Scenari Internazionali - Umberto Bertelè

@umbertobertele
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SCENARI INTERNAZIONALI
Umberto Bertelè
Professore Emerito di Strategia e Chairman Osservatori Digital Innovation
School of Management - Politecnico di Milano

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IL GRANDE RITORNO DELLA POLITICA

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BREXIT

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Some things are now obvious. Brexit really does mean Brexit, and the political
imperative to curb immigration means that the
UK cannot remain in the single market indefinitely.
Brexit will be hard; the question is how hard Theresa May and the EU’s leaders
will make it.
FT 6.10.2016

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A day after her home secretary told British businesses were
hiring too many foreigners, Mrs May said: “If you believe you’re a citizen of
the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere. You don’t understand what the very word
‘citizenship’ means.”
She criticised uncaring bosses, tax-avoiding international companies, internet
companies that refused to co-operate in the fight against terrorism and directors
who took out “massive dividends while knowing the company pension is about to
go bust”. She said: “I’m putting you on warning: this can’t go on any more.”
FT 5.10.2016

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FT 5.10.2016
She repeated her plans to shake up corporate governance in UK
boardrooms by putting worker and consumer representatives on boards.
The speech drew comparisons with the supposedly anti-business rhetoric
of former Labour leader Ed Miliband.
Mrs May senses an opportunity to move the Conservatives to the centre ground of
politics at a time when Labour and the UKIP are consumed by internal divisions.
Her comments also reflect her view that the Brexit vote was a symptom of a
widening divide in Britain between London and the rest of the country,
between a relatively affluent older generation and the young, and between a
“privileged few” and millions of ordinary voters struggling to “get by”.

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Brexit, Merkel: "No accesso a mercato Ue senza libera circolazione
di persone e merci in UK.
La partecipazione presuppone il rispetto delle quattro libertà
fondamentali, tra cui appunto la libertà di circolazione delle persone.
Altrimenti scateniamo in tutta Europa un movimento in cui ognuno farà solo ciò
che vorrà”.

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Wall Street bosses warn on Brexit risks
‘Years of uncertainty’ ahead for banks in London, says JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon
OCTOBER 8, 2016
“My personal opinion is that Brexit made the chances of the eurozone not surviving in
the next decade five times higher,” said Mr Dimon. Mr Gorman, CEO of Mogan
Stanley, said: “Brexit is all about the survival of the union. It’s been a phenomenal
social, economic and military success. But somewhere that has been lost in this
discussion. And that discussion exists in Spain, Italy and across the union.”

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LA “TERZA” GUERRA MONDIALE
CONFLITTI, ATTENTATI, GUERRE, COLPI DI STATO

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RIFUGIATI E MIGRANTI
GUERRE E DEMOGRAFIA CREANO
TENSIONI FORTISSIME IN MOLTI PAESI
EUROPEI

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IL DRAMMA DELLA STAGNAZIONE

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QUANDO L’ECONOMIA NON CRESCE:
IL DEMOLTIPLICATORE
KEYNESIANO DEGLI INVESTIMENTI

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QUANDO L’ECONOMIA CRESCE POCO:
L’AUMENTO DELLA PRODUTTIVITA’
IMPEDISCE LA CRESCITA
DELL’OCCUPAZIONE

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IL CIRCOLO VIZIOSO:
QUANDO LA «NON CRESCITA» DELL’ECONOMIA
GENERA DISOCCUPAZIONE
MENO PERSONE CREANO REDDITO, PIU’ PERSONE
DEVONO ESSERE MANTENUTE, CRESCONO LE
TASSE E/O IL DEBITO PUBBLICO

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NON TUTTI PERO’ SOFFRONO
German industrial output beats expectations
Results indicate industrial production would increase in the third quarter
FT - OCTOBER 7, 2016

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IL SISTEMA BANCARIO

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PERCHE’ LE BANCHE SONO IN CRISI
1. PERCHE’ CRESCONO I NON PERFORMING LOANS [NPL]: «FIGLI»
SOPRATTUTTO DEI FALLIMENTI DELLE IMPRESE E DELLE INIZIATIVE
IMMOBILIARI
2. PERCHE’ IL CET1-COMMON EQUITY TIER 1 – RAPPORTO FRA CAPITALE A
DISPOSIZIONE DELLA BANCA E SUE ATTIVITA’ (PONDERATE PER IL
RISCHIO) – DEVE ESSERE, PER L’EFFETTO COMBINATO UE-BASILEA3,
MOLTO PIU’ ALTO CHE NEL PERIODO ANTE-CRISI
3. PERCHE’ I TASSI DI INTERESSE SONO PAUROSAMENTE BASSI, A CAUSA
DELLE POLITICHE MONETARIE DELLE BANCHE CENTRALI

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LE BANCHE DEVONO RECUPERARE EFFICIENZA
E PROFITTABILITA’ PER NON MORIRE
DEVONO QUINDI PRENDERE ATTO DELLE CONSEGUENZE
DELLA DIGITALIZZAZIONE:
RIDUCENDO FORTEMENTE IL PERSONALE,
RIDUCENDO FORTEMENTE GLI SPORTELLI,
FONDENDOSI PER CONSEGUIRE ECONOMIE DI SCALA

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FT – 29set16
Commerzbank to cut nearly 10,000 jobs in
restructuring
Germany’s second-biggest bank expects to take a €700m writedown in strategic overhaul

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WSJ - Oct. 3, 2016
ING to Cut 7,000 Jobs in Cost-Savings Drive
Latest measures include more cautious financial targets for
2020

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LE IMPRESE

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ott 2015 ott 2016
Apple [$bn] 651,31 609,16
Alphabet 439,08 541,50
Microsoft 347,75 449,94
Amazon 247,62 397,95
Facebook 259,36 370,42
Exxon Mobil 303,08 360,76
Berkshire H. 324,86 355,50
Johnson & Johnson 257,33 326,06
Tencent 155,54 264,26
Alibaba 162,30 262,24
LE TOP-10 AL MONDO PER CAPITALIZZAZIONE

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Apple closes in on $775bn market cap,
now twice as large as No. 2 Exxon Mobil
February 23, 2015
Apple stock hit a new high of $133 at the closing bell on Monday,
rocketing up 2.7 percent on the day to grow its market capitalization
to just under $775 billion, a number two times larger than second-
largest publicly traded U.S. company Exxon Mobil.

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ott 2015 ott 2016
General Electric 251,91 260,59
China Mobile 242,39 257,82
JPMorgan Chase 231,35 244,50
Nestlé 236,25 239,61
AT&T 201,45 239,13
Royal Dutch Shell 216,71 238,35
Procter & Gamble 237,17
Ind.&Comm.BankC 240,02 235,44
Wells Fargo 270,12 227,96
Wal-Mart 207,26 221,69
LE SECONDE 10

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ott 2015 ott 2016
Samsung 154,68 216,19
Roche 232,56 210,06
Novartis 258,58 206,59
Anheuser-Busch InBev 206,42
Pfizer 203,34 203,56
Verizon 185,92 203,49
Toyota 200,44 194,86
PetroChina 240,02 190,45
ANCORA SOPRA QUOTA 200

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Toyota 194,86 Didi Chuxing 33,00
Daimler 77,13 Hyundai 32,91
Volkswagen 70,67 Tesla 29,89
Uber 68,00 Renault* 22,45
BMW 56,30 Ferrari 13,13
General Motors 50,51 PSA 12,39
Ford 49,59 CNH Industrial 10,10
Nissan* 42,06 FCA 8,36
NELL’AUTOMOTIVE (miliardi di $)

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Uber 68,0 12,9
Xiaomi 46,0 1,4
Didi Chuxing 33,0 8,6
Airbnb 25,5 2,3
Palantir 20,0 1,9
Lufax 18,5 1,7
Meituan-Dianping 18,3 3,3
Snapchat 17,8 2,4
WeWork 16,0 1,4
Flipkart 15,0 3,0
GLI UNICORNI (miliardi di $)
Companies [154] valued at $1 billion or more by venture-capital firms

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TUTTA LA BORSA ITALIANA VALE
MOLTO MENO DI GOOGLE
ott 2015 ott 2016
ENI $bn 63,47 54,05 €bn [48,23]
ENEL 43,63 42,97 [38,35]
INTESA SANPAOLO 61,61 37,54 [33,50]
LUXOTTICA 33,69 22,15 [19,77]
UNICREDIT 40,33 17,70 [13,12]
FCA 19,59 8,36 [ 7,46]
FERRARI - 13,13
CNH INDUSTRIAL 8,05 10,00 [8,92]
270,37 205,90

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LE PRIME 5 IMPRESE ITALIANE PER CAPITALIZZAZIONE
VALGONO COMPLESSIVAMENTE 175 MILIARDI di $
TUTTE INSIEME VALGONO MENO DEL 30% DI APPLE
IL 32% DI ALPHABET (GOOGLE), MENO DEL 40% DI MICROSOFT
IL 44% DI AMAZON, MENO DEL 50% DI FACEBOOK
CON L’AGGIUNTA DELLA «GALASSIA FIAT», SI ARRIVEREBBE AL
VENTICINQUESIMO POSTO DELLA CLASSIFICA MONDIALE
NON ERA COSI’ PRIMA DELLA «GRANDE CRISI»

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Exxon Mobil 350,0 Eni 104,9
General Electric 291,4 Unicredit * 87,6
Microsoft 212,7 Intesa Sanpaolo 69,6
Citigroup 190,7 Enel 48,5
Royal Dutch Shell 188,9 Generali 41,7
Gazprom 183,9 Telecom Italia 37,3
AT&T 183,4 Fiat 26,9
Ind.&Comm.Bank C. 168,1 …
BP Amoco 167,0 Luxottica 13,1
Toyota 165,5 Monte Paschi S. 12,1
IL 29 GIUGNO 2007 (miliardi di €)

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LA DIGITALIZZAZIONE
DELL’ECONOMIA E DELLE IMPRESE

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“They all want to eat our lunch”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase
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Marc Andreessen - venture capitalist
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Digitization, like electricity, is a general-purpose technology that underpins a
huge share of economic activity.
More than two-thirds of US adults have smartphones and the shift toward
mobile has led to skyrocketing usage in areas from e-commerce and digital
payments to social media engagement.
[McKinsey Global Institute “Digital America” - dicembre 2015].

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I tre volti della “disruption”
L’innovazione letteralmente travolge un prodotto (bene e/o
servizio), una famiglia di prodotti o un intero settore, e insieme le
imprese incumbent che su questi vivevano e prosperavano.

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L’innovazione rende disponibile un nuovo prodotto, che entra in
competizione - almeno per una parte degli utilizzi - con gli esistenti,
sottraendo mercato e minando profittabilità e valore degli incumbent.
L’innovazione provoca un cambiamento di rilevanza fra i diversi
attori della filiera (effetto “punteruolo rosso”): non costringe
nessuno a uscire di scena, ma - modificando la ripartizione dei profitti di
filiera - spinge in direzioni diverse le loro capitalizzazioni.

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LA PAURA DELLA “DISRUPTION”
LE OPPORTUNITA’ DELL’INNOVAZIONE
COGLIERE LE OPPORTUNITA’
o
SENTIRSI VITTIME PREDESTINATE

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Work survival in the era of automation

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FT - April 6, 2016

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“Today every business is a digital business: non esiste comparto
dell’economia in cui non sia presente qualche componente in formato digitale (o
digitalizzabile) su cui costruire business model alternativi, con impatti spesso
devastanti per le imprese incumbent.”
(dalla mia prefazione alla versione italiana del libro “Big Bang Disruption. Strategy in the Age of Devastating Innovation” di
Lawrence Downes e Paul Nunes, 2013)

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Every business is a technology business.
Whether it’s taxi cabs or taco delivery, today’s enterprises are urgently
figuring out ways to manage the growth of information technology
and to turn its disruptive potential to their advantage. Algorithms direct
our doctors and instruct our farmers. They will increasingly guide nearly every
function in the modern enterprise...
(The Wall Street Journal, 16 febbraio 2015, nel ribattezzare “Business & Tech.” una sua importante sezione)
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The smartphone is the defining technology of the age
Like the book, the clock and the internal combustion engine before it,
the smartphone is changing the way people relate to each other and the world
around them
There are 2 billion people around the world using smartphones. By the end of
the decade that number looks set to double to just over 4 billion.
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The Economist - Feb 28th 2015

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LA DISRUPTION E’ ORIGINATA DALLE FUNZIONALITA’
PRESENTI NEGLI SMARTPHONE
La disruption non nasce necessariamente da attacchi intenzionali.
Sono funzionalità presenti negli smartphone, indispensabili per il funzionamento o
introdotte per ragioni concorrenziali, che li pongono involontariamente in
competizione con prodotti concepiti viceversa ad hoc per svolgere funzioni precise:
non solo telefonare e inviare messaggi, ma anche misurare il tempo, fotografare e
filmare, registrare le conversazioni, orientare negli spostamenti.
Una competizione impropria, perché spesso mette a disposizione prestazioni simili a
costo zero.

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PRODOTTI NATIVAMENTE DIGITALI O DIVENUTI TALI
VIDEOGIOCHI, MUSICA, TV E FILM

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Gli smartphone e i tablet rubano spazio
ai lettori di musica digitale come l’iPod e
lo streaming prende il posto del download
WSJ - June 8, 2015
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Sfumano i confini fra operatori televisivi, operatori
telecom e operatori OTT-Over The Top nella
distribuzione dei film e dei programmi televisivi
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TV e film: il formato diventa digitale

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Alcune OTT - in particolare Netflix e Amazon - sono entrate con
successo anche nella produzione di programmi televisivi.
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CONVIVENZA FORMATI: GIORNALI E LIBRI

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Calano drasticamente le vendite del “cartaceo” e cala drasticamente la
pubblicità, facendo entrare in crisi anche giornali come il NYT.
“Mai così tanti lettori come ora (Ferruccio De Bortoli)”, ma mai così pochi soldi.
Violente ristrutturazioni, come quella di RCS
Chiusura di moltissime edicole, un terzo delle esistenti negli ultimi anni a Milano.
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WSJ - June 25, 2015
GLI OTT SARANNO I NUOVI SUPER-EDITORI?
Will established newspaper and magazine brands be helped or hindered
by link-up with Apple and Facebook?
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E-COMMERCE [BENI MATERIALI]

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DIVERSI I BUSINESS MODEL
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Sempre più determinante per la competitività sembra essere
diventato, a partire dagli US, il tempo di consegna.
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DIVERSE LE MODALITA’ DI CRESCITA NEI PAESI
SVILUPPATI O IN FASE DI SVILUPPO
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Online Shopping Tops Stores on
Black Friday Weekend
More people shopped online than in stores
during the Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend.
Online shopping surged as more retailers offered the same promotions online.
Consumers spent an estimated $4.45 billion online,
more than half from mobile phones.
WSJ - Nov 29, 2015

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Gap is Open to Selling on Amazon
Gap, which has long shunned tie-up, is largely focused on selling jeans, khakis and
button-downs through a fleet of more than 3,500 stores and its own websites.
Amazon is now the second-largest apparel seller in the US, behind Wal-Mart Stores.
WSJ - May 18, 2016

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SHARING ECONOMY
l’accesso invece del possesso

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Il primo business model ricalca quelli tipici ad esempio del rent a car.
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Nel car sharing l’operatore che mette a disposizione le auto è proprietario delle auto
stesse: il gruppo Daimler delle Smart (prodotte in casa) utilizzate per il servizio Car2Go.
È un business model cioè che richiede
investimenti anche consistenti in asset fisici.
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Nel secondo business model - Airbnb e Uber gli interpreti più famosi -
l’operatore che mette a disposizione i beni non è proprietario dei beni
stessi, ma gestisce una piattaforma di scambio
fra chi possiede il bene e chi vuole disporne temporaneamente.
L’operatore cioè non investe in asset fisici,
ma crea la piattaforma
e deve attirare nella stessa sia chi mette a disposizione i beni sia chi ne fruisce.
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“City Hall should find a way to better balance housing and tourism,
Airbnb has completely changed the market.”
WSJ – June 25, 2015
AIRBNB
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UBER
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Warren attacks Uber as talk over Clinton running mate heats up
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Elizabeth Warren, a leftwing senator,
attacked the ride-sharing company
for undermining workers’ economic security,
thereby raising the question of whether she was trying to boost her
chances of being picked by Hillary Clinton as her vice-presidential
candidate.

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FINANZA

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The digital revolution sweeping through the banking sector is set to
wipe out almost two-thirds of earnings on some financial
products as new technology companies drive down prices and
erode lenders’ profit margins.
FT – September 30, 2015 McKinsey warns banks face wipeout in some financial services

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PAGAMENTI E TRASFERIMENTI DI DANARO
GESTIONE DEL RISPARMIO E BANCHE ONLINE
P2P LENDING
MARKETPLACE LENDING
CREDITWORTHINESS
CROWDFUNDING
ROBO-ADVISOR
BROKERAGE
HIGH-SPEED TRADING

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JPMorgan plans lending venture with OnDeck Capital
JPMorgan Chase is tying up with OnDeck Capital, one of the biggest of the
specialist online lenders, in a blurring of the boundaries
between the old and new worlds of finance.
JPMorgan said it would break into online lending by signing an agreement with
OnDeck, a New York-listed lender to small businesses that has grown rapidly
since inception in 2007.
It will offer loans to customers among its roughly 4m small-business
accounts using OnDeck’s platform, which promises almost real-time
approvals and same, or next-day funding.
FT – December 1, 2015

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FT – August 30, 2015
China Rapid Finance, one of China’s largest P2P lending sites, rated 50m
Chinese consumers for creditworthiness using social networking and computer
gaming data and arranged 3m P2P loans in the six months since its partnership
with Tencent.
The data, provided by Tencent, are processed using an algorithm that looks at
frequency and amount of time spent using Tencent services (WeChat …).
The criteria may seem unusual but Internet user behaviour is sufficient to
establish reliable creditworthiness.
Moreover the 80 per cent of Chinese have no credit history or access to credit.

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The acquisition of US robo-adviser FutureAdvisor from BlackRock, world’s
largest asset manager and largest ETF provider, is a potentially huge deal for
the wealth management industry. Fund managers, banks, brokers and
financial advisers all face threats to their business models from robo-advisers,
which provide automated online investment services.
BlackRock plans to use FutureAdvisor to partner with banks, insurance
companies, broker-dealers and financial advisers to help them sell robo-advice.
Robo-advisers mostly allocate client funds to low-cost ETFs or index
funds.
FT – September 20, 2015 Robo-advisers mark ‘seismic’ shift in wealth management

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FT – Oct. 10, 2016
INSURTECH: THE FUTURE OF INSURANCE
The combined power of cloud computing and advanced data analytics is
being harnessed to help insurers hone their modelling skills
to better manage risk, cut costs and improve efficiencies

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Insurtech might not be as well financed as fintech – it received around
$2.6bn in investment in 2015 against some $19.7bn for fintech – but it is quietly
making a big impact in the areas where it is used.

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The power of the analytics as well as the capacity of the cloud are
set to transform the insurance industry.
The cloud can store all the data and deliver the computing power required to
crunch and analyse it on demand and fast; the analytics can look for patterns,
run models and test scenarios.

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“It’s unbelievably difficult to calculate all the values needed [Solvency 2], to
analyse and report quickly. What we deliver is a tremendous benefit.
The heart of insurance is deploying the law of large numbers to
manage risk effectively.
The more relevant numbers that can be taken into account, the better, more
accurate the risk calculation.”

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The Big Four professional services firms - among the largest employers of
graduates globally - are drastically rethinking their hiring practices as
technology transforms the way companies are audited.
As parts of the audit process are automated, and firms embrace artificial intelligence,
much of the mundane administrative work often given to entry-level employees is
being eliminated.
This has led to predictions of a significant fall in graduate recruitment at some of
the biggest auditors.
FT – May 9, 2016
Technology transforms Big Four hiring practices

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The legal profession tries to automate the mundane tasks that have traditionally
been the preserve of junior lawyers.
Intelligent search systems could now outperform junior lawyers and paralegals
in reviewing large sets of documents and selecting the most relevant.
A recent study by Deloitte suggested that a 39 per cent of jobs were
at “high risk” of being made redundant by machines in the next two decades.
There has been speculation that law is ripe for “Uberisation”,
becoming the next target of technological disruption.
FT – May 16, 2016
Legal firms unleash office automatons

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SANITA’ SCUOLA UNIVERSITA’..

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L’AUTO ELETTRICA
SHARED MOBILITY
CONNETTIVITA’ , INFOTAINMENT
DRIVER-ASSISTANCE FEATURES
SELF-DRIVING CAR
L’EFFETTO «PUNTERUOLO ROSSO»
LA FILIERA A VALLE
IL MANUFACTURING E LA FILIERA A MONTE

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Disruptive trends that will transform the auto industry
McKinsey & Company Home - Report January 2016
Digitization, increasing automation, and new business models have revolutionized
other industries, and automotive will be no exception. These forces are giving rise to
four disruptive technology-driven trends in the automotive sector: diverse
mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity.

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The type of city will become the most relevant segmentation
dimension that determines mobility behavior and, thus, the
speed and scope of the automotive revolution, replacing the
traditional regional perspective on the mobility market.
By 2030, the car market in New York will likely have much
more in common with the market in Shanghai than with that of
Kansas.

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C’è il rischio che anche le grandi dell’auto subiscano l’effetto
“punteruolo rosso”, lo stesso che colpì IBM quando crebbe il peso
nei PC dei microprocessori di Intel e del software di Microsoft?

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Il peso assunto dal software nel controllo dell’auto è d’altronde apparso in
tutta la sua ampiezza con il defeat device di VW.
L’elettronica nel suo complesso – software e hardware (sensori e
attuatori) – ha un peso che si sta approssimando al 50 per cento.

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LA NUOVA FRONTIERA: IL MANUFACTURING

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INDUSTRY 4.0
Industrial Cloud Computing
Industrial Big Data Analytics
Industrial IoT
Advanced Robotics
Human Machine Interface
Additive Manufacturing

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I grandi motori del cambiamento
l’enorme sofisticazione del software, sempre più in grado di trattare
grandi masse di dati - big data - e di apprendere con l’AI-artificial
intelligence
lo sviluppo di sensori e attuatori più potenti e sempre meno costosi

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I grandi motori del cambiamento
l’accelerazione della crescita nella robotica e nella stampa 3-D,
che integrano software, sensori e attuatori
la possibilità, estendendo con l’IoT l’interconnessione alle cose, di effettuare
controlli e comandi a distanza e di far parlare le cose fra loro

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La disruption, in questa nuova fase, appare destinata a
riguardare non solo settori – quali in primis l’auto e la sanità - e
imprese, ma anche e forse soprattutto le risorse umane

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SMART-WORKING
CO-WORKING

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L’OCCUPAZIONE

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Google chairman, Eric Schmidt, has warned that
the jobs problem will be "the defining one"
for the next two-three decades
“More and more middle class workers will lose their jobs”

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Innovation has always cost people their jobs ..
Although innovation kills some jobs, it creates new and better ones .. but
for workers the dislocating effects of technology
may make themselves evident faster than its benefits.
Even if new jobs and wonderful products emerge,
in the short term income gaps will widen,
causing huge social dislocation and perhaps even changing politics.
The Economist - JAN. 14, 2014
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FT - OCTOBER 10, 2016
World’s ‘gig economy’ larger than thought
McKinsey Global Institute report says a third of those working independently do
so as last resort

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Between 20 and 30 per cent of people in the US and Europe are working
independently in the so-called “gig economy” (“on-demand economy”) according
to a new study that counts moonlighters as well as full-timers.
The survey of 8,000 working-age adults suggests that the phenomenon of independent
work — at least on the definition the researchers have chosen — is more widespread
than official data suggest.
It also finds that while most people are happy to be “gigging”, a substantial
minority of about 30 per cent are doing it as a last resort.

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McKinsey’s researchers defined “independent workers” as people who chose when
to work, had multiple employers and could move between jobs fluidly.
The researchers included people on temporary contracts of less than a year, so long as they
were not “permatemps” who were effectively working like employees but on rolling short-
term contracts.
Not everyone will agree with this definition. Temp agencies, in particular, are privately
furious when people lump them into definitions of the “gig economy”, since they usually
employ the temps themselves and provide them with employee rights and benefits.

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The study split the independent workers into four segments:
- 30 per cent were “free agents” who actively choose independent work and derived
their primary income it;
- 40 per cent were “casual earners” who used independent work to top up their
income by choice;
- 14 per cent were “reluctants” who made their living from independent work but
would prefer traditional jobs, and
- 16 per cent were “financially strapped” and topping up their incomes out of
necessity.
“Although the reluctants and the financially strapped together constitute a minority of
independent earners, the magnitude of the problem is still striking”.

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WSJ - Oct 7, 2016
Competing Against ‘Digital Invaders’

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New technologies and rapidly changing markets have altered the competitive
landscape, with companies facing challenges from adjacent industries as
well as so-called digital invaders, either tech giants or startups
unencumbered by legacy infrastructures.
IBM’s Institute for Business Value conducted a study last year aimed at identifying
the key disruptive trends that will likely impact companies around the
world over the next three to five years, as well as what their senior executives
are doing to better prepare their organizations for the expected disruptions. The
study surveyed over 5,200 CEOs, CFOs, CIOs, CMOs and other C-suite executives
across 21 industries in over 70 countries.

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116
The IBM study asked CxOs to rank their companies based on their innovation
reputation and their financial performance over the previous three years.
It identified 5% of companies as Torchbearers, the name given to those
companies enjoying both a strong innovation reputation and an excellent financial
track record.
At the other end of the spectrum, 34% of enterprises were identified as
Market Followers or laggards in both innovation and financial performance.
The report organized its findings and recommendations into three main areas:
Preparing for digital invaders; Creating a panoramic perspective; and Be first, be
best or be nowhere.

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117
Industry convergence was found to be the overriding concern of most senior
executives. Competition can come from different directions, from newly formed or
adjacent industries and digital invaders with totally different business models:
giants with highly sophisticated platforms, like Google, Amazon and Alibaba, or
focused, agile startups. The invaders typically target profitable areas of the value
chain, often looking to seize control of the customer relationship and relegate
incumbents to less profitable back-end support services.
Most senior executives anticipate that they must transform the way they
engage with customers, including more digital and personalized interactions.
More than half agree that innovation increasingly comes through collaborations
with external ecosystem partners.

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118
Senior executives generally agree that cloud computing, mobile solutions and
the Internet of Things will be particularly important technologies over the next
few years.
Overall, “it’s the confluence of different technologies that holds the
greatest promise,” such as the combination of AI-based smart products and
advances in bioengineering to improve healthcare, or new cloud-based business
models combining mobility and data sharing.
The majority of senior executives, irrespective of role, think IT security is the
top risk.” As more things are connected, security is rising to the top of
the agenda.

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Torchbearers are more forward-looking about exploring the opportunities in
related industries. They understand that they compete as part of a bigger
ecosystem of interdependent entities, which greatly enhances their potential
impact on the market.
Torchbearers are braver about investing in emerging technologies with high
risks and returns, and more aware of the need to preserve their
competitive advantage and scale their expertise.
Torchbearers are more agile, more willing to experiment and more confident
about taking the lead. Once they’ve developed a new product, service or business
model, they recognize the pace at which technology is evolving and the
importance of dominating the market before their competitors do.

@umbertobertele
In Europa un mix di invidia, irritazione e preoccupazione
L’Europa, quasi assente dal mondo Internet, teme fortemente - Germania
in testa - che la disruption si estenda e vada a toccare i suoi settori di forza: a
partire dall’automobile e da tutta la filiera a monte, che vede anche una rilevante
presenza italiana.
Sembra purtroppo più orientata ad atteggiamenti punitivi verso le imprese
US, che non a creare essa stessa – a differenza della Cina - nuovi «Airbus»
in grado di competere nel mondo.
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DESI 2016 - Ranking of EU countries
DESI 2016 is based mostly on data from 2015
Country scores range between a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1
DIGITAL SINGLE MARKET
Digital Economy and Society Index

@umbertobertele
The EU performing digital in 2016:
– EU score has improved (0.52 vs. 0.50 in
2015), but EU progress slowed down
– Improvement mostly driven by
Connectivity and Integration of Digital
Technology by businesses
– Developments in Online Public Services
and Human Capital have all but
stagnated this year
Clustering of countries:
– Running ahead: perform above EU and
growing faster than the EU
– Lagging ahead: perform above EU, but
growing slower than the EU
– Catching up: perform below EU but
growing faster than the EU
– Falling behind: perform below EU and
growing slower than the EU
Performance by country
DIGITAL SINGLE MARKET
Digital Economy and Society Index

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«CAVALCARE» IL CAMBIAMENTO

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