The document provides an executive summary and highlights for Q1 2009 from SEB's CFO Jan Erik Back. Key points include:
- Operating profit was SEK 4.8 billion before provisions despite doubling collective provisions in Baltic countries.
- Net interest income increased 40% due to falling interest rates. Costs remained stable through cost management programs.
- Merchant Banking strengthened its position in the Nordic markets and supported rising client exports.
- Provisions were increased conservatively, especially in Baltic countries, with impaired loans at 2.9% of exposure.
- A successful rights issue added SEK 15 billion in new capital, strengthening the capital position.
Cirka hälften av hushållen tror på stigande bostadspriser och knappt vart femte hushåll tror på fallande priser. Det visar SEB:s Boprisindikator för september. Hushållen tror att reporäntan ligger på cirka 1,2 procent om ett år och andelen som planerar att binda räntan faller tillbaka för andra månaden i följd.
Cirka hälften av hushållen tror på stigande bostadspriser och knappt vart femte hushåll tror på fallande priser. Det visar SEB:s Boprisindikator för september. Hushållen tror att reporäntan ligger på cirka 1,2 procent om ett år och andelen som planerar att binda räntan faller tillbaka för andra månaden i följd.
EU to save banks but abandon state if Greece rejects austeritySEBgroup
The EU will save its banks but abandon the state if Greece rejects austerity in the upcoming vote on 17 June, SEB’s chief strategist Johan Javeus projects in a presentation where he outlines what might lie ahead for the recession-hit country. Recent opinion polls suggest the country will get a pro-austerity government, but the final outcome is far from certain and since Greek law does not allow more polls until the election, Europe will be flying blind for a couple of weeks.
Economic growth has led to lower employment and combined with earnings from abroad and remittances this has added a significant amount of funds to households’ disposable income in all three Baltic countries, SEB’s latest Baltic Household Outlook shows.
SEB sees 25 per cent chance of Riksbank cutSEBgroup
SEB’s experts see a 25 per cent chance the Riksbank will cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent at Wednesday’s rate decision. An investor survey done by SEB shows only 8 per cent of respondents foresee a rate cut and in an internal survey among SEB’s own fixed income traders and experts, 18 per cent says they believe the rate will be cut. The alternative to a cut is an unchanged repo rate.
SEB-report: EU financial transactions tax unlikely to passSEBgroup
The European Commission will present a proposal for a Tobin tax on financial transactions this autumn. Implementation of this tax is unlikely as both Sweden and the UK oppose it. It would be easier to find support for a stability levy, writes SEB economist Andreas Johnson in a note published Wednesday.
SEB:s Boprisindikator visar att hushållen är mindre positiva till bostadsmark...SEBgroup
Färre än tidigare tror på stigande bostadspriser och fler tror på fallande priser. Det visar SEB:s Boprisindikator för juni, som faller tillbaka jämfört med förra månaden.
Svenskarna är mindre nöjda med välfärden jämfört med sina nordiska grannar. Det visar SEB:s nya välfärdsindex som bygger på tolv olika frågor om tilltron till välfärdstjänster och trygghetssystemen.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
2. Highlights Q1 2009
Operating profit (SEKbn)
Strong underlying business
4.2 4.6 3.7 4.6 2.4 3.5 2.5 4.0 1.8
– SEK 4.8bn before provisions for credit
losses and impairment charges Q1 Q1 Q1
07 Q2 Q3 Q4 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 09
5
Stable cost development 4
3
Doubled collective provisions in
2
the Baltic countries 1
0
Full goodwill write-off in Ukraine
-1
-2
Strong capital position after
-3
successful rights issue Profit before gains and credit losses
Credit losses
Goodwill impairment
2
3. Continued high operating income
● Strong net interest income
● Lower commission income
● Robust net financial income; M-t-M valuation losses of SEK 0.4bn
● Re-bounce of life insurance income
● FX translation effects SEK +0.7bn Q1 09 vs. Q1 08
Operating income
SEK bn Income
Excluding one-offs and portfolio losses
12
8
4
0
Q1 07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09
3
4. Income well diversified
Net financial income
Net interest income Net fee and
-15% +112%
+40% (excl MTM portfolios)
commission income
SEKm and change
Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 09
Q1 09 vs. Q1 08
Total NII +12%
1,680
growth
1 952
1 393
-25%
Volume
551 1 111
1 345
-20%
Growth
-35%
930
569
Margin 648 517 462
20
Development
142
1,110
Other Advisory Value Base Other FX Capital markets,
and based services equities,
brokerage portfolios, etc.
4
5. Lower interest rates boost
Net interest income
Net interest income +40% Big impact from falling short-term interest rates
+12%
Drop in quarterly average overnight interest rates
Total NII
SEK EUR USD
1,680
growth
-25%
Volume
-2.8%
-2.8% -3.2%
551
Growth
Margin
20
Development
Q1 09 vs Q1 08 Q1 09 vs Q4 08
Portfolios etc +1,529 +759
Book equity -419 -378
Other 1,110
Net 1,110 392
5
6. Income well diversified
Net financial income
Net interest income Net fee and
-15% +112%
+40% (excl MTM portfolios)
commission income
SEKm and change
Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 09
Q1 09 vs. Q1 08
Total NII +12%
1,680
growth
1 952
1 393
-25%
Volume
551 1 111
1 345
-20%
Growth
-35%
930
569
Margin 648 517 462
20
Development
142
1,110
Other Advisory Value Base Other FX Capital markets,
and based services equities,
brokerage portfolios, etc.
6
7. Underlying costs levels under control
Cost management program 2007 – 2009
500 net FTE
Achieved by Q1 2009 Target by Q4 2009
reduction 2009
*
SEK 1,304m SEK 1,500 – 2,000m 230 FTEs by Q1
Unchanged operating expenses on comparable basis
SEKm Change Q1 2009 vs. Q1 2008
“Business related” “Market related”
594
388
Q1 2008 Q1 2009
240 195
68
6,027 7,244
6,067 6,650
-275
Cost Inflation, Redundancies Pensions FX translation Goodwill
efficiency acquisitions impairment
etc.
7
8. Merchant Banking strengthening its position
Nordic target market
GTS Corporate Banking TCM
100
Core
SEKm
banking
6,000
relation-
ships
%
Large
corporates
3,000 Nordics
Large
corporates
Sweden
0
100
0
0
Perceived
Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 08 Q1 09
100
quality
Profit before
Income
credit losses
2008 2009
NB. MTM portfolio losses SEK 0.4bn lower in Q1 09
8
9. Strengthened franchise in Merchant Banking
Market shares, Nordic stock markets Supporting clients’ exports
Trade finance portfolio volumes, indexed
Jan – March, 2009, per cent
200
+77%
SEB
180
9,5%
Enskilda
160
140
SHB
5.7%
120
Morgan 100
Stanley 4.5%
80
60
Deutsche
Bank 4.3% 40
20
Credit
Suisse 4.2% 0
Q1-07 Q1-09
9
10. Merchant Banking – Investment portfolio
Volume reduction partly offset by FX Mark-to-market loss
131
123
SEK m Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 09
Volume FX Structured
101
-30 +22
63
credits P/L -872 -187 -454
62
50
Financial Equity -1,630 -585 -441
institutions
55 45 -2,502 -772 -895
38
Covered
13 13 16
bonds etc The unrealised valuation loss on 2008 reclassified securities in
Q1 08 Q1 09
Q1 09 the quarter was SEK 3,075m.
Reported
FX adjusted*
Rating status of Structured credits
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09
100% 88.5%
● Rating actions on 31
80%
out of 615 positions
60%
during this quarter
40%
● No impaired assets
20% 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% 2.2%
● No level 3 assets
0%
AAA AA/A BBB BB/B CCC/CC
* Using FX rates as of 31 March 2008
10
11. Germany – potential and challenges
Operating profit 2005-2008 Operating profit Q1 2009
(SEKm) (SEKm)
1 600
Q1 08 Q1 09
1 200
291
M +76%
B
800 165
400
R Q1 08 Q1 09
0
E
-212
T
-400
A
38
I
2005 2006 2007 2008
L
Treasury Customer Business
● Further steps to separate Retail from Merchant Banking
and Asset Management have been formalised
● Attractive corporate growth segment for SEB
● Stable asset quality
11
12. Retail Banking income holding up
Lending volumes in local currency
Germany Lithuania Latvia
% change, Q1 2009 vs Q1 2008
Estonia Card Sweden
SEK m
5,000 9%
Since year-
end -5%
Swedish
Retail +9%
5%
Swedish
2,000
Retail +20%
-3 %
Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 08 Q1 09
-3 %
-5%
Profit before
Income credit losses
-1,000 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Germany
12
14. A successful rights issue
Key themes
Trading performance since announcement
150%
●SEK 15,070m added
140%
●Strong primary take-up –
130%
98.6%
28.0%
120%
●Secondary rights
Strong
Outperformance
Indexed Price
110%
oversubscription
0.9%
100%
●Broad Institutional Support
(1.8%)
90%
(12.4%)
●Very significant retail
80%
participation
70%
●Strong liquidity in shares and
60%
rights
4- 10- 16- 22- 28- 6- 12- 18- 24- 30-
Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar
SEB Euro Stoxx Banks Nordic Banks Composite OMX
Source: Bloomberg as of 30-Mar-2009
Note: Nordic Banks Composite consists of Swedbank, Nordea, Danske Bank, DNB Nor and SHB
14
15. Strong capital situation
Capital ratios, Basel II without floors Risk-weighted assets
SEK bn
Per cent Core Tier 1 ratio Tier 1 ratio
15%
Q4 2008 818
12.0 Migration FX
10.2
20 12
10%
Long-term Basel II Tier 1 target
12 8
5%
Other Extended
Required minimum Tier 1 in order to
IRB roll-
qualify for Swedish stabilisation
outs
830
measures is 4%
Q1 2009
0%
15
16. Buffering up for Baltic challenges
Impaired loans, gross
Provisions for Net Credit Losses
% of credit exposure excl. banks
% of Q1 2009, SEB Group SEK 2,386m
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Q4 2008* Q1 2009*
4.0%
Estonia 0,76 1,73 3.5%
3.0%
Latvia 2,86 6,41
2.5%
Lithuania 3,33 3,59
2.0%
Baltics 2,59 3,70 1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Baltic countries Dec '07 Mar '08 Jun '08 Sep '08 Dec '08 Mar '09
71% Provisioning to build-up reserves
SEK m Specific Collective
1,200
1,000
29% 800
600
400
200
Nordics, 0
-200
Germany, etc.
*Annualised figures Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09
16
17. Conservative provisioning policy
Gross level of Impaired loans
Individually assessed, per cent of lending
Group Baltics
2.9
2.0
0.9 0.8
0.7
0.4
Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 09
Reserve ratios*
% Q1 08 Q4 08 Q1 09
Group 76.9% 68.5% 71.6%
Baltics 139.9% 59.6% 69.3%
• excluding homogeneous groups
17
18. Sharp economic deterioration
in Ukraine
Dramatically changed economic environment since acquisition in
2004 and 2007
No expansion plan
Full goodwill write-off SEK 594m
GDP forecast Initial and revised
GDP forecast
12
8
4
0 Lending SEK 2.7bn
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Customers 105,000
-4
# of branches 100
-8
Employees 1,331
Q1 09 op profit SEK -153m
-12
18
19. Stable asset quality outside CEE
Level of Impaired Loans* Level of net credit losses*
SEB Group Germany Germany Baltics
Nordic Baltic Nordics SEB Group
4,00
3,0%
3,50
2,5%
3,00
2,0%
2,50
1,5% 2,00
1,50
1,0%
1,00
0,5%
0,50
0,0% 0,00
Dec Mar Jun SepDec Mar Jun SepDec Mar 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Mar
'06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '2009
* % of Credit Exposure excluding Banks *Annualised figures
19
20. Resilient income generation
– first line of defence
12-month rolling earnings generation excluding one-off effects
SEKm
50
Operating income
40
30
Profit before credit losses
20 and goodwill
10
Operating profit
0
Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09
Profit before credit losses
Merchant Retail Wealth Life
3,3
SEK bn SEK bn SEK bn SEK bn
1,6 1,3
1,0
0,5
0,5 0,2 0,3
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2008 Q1 2009
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2008 Q1 2009
20
21. Support revenue generation
– focus on core clients
– key competitive advantages
Prompt addressing of problem
credits
Maintain adequate buffer of
capital and reserves
21