The document provides weather forecasts for various regions of Scotland over multiple days: - Showers and potential thunderstorms are forecast for many areas, with showers heaviest in western regions. Low pressure will bring rain bands and blustery winds. - Daytime temperatures will range from 11-21C with overnight lows of 8-13C. Showers will continue but become fewer overnight. - Specific forecasts are given for Perth/Angus/Aberdeen/Moray Firth, Western Isles/NW Highlands/Skye/Argyll, and Shetland/Orkney/NE Caithness outlining rain amounts, wind speeds, and risk levels. Thunder is possible but risk

1. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Cloudy with showery light rain and drizzle moving in from the west this morning. Becoming somewhat drier and eventually brighter through this afternoon with just the odd left-over shower. Mostly dry overnight with clear periods; just the chance of a shower in the west.
Breezy.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Spells of rain and drizzle at first this morning. the rain will then turn to showers later this morning and in to this afternoon from the west. Rather breezy, especially in the far north. Further showers this evening and overnight.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
A rather cloudy morning with some light rain at first. From mid-morning onwards, brightening up in places but with the chance of a shower too. Brisk south to south-west winds. Overnight, rather a lot of cloud with further showers. remaining blustery.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
An Atlantic low will drift slowly east, tracking across the Faeroe Islands by 1800 today. High pressure will sit to the south-west, with a weak extension to this high across more southern and south-western parts of the British Isles. An occluding front, tied in with the low to the
north, will drift south-east, clearing overnight from south-eastern England. However, as the front runs in to relatively high pressure, it will tend to decay. Post-front, showers are expected across north-western areas of Britain.
Upland Forecast
No differences to the lowland forecast
Scheduled Utilities Forecast - SHEPD (North) - Tuesday 29 Jul 2014
Day 1 of 5 (0600 Tuesday 29th July to 0600 Wednesday 30th July)

2. Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
15 W 30 10 W 20 15 W 30 15 W 30 15 W 35 15 W 30 20 W 35 20 SW 30 20 SW 25
15 SW 35 10 W 25 15 W 30 15 W 30 15 SW 45 15 SW 35 20 W 45 25 W 30 20 SW 30
10 SW 30 10 SW 15 15 SW 25 10 W 30 15 SW 40 10 SW 30 15 W 40 25 SW 35 20 SW 30
20 W 30 15 W 20 20 W 25 15 W 30 20 W 40 15 W 30 15 W 30 25 W 35 20 SW 30
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
20 11 21 11 19 12 17 11 17 11 20 11 17 12 18 12 17 13
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 1.0 0 - 1.0 0 - 1.0 0.2 - 1.5 1.4 - 2.8 0.1 - 1.1 1.1 - 2.4 0 - 1.0 0.5 - 1.2 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 1.0 0 - 0 0 - 0 1.8 - 3.7 3.3 - 6.0 1.0 - 3.2 1.6 - 3.8 1.2 - 3.4 1.4 - 2.5 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 06h-18h
18h-06h 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 18h-06h

3. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Sunny spells but with the chance of a shower, especially in the afternoon. Rather breezy. Turning mostly dry overnight with clear spells although cloud increasing again from the west later in the night.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Showers to come, some potentially heavy and even lengthy in the north. Fresh westerly winds. Further showers overnight with longer spells of rain moving in to the south towards morning.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
A rather windy day with showers. A few sunny periods too. Occasional showers overnight but also plenty of dry weather.
Synoptic Discussion and Confidence
Low pressure will continue to slowly drift east to the north of Scotland. The low will bring some rather brisk winds to Scotland along with showers, in the westerly flow. A new shallow low pressure will drift south-east towards western Scotland overnight.
Upland Forecast
No differences to the lowland forecast
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
15 W 35 15 W 30 20 W 35 15 W 35 20 W 40 15 W 35 15 W 35 25 W 35 20 W 30
15 W 35 15 W 35 15 W 35 15 W 35 15 W 35 15 W 35 15 W 30 20 W 35 20 W 30
10 SW 25 10 W 30 10 W 25 5 SW 25 10 W 30 10 SW 25 5 W 25 20 NW 30 20 NW 25
10 W 20 10 NW 15 10 SW 15 10 SW 15 10 NW 25 10 W 20 5 E 10 15 NW 25 20 NW 25
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
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Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
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Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
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Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area Perth & Angus Aberdeenshire Moray Firth Argyll & West Highland NW Highland & Skye Central Highlands Western Isles Orkney & NE Caithness Shetland Area
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Risk (RAG)
Temp
(Max/Min)
21 11 21 12 18 12 18 11 17 11 20 10 17 13 16 12 16 12
Temp
(Max/Min)
Wind Wind
06h-12h 06h-12h
12h-18h 12h-18h
18h-00h 18h-00h
00h-06h 00h-06h
Rain (mm) Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 1.0 0.2 - 1.0 0 - 1.0 0.8 - 2.1 3.7 - 8.0 0.6 - 2.1 1.4 - 3.3 1.7 - 3.5 1.7 - 2.9 06h-18h
18h-06h 0 - 0 0 - 1.0 0 - 1.0 0.4 - 1.3 0.5 - 1.6 0.1 - 1.2 0.2 - 1.1 0.1 - 1.1 0 - 1.0 18h-06h
Snow/Line
Icing
Snow/Line
Icing
06h-18h 06h-18h
18h-06h 18h-06h
Lightning Lightning
06h-18h 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 06h-18h
18h-06h 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 18h-06h
Day 2 of 5 (0600 Wednesday 30th July to 0600 Thursday 31st July)

4. General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Showers and longer spells of rain developing, becoming locally thundery with
infrequent lightning. Turning mostly dry in the evening and night with the risk of
lightning receding.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Showers or longer spells of rain. Thunderstorms are possible, especially in the
afternoon. Further showers overnight, mainly in the far north. However, the risk of
lightning is likely to recede through the evening time.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Mostly dry across Shetland. Elsewhere, showers, some heavy and thundery with
infrequent lightning. The risk of lightning will recede through the evening although
some showers are likely to continue all night.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
A few showers at first. Through the afternoon, spells of rain will head north. Some
heavy rain is possible with the small risk of embedded lightning. Rain turning more
showery through the evening and night. Breezy.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
A few showers at first. Through the afternoon, spells of rain will head north. Some
heavy rain is possible with the small risk of embedded lightning. Rain turning more
showery through the evening and night. Breezy.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Showers or some longer spells of rain, especially later in the day and overnight.
General Forecast - Perth, Angus, Aberdeen, Moray Firth
Showers with brighter spells. Fewer showers overnight.
General Forecast - Western Isles, NW & Cent Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Showers, some heavy and prolonged with a threat of thunder. Showers easing
overnight with the risk of lightning receding.
General Forecast - Shetland, Orkney, NE Caithness
Overnight rain clearing to the north leaving behind showers. Blustery.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
20 SW 30 20 SW 30 20 E 30 20 S 30 20 S 35 20 SE 30 30 S 45 30 S 50 25 SW 40
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
Snow
(cm)
Line
Icing
Height
(m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Day 3 of 5 (0600 Thursday 31st July to 0600 Friday 1st August) Day 4 of 5 (0600 Friday 1st August to 0600 Saturday 2nd August) Day 5 of 5 (0600 Saturday 2nd August to 0600 Sunday 3rd August)
Area
Day Three Day Four Day Five
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Perth, Angus, Aberdeen,
Moray Firth
Western Isles, NW & Cent
Highlands, Skye, Argyll
Shetland, Orkney, NE
Caithness
Risk
(RAG)
Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green
Temp
(Max/Min)
19 11 18 9 16 9 18 10 18 9 16 11 19 10 18 8 17 11
Wind
24 hours
Rain (mm) 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total
24 hours 2 - 10 3 - 11 2 - 14 10 - 29 6 - 24 9 - 25 5 - 14 2 - 19 8 - 17
Snow/Line
Icing
24 hours
Lightning
24 hours 2C 2C 2D 2D 2C 3 2D 3 3
Days 6 to 10 (0600 Sunday 3rd August to 0600 Friday 8th August)
Outlook
Low pressure is likely to remain close by, generally centered to the north-west of Scotland. Fronts will cross the country at times giving spells of rain. Showers are likely in between the bands of rain, especially in the west.

5. Overall risk of disruption
Severe risk Red
Significant risk Amber
No risk Green
The above reflects the worst case of any of the following
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st November - 31st March
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st April - 31st October
S, SW, W & NW
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
N, NE, E & SE
Islands 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
West Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
East Mainland 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Rainfall (mm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
>75 >100
>50 >50
<=50 <=50
Snowfall (cm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
if 24hr total >=10 >=5 >=10
>1 >=5
<=1 <5
if 24hr total >=5 >1
<=1
if 24hr total <5 any amount
Line icing
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
Severe Severe
other 12hr > Nil Moderate Moderate
other 12hr = Nil Moderate Slight
Slight Nil
Nil
Lightning risk and disruption colour code matrix

6. Islands Shetland; Orkney & NE Caithness; Western Isles; Cent. Highlands
West Mainland NW Highlands & Skye; Argyll & West
East Mainland Moray Firth; Aberdeenshire; Perth & Angus
Risk level 1 A B C D
Risk level 2 A B C D
Risk level 3 A B C D
Risk level 4 A B C D
Lightning Risk Categories
1 - Lightning will almost certainly occur across the region, or is occurring
2 - Lightning is likely across the region
3 - Lightning is unlikely across the region, although convective activity or an active front is forecast
4 - Lightning is not expected to occur across the region
Lightning Intensity Index
A - Very frequent lightning strikes
B - Frequent lightning strikes
C - Infrequent lightning strikes
D - Very infrequent lightning strikes
All Temperatures in °C
All Wind speeds in MPH