This document provides an analysis of Rice Midstream Partners LP (RMP) conducted by Nathan Judge, CFA of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. It recommends buying RMP based on its attractive 5.1% yield that is expected to grow over 25% annually through 2017, making it the top performer in the covered universe. Key points include RMP's low-risk growth profile requiring little capital, improving returns on capital, and undervalued unit price given its yield and growth relative to peers. The initiation report provides an overview of RMP's business, financial forecasts, valuation, and risks.
1. Nathan Judge, CFA 215-665-4475 njudge@janney.com
Master Limited Partnership
Price: $14.64
Fair Value Estimate: $23.00
52-Week Range: $12.91 - $18.02
Market Cap (MM): $422
Shr.O/S-Diluted (mm): 28.8
Average Daily Volume: 217,821
Dividend: $0.75
Yield: 5.1%
Cash/Share: NA
FCF Yield: NA
Debt/Cap: NA
FYE: Dec 2015E 2016E 2017E
Quarterly FCF:
Q1 0.19E 0.24E --
Q2 0.16E 0.30E --
Q3 0.21E 0.32E --
Q4 0.22E 0.33E --
Year: 0.79E 1.18E 1.39E
FCF: DCF/Unit
Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA ($M):
Q1 13.2E 20.0E --
Q2 11.8E 27.0E --
Q3 14.8E 29.8E --
Q4 15.6E 33.9E --
Year: 55.3E 109.9E 168.9E
April 6, 2015
Rice Midstream Partners LP (RMP) - BUY
Initiation: 5.1% yield growing 25% per year = top
pick
PORTFOLIO MANAGER BRIEF
RMP offers a very attractive 5.1% yield that we believe will grow 25%+ per annum
for at least the next three years and is picked to be the best performer in our universe
for the next six months. The company has one of the lowest risk growth stories in the
sector, as RMP’s growth requires very little capital. With a yield notably above its peers
with similar growth rates, we believe the units are compelling and recommend Buying.
Our base case fair value estimate is $23 (62% TSR upside).
ANALYST NOTES
q Robust 25%+ annual growth, yet the growth is low risk. Growth should come
as RMP's built out pipe infrastructure is filled as its sponsor drills wells in the
Marcellus and Utica.
q RMP's ROCE less WACC spread should improve meaningfully. As most of
the incremental growth requires very little investment, the marginal ROCE is
significantly above the company's current average. Importantly, a widening ROCE
less WACC spread has shown to be a good predictor of stock outperformance.
q Valuation is very attractive. Most companies growing distributions at a 25%+
pace have yields at or below 4.0%. RMP's yield is 5.1%, which does not make
sense to us and indicates the shares are inexpensive.
We recommend that retail clients consult with a tax accountant prior to investing in
any MLP. Unit holders will receive a K-1, which allocates each limited partner's pro-
rata share of pass-through income and expenses. This can both delay and complicate
tax filings. In addition, MLPs are not usually suitable for most tax exempt investment
vehicles, like IRAs.
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2. Key Issue Our Position Timing Impact
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3. Figure 1: 2015e Natural gas gathering volumes by customer
Source: Company reports
Figure 2: 2014 Revenue by customer
Source: Company Reports
84%
16%
Rice Energy ThirdParty
85%
15%
Rice Energy ThirdParty
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4. Figure 3: 2015e Gathering and compression volumes
Source: Company reports
Figure 4: 2015e fees per dekatherm of natural gas serviced
Source: Company Reports
Gathering volumes (MDth/d)
Rice Energy 519
Third parties 93
Total Gathering Volumes 612
Compression volumes (MDth/d)
Rice Energy 0
Third parties 93
Total Compression Volumes 93
Gathering Fee ($/Dth)
Rice Energy 0.29
Third parties 0.43
Compression Fee ($/Dth)
Rice Energy N/A
Third parties 0.07
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7. Total Quarterly Distribution per
Unit Target Amount Unitholders
Incentive
Distribution
Rights Holders
Minimum Quarterly Distribtuion $0.1875 100% 0%
First Target Distribution above $0.1875 up to $0.2156 100% 0%
Second Target Distribution above $0.2156 up to $0.2344 85% 15%
Third Target Distribution above $0.2344 up to $0.2813 75% 25%
Thereafter above $0.2813 50% 50%
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8. Holder Name % of Outstanding Holder Total Shares
1 Morgan Stanley 16.8% 4,834,000
2 Harvest Fund Advisors 13.2% 3,807,000
3 Goldman Sachs Asset Management 10.8% 3,098,000
4 Oppenheimer Funds 8.3% 2,380,000
5 AT Investment Advisers 7.2% 2,079,000
6 Jennison Associates 3.9% 1,108,000
7 SG Americas Securities 3.1% 900,000
8 Credit Suisse Securities 3.0% 865,000
9 Mason Street Advisors 2.6% 750,000
10 Waddell & Reed 2.4% 704,000
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9. Timing Catalyst Comments
1H16 Dropdown of Ohio gathering assets Meaningful upside if occurs faster than expected`
2Q15 Distribution growth announced Execution supports +20% organic annual distribution growth
YE2015 PLR received from IRS on water assets Increases likelihood of +20% distribution growth
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Dec14
Feb15
Mar15
RMP Relative to S&P 500 Relative to MLP Index RMP/AM
underperformance to
AM perplexing?
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12. Ohio Gathering EBITDA(2017e) $110.0
Market Multiple avg 9.5 x
TEV $1,045
Funding 50% debt $523
50% equity $523
Ohio Gathering EBITDA 110.0
Interest expense 4.0% -20.9
Maintenance capital -7.8
DCF pre IDR 81.3
Increase in units
Equity to raise 522.5$
Unit price / 20.00$
Additional units 26.1
2015e DCF for RMP 48.3$
+Ohio Gathering DCF 81.3
Combined DCF 129.6$
Previous units 61.2
Additional units issued 26.1
Total units 87.3
DCF/Unit 1.48
Previous DCF/unit 0.79
Accretion/(Dilution) 88%
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13. $11
$23
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
12 Month Fair Value Targets: Base, Bear, Bull12 Month Fair Value Targets: Base, Bear, Bull12 Month Fair Value Targets: Base, Bear, Bull12 Month Fair Value Targets: Base, Bear, Bull $33
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14. R² = 0.7509
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
CurentYield
3 year CAGR Distribution Growth
RMP
0.0 x
2.0 x
4.0 x
6.0 x
8.0 x
10.0 x
12.0 x
14.0 x
16.0 x
18.0 x
Jan-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Mar-15
Mar-15
Mar-15
EV/1 yr fwd EBITDA EV/2 yr fwd EBITDA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
01/2015
02/2015
03/2015
1 yr fwd div spread to 10 year Baa corp yld
2 yr fwd div spread to 10yr Baa corp yld
0 x
2 x
4 x
6 x
8 x
10 x
12 x
14 x
14-Jan-15
14-Feb-15
P/DCF 1yr fwd P/DCF 2yr fwd
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15. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Dividend 0.69 0.86 1.07 1.35 1.38 1.46 1.55 1.64
Risk free rate 5.0%
Equity Risk premium 2.5%
Beta 0.85
Company-Specific Risk 2.0%
Cost of Equity 9.13%
CAPM weighting 50%
Yield Cost of Equity 4.9%
Yield COE weighting 50%
Cost of Equity 7.0%
Medium term growth rate 6.0%
Terminal growth rate 1.0%
Terminal multiple 16.8
Terminal discount factor 0.62
Discounted DPS -> 2022 7.68
Terminal value of DPS ($/share) 17.18
Value per share ($) 24.86$
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21. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Research Analyst Certification
I, Nathan Judge, the Primarily Responsible Analyst for this research report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of my compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views I expressed in this research report.
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC ("Janney") Equity Research Disclosure Legend
Rice Midstream Partners LP currently is, or during the past 12 months was, a Janney Montgomery Scott LLC client. Janney Montgomery Scott
LLC, provided investment banking related services.
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Rice Midstream Partners LP in the past 12 months.
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC received compensation for investment banking services from Rice Midstream Partners LP in the past 12
months.
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services from Rice Midstream
Partners LP in the next three months.
The research analyst is compensated based on, in part, Janney Montgomery Scott's profitability, which includes its investment banking revenues.
Definition of Ratings
BUY: Janney expects that the subject company will appreciate in value. Additionally, we expect that the subject company will outperform
comparable companies within its sector.
NEUTRAL: Janney believes that the subject company is fairly valued and will perform in line with comparable companies within its sector.
Investors may add to current positions on short-term weakness and sell on strength as the valuations or fundamentals become more or less
attractive.
SELL: Janney expects that the subject company will likely decline in value and will underperform comparable companies within its sector.
Price Charts
Janney Montgomery Scott Ratings Distribution as of 12/31/14
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [B] 140 50.36 21 15.00
NEUTRAL [N] 137 49.28 14 10.22
SELL [S] 1 0.36 0 0.00
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22. *Percentages of each rating category where Janney has performed Investment Banking services over the past 12 months.
Other Disclosures
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, is a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the
New York Stock Exchange, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the Securities Investor Protection Corp.
This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or instruments named or
described in this report. Interested parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal or the entity that provided this report to
them, should they desire further information. The information in this report has been obtained or derived from sources believed by Janney
Montgomery Scott LLC, to be reliable. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, however, does not represent that this information is accurate or
complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC at this time and are
subject to change without notice.
Investment opinions are based on each stock's 6-12 month return potential. Our ratings are not based on formal price targets, however,
our analysts will discuss fair value and/or target price ranges in research reports. Decisions to buy or sell a stock should be based on the
investor's investment objectives and risk tolerance and should not rely solely on the rating. Investors should read carefully the entire
research report, which provides a more complete discussion of the analyst's views. Supporting information related to the recommendation,
if any, made in the research report is available upon request.
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