This document summarizes Canadian retail sales data for September 2016. Retail sales rose 0.6% nationally, driven by gains in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Sales increased in seven of eleven subsectors. Specifically, retail sales grew in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia primarily due to higher motor vehicle sales. E-commerce sales accounted for 2.1% of total retail sales but are estimated to be 5-7% when including online purchases from foreign retailers. The document provides additional details on retail sales by province and industry sector.

1. September 2016 Retail Sales -
Canada - Analysis and Commentary
- November 22, 2016
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
DATE: NOVEMBER 22, 2016

2. Overview
 This presentation will discuss retail sales in Canada for September 2016

3. Agenda
 Analysis
 Comments
 ECOMMERCE
 Retail Sales / Provinces
 Retail Sales / Industry

4.  While September’s gains were narrowly based, it’s nice to finally see a positive reading of
more than a tick or two after a lengthy lull for sales. We don’t expect the consumer to lead
the expansion in the year ahead, but at the same time we weren’t expecting it to drag it
lower either; thus, the uptick after a series of soft retail reports is a relief. (Source - BMO
Economics)
 Consumers may continue to boost economic activity over the near-term, particularly as
housing related spending continues to benefit from strong home price growth and sales.
However, interest rates are starting to tick up, which could slow this momentum as we head
into the new year. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is up more than 30 basis
points since the U.S. election and 40 basis points since the start of the year, moves that have
quickly started to pass through to lending rates. With employment growth running at a
modest rate and the unemployment rate still relatively lofty compared to pre-recession
levels, this rise in rates is likely to bite into consumer wallets (TD Economics)
 Summary
 Retail Sales will be impacted by carbon taxation coming into Ontario 2017
Comments

5.  Following four months of little change, retail sales rose 0.6% to $44.4 billion in September on the strength of
higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Sales were up in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 65% of
retail trade. After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales increased 0.6%.
 Retail sales were up in eight provinces in September. Higher sales in Quebec (+0.9%), Ontario (+0.4%) and
British Columbia (+0.9%) accounted for most of the increase. Retailers in Quebec reported a 0.9% gain in
September due in large part to higher sales of trucks at new car dealers.
 Following a 0.3% decline in August, retail sales rose 0.4% in Ontario. Higher sales at motor vehicle and parts
dealers more than offset lower sales at food and beverage stores. Sales in British Columbia (+0.9%) increased
for the fourth consecutive month. Following a 0.2% gain in August, retail sales in Alberta were up 0.3% on
the strength of higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Results were mixed among other subsectors.
 In the Atlantic provinces, sales were up for the second time in three months in both New Brunswick (+1.7%)
and Newfoundland and Labrador (+1.5%). In Nova Scotia (+0.8%), retail sales increased for the third
consecutive month. In Prince Edward Island (+3.9%), sales rose on the strength of higher sales at new car
dealers, which preceded an increase in the harmonized sales tax in the province.
Summary / Canada Retail Sales
Source – Stats Canada

6.  The figures in this section are based on unadjusted (that is, not
seasonally adjusted) estimates.
 Retail e-commerce is the combination of retail sales made over the
Internet by traditional store retailers and retail sales made over the
Internet by non-store retailers in the electronic shopping and mail
order houses industry.
 On an unadjusted basis, e-commerce sales by Canadian retailers in
September were $958 million, accounting for 2.1% of total retail sales
in Canada.
 In the first nine months of 2016, the e-commerce proportion of total
retail sales has ranged from 1.9% in July to 2.3% in January.
ECOMMERCE
Source – Stats Canada
Comment:
• Stats Can started to include on-line monthly sales
with this report whereas previously it only included
annual sales. The problem is that StatsCan cannot
provide a seasonally adjusted m/m figure because
there isn’t enough history to seasonally adjust the
data.
• This internet thing is new you know. That said, on an
unadjusted basis, on-line sales were almost $1 billion
in September ($958 million) and represent just 2.1%
of total sales according to StatsCan.
• Note that this only includes on-line sales by Canadian-
based retailers, not online purchases by Canadians
from foreign retailers. (Scotiabank)
eCommerce sales are likely about 5-7% of the total
retailers sales in Canada. Amazon has reported
strong online sales growth for the 3rd Quarter
Source -
http://www.canadasbeststorefixtures.com/10-e-
commerce-trends-for-2016/ or
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/innovation/cana
da-ecommerce-innovators/

7. Canada Retail Sales / Provinces
Source – Stats Canada

8. Canada Retail Sales / Industry
Source – Stats Canada

9. Q&A
 Contact: Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com