This document summarizes the first week of the Founder Labs Mobile Edition program from January 8, 2011. It provides an overview of the mobile ecosystem and business models, including some history on mobile devices and companies like General Magic. It also discusses the evolution of the mobile device stack from hardware-focused to more software-driven. Finally, it notes how value in mobile is shifting up the stack to services and content, and fueling growth in mobile app stores.
A Mobile Centric View of Silicon Valley - January 2011Lars Kamp
A presentation held at Opinno in San Francisco to a delegration from PromoMadrid. Goal was to provide a quick overview of major trends in mobile in 30 min.
Application Development Guidelines: Developing fit-for-purpose applicationsDaniel Appelquist
Presentation on issues with network optimization of mobile apps given at Over the Air 2011, presented by Dr. Kamran Kordi, Deutsche Telekom AG, Group Technology.
Emerginov, an open PHP PaaS for co-innovation, OW2con'12, ParisOW2
This platform is based on the smart integration of free software components and promote the massive usage of open technologies (LAMP, Asterisk, OpenSIPS) and open API. It has been deployed in Africa and used to stimulate open innovation in emerging countries. It allows rapid prototyping of “telco-web” micro-services on over the top of traditional operator networks using open APIs (SMS, vocal access). It aims to build a reference library of business applications under free licenses. The project has recently joined OW2 and aims to publish 2 versions of the solution: a standalone version and a Telco grade version.
Every once in a while a new technology changes the game. Some benefit from it while others fail to adapt. Long Term Evolution, or LTE for short, is on the surface ,just yet another fast wireless standard bringing us faster mobile networking. But just like the freeway was much more than just a faster road, LTE actually has a chance to change the rules for app developers and create new possibilities.
A Mobile Centric View of Silicon Valley - January 2011Lars Kamp
A presentation held at Opinno in San Francisco to a delegration from PromoMadrid. Goal was to provide a quick overview of major trends in mobile in 30 min.
Application Development Guidelines: Developing fit-for-purpose applicationsDaniel Appelquist
Presentation on issues with network optimization of mobile apps given at Over the Air 2011, presented by Dr. Kamran Kordi, Deutsche Telekom AG, Group Technology.
Emerginov, an open PHP PaaS for co-innovation, OW2con'12, ParisOW2
This platform is based on the smart integration of free software components and promote the massive usage of open technologies (LAMP, Asterisk, OpenSIPS) and open API. It has been deployed in Africa and used to stimulate open innovation in emerging countries. It allows rapid prototyping of “telco-web” micro-services on over the top of traditional operator networks using open APIs (SMS, vocal access). It aims to build a reference library of business applications under free licenses. The project has recently joined OW2 and aims to publish 2 versions of the solution: a standalone version and a Telco grade version.
Every once in a while a new technology changes the game. Some benefit from it while others fail to adapt. Long Term Evolution, or LTE for short, is on the surface ,just yet another fast wireless standard bringing us faster mobile networking. But just like the freeway was much more than just a faster road, LTE actually has a chance to change the rules for app developers and create new possibilities.
Adobe MAX 2009: Design Considerations for Contextually Aware SolutionsAli Ivmark
2009: Simple, straightforward principles to consider when pushing the user experience beyond the ordinary context.
Am posting only as it makes a good frame of reference/artifact given it's only about 4 years old!
Orbitz mobile & travel industry - for distributionMobileAnthem
Mobile has exploded on to the scene this year. Not surprising since there are 284 million phones for 310 million people in the U.S. Add to that 17 million tablets were sold in 2010. But what do people really want from these portable devices? How do we create an experience that delights them enough to gain brand loyalty in the competitive travel industry? Hugh Jedwill, CEO of Mobile Anthem, uses his background in brand marketing to describe mobile behaviors and discuss how to use them to create a compelling product that will create loyalty and drive business.
Facebook of Things - The importance of End Users within M2M SystemsPeter Decker
Machine-2-machine (M2M) comes with the promise of e.g. 3-5 devices per person and brings back growth opportunities in times of wireless saturation in many countries in Europe, Asia and US.
But the classical M2M systems mainly focus on remote monitoring and control of systems and devices, the access to the M2M system is limited to trained professionals only.
How will M2M change, and how does M2M need to change, when end users become an integral part of the M2M scenarios, as in vehicle telematics, wireless healthcare or retail and automation. The end user interfaces to the system, he might own parts of the M2M system or he has strong dependencies to its successful functioning.
Understand the challenges of programming application for each mobile platform and Xoriant’s recommendations of porting your mobile apps for overcoming this challenge. Also learn more on why mobile testing is an integral part of a mobile app development project which incorporates testing applications across devices, networks and carriers.
A brief summary of location based technologies and techniques, including indoor proximity methods. This talk was given at the Victoria & Albert museum (London) to the Museum Computer Group.
MeasureWorks eFinancials - Best practices for a successfull mobile experienc...MeasureWorks
Gebruikers van mobiel internet verwachten snelle transacties en betrouwbare sites en/of applicaties. Volgens recent onderzoek haakt meer dan 52% van de klanten af bij een slechte ervaring en overweegt daardoor geen gebruik meer te maken van een mobiele applicatie.
Nu mobiel internet een integraal onderdeel wordt van uw dienstverlening, en de verwachtingen van klanten toenemen, wordt het managen en monitoren van uw mobiele sites en applicaties een voorwaarde voor succes. Het niet tijdig identificeren van langzame, of erger, niet functionerende mobiele diensten zal onherroepelijk resulteren in verlies van klanten, omzet en uiteindelijk reputatie schade.
Aan de hand van praktijkvoorbeelden zullen we u laten zien:
* Wat de impact is van de adoptie van mobiel internet en groeiende klantverwachtingen op uw online dienstverlening
* Op welke wijze Mobiele Web Experience problemen kunnen worden herkend voordat klanten uw website verlaten
* Best practices voor het leveren van een kwalitatief uitstekende Mobile Web Experience
"2012 KPCB Internet Trends Year-End Update"Jim Porter
Other tidbits:
Meeker’s data show 2.4 billion Internet users worldwide, a number that’s still growing eight percent yearly.
There are 1.1 billion smartphone subscribers worldwide — but that’s still just 17 percent of the global cellphone market.
29 percent of adults in the U.S. now own either a tablet or an e-reader.
Mobile devices now account for 13 percent of worldwide Internet traffic, up from 4 percent in 2010.
Mobile app and advertising revenue has grown at an annual rate of 129 percent since 2008, and now tops $19 billion.
Mobile traffic app Waze has been adding users faster than all GPS makers combined have sold personal navigation units, and it’s been that way since the beginning of 2012.
Adobe MAX 2009: Design Considerations for Contextually Aware SolutionsAli Ivmark
2009: Simple, straightforward principles to consider when pushing the user experience beyond the ordinary context.
Am posting only as it makes a good frame of reference/artifact given it's only about 4 years old!
Orbitz mobile & travel industry - for distributionMobileAnthem
Mobile has exploded on to the scene this year. Not surprising since there are 284 million phones for 310 million people in the U.S. Add to that 17 million tablets were sold in 2010. But what do people really want from these portable devices? How do we create an experience that delights them enough to gain brand loyalty in the competitive travel industry? Hugh Jedwill, CEO of Mobile Anthem, uses his background in brand marketing to describe mobile behaviors and discuss how to use them to create a compelling product that will create loyalty and drive business.
Facebook of Things - The importance of End Users within M2M SystemsPeter Decker
Machine-2-machine (M2M) comes with the promise of e.g. 3-5 devices per person and brings back growth opportunities in times of wireless saturation in many countries in Europe, Asia and US.
But the classical M2M systems mainly focus on remote monitoring and control of systems and devices, the access to the M2M system is limited to trained professionals only.
How will M2M change, and how does M2M need to change, when end users become an integral part of the M2M scenarios, as in vehicle telematics, wireless healthcare or retail and automation. The end user interfaces to the system, he might own parts of the M2M system or he has strong dependencies to its successful functioning.
Understand the challenges of programming application for each mobile platform and Xoriant’s recommendations of porting your mobile apps for overcoming this challenge. Also learn more on why mobile testing is an integral part of a mobile app development project which incorporates testing applications across devices, networks and carriers.
A brief summary of location based technologies and techniques, including indoor proximity methods. This talk was given at the Victoria & Albert museum (London) to the Museum Computer Group.
MeasureWorks eFinancials - Best practices for a successfull mobile experienc...MeasureWorks
Gebruikers van mobiel internet verwachten snelle transacties en betrouwbare sites en/of applicaties. Volgens recent onderzoek haakt meer dan 52% van de klanten af bij een slechte ervaring en overweegt daardoor geen gebruik meer te maken van een mobiele applicatie.
Nu mobiel internet een integraal onderdeel wordt van uw dienstverlening, en de verwachtingen van klanten toenemen, wordt het managen en monitoren van uw mobiele sites en applicaties een voorwaarde voor succes. Het niet tijdig identificeren van langzame, of erger, niet functionerende mobiele diensten zal onherroepelijk resulteren in verlies van klanten, omzet en uiteindelijk reputatie schade.
Aan de hand van praktijkvoorbeelden zullen we u laten zien:
* Wat de impact is van de adoptie van mobiel internet en groeiende klantverwachtingen op uw online dienstverlening
* Op welke wijze Mobiele Web Experience problemen kunnen worden herkend voordat klanten uw website verlaten
* Best practices voor het leveren van een kwalitatief uitstekende Mobile Web Experience
"2012 KPCB Internet Trends Year-End Update"Jim Porter
Other tidbits:
Meeker’s data show 2.4 billion Internet users worldwide, a number that’s still growing eight percent yearly.
There are 1.1 billion smartphone subscribers worldwide — but that’s still just 17 percent of the global cellphone market.
29 percent of adults in the U.S. now own either a tablet or an e-reader.
Mobile devices now account for 13 percent of worldwide Internet traffic, up from 4 percent in 2010.
Mobile app and advertising revenue has grown at an annual rate of 129 percent since 2008, and now tops $19 billion.
Mobile traffic app Waze has been adding users faster than all GPS makers combined have sold personal navigation units, and it’s been that way since the beginning of 2012.
[MobileMonday Switzerland #3 : Mobile application platforms]
Claude Florin gave an introduction on the key industry trends in mobile environments and question to be addressed by the speakers. He invited Swiss start-ups to Mobile Mondays peer awards. At HP, he is marketing manager for Communication solutions, responsible for user experience and emerging applications worldwide.
http://cflorin.blogspot.com/
Sundeep Gupta (Director, Orative Corp) takes us through his perspectives on Enterprise mobility and the mobile value-chain on his series on "Hot areas to startup"
Proliferation of Mobile Devices = Opportunity for Apps & DevelopersVDC Research Group
These slides are from a webcast originally recorded on 8/4/10. During this webcast, Eric Klein, Senior Analyst, Mobile & Wireless Practice at VDC Research, presents data from VDC’s annual Mobile Developer survey, as well as the findings from vendor and end-user interviews. Specifically, he provides insights into: The size of the mobile applications market, and how quickly it is expected to grow; The primary challenges enterprises face when adopting mobile applications; How traditional enterprise software vendors are transitioning their products to mobile platforms; The ramifications of the recent acquisitions in the mobility space; How the shifting/evolving mobile landscape will create opportunities; How companies plan to acquire, deploy and support mobile applications; and The key technical trends companies should be aware of when adopting mobile technologies.
1. Founder Labs – Mobile Edition
Week 1 – Ecosystem Overview & Business Models
January 8, 2011
Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)
You are free to Share or Remix any part of this work as long as you attribute this work to SF Mobile (sfmobile.org)
2. Work Network
Lars Kamp Lars Kamp
Management Consulting
Suite 1200
560 Mission Street
San Francisco, CA 94105 San Francisco, CA
415.894.5423 415.894.5423
lars.kamp@accenture.com www.sfmobile.org lars@sfmobile.org
2
4. Q: Whose mission statement is this?
“We have a dream of improving the lives of many millions
of people by means of small, intimate life support
systems that people carry with them everywhere.
These systems will help people to organize their lives, to
communicate with other people, and to access
information of all kinds.
They will be simple to use, and come in a wide range of
models to fit every budget, need, and taste. They will
change the way people live and communicate.”
4
10. Mobile is the single biggest global distribution platform.
PC TV Mobile
PC Installed Base TV Households Mobile Subscribers
2009 2009
1.2 Billion 1.3 Billion
2009
4.0 Billion
2013 2013
1.6 Billion 1.33 Billion
Broadband Pay TV
Subscribers Subscribers
2009 2009
420 Million 600 Million
2013
5.5 Billion
2013 2013
648 Million 739 Million
10 Source: Gartner, PWC, ITU, IDC, Accenture analysis.
11. Evolution of “the stack”: Shift from hardware to software.
Mobile Device Stack
Early days Today
Comms User Interfaces, App Stores &
Shell & UI
e.g. USB, Speaker, Flash Card
e.g. USB, Speaker, Flash Card
Software User Software
External Interfaces,
External Interfaces,
Application
Middleware
Middleware
Phone
Middleware
Hardware Core Operating System
Platform / OS
Drivers Drivers
Chipsets,
Hardware
Processors, Basebands
1-2 MB of >1 GB of open
closed software software
Hardware Software
11 Source: Accenture analysis.
12. Value in mobile is moving up the stack…
DIRECTIONAL
Cost to Per-unit Break-even
Mobile Handset Stack & Elements build ($M) Revenue ($) # of units
Services and Content $0.1M $1.00 0.1M
Screen, User Interfaces,
$20M $0.20 100M
e.g. USB, Speaker, Flash Card
e.g. USB, Speaker, Flash Card
User Software
Value Flow
Application
External Interfaces,
Middleware
$10M $0.10 100M
Device
Middleware
Core Operating System $1,000M $5.00 200M
Chipsets, Processors,
Radio Basebands
Hardware Software
12 Source: Estimates based on industry interviews; see David Wheeler “Linux Kernel 2.6: It's Worth More!” for estimating the cost of the Linux Kernel.
13. … and is fueling the app store economy.
Size of Catalog (K) – Apple App Store vs. Android Market
2008-2010, as of Q2 2010, by Number of Available Apps at End of Quarter, Excluding Books
2008 2009 2010
211,000
~20,000 monthly
submission
149,000
Android
Market
Oct 22
App Store
July 11
97,000
Day 1
62 Apps
Day 1 74,500
500 Apps
52,610 56,200
~7,000
monthly
35,200 submission
25,300 20,100
13,200 11,500
740 4,400 2,900 5,200
600
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Source: Apple press releases & earnings calls, Google, AndroLib, PCWorld, Distimo, Accenture analysis. Catalog size for Apples excludes
13 books. All numbers rounded.
14. But: An app is not a business model.
Loyalty and Retention Rates of Mobile Apps Over Time, 2010
100%
100% 100%
100%
90%
90% 90%
90%
80%
80% 80%
80%
70%
70% 70%
70%
Retention Rate
60%
60% 60%
60%
50%
50% 50%
50%
40%
40% 40%
40%
30%
30% 30%
30%
20%
20% 20%
20%
10%
10% News (9.8%) 10%
10% News (9.1%)
Enter-
Games (2.4%)
0%
0% tainment (2%) 0%
0%
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 0
0 30
30 60
60 90
90 120
120 150
150 180
180
0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Days After First Measurement Days After First Measurement
Source: Flurry, Accenture analysis. User retention defined by the number of users who downloaded an application and launched the application at any time in the past,
and also launched the app within the last seven days, e.g. "30 days ago" represents any new user that launched a given app in January and also again within
the last seven days. "60 days ago" represents new users identified in December and also used within last 7 days. Sample based on relevant 5-6 apps per
14 category with at least 120 days of data availability in the Flurry system.
15. 90% dead after 90 days.
iPhone App Retention Android App Retention
As of January 2010, by Application Category As of January 2010, by Application Category
30 Days 90 Days 30 Days 90 Days
News 52% 20% 58% 18%
Social 40% 9% 38% 5%
Networking
Games 34% 10% 34% 10%
Lifestyle 35% 9% 38% 7%
Enter-
33% 4% 42% 16%
tainment
Average
Retention 39% 10% 42% 11%
Rates
15 Source: Flurry, Accenture analysis.
17. What is “The Cloud”?
A style of computing that provides on demand access to a shared set of
highly scalable services.
Cloud Origins Cloud Today Cloud Benefits
• Cost Reduction
Virtualization Lower infrastructure,
One computer • Virtualization and energy, licensing and
Grid abstracted maintenance costs
acting like
many • Computing as a • Speed to Market
utility Reduces time required
to pilot projects
+ • Scale economies
of central supply
• Uses massively-
• Elasticity / Scalability
On-demand capacity and
high business agility
Grid parallel processing
Computing • Geo-distributed • High Performance
Many with massive Computing
redundancy Provides “infinite”
computers computing
acting like one capacity as needed
17
18. Who is building a cloud?
Facebook – Prineville Yahoo – Lockport Google – The Dalles
Apple – Maiden Amazon – Morrow Microsoft – Dublin
18
19. The cloud: massive off-deck computing for mobile.
19 Source: Amazon press release, December 2010.
23. Coming your way in mobile as well.
Baseband “Fat Modems” Baseband &
Processors Application Processor
Low power silicon for OS-enablement of light High performance, low
voice/SMS and long apps running on top of power application
battery life. baseband. processors.
23
27. Four quadrants and generic business models.
Pre-Load Post-Load
Cloud • SDK and • Transaction fee
developer fees • Subscriptions
to marketplace • Advertising
• Software sales
• In-app
to aid app
development • Display / search
and design • Multimedia
• IP licensing • App sales
• Pre-installed app • Virtual goods
licensing • Digital media
• Software sales sales
• Hardware • Subscriptions
sales/materials
Device
27 Source: Adjusted based on Vision Mobile (visionmobile.com).
29. Expect the center of gravity to shift to post-load.
ILLUSTRATIVE
Ecosystem Revenue Mix Over Time.
100% Pre-Load Revenue Post-Load Revenue
Streams Streams
0%
“Yesterday” “Today” “Tomorrow”
2000 2010 2015 Onwards
Primary • Licensing • Licensing • Social
Revenue • Software sales • Ads • Ads
Models • Hardware sales • Software sales • Service subscriptions
• Service subscriptions • Hardware sales • Transaction fees
• Service subscriptions • Privacy (User data)
29
30. A few ideas…
Enterprise Apps Untapped market w/ customers who are used to paying lots of money for bad software.
Consumer Apps Gaming, social networking, dating, digital marketing are still in the nascent stage for mobile.
Cloud Services Apps need to connect; remote service access; solves fragmentation – runs in browser.
Security Prevent abuse of sensitive data that resides on or can be accessed over mobile device.
Enablers On-device engagement requires enablers, e.g. authentication, payments, middleware
Analytics Engagement data provides opportunity for data mining for e.g. tracking, reporting purposes
Shannon’s Law Between powerful devices and clouds, wireless links remain the bottleneck.
Devices Power-efficient devices, enabled with mobile OS, for vertical purposes, e.g. healthcare
Smart Grid Drive efficiency in electrical grids through mobile web services and devices.
30
31. And with that… Good luck!
Nada, 1988
“I have come here to
chew bubblegum and
kick ass...and I'm all
out of bubblegum.”
31