A review of the key issues driving the sharemarket view of the 3 listed aged care stocks - Regis (REG), Japara (JHC) and Estia (EHE).

1. Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care Sector Review
Issued by Wilson HTM Ltd ABN 68 010 529 665 - Australian Financial Services Licence No 238375, a participant of ASX Group and should be read
in conjunction with the disclosures and disclaimer in this report. Important disclosures regarding companies that are subject of this report and an
explanation of recommendations can be found at the end of this document.
Subtitle Left Aligned and in Title Case
19 February 2015
AGED CARE SECTOR REVIEW
COMPANY NAME (ASX)
George Gabriel, CFA
George.gabriel@wilsonhtm.com.au
Tel. +61 3 9640 3864
REVIEWING THE INVESTMENT CASE
Both JHC and EHE offer positive risk/reward profiles. JHC has a better
short-term risk-reward profile coming into 1H15 results. We expect a
sharp re-rating if JHC achieves guidance. EHE has superior medium-
term acquisition upside. Our base case EHE valuation only includes
announced acquisitions and brownfield/greenfields. However, we
estimate EHE can grow to ~9,000 beds through accommodation bond
(RAD) funding and existing $150m undrawn debt, adding up to +81% to
FY15F EPS. We show that the highly fragmented aged care sector can
continue consolidating over 10-15 years. Retain Buy on JHC with $2.54
share price target. Retain Buy on EHE, $5.98 price target.
EHE investment case
We retain our Buy recommendation and $5.98 share price target given:
Expected relative valuation discount unwind. EHE’s 18x FY16F PE
is a ~30% discount to REG’s 25x and ~7% discount to JHC. As EHE
integrates Padman and Cook Care, we expect this discount to partially
unwind.
Upside risk to FY15F prospectus forecast given pre-released 1H15
results showed outperformance on costs and RAD inflows, with
occupancy and daily revenue per bed tracking to expectations.
Valuation. EHE’s FY16F PE of 18.0x is the cheapest in the sector.
Insider buying. Founder, former CEO and non-executive Director Peter
Arvanitis has purchased ~$11m of EHE on –market.
Positive risk/reward profile. We estimate EHE has 3.7x positive
risk/reward ratio in FY16F.
Significant acquisition upside. We estimate EHE can fund ~90% of its
acquisition ambitions through net RAD inflows and existing undrawn
debt in the medium term, increasing EPS by up to +81%.
Upside to our base case valuation. Arguably, our base case DCF
valuation is too conservative on revenue growth and occupancy
assumptions. If we adjust to match prospectus forecasts, our DCF
increases to ~$6.37.
Refer WHTM initiation report, Managing rapid growth, dated 3 Feb 2015.
JHC investment case
We retain our Buy recommendation and $2.54 price target given:
FY15F positive risk/reward ratio of 2.1x.
Sector-leading leverage to brownfields driven growth.
Re-rating potential as operational risk concerns are addressed and if
FY15F guidance is achieved.
Extra services upside potential given JHC is coming off a low base.
Yield appeal. Given neither REG nor EHE is paying a 1H15 dividend,
JHC offers the best FY15F yield of 4.6% (grossed up 6.6%).
Refer WHTM report, Payroll error – small valuation impact, large sentiment
impact, dated 3 Dec 2014.

2. 19 February 2015
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JHC INVESTMENT CASE
We retain our Buy recommendation and $2.54 per share target price (a 10% discount
to our blended valuation of $2.82 per share to reflect JHC’s outstanding operational
issues). Refer WHTM report, Payroll error – small valuation impact, large sentiment
impact, dated 3 Dec 2014.
We summarise below our key thoughts on the JHC investment case below.
1. Positive risk/reward ratio
JHC has a positive risk/reward ratio of 2.1x. Key points are:
The Table 1 downside case assumes:
- JHC misses its FY15F earnings guidance of $50.1m. Consensus expectation is
$48.6m (WHTM numbers are in line with guidance). This downside scenario
assumes $48m FY15F EBITDA.
- EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x, in line with EHE’s FY16F EV/EBITDA multiple.
The Table 1 downside value per share is $1.92.
Our blended valuation of $2.82 per share implies there is $0.61 per share upside
to the current share price. This implies a risk/reward ratio of 2.1x – ie. $0.61
upside/ $0.29 downside.
Our $2.54 price target is set at a
10% discount to our $2.82 blended
valuation.
JHC has a positive risk/reward
profile of 2.1x.
TABLE 1: JHC RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS
Source: WHTM analysis.
JHC risk/reward analysis
Dow nside EBITDA (A$M) 48
Dow nside EV/EBITDA multiple 10.2x
EV (A$M) 489.6
Net debt (A$M) -$15.3
Market cap (A$M) 504.9
Shares on issue 263
Implied dow nside share price $1.92
Current share price $2.21
Dow nside risk $0.29
Base case blended valuation $2.82
Upside to blended valuation $0.61
Risk/rew ard ratio 2.1x

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2. Upside earnings risk relative to consensus expectations
If JHC achieves its earnings guidance, we would expect this to be a positive stock
catalyst because the market has already discounted JHC’s guidance.
Bloomberg consensus FY15F EBITDA expectations are $48.6m, -3% below JHC’s
FY15F EBITDA guidance of A$50.1m. JHC has now re-affirmed its earnings guidance
on three separate occasions as follows:
2 Dec 14 – Payroll Review announcement.
5 Nov 14 - AGM announcement. FY15F EBITDA of $50.3, including Whelan Care
acquisition. Excluding Whelan, re-affirms prospectus FY15F EBITDA guidance of
$48.9m.
28 Aug 14 - FY14 results. Guidance of $48.9m EBITDA.
JHC’s share price (and credibility) is at risk if it materially misses FY15F guidance.
Achieving FY15F guidance would be
a positive stock catalyst for JHC.
3. Greatest leverage to brownfields driven growth
In our view, investors should rate brownfield expansion highly because it is a visible,
relatively low-risk form of earnings growth. Table 2 shows that JHC offers the sector’s
greatest leverage to brownfield developments:
JHC expects to increase total bed numbers by 13% by August 2017 from
brownfields. Including greenfields, JHC expects to increase total bed numbers by
+17% by Oct 18.
REG +7% bed number increase from brownfields by March 16, and +9% increase
by Nov 16 including greenfields.
EHE +6% bed number increase from brownfields by Jan 17.
Brownfields are effectively the
sector’s lowest risk form of earnings
growth (after occupancy increases).
TABLE 2: BROWNFIELDS AND GREENFIELDS OPERATING LEVERAGE
JHC offers the greatest leverage to
brownfield developments.
Source: Company prospectuses, WHTM
4. Re-rating potential as operational risk concerns are addressed.
We believe that as JHC addresses the market’s perception of operational risk, JHC
shares will re-rate.
Perhaps somewhat unfairly, JHC has been characterised as “accident prone” by some
investors. This characterisation can be construed as unfair given a number of adverse
news events which have impacted JHC during its life as a listed company were sector-
wide events (such as removal of payroll exemption, dementia supplement and
Challenger Care Annuity) and not stock specific.
JHC is likely to re-rate as the
perception of operational risk
diminishes.
Brownfields and greenfields operating leverage JHC EHE REG
No. FY14 operational beds (prospectus) 3,204 2,968 4,719
No. new brow nfields 405 184 335
Expected completion date - brow nfields Aug-17 Jan-17 Mar-16
% Increase in beds - brow nfields 13% 6% 7%
No. new greenfields 134 0 110
% Increase in beds - greenfields 4% 0% 2%
Expected completion date - greenfields Oct-18 - Nov-16
% increase in beds - total 17% 6% 9%

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However, it is true that some of JHC’s other errors are company specific and have
resulted in investors applying a “risk discount” to JHC’s share price. The most current
example is JHC’s payroll error – refer WHTM report, Payroll error – small valuation
impact, large sentiment impact, dated 3 Dec 2014.
5. Extra services upside
The extent of upside in extra services revenue will not be known for at least 12 months
as it is difficult to estimate what percentage of residents will take up JHC’s new extra
services offering.
Japara can now offer extra services to all beds. Previously, this offering was limited to
high care extra service beds. In October 2014, Japara rolled out its “My Choices” extra
services product, offering a $45 per day extra services package (ie. better food,
leisure activities etc.) to residents.
We will only truly know the penetration of My Choices when the existing resident base
turns over by 100% in the next 2.4 years (ie. as new residents fully replace the
departing existing residents).
Our base case currently assumes additional extra services revenue of ~$1.6m in
FY15F, at a 5% bed penetration ratio and 40% gross margin (a +$0.7m NPAT
contribution on $30.0m FY15F NPAT) increasing to 15% penetration by FY20F.
The extent of upside in extra
services revenue will not be known
for at least 12 months.
6. Valuing Japara’s acquisition upside
In WHTM note, Valuing Japara’s acquisition upside, dated 20 Oct 2014, we conclude
that JHC has from 20-46% EPS upside potential if it executes acquisitions with a
similar return profile to its Whelan Care acquisition announced in August 2014 over
the next 2.5 years. We assume that these acquisitions would be funded by net bond
(refundable accommodation deposit) inflows at a run-rate of $77.3m per annum (which
is FY15F net RAD inflow in JHC’s prospectus) over 2.5 years. Also, JHC has an
additional potential +12% EPS upside if it deploys its undrawn $95m debt facilities into
acquisitions with returns similar to the Upside Case of the Whelan acquisition.
Aged care operators all benefit from the interest free funding which Refundable
Accommodation Deposits (RADs) provide. There is a one-off positive structural
catalyst of increased RADs to flow in over the next ~2.5 years as operators can
receive RADs on high care beds for the first time.
As long as investors conclude that RADs form a permanent part of a individual firm’s
capital structure, then we believe the most appropriate way to value RADs is:
Add net RAD inflows into the working capital line in the base case discounted
cash flow valuation; and
Separately quantify the acquisition option value of the “free funding” provided by
RADs. To be clear, we do not include the acquisition option value in our base case
DCF valuation – we simply include it the analysis as an additional investment
consideration.
We believe that the listed aged care operators can continue to drive their net RAD
inflows without creating systemic risks because each of JHC REG and EHE has
FY15F RAD/house price ratios of <51%. We believe systemic risks would be high
if/when RAD/house price ratios exceed 70%. In this scenario, a 30% residential
property price decline potentially drives a RAD redemption shortfall (ie. where
incoming RADs are unable to refinance maturing RADs).
JHC has from 20-46% EPS upside
over the next ~2.5% through RAD-
funded acquisitions.
Debt-funded acquisitions could add
another +12% EPS upside.
We believe the listed aged care
stocks are currently well placed to
continue net RAD inflows without
creating systemic risks.
7. Yield appeal
Listed aged care stocks are all well placed to benefit from investors’ “search for yield”
given global interest rates are likely to remain “lower for longer”, driving Australian
interest rates lower.
One possible macroeconomic scenario is:
Falling oil prices drive deflation fears in Europe and the USA.
Aged care stocks will benefit from
investors’ search for yield. They all
offer fully franked dividends. JHC
offers the best FY15F dividend. EHE
offers the best FY16F dividend.

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Europe responds with rate cuts and quantitative easing.
USA is forced to keep its interest rates “lower for longer”, deferring rate rises.
The Australian Reserve Bank is forced to cut rates to prevent the A$ re-rating as
global currencies decline (“the global currency wars”).
In this scenario, some economists have forecast Australian cash rate cuts to
1.25%.
Arguably, this process has already commenced, with the RBA’s 25 basis point cut in
the cash rate to 2.25% on 4 Feb 2015.

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EHE INVESTMENT CASE
We initiated on EHE with a $5.98 blended valuation and Buy recommendation. Refer
WHTM report, Managing rapid growth, dated 3 Feb 2015.
EHE offers the sector’s greatest growth optionality – with the highest upside in
refundable accommodation deposits (RADs) combined with aggressive acquisition
ambitions (targeting a 10,000 bed portfolio in the medium term vs 3,613 currently;
compared to JHC’s ~3,400 beds with a medium term ambition of 5,000 beds and REG
with no disclosed bed target).
1. Relative valuation discount unwind.
We expect EHE’s ~30% relative valuation discount to REG to unwind given:
The long operating of all 3 underlying businesses (Estia was founded in 2005;
Padman 1984; Cook Care 1987).
Management/Board have experience managing rapid growth – at Bupa Aged Care
Services Australia (CEO and CFO) and in private hospitals (Chairman).
The integration is tracking well, as evidenced by EHE’s strong pre-released 1H15
results.
EHE arguably offers the sector’s
greatest growth optionality.
2. Upside risk to FY15F numbers
We believe that there is upside risk to FY15F numbers given:
Strong 1H15 unaudited results – the company release stated “Estia on track to
meet Prospectus FY15 Forecast Pro Forma EBIT and Revenue”
Unaudited 1H15 EBIT was $28.5m, ahead of $28.2m in prospectus
The underlying earnings drivers are either on track or outperforming.
- Occupancy is on track. (Refer p4 initiation report).
- Costs outperforming. EHE actually reduced staff costs relative to prospectus,
which is a positive surprise. (Refer page 5 of initiation report)
- RADs outperforming – average new RAD price has been increased to $320k,
from $310k at time of prospectus. (Refer p5 initiation report).
- Daily revenue per bed is on track. ACFI revenue per day is on track. EHE
reported $170.56 per day in the month of Dec 2014. Our unlisted company
contacts confirm that they have generated over $170 per day. The key driver of
daily revenue per bed is resident acuity. EHE stated that the driver of its
revenue uplift is “the proportion of high case residents has grown to 91.3%
across the portfolio.
There is upside risk to FY15F
numbers.
3. Insider buying
Peter Arvanitis, founder and NED, has a substantial proportion of his personal net
worth remaining in EHE. He purchased another $11m of stock on market post-IPO.
As founder and CEO of the original Estia business, over the six years from June 2008
to June 2014, he integrated 17 acquisitions, adding 1,313 new places through
acquisitions and 678 places through brownfield and greenfield developments.
He remains actively engaged in the EHE M&A program. We met with him recently and
remain impressed with his ongoing drive and enthusiasm for EHE’s success.
4. Positive risk/reward ratio
We believe an FY15F risk/reward ratio for EHE is not meaningful because there is
little FY15F earnings risk following its 1H15 earnings pre-release.
Accordingly, we present EHE’s FY16F risk/reward ratio of 3.7x in Table 3. Key
assumptions are:
EHE has a positive FY16F
risk/reward ratio of 3.7x.

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Downside FY16F EBITDA assumption of $77.0m is the lowest analyst forecast at
the time of writing (vs WHTM $84.5m and consensus of $80.8m). (Note that we
are much more conservative in later years, with our FY17F EBITDA of $86.2m, vs
consensus $87.1m and WHTM FY18F EBITDA $90.9m vs consensus $100.5m,
driven by our conservative revenue growth forecasts).
Downside FY16F EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x, which is EHE’s consensus FY16F
EV/EBITDA, a ~13% discount to sector average of 11.7x.
TABLE 3: EHE RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS
Source: Company prospectuses, WHTM
5. Significant acquisition upside
We believe EHE has up to +81% EPS upside over the medium term through
acquisition-driven growth of its bed portfolio from 3,613 to 9,000 beds funded by a
combination of net RAD inflows and EHE’s existing $150m undrawn debt.
Below, we explain these 3 key points:
EHE has up to ~81% EPS upside from acquisitions as comprising:
- +29-66% EPS upside over 3 years funded by net RAD inflows; and
- +15% EPS upside from EHE’s $150m undrawn debt facility.
Aged care sector consolidation can continue for 10-15 years. Table 5.
EHE has the sector’s greatest potential to increase its total RAD balance over 3
years relative to its existing RAD balance.
We estimate that EHE has at least
29-66% EPS upside from
acquisitions over the next 3 years,
funded by RADs. EHE could also
use its undrawn $150m debt facility
to fund acquisitions.
We believe aged care sector
consolidation will continue for
another 10-15 years.
EHErisk/reward analysis EHEFY16F
Dow nside EBITDA $77.0
Dow nside EV/EBITDA multiple 10.2x
Enterprise value (A$M) $785.4
FY14 net debt (A$M) -$84.5
Market capitalisation (A$M) $869.9
Shares on issue (M) 180.9
Implied dow nside share price $4.81
Current share price ($) $5.06
Dow nside risk ($) -$0.25
WHTM base case blended valuation $5.98
Upside to blended valuation $0.92
Risk/rew ard ratio 3.7x

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Valuing EHE’s acquisition upside
Our estimate of 29-66% EPS upside assumes the following:
EHE funds acquisitions from net accommodation bond (RAD) inflows over the
next 3 years.
Acquisitions have a similar return profile to the Whelan Care acquisition
announced by JHC in August 2014. We use Whelan Care as a return benchmark
because it is the only acquisition made by a listed aged care company where the
expected return scenarios have been fully disclosed. Chart 1. Table 4.
TABLE 4: EARNINGS IMPACT OF RAD-FUNDED ACQUISITIONS
Source: WHTM analysis
Earnings impact of RAD-funded acquisitions (A$M) Low case Upside case
Forecast total net RAD inflow s FY15F - FY17F (A$M) $365.0 $365.0
Whelan net purchase price (A$M) $39.5
Whelan net purchase price (incl. bond uplift) $24.5
No. potential Whelan-like acquisitions w ith forecast net RAD
inflow s FY15F - FY17F 9.2 14.9
Low case Upside case
EBITDA addition from Whelan-like acquisitions (A$M) $26.3 $59.6
NPAT/EBITDA ratio (%) 61% 61%
NPAT addition from Whelan-like acquisitions (A$M) $16.0 $36.2
No. EHEshares on issue 180.9 180.9
Annual EPS impact from FY17F (cps) 8.8 20.0
WHTM FY15F EPS forecast (cps) 23.4 23.4
Nominal EPS upside 38% 85%
NPV of annual EPS impact 6.8 15.4
Discount rate 11% 11%
FY15F - FY17F EPS upside from RAD-funded Whelan like
acquisitions 29% 66%

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CHART 1: WHELAN CARE RETURN PROFILE
Source: JHC investor presentation.

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How long will aged care sector consolidation continue?
We conclude that aged care sector consolidation will continue for 10-15 years.
We believe that the acquisition target market consists of ~950 private operators who
operate 6 or fewer facilities. Table 4. If we assume that the top 10 aged care operators
acquire 5 of these facilities each year, for a total of 50 acquisitions per annum, then
this implies that acquisitions will continue for ~19 years. If we assume that only half of
the potential target market decides to sell, then this implies that sector consolidation
will continue for ~9.5 years. Table 4.
We expect aged care consolidation
will continue for ~10-15 years.
TABLE 5: POTENTIAL ACQUISITION TARGETS
Source: JHC prospectus, WHTM
EHE has the greatest potential to increase its total RAD balance
Our preliminary analysis concludes that EHE has the sector’s greatest potential to
increase its total RAD balance over 3 years relative to its existing RAD balance (EHE
can increase its RAD balance by +121%, JHC by +88% and REG +57%).
Given this leverage, combined with EHE’s aggressive acquisition history and track
record, we conclude that EHE has the greatest leverage to RAD-funded acquisition
upside.
EHE has the sector’s greatest
leverage to earnings upside driven
by RAD funded acquisitions.
6. Upside to our base case DCF valuation
Arguably, our base case DCF valuation is too conservative.
Growth options not currently included in our base case valuation include:
Unannounced greenfield, brownfield and acquisitions, which we estimate
could add from +44 – 81% EPS upside over the medium-term as EHE moves to
~9,000 beds (vs 3,613 currently) over the medium term.
Occupancy. Arguably, we have been too conservative with our base case
occupancy forecasts. Occupancy as at Dec 2014 was 94.1%. There is $0.10
upside to our discounted cash flow valuation if we increase our base case
occupancy assumption from 95.0% to 96.3% (in line with prospectus forecasts).
Revenue growth. If we assume +2% revenue growth (from price indexation) per
annum from FY18F in perpetuity, our DCF valuation increases from $6.04 to $6.27
(+3.8%). Our base case only assumes +2% revenue growth in FY15F, FY16F and
FY17F. Arguably, we have been too conservative in our efforts to capture possible
funding risks as the Federal Government looks for budget savings.
Our base case discounted cash flow
(DCF) valuation of EHE is
conservative.
We have not included the potential
+44-81% EPS upside from
acquisitions which can be funded
without an equity capital raising.
There is +$0.10 discounted cash
flow valuation upside to our base
case from improved occupancy.
If we assume an annual +2% price
increase from FY18F (base case
assumes zero), then our DCF
valuation increases to $6.27 (+4%).
Potential acquisition targets
No. aged care homes 2,716
No. private operators (%) 38%
No. private operators (no.) 1,032
No. single facility private operators (%) 63%
No. single facility operators (no.) 650
No. 2-6 facilities private operators (%) 29%
No. 2-6 facilities private operators (no.) 299
Total no. potential acquisition targets 950

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EHE’s prospectus provided the following commentary on pricing trends: “the
Australian Government provides a subsidy to aged care operators on a per
resident basis based on the resident’s required level of care, assessed under
ACFI. The level of Australian Government daily payments received per resident is
determined by the levels set under ACFI, the level of resident acuity and Estia’s
capacity to assess and document resident assessments in a timely and accurate
manner. For a resident with a given degree of acuity, the amount of Australian
Government funding per day has typically increased annually in line with the
Commonwealth Own Purpose Outlays index. The Australian Government froze
ACFI in FY2013; however, ACFI indexation recommenced in FY2014 at 1.7%. For
FY2015F, the Australian Government announced total ACFI indexation of 4.3%
effective from 1 July 2014, which includes a one-off increase of 2.4%. Estia has
achieved ACFI per occupied place day growth in excess of indexed growth over
the historic period as a result of increased acuity through ageing in place and
ongoing improvements in documentation and management of resident care
needs.”
Extra services revenues. We have not factored in any additional revenue from
providing additional services to residents because EHE is not currently focusing
on this segment. It appears EHE is more focused on acquisition activity than an
extra services offering. This contrast with JHC, who rolled out its My Choices
offering in Oct 2014. At this stage, it is too early to quantify potential upside as it is
not clear what % of residents will take-up the additional services offerings.

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TABLE 6: AGED CARE SECTOR STOCK OVERVIEW
JHC has the highest share price
upside to consensus valuation.
JHC is the cheapest on FY15F PE.
EHE is the cheapest on FY16F PE.
EHE is the cheapest on FY15F and
FY16F EV/EBITDA.
EHE offers the highest FY16F yield.
All dividends are expected to be fully
franked.
EHE is the most attractive on a PEG
ratio basis.
Highest FY15F earnings risk is JHC;
(consensus relative to prospectus).
June yr end FY15F JHC REG EHE Average
Key stock metrics
1H15 results release 27-Feb-15 19-Feb-15 19-Feb-15
Listing date 17-Apr-14 7-Oct-14 5-Dec-14
IPO issue price $2.00 $3.65 $5.75
Share price date 18-Feb-15 18-Feb-15 18-Feb-15
Share price (A$) $2.27 $4.46 $5.15
% above/(below ) IPO issue price 13.5% 22.2% -10.4%
Capitalisation
Shares on issue (M) 263.0 300.3 180.9
Market cap (A$M) $597 $1,340 $932
FY14 cash (A$M) $28.1 $40.3 $84.5
FY14 interest-bearing debt (A$M) $15.8 $0.2 $0.0
FY14 net cash/(net debt) (A$M) $12.3 $40.1 $84.5
Enterprise value (A$M) $584.8 $1,299.4 $847.1
Valuation
Consensus valuation $2.50 $4.46 $5.62
Upside to consensus valuation 10.1% 0.0% 9.1% 6.4%
Price-earnings multiples
FY15F PE rel sector avg (x) 0.9x 1.2x 0.9x
FY15F PE (x) 21.6x 30.3x 22.0x 24.6x
FY16F PE (x) 20.0x 25.4x 18.3x 21.2x
FY17F PE (x) 17.3x 22.7x 16.8x 18.9x
EV/EBITDA multiples
FY15F EV/EBITDA rel. sector avg (x) 0.9x 1.2x 0.9x
FY15F EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6x 15.0x 12.1x 12.9x
FY16F EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2x 13.8x 10.4x 11.8x
FY17F EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0x 12.6x 9.7x 10.8x
Dividends
FY15F dividend yield 4.6% 1.6% 2.3% 2.9%
Grossed-up FY15F yield 6.6% 2.4% 3.2% 4.1%
FY16F dividend yield 5.0% 3.9% 5.5% 4.8%
Grossed-up FY16F yield 7.2% 5.6% 7.8% 6.9%
Franking ratio 100% 100% 100%
Expected 1H dividend payment date Apr-15 No 1H15 interim No 1H15 interim
Expected 2H dividend payment date Oct-15 Oct-15 Oct-15
Earnings growth forecasts
FY14-15F NPAT 23.5% 40.8% 31.0% 31.8%
FY15-16F NPAT 8.0% 19.5% 20.1% 15.8%
FY16-17F NPAT 15.6% 11.8% 8.9% 12.1%
Price Earnings-Growth ratios
PEG - FY15F PE vs 1yr EPS grow th 0.9x 0.7x 0.7x 0.8x
PEG - FY15F PE vs avg 2yr EPS grow th 1.4x 1.0x 0.9x 1.1x
PEG - FY15F PE vs avg 3yr EPS grow th 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 1.2x
Consensus rel. prospectus (%)
FY15F consensus EPS (cps) 10.5 14.7 23.4
FY15F consensus NPAT (A$M) 27.7 44.2 42.3
FY15F consensus EBITDA (A$M) 48.7 86.8 69.4
FY15F consensus NPAT rel. prospectus -7.8% 2.2% -0.7% -2.1%
FY15F cons. EBITDA rel. prospectus -3.3% -0.1% -1.1% -1.5%
Source: Bloomberg consensus, WHTM analysis

13. 19 February 2015
Aged Care Sector Review
Wilson HTM Equities Research – Aged Care Sector Review 13
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