ASX 300 Weight 0.35% Total Liabilities 334.7 n.a n.a Net Debt/Equity 14.0% n.a n.a Average Trading Volume (3 months) 492,585 Total Equity 240.2 n.a n.a Net Debt/EV 8.0% n.a n.a 1-Year Beta 0.66 Interest Cover 3.2x n.a n.a Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60
  • 19. 27 October 2014 Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care, Health Services and Retirement Villages Conference 19 CONTACT DETAILS: George Gabriel, CFA , Senior Equities Analyst george.gabriel@wilsonhtm.com.au 0421 630 435 Disclaimer Whilst Wilson HTM Ltd believes the information contained in this communication is based on reliable information, no warranty is given as to its accuracy and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. To the extent permitted by law Wilson HTM Ltd disclaims all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage) however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information. Any projections contained in this communication are estimates only. Such projections are subject to market influences and contingent upon matters outside the control of Wilson HTM Ltd and therefore may not be realised in the future. The advice contained in this document is general advice. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs and because of that, any person should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the client’s objectives, financial situation and needs. Those acting upon such information without first consulting one of Wilson HTM Ltd investment advisors do so entirely at their own risk. This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase any securities and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. If the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product – the client should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement relating to the product and consider the Statement before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. This communication is not to be disclosed in whole or part or used by any other party without Wilson HTM Ltd’s prior written consent. Disclosure of Interest The Directors of Wilson HTM advise that at the date of this report they and their associates have relevant interests in the securities mentioned in this report. They also advise that Wilson HTM and Wilson HTM Corporate Finance A.B.N. 65 057 547 323 and their associates have received and may receive commissions or fees from these companies in relation to advice or dealings in the securities. Some or all of Wilson HTM authorised representatives may be remunerated wholly or partly by way of commission. In producing research reports, members of Wilson HTM Research may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Wilson HTM considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. Please see disclosures at http://www.wilsonhtm.com.au/Disclosures. Disclosures applicable to companies included in this report can be found in the latest relevant published research. BRISBANE Ph: 07 3212 1333 Fax: 07 3212 1399 SYDNEY Ph: 02 8247 6600 Fax: 02 8247 6601 MELBOURNE Ph: 03 9640 3888 Fax: 03 9640 3800 GOLD COAST Ph: 07 5509 5500 Fax: 07 5509 5599 DALBY Ph: 07 4660 8000 Fax: 07 4660 4169 HERVEY BAY Ph: 07 4197 1600 Fax: 07 4197 1699 Our website: www.wilsonhtm.com.au